HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA · HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA ....

HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: CALIFORNIA

Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

July 2014

National Trends

Composition of distressed sales by geography

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions May 2014

13% 11% 9% 7% 11%

8% 4% 5% 5% 5%

13% 12%

12% 13%

8%

8%

7%

12% 10% 5%

6% 6%

5% 6% 3%

4% 9%

3% 4%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%Short Sale

Move-In Ready REO

Damaged REO

Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—May 2014 3 Month Moving Average

Perc

ent o

f Buy

-Sid

e Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties


20%

39% 30%

50% 25%

45%

33%

36% 55%

15%

36%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

DamagedREO

Move-In ReadyREO

Short Sale Non-Distressed

Investor

First-TimeHomebuyerCurrentHomeowner

Perc

ent

of P

rope

rty

Type

Who Is Buying Properties?─May 2014 3 Month Moving Average

Financing for home purchases


25% 11%

72% 14% 38%

2%

23% 19%

7%

8% 8%

30% 24% 19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors

All Other Financing

VA

Fannie/Freddie

FHA

Cash

Perc

ent

of B

uyer

-Sid

e Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Financing for Homebuyers─May 2014 3 Month Moving Average

California Trends

California’s unemployment rate trending down but still above national average (7.6% May 2014)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Recession

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%)

United States

California

California house prices back on the rise

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

130

170

210

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)

California

United States

Northern California house prices still rising


FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

130

170

210

250

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FHFA House Price Index: Northern California (2000 = 100)

Oakland

Sacramento

San Francisco

Central Valley house prices trending up


FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index: Central California (2000 = 100, quarterly)

Stockton

Fresno

Visalia

Merced


FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

Southern California house prices trending up

90

130

170

210

250

290

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

FHFA House Price Index: Southern California (2000 = 100, quarterly)

San Diego

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

Ventura

Number of delinquent mortgages and properties entering foreclosure process continues to fall

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Num

ber

of M

ortg

ages

Delinquent Mortgages and Foreclosure Starts - California

Foreclosure Starts All Mortgages Past Due

New housing starts slowly trending up

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

New

Hou

sing

Uni

ts (

in th

ousa

nds)

New Housing Starts - California (Quarterly)

Source: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

LA rents up: $1,499 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 3%

0%

3%

6%

$1,320

$1,380

$1,440

$1,500

$1,560

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Los Angeles Quarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Inland Empire rents up: $1,104 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 2.6%

0%

3%

6%

9%

$960

$1,000

$1,040

$1,080

$1,120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Vacancy Rate

Ask

ing

Rent

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Bernardino/Riverside Quarterly



SF rents up: $2,171 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 2.9%

0%

3%

6%

$1,600

$1,700

$1,800

$1,900

$2,000

$2,100

$2,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in San Francisco Quarterly



Fresno rents up: $842 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate at 2.8%

0%

4%

8%

$770

$800

$830

$860

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Fresno Quarterly



Sacramento rents up: $983 for Q1 2014, vacancy rate down to 2.8%

0%

3%

6%

9%

$875

$900

$925

$950

$975

$1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Sacramento Quarterly



State & Local Data Maps

California Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures May 2014

California Data Maps

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014


Bay Area Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics



Bay Area Data Maps


Areas At Risk of Additional Foreclosures May 2014


Sacramento Data Maps




Central California Data Maps




Central Coast Data Maps




LA Metro Data Maps




Inland Empire Data Maps




San Diego Data Maps




Conclusions

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