ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS - Federal

ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS

Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

June 2012

National Trends

Composition of distressed sales by geography

12% 13%

23%

12% 15% 9%

17% 10%

17%

6%

10% 15%

13%

14% 14%

21%

16%

12%

13%

11%

35% 26%

18%

24% 20% 18% 14%

17% 5%

16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Short Sale

Move-In Ready REO

Damaged REO

Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—April 2012

Perc

ent o

f To

tal T

rans

actio

ns

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012

Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties

18%

36% 32%

52% 22%

43%

36%

34% 61%

21%

33%

14%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Damaged REO

Move-In Ready REO

Short Sale Non-Distressed

Investor

First-Time Homebuyer

Current Homeowner

Perc

ent

of P

rope

rty T

ype

Who Is Buying Properties?─April 2012


Financing for home purchases

31%

10%

78% 19%

53%

3%

19%

13%

4%

5%

7%

26% 17% 15%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors

All Other Financing

VA

Fannie/Freddie

FHA

Cash

Perc

ent

of B

uyer

-Sid

e Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Financing for Homebuyers─April 2012


Arizona Trends

Arizona’s unemployment rate keeping pace with US; down to 8.2 percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Recession

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%)

United States

Arizona

Arizona house prices down to 2003 levels

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

140

190

240

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)

United States

Arizona

House prices continued downward trend in many metropolitan areas; little change in Phoenix-Mesa

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000 = 100)

Tucson

Yuma

Flagstaff

Phoenix-Mesa

Number of delinquent mortgages and properties in foreclosure process continues to fall

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Num

ber o

f M

ortg

ages

Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due

Consumer debt delinquency down from 2010 peak

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate

U.S.

Arizona

Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel

Asking rent has increased as vacancy rate falls in Phoenix

0%

5%

10%

15%

$710

$740

$770

$800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Phoenix Quarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Tucson rents up; vacancies down

0%

6%

12%

$610

$640

$670

$700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Tucson Quarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Arizona Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012

Arizona Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas At Risk Of Additional Foreclosures April 2012

Arizona Data Maps


Phoenix Data Maps



Phoenix Data Maps

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012


Oregon Data Maps Tucson Area Data Maps



Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012

Tucson Area Data Maps


Conclusions

For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website

Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies

All publications, presentations available on our website

Conference materials also posted shortly after events

http://www.frbsf.org/community/

http://www.frbsf.org/community/�

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ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS - Federal

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