Housing Trends Report

Second Quarter 2018

The Housing Trends Report (HTR)measures prospective home buyers’perceptions about the availability andaffordability of homes for-sale in theirmarkets.

All data are derived from national pollsof representative samples of Americanadults conducted for NAHB by MorningConsult. This report will be releasedquarterly to track changes in buyers’perceptions over time.

Planning to Buy Home Within 12 Months

14% of respondents are prospective home buyers, i.e. they are planning to buy a

home within 12 months. In Qtr4’17, that share stood at 24%.

24%

17%14%

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

This report is based entirely on prospective home buyers: those planning to buy a home within the next 12 months.

22%

14%

8%

3%

Millennials Gen X Boomers Seniors

In Qtr2’18, Millennials are significantly more likely than any

other generation to report planning a home purchase in the

next year (22%). Qtr2’18

Share Who are First-time Home Buyers

Most (61%) prospective home buyers are first-time buyers, back

to the same level as in Qtr4’17 (60%).

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

60%

45%

61%

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

In Qtr2’18, 77% of Millennials planning a home purchase within

a year are 1st time buyers.

77%

49%

34%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Qtr2’18

Only 21% Are Looking to Buy a Newly Built Home

• 39% of prospective home buyers in Qtr2’18 say they are looking for an existing home

• 21% are looking for a newly built home• 40% are looking at both.

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

Around 40% of each generation is looking for an existing home. Only 20%-24% are considering a newly

built home.

39%

21%

40%

Existing home Newly builthome

Either New orExisting

20%24%

21%

38%41%

38%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

New Existing

Qtr2’18

Most Don’t Expect House Search to Get Easier

Only 20% of prospective home buyers expect that finding the ‘right’ home will become easier in the months ahead, up slightly from 15% in Qtr1’18.

69% expect the search to become harder or stay about the same, just below the 73% in Qtr1’18.

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

27%

65%

15%

73%

20%

69%

Easier Harder / About the same

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

Share expecting search to get easier in the months ahead is below 25%

across each generation.

22%18% 17%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Qtr2’18

Most Don’t See Improvement in Inventory

Most prospective home buyers (63%) report seeing ‘fewer’ or ‘same number’ of homes for-sale (with desired features and price point) than 3 months

earlier.

Only 29% report seeing ‘more’ such homes available for-sale.

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

More than 60% of each generation report ‘fewer’ or ‘the same’ number of homes for-sale (with right features and

price) vs. 3 months earlier.

34%

58%

24%

64%

29%

63%

More homes Fewer or about the samehomes

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

61% 62% 65%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Qtr2’18

Only a Minority Can Afford the Majority of Homes For-Sale

Only 22% of prospective buyers say they can afford half or more of the homes for-sale in

their markets, up slightly from 17% in Qtr1’18.

77% can afford fewer than half the homes available, down from 83% in Qtr1’18.

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

80% of Millennials can afford < 50% of the homes available in their

markets. The share remains high across generations.

79%

21%

83%

17%

77%

22%

Can afford fewer than 1/2the homes for-sale

Can afford 1/2 or more ofthe homes for-sale

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

80%74% 73%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Qtr2’18

Many Aren’t Merely Planning a Home Purchase; They Are Actively Looking for One

49% of prospective buyers say they are already actively trying to find a

home to buy (and not just planning it), up from 42% in Qtr1’18 (but still below

the 67% in Qtr4’17).

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

About half of Millennials and Gen X’ers planning to buy a home within 12 months are already active in the

search.

67%

42%49%

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

51% 49% 46%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Qtr2’18

Most Active Buyers Have Been Looking for 3+ Months

53% of those already actively looking for a home have been searching for 3+ months, essentially unchanged from the 51% who reported looking for that long in Qtr1’18.

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

59% of Gen X buyers actively searching for a home have

been looking for 3+ months, just like 53% of Millennials and

48% of Boomers.

38%

62%

49% 51%47%

53%

< 3 months 3 months or more

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

53%59%

48%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Qtr2’18

If Unable to Buy Home in 3+ months, Why?

Top 2 reasons holdingbuyers back:

• Inability to find a home with desired features (45%).

• Inability to find affordable home (43%).

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

Across generations, the inability to find a home with desired features

is the reason at least 40% of buyers looking for 3+ months haven’t

pulled the trigger.

42%34% 36%

27%

53%43% 39%

16%

43% 41% 45%

24%

Can't find a home at aprice I can afford

Can't find a home in theneigborhood I want

Can't find home withfeatures I want

Continue to get outbidwhenever I make an

offer

Qtr4'17 Qtr1'18 Qtr2'18

46%40%

47%

Millennials Gen X Boomers

Qtr2’18

Most Likely Next Steps If Still Unable to Find Home in Months Ahead

If still unable to find a home in the next few months, most buyers (55%) say they will continue looking for the ‘right’ home

in the same preferred location.

Only 16% will give up trying.

Source: NAHB national consumer polls, conducted by Morning Consult.

16%

19%

24%

34%

55%

Give up trying to find a homeuntil next year or later

Buy a more expensive homethan origianlly intended

Accept a smaller/older homethan originally intended

Expand my search area

Continue looking until the ‘right’ home opens up in a

preferred location

Most likely next steps among Millennials:• 54% will continue looking in same area• 36% will expand search area• 26% will accept a smaller/older home• 23% will buy a more expensive home• 19% will give up Qtr2’18

Poll Design

• The Housing Trends Report is based on quarterly polls conducted for NAHB by the research firm Morning Consult.

• Polls are based on a national sample of adults selected to proportionately represent the US adult population in terms of age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, and income.

• Table below shows sample size and dates of data collection.

Qtr4’17 Qtr1’18 Qtr2’18

Sample size 2,800 11,674 15,412

Collection Period November 16-19, 2017

March 28 – April 1, 2018

June 26 – July 8, 2018