Future Flow Derek Woodgate

PREPARED FOR

NOVEMBER, 2010

From Dystopia to Plutopia

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Discontinuous change

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"The future is not fixed, but it is a destination that can be reached if we pursue a sustained dialogue like the one that you will commence today, and act on what we hear and what we learn.”  - Barack Hussein Obama II, President of the United States of America

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Fear of the future

Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren (CMI, 2007)

Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education….

911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover…

2010

2006

4

America’s third world

The number of Americans who see themselves among the "have-nots" of society has doubled over the past two decades, from 17% in 1988 to 34% today.

U.S. Government Says one in six (45 Million) Americans Below Poverty Sept. 2010

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Facing your fears

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“The greatest obstacle we encounter with stress and anxiety is the fear of the future. This fear has always been surging in the hearts and minds of man… It is important to decide what you are going to do with your fear and self-doubt around issues of your future. Will it be the foundation of your future? Or will you transform its energy into new power to augment a future that can resolve your negativity and fulfil your dreams and desires?“

- Michael Patrick Bovenes

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-World population should stabilize at about

12.4 billion in 2035 or 14 billion people in

2100 from 6.5 billion today

- Increasing need for water - billion cubics in

1995, 3300 B in in 2020

- World cereals demand - 6 Trillion Kcal in

1970 to 25 T Kcal

- Decreasing sea thickness; 40% in 40 years -

gone in next 50 (?)

- Lack of equity amongst social groups

- Number of known terrorist organizations:

154

The fear factor

FEAR!

By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought (The Stern Report) Environmental refugees forecast to rise from 30M in 2004 to 50M in 2010 and 150M by 2050 (Worldwatch Insititute) By 2080, 3.5 billion people will be at risk from severe water shortages and drought

Global warming could contribute to more than 300,000 deaths and 10 million illnesses annually by 2030 (World Health Organization and the University of Wisconsin at Madison)   By 2080, Climate change could bring major water shortages for over a Billion in Asia / South America and threaten 1.1Bn to 3.2Bn people globally

The World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 percent by 2030,  

FEAR!

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What a difference a decade makes!!!!

“Now is the time to choose – The present trends in the United States show that the pessimistic scenario is rapidly upon us unless we soon shift our educational priorities and cultural goals. The optimistic scenario is completely realizable if such changes are made now. The window of opportunity is in the decade of the 1990s. If we do not choose, our children may not be able to have such choice.”

From Gordon L. Anderson’s chapter The United States in 2044 (page 251), The World of 2044 – Technological Development and the Future of Society, edited by Charles Sheffield, Marcelo Alonso, Morton A. Kaplan (PWPA, 1994).

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Future Flow 2010

Future Flow is about creating a path towards our anticipation for a positive future. The book deals with creating the future we want and expect in a world where our media and frequently even our realities enslave our minds with visions of impending doom.

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Economic meltdown

Lack of equality amongst social groups / poverty

Climate change, Resource scarcity and sustainability

Terrorism and Wars

Emerging technologies (cloning, bioengineering, etc.)

Population explosion and aging

Food supply

Natural disasters

Epidemics

Ethics

Immigration & migration

Education

Health

Social disruption

Transformation of humankind

High impact Challenges and concerns

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Stairway to Heaven

For every challenge there seems to be a solution:

Nanotech for energy efficiencies

Fuel cells and renewable energy

Human augmentation, cognition and upskilling

Graphene replacing chips / neuro / quantum computing

Photovoltaics and eco cities

Alternative habitats

Food substitution and virtual water

Data walls and complex networked communities

Even transhumanism and the Singularity

Then, there is the other reality….

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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?

“Dr. Doom” - Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital in 2006:

- “too much consumption and borrowing and not enough production and savings…economy 70 percent consumption, you can’t address those imbalances without a recession.”

- from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008, Americans lost $6.9 trillion in wealth in the stock markets. Gravest economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Greed is seen to have been at the centre of the storm. Greed, supported by slack regulation that had its origin in excesses in the U.S. housing and mortgage markets

- toxic loans and foreclosures.

- collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market

- 10% unemployment (projected 8% in 2014)

- $13 trillion debt (Public debt to GDP debt ratio)

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Economic Meltdown: What the hell happened?

Dynamism has been in decline for a decade - we just did not notice (due to housing bubble)

Stifling patent system

Quarterly results focus vs. long-term value creation Financial system averse to funding business innovation

Edmund Phelps and Leo Tilman (Harvard Business Review)

Top 1% of Americans saw their real income rise 700% between 1980 and 2007 while the real income of the median family increased only 22%.

Top executives received 440 times as much as the average person in the bottom half earned, nearly doubling the gap from 1980.

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Economic Meltdown: What the Hell Happened?

Austin - the third most recession proof city in the U.S. The Brookings Institute analyzes the health of America’s 100 largest metropolitan economies, or is it?

The Great recession is over

Markets aren’t efficient

W-Shaped Recovery

Bank Lending Won't Come Back soon

Dollar Decline

Inflation Will Be Controlled

Uncertainty Will Create Volatility

High unemployment to stay

For every one-percentage-point increase in the national unemployment rate, the starting income of new graduates fell by as much as 7 percent. – Lisa Kahn, Yale

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What’s in a Dream?

Back Britain – IMF bail-out

The Revolutions of 1968

16 years under communism in Ex-Yugoslavia

The break-up of states

The dot-com boom and bust

The US economic meltdown

“The Chinese Dream”

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So what about the American Dream?

Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness?

Redefine our social values

Community vs. the individual

Eradicate U.S. ”third world”

Real cost of sustainability

Reconsider “hyper capitalism”

Social projects

Rediscover the intangibles

Leverage “American” skills in entrepreneurship

Look for unique innovation

Avoid protectionism

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Understanding the value of a dystopia

“You must have chaos within you to create a

dancing star.”

- Frederic Nietzsche

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Shift from a Dystopia to Plutopia

Subvert assumptions

Peel away the surface – experience the outcome Revisit values and signifiers Play with fracture, impact points and disruption

Reconstruct the dystopian reality, paradoxes, hybrids

Change perspective and conceptual relevance

Add events and potential wildcards

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Create you own Plutopia

It’s not about predicting the future,

but creating it.