How People Voted

The Election of 2008

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives

• Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do and how this changes over time.

• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.

SES AND GROUP FACTORSA Long Term Factor

Group Voting

• What makes a group important?

• The Democrats think more in group terms

Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008

• African Americans

• Latinos

• Young Voters

• Highly educated voters

RACE AND ETHNICITY

African American vote in 2008

• Compared to 2004

– Higher Turnout– More Democratic

• Why African Americans Were Important

Hispanic Voters

• The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity

• Increasingly Democratic since 2000

• Key in CO, FL, NM

Race and Vote in 2008

AGEA Long Term Factor

Young Voters in 2008

• 2-1 For Obama

• Why

• What about other Age Groups

Age and Vote 2008

EDUCATIONSES Long Term Factor

Education in 2008

• A curvilinear relationship

• Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum

Education and Vote

RELIGION

Identification vs. Behavior

• Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice

• Religious activity is a much better predictor

Church Attendance and Vote

Who you are

• Jewish voters

• Catholics

Vote By Religion- 2008

GENDER

Gender and Marriage

• The Gender Gap

• Why?

Gender in 2008

Marriage

• Married People vote Republican

• Singles vote Democratic

Marital Status

Decline of Security Moms

PARTISANSHIPStill the biggest factor in vote choice

Party Identification

• A perpetual screen

• More important in recent years

• Still the Best Predictor

There are more Democrats in 2008

• The Long primary

• Generational/ Regional Replacement

• Mobilizing African American Voters

2008 Vote by Party ID

What about Independents

• Pure Independents vs. Leaners

• Independents go for Obama

Timing of the vote

Short Term Factors

Issues, Candidates & Image

Candidate Evaluations vs. Issues

ISSUESShort Term Factor 1

Most Important Issues

ECONOMIC ISSUESThe Big One

The Economy

• The events of 9/14

Economics

Economics

Economics

The War in Iraq

• No longer the salient Issue of the election

• Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds

• Obama could claim opposition from day 1

Iraq

Health Care

• Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)

Energy Policy

• One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin

• Never panned out as an issue

• Cheap oil throughout the fall

Drilling

Terrorism

Immigration

• No One cared

• Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue

CANDIDATE EVALUATIONSShort Term Factor

Hope and Change

• A message that worked

• It meant everything and nothing at the same time

Hope as a message

Change

McCain- Old and Out of Touch

PARTY IMAGE

The Republican Brand

The Third Term

Retrospective voting on Bush

• Bush is Unpopular

McCain Vs. Bush

• In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush

• In reality no way to distance himself from Bush