From Dystopia to Plutopia

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by Derek Woodgate Plutopia is a new futures-oriented initiative that typifies the entrepreneurial creativity that Austin is famous for. This presentation will give an experiential flavor of what Plutopia is all about, as well as an insider's view of SXSW 2010. Derek Woodgate is the Founder and CEO of The Futures Lab, Inc. as well as Co-Founder and Chief Creative Officer of Plutopia, Inc.

Transcript of From Dystopia to Plutopia

  • 1.Framing the Future: Dystopian ThinkingDerek Woodgate PREPARED FOR CENTEXWFS MARCH, 2010 From Dystopia to Plutopia

2. Fear of the future

  • Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren(CMI, 2007)
  • Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education.
  • 911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover

3. The fear factor

  • World population should stabilize at about 12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion people in 2100 from 6.5 billion today
  • Increasing need for water - billion cubics in 1995, 3300 B in in 2020
  • World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in 1970 to 25 T Kcal
  • Decreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years - gone in next 50 (?)
  • Lack of equity amongst social groups
  • Number of known terrorist organizations: 154

FEAR! 4. The fear factor

  • By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern Report)
  • Environmental refugees forecast to rise from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute)
  • By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk from severe water shortages and drought
  • Climate-related disease risks of the various health outcomes assessed by WHO will more than double by 2030. Global warming could contribute to more than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses annually by 2030 (World Health Organization and the University of Wisconsin at Madison)
  • Heat related deaths in California could more than double by 2100
  • By 2080, Climate change could bring major water shortages for over a Billion in Asia / South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn people globally
  • The World Bank estimates thatdemand for foodwill rise by 50 percent by 2030, as a result of growing world population, rising affluence, and the shift to Western dietary preferences by a larger middle class
  • -

FEAR! 5. Challenges & Concerns

  • The Transformation of Humankind
  • Resource Scarcity
  • Environment & Climate
  • Security and Rights
  • Conflicts & Terrorism
  • Disease and Pandemics
  • Natural disasters
  • Population Explosion
  • Economic meltdown

Framing the challenge 6. From Fear to Fulfillment The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This fear has always been surging in the hearts and minds of man. The unknown has always threatened the ego with self doubt and produces restlessness, anxiety and insomnia. It is resolve your negativity and fulfill your dreams and desires? important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self doubt around issues of your future. Will it be the foundation of your future? Or will you transform it's energy into new power to augment your future?Michael Patrick Bovenes Now is the time to choose The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.From Gordon L. Andersons chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso,Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994). 7. How to present Dystopias as a platform for fertile innovation

  • The future never stops
  • An opportunity to create a world-beating, headline grabbing first
  • Make external conditions fit your goals
  • Accelerates self-confidence / sense of purpose and extends success
  • Delivers a think the unthinkable mentality
  • Helps dispel festering fears and despondency
  • Taking evasive and preemptive action drives attachment awareness and positive anticipation -Take back control

8. Creating Positive Anticipation

  • Positive anticipation starts with awareness and is then supplemented with a whole range of human dynamics, which give the knowledge purpose, social and cultural context, intention and a sense of time and place.
  • Certainly, consciousness plays a part, Different levels of the Self, Wilbers Great Nest - The Four quadrants (I, we, it, its), Integral Psychology mapping, Howard Gardener streams and waves in his work on multiple intelligences.

Clients are frequently fearful of talking about dystopias even when approached as an opportunity builder 9. Understanding the value of a dystopia You must have chaos within you to create a dancing star. -Frederic Nietzsche 10. Create a new vision and context for the dystopia

  • Subvert assumptions
  • Peel away the surface experience the outcome it is rarely an adventure
  • Revisit values and signifiers
  • Fracture, impact points and disruption
  • Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids
  • Change perspective and conceptual relevance
  • Add events and potential wildcards

11. Framing dystopias and wildcards 12. One mans magic is another mans engineering. -Robert Heinlein 13. Framing the challenge Fears and Challenges Transformation of HumankindConflicts & Terrorism Natural disasters Disease and Pandemics Resource Scarcity Security and Rights Economic meltdown Population explosion Resource Scarcity Sustainability 14. Wide-angled lens - Sustainability 15. Framing the sustainability-related dystopias and developments 16. Framing the sustainability-related dystopias and developments 17. Creating future leverage pointsExample 18. Leveraging sustainability-related dystopias -- Richard Branson For too long, environmentally-friendly technology and issues about the environment have been seen as a corporate social responsibility issue and not an opportunity to create new wealth in the future. Governments alone cannot solve the problems we face unless the capitalist world invests in a sustainable future. 19. Leveraging the sustainability-related dystopias

  • Transportation and the environment, resource-management, changing lifestyles, urban-migration, etc
  • Client:FIAT Group, (Global)
  • Agriculture, population growth, resource management, food and water shortages, new farmers, etc
  • Client: New Holland (Global)
  • Urban planning, environment, population growth, resource management, architecture, waste, community, health, etc
  • Client: Bright

20. 21. Fiat Case Study 22. 23. 24. Italian Soul Simple Solutions Discovery Eco The Hero Inside Mastering Complexity Simple, ingenuous Greater power, less weight, persuasive safety attributes New entries, strategic partnerships, smart manufacturing New power train simple refueling and services, even parkingThe car that brings out the Warrior against the odds Seamless Fluid lines, flow- part of meFlexible architecture thats a mobile office, home and transporter Central to the future mobility system new business models -From cradle to cradle total recycling Keeps me driving my way Immersion A sense of culture and history The hub in an annotated environment The car as entertainment experience Car through bio-mimicry The authentic me howI would like to be the fully integrated me Belonging The resilience of following your own path Leverages the power of social networks Makes me part of a tribe peerSafeguarding my kids future The do the right thing car Self gratification Cheeky and fun likeability Car takes the trauma out living The car that delights every day gives me fun From Big is beautiful to Small is cool The car which pampers me The Next Redefining balance playing with volumes The car bridges the innovation chasm Augmenting the human The urban car compact, space & low consumption Honour, respect and self attainment Bigger me The car thatconnects me to flair and power Wellness- de-stress,, rejuvenation The car that knows me better than I know myself cognitive feedback My personal contribution to society The Altruist The car that makes me a better/ safer driver - Upskilling Exploration Freedom of spirit Expresses my progressiveness The pioneering car celebrating excellence Lessons from space and air The Magician shape shifting, transform interiors Personalise A sense of style and romanticism Lifestyle transformer enables me to do the inconceivable The car that anticipates my mood Contributing my way -the modular MPV Living the story and re writing personal narrative Sharing 21 stcentury female connectivity Access vs. ownership The network car The Communicator Interior / exterior The car that joins with others to save the planet Peer collaborative design input 25. Futures knowledge base

  • MARKETPLACE FORCES
  • Fuel costs travel reduction
  • Growth in HEV
  • Search for alternative fuelsGrowing potential with over 50s - high expectations/spend
  • Role of non-automotive companies - partnerships
  • Steep demand growth in Latin America, Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe overall power of BRICs
  • Cheap cars from India and China
  • Stretching of luxury
  • New vehicle nomenclatures
  • New business models (sharing, personalization, battery leasing
  • Japan micro car market
  • Growing percentage of car is electronics
  • Growth in battery leasing
  • Smart coupes and cabriolets
  • NEW TECHNOLOGIES
  • Intelligent vehicles
  • Advanced GPS / mobile / in-car
  • New powertrains / HEV, Electric
  • Proactive - Collision avoidance
  • Advanced communications networks
  • RFIDs / Bio-metrics
  • Sensory networks
  • Alternative fuels air, water, waste
  • Reactive / smart seats
  • Mood& health enhancing
  • Lighter weight vehicles
  • New interfaces Voice interfaces
  • Interchangeable modules
  • Semi-autonomous agents info
  • OLEDs Lighting projection
  • Enhanced vision technologies
  • Cognitive monitoring & feedback
  • Proactive haptics
  • AI / robotics / Ambient intelligence
  • Nanotech bio fuel cells
  • Future batteries, electric / hybrid
  • New materials
  • Shape-shifting& personalized skins
  • Modular design and construction rapid prototyping

DISRUPTORS AND UNCERTAINTIES Fuel prices reach $10 (Euro 10) per gallonFuel cells arrive early Toyota Mature economies crash and have very negative impact on BRICs $2500 car becomes highly successful Environmental legislation even tougher Detroit companies disappear Development of unexpected fuel: air, water, waste Launching of highly successful electric car

  • FUTURE CONSUMER
  • TRENDS
  • Seamlessness digital connectivity
  • Modular living
  • Immersion (escapism & disconnection
  • Unplugged living
  • Life enrichment / experience collecting /playfulness and fantasy
  • Belonging and sharing
  • Transparency and integrity
  • Self gratification / being remarkable
  • In the know The Next Premium mindset
  • Bigger Me self extension
  • Exploration
  • New partnerships

26. Futures knowledge base

  • QUANTIFIABLE
  • TRENDS
  • Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units.
  • Major global investments in fuel cell tech
  • of around 12% during 2008-2015.
  • China will add 33 Million automobiles during 2008-2010.Growth in touch screens 6 million units
  • . Shipments of hard drives for in-car digital systems are expected to reach 16.6 million units by 2013, nearly five times the 3.5 million in 2006,
  • By 2020 they expect the proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop to 45% while diesel powered cars will increase to18% of the passenger car market. The hybrid penetration predicted to increase to 27%
  • CRITICAL SOCIAL INFLUENCES
  • Energy usage
  • Fuel costs
  • Environmentalconcerns eco cities
  • Emissions legislation
  • Traffic congestion
  • Technology convergence
  • Economicpolicies, financing and costs
  • Overall globalpopulation growth
  • Importance of Boomers and echo-boomers
  • Smaller families
  • Shorter and fewer journeys
  • Redefinition of luxury includes tech more sophisticated consumers
  • People getting bigger and taller in developed countries
  • Changing meaning of celebrity
  • Globalization
  • EMERGING LIFESTYLE CHANGES
  • Consumers have increasing access to product and other info
  • Mobility and ubiquitous connectivity
  • Movement to cities / higherdensityi.e. smaller, efficientvehicles
  • Telecommuting, working longer or more active retirement
  • Expect on-demand, personalized and flexible / reconfigurable vehicles
  • 50+ consumers will continue to want to lead the lifestyle they always had - less likely to change image / identity with aging
  • Multiple identities, changing archetypes, redefined lifestages
  • Desire for mass design
  • Open source design peer colaboration
  • Desire for access to multiple vehicles

PANEL / EXPERT OUTPUT SUMMARY Cradle to cradle (recycling) and environmental issues New business models and players i.e. Virgin, Google, etc. peer design will be massive and peer recommendations will dictate Connectivity car as a hub with a mesh network Electric simple, less complex, reductionist, easy to navigate, park and use Modular, Lego-style with rentable add-ons (what are your needs for this weekend?) Smartness know me, augment my capabilities, help me do the right thing. Protect me Well-being and health Advanced infotainment systems Adaptive systems, sensors, feedback Robot cars, AI, Nano input Urban migration 27. Knowledge clustering to create triggers 28. Trigger One: Eco/Urban the community me Eco / Urban- the community me Hybrid path drop spark ignitiion gasoline powered Major investments in fuel cell technologies nano-bio advancesRobots & Ai to adapt to driving styles and improve fuel efficiencies.Company transparency brand credibility The advantage of hybrids over non- hybrid powertrains is significantly more pronounced in urban and "sensible" versus highway and "aggressive "driving patterns.Continuing increase in fuel prices Access / sharing Fuel efficient downsized engines, battery life improvements Household waste & air driven vehicles Auto-pilot -reduce congestion Lighter weight vehicles Economics few trips, esp. shopping increase on-line Alignment with green thinking & considered as highly innovative Environmental legislation Fuel and environmental concerns New urbanist movement Cradle to cradle 95% of vehicle weight recyclable by 2015 Improved maneuverability, auto-pilot parking Bigger Me 29. Future triggers Make me a better driver, safer and more competent Smaller, more space, more power and advanced featuresPersonalizedLuxury, sensoryenhancement,Experiencecollecting, Lower costs ,enviro-friendly, , ease of getting around Seamless connectivity,, freedom & independence Feeling atmy best inbody,mind & soul Exciting design at affordable prices Eco / urban Smaller is bigger The status of luxury Healthy interiors Infotainment Upskilling Design within reach Major growth in hybrids and electric The hybrid penetration is predicted to increase to 27 % by 2020.. Cradle to Cradle Holistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health Environment Cost efficiencies Solar roofs, variable transmission or manual/automatic transmissions, batteries, lightNanotech design & Lighter weight, smaller engines - new materials *carbon fiber, titanium, graphene enhanced plasticsReconfigurable space Reconfigurable instrument panel offering 3+1 person seating in a comfortable space. This rotational instrument panel extends to provide a rotary table Shape shiftingmaterials and architectures elements that retract and expand Luxury by segmentstech upgradable for creatives; classy comfort for boomers Personalizing our vehicles a palette for self-expression, life changing:The My Lounge interior concept defines a new way of consuming and selling cars. With the aspect of personalization as the overall theme,Mood monitoring, feedback & adaptive environments Context-aware technologies that can read the drivers current state (i.eanalyse pitch of voice, volume and intonation, to build a picture of driver emotion ) and change the sensory environment accordingly (i.e relax driver when under stress). Biofeedback blood pressure, HR, breathing rhythm Transformation of data processing /feedback The emergence of real-time, speech recognition, 3D visualization, ambient displays, leveraging the supercomputing powers enabled by abundant computing. Wimax, MiFI ( Dedicated Short Range Seamless Communications).Mobile entertainment Remote vehicle diagnostics, compelling and less expensive telemetrics services, highly advanced automotive safety systems, and remote audio and video downloads into the vehicle. Haptic feedback Holistic models of health DNA links to environmental impacts on health Environment Extending human capacity: awareness, cognitive technologies (memory mental) Factory-installed car navigation systems in the U.S. and Europe should increase gradually to 30 percent by 2012, reaching an annual volume of more than 10 million units. Using new technologies and materials to reduce costs and deliver exciting designs with flair Nanotech design (better fuel efficient, more durable and lighter- New materials carbon fibres & composites & nanotech for nanocoatings & self-cleaning plastics, etc.Advanced surface coating applications that could enhance paint adhesion, appearance and durability; Wiperless windshields;Ultra-light synthetic polymers, plastic.andcarbon fibre. 30. STAGE THREE FUTUREMAPPING Oiling the triggersto create a concept platform 31. STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING Oiling the triggers - Concept engineering

  • A new tool kit
  • Mutate
  • Rethink
  • Spin
  • Migrate
  • Transform
  • Simulate
  • Displace
  • Fuse
  • Translate

32. Future Automotive LandscapeEuropean EV market estimated to roll out more than 250,000 vehiclesE.U. fuel economy - equivalent of 43 miles per U.S. gallon Lithium-ion battery technology R&D increase to $5 billion (from $1 billion in 2008) OLED/ warning signage introduced in vehicles Interactive 3D screens delivering entertainment and information Electronics demand from Ultra Low Cost Car $10,000, is expected to reach $8.2 billion by 2015 25%of Japanese households powered by fuel cells Sweden aims to achieve a complete oil-free economy Proportion of spark ignition gasoline powered passenger vehicles to drop to 45 % of market China to overtake the US as the largest single vehicle market Nano-size electronics inside active contact lenses receives media and entertainment Fuel cell cars mass marketed India; 16-percent per year growth in light vehicle production Premium segment predicted to grow to 3 million in US and 3.5 million in Western Europe City Transport Cell (CTC) reconfigurable vehicles All-electric plug in vehicles a reality Consumers expect comprehensive and integrated transportation service and car relative to need Commercial operations of the SwissRapide Express - using Maglev technology US: cars require fuel-efficiency standard of 35.7 miles/gal (15km/litre) Up to 5% of conventional lights replaced by OLEDs (Western oucntries Home energy station enable drivers to fill up their cars at home 14% of vehicles fittedwith brandedpremium soundfeatures (double 2007 figure Market for display based entertainment systems, (OE and aftermarket) reaches $5.9B OE and aftermarket -advanced wireless technologies for equipped systems reaches $1.9B Market for multimedia and communications systems worth US$27B 18.2m parking assistance systems fitted in to newly-registered cars Data filtering and behavior agents2018 2016 2017 2019 2015 2014 By 2015, experts predict nanomaterials will reach 70% usage in automotive applications (fuel efficiencies, lighter & durable) 33. STAGE THREE FUTUREMAPPING Refining the concept platform 34. STAGE THREE - FUTUREMAPPING Opportunity hacking

  • White spaces
  • Black holes
  • Hidden worlds
  • Missing colors
  • Unusual perspectives
  • Reversed focus
  • Paradoxes & hybrids
  • Reapply the wildcards
  • To Stretch the thinking paradigm
  • To Expand the thinking paradigm
  • To Crack the thinking paradigm

35. STAGE FOUR:FUTURESCAPINGRe-contextualizing platforms

  • Implicate not replicate
  • Integrates disparate areas
  • Higher order properties
  • The platform as an event
  • Dimensions not units
  • Human-centric

36. STAGE FOUR/FIVE FUTUREMAPPING/FUTURETUNING Creating and evaluating the future scenarios

  • For confidentiality reasons, I cannot show the outputs or finally selected / developed preferred futures and action plan. We created 11 future concepts, which we worked on with 30 key personnel from FIAT for 2 days.

We selected 4 preferred futures, which were evaluated and taken through design, prototyping and market opportunity study. 37. Bright Green Austin is a network of sustainability activists Austin Energy's green power program is #1 in the nation in sale and taking the lead in developing a forward-thinking Plug-in Hybrid electric Vehicle (PHEV) strategy!

  • Reduced pollution
  • Resource consumption
  • Health (tackling obesity,exercise, zoning, brain)
  • Stress reduction (improved aesthetics, culture, greening)
  • Community and contribution

100 MW of solar facilities by 202030% of our electric supply from renewable generation sources by 2020. 38. The city as data

  • Sensor playgrounds - simulation
  • Leveraging real-time data to utilize emerging behaviors in space
  • Responsive, kinetic architecture CO2 detection
  • Zero waste and improved resource utilization
  • Open source streets & annotated environments

39. My city, my body

  • Biological interactions and biomapping
  • Bio identities and communities
  • Cognitive feedback
  • Organic dwellings
  • Urban play - DIY

40. Community design

  • Resilient communities
  • Ability to withstand systemic shocks
  • Generate value and income
  • Smart grids, microgrids supporting local food production
  • City as a laboratory
  • The slow city movement (Cittaslow) anti-standardization
  • Networked co-working
  • Future City and Sim City

41. Sustainable material thinking

  • Pollution resistant coatings
  • Nanomembranes fresh water facility and virtual water
  • Printable solar cells
  • From carbon nano-tubes to polymer scaffolding
  • Media architecture
  • Interactive facades
  • Buildings as city lighting
  • Self-analyzing and healing

42. Beyond density building

  • Urban farming - vertical
  • Marine habitats
  • Spin farming
  • Permaculture edible landscapes
  • Green roofs, hydroponic and container farming
  • Nanoarchitecture smart greenhouses
  • Invisible buildings - metamaterials

43. Expanding our network / community

  • Masdar City - DubaiZero waste, zero carbon
  • New Songdo City (West Seoul) tech testbed
  • Nano City, India Collaborative communities
  • Dongtan Eco city
  • Fibercity, Tokyo spatial fibers

Consulting for the future of New Orleans 44. A call to action

  • "Its a failure of imagination to think that climate change is going to be an escape from jail and its a failure in a couple of ways.Kim Stanley Robinson
  • 1.Total systems failure
  • 2. Limits to growthfailure of restraint and thelikely cause of mini collapses.
  • The continuing need for sophisticated technology and alternative design are critical, but continue to be a burden.
  • Create the desired future vs. Complexity theory
  • -Working beyond emergence, simulated patterns and visible connectionsthe rhizomatic approach looking for the rhythms in between the lines.
  • ,

45. The power and persuasiveness of the arts Artists change minds primarily by introducing new ideas, skills, and practices. They make use of an array of diverse mental representations that infect our minds. Howard Gardner Changing Minds 46. Plutopia Experience the FutureBill McKinnon Best selling author sustainable economics Bruce Sterling Sci Fi writer DJ Spooky Author, Professor, Composer, Experimentalist Stanza Interactive, generative, DNA-based artist Hipnautica Technology-inspired music Green Grover Multi-media artist (Green Visions) Natasha Vita More- Transhumanist Adam Zaretsky Bio artist Chris Jordan Social commentator / artist Sandy Stone academic theorist, artist performer The Robot Group We only hire eco-friendly venues New trend: Temple (San Fran.), Surya (London) Greenhouse (New York), Watt (Rotterdam) 47. Plutopia 2010 48. Your thoughts create your future.-Stephen Knapp. Philosopher