ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS · House prices improving in most major metros Source:...
Transcript of ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS · House prices improving in most major metros Source:...
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ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS
Community Development ResearchFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
June 2013
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National Trends
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7%11%
16%
8%
15%
8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
12%
10%
15%
9%
10%
8%15% 13%
3%7%
22% 19%
8%
19%7%
12%6%
5%
13% 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Short Sale
Move-In Ready REO
Damaged REO
Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—April 20133 Month Moving Average
Perc
ento
f Tot
al T
rans
actio
ns
Composition of distressed sales by geography
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013
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Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013
18%
33% 29%
50%19%
48%
35%
37%63%
18%
35%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
DamagedREO
Move-In ReadyREO
Short Sale Non-Distressed
Current Homeowner First-Time Homebuyer Investor
Perc
ent
of P
rope
rty
Type
Who Is Buying Properties?─April 20133 Month Moving Average
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Financing for home purchases
Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013
26%
11%
76%18% 47%
2%
22%
14%
6%
5%7%
29%21%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors
All Other Financing
VA
Fannie/Freddie
FHA
Cash
Perc
ent
of B
uyer
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
Financing for Homebuyers ─ April 20133 Month Moving Average
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Arizona Trends
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Arizona’s unemployment rate slightly higher than U.S. at 7.9 percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Recession
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(%)
United States
Arizona
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Arizona house prices continue to rise
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x20
00=
100
90
140
190
240
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)
United States
Arizona
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House prices improving in most major metros
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
FHFA
Hou
se P
rice
Inde
x20
00=
100
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index(2000 = 100)
Tucson
Yuma
Flagstaff
Phoenix-Mesa
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Number of delinquent mortgages and properties in foreclosure process continues to fall
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Num
ber
of M
ortg
ages
Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due
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AZ consumer debt delinquency rate above U.S. average
0%
4%
8%
12%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate
U.S.
Arizona
Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel
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Asking rent continues to increase as vacancy rate falls in Phoenix
0%
5%
10%
15%
$710
$740
$770
$800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Vacancy RateA
skin
g Re
nt
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in PhoenixQuarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
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Tucson rents up; vacancy rate stable around 6%
0%
6%
12%
$610
$640
$670
$700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Vacancy Rate
Ask
ing
Rent
Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in TucsonQuarterly
Asking Rent Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.
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Arizona Data Maps
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Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresApril 2013
Arizona Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
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Areas At Risk Of Additional ForeclosuresApril 2013
Arizona Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
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Phoenix Data Maps
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresApril 2013
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
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Phoenix Data Maps
Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresApril 2013
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
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Oregon Data MapsTucson Area Data Maps
Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresApril 2013
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
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Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresApril 2013
Tucson Area Data Maps
Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
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Conclusions
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For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website
Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies
All publications, presentations available on our website
Conference materials also posted shortly after events
http://www.frbsf.org/community/