Montana Labor Trends
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Montana Labor Trends Bureau of Business and Economic Research Annual Economic Outlook - Helena January 29, 2013 Barbara Wagner Chief Economist [email protected]
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Montana Labor Trends. Bureau of Business and Economic Research Annual Economic Outlook - Helena January 29, 2013 Barbara Wagner Chief Economist [email protected]. Montana and U.S. Unemployment Rate. U.S. Montana Recession. 5.7%. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Montana Labor Trends
Montana Labor Trends
Bureau of Business and Economic ResearchAnnual Economic Outlook - Helena
January 29, 2013
Barbara WagnerChief Economist
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
7.8%
Montana and U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from MT DLI and the Current Population Survey from BLS
5.7%
U.S.MontanaRecession
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 22007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Montana Payroll Employment and Wage Growth over Prior Year
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Montana Department of Labor and Industry (MT DLI), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Wages Employment
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 22007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Montana Payroll Employment and Wage Growth over Prior Year
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Montana Department of Labor and Industry (MT DLI), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
Wages Employment
Official Recession
Start
Bear Sterns
Collapse
Official Recession
End
Stock Market Crash
First Greek Bailout
Montana Average Annual Wages
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* $27,000
$28,000
$29,000
$30,000
$31,000
$32,000
$33,000
$34,000
$35,000
$36,000
$37,000
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%GROWTHWAGE
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* $30,500
$31,000
$31,500
$32,000
$32,500
$33,000
$33,500
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Real Montana Average Annual Wages
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS, and MT DLI
WAGE GROWTH
Industry Employment and Job ChangeRecession (2008 Q2 to 2010 Q2) and Recovery (2010 Q2 to 2012 Q2)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS and MT DLI, Data from 2nd Quarter 2008, 2010 and 2012
Other
N.R.
Bus. Serv.
2012 Unemployment Rates by Region
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, BLS and MT DLI. Preliminary data through Dec. 2012
Job Change by Region 2007 to 2012, Projected 2013-2020
Source: LAUS, BLS and MT DLI
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014-2020*
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Northwest
Southwest
North Central
South Central
Eastern
Montana’s American Indian Reservations, 2010 to 2011
Employment Growth
Wage Growth
2011 Average Annual Wage
2011 Unemployment
Rate
Blackfeet -8.4% 9.1% $35,097 16.6%
Crow -3.1% 2.8% 35,604 23.6%
Flathead -1.0% 2.5% 30,820 14.0%
Fort Belknap -5.2% 7.2% 42,558 14.9%
Fort Peck 1.0% 2.1% 31,440 11.1%
Northern Cheyenne -3.1% 5.3% 33,269 20.5%
Rocky Boy’s -2.6% 6.8% 42,206 15.6%
Average -2.4% 3.9% $33,117
Source: MT DLI Reservation Employment Estimates
Take Away Points
• Montana’s economy doing well despite challenges.– Unemployment headed down for 1.5 years.– Employment growth for two years.– Nearly all private industry has job growth.– All regions have job growth.– Real wage growth improving our standard of living.
• Remaining Challenges for our Future– Unemployment remains high in Northwest and in
Reservation Areas.
More Information atwww.ourfactsyourfuture.org
Barbara Wagner,Chief Economist
Montana Department of Labor and Industry406-444-5474
