Economic indicators report: Industry & Development

ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT: INDUSTRY & DEVELOPMENT

UPDATED QUARTERLY

Current as at 30.06.2020

Presented by ECONOMY & PROSPERITY

ISAAC.QLD.GOV.AU Economic indicators report: Industry & Development – 30.06.2020 02

ECONOMIC PROFILE


ISAAC REGION ECONOMIC PROFILE

FIGURE 1. SUMMARY

(Source: REMPLAN Economy)

FIGURE 2. GSP/GRP COMPARISON



FIGURE 3. OUTPUT


FIGURE 4. VALUE ADD



FIGURE 5. REGIONAL EXPORTS


FIGURE 6. REGIONAL IMPORTS


FIGURE 7. JOBS



ECONOMIC DRIVERS/KEY

PROPULSIVE SECTORS


KEY PROPULSIVE SECTORS REPORT

These industry sectors (in descending order from most significant) re the key drivers of the Isaac Region’s economy in terms of regional exports, employment, value-added and local expenditure on goods and services (backward linkages).

DEFINITIONS

Value-Added - represents the marginal economic value that is added by each industry sector in a defined region. Value-Added is calculated by subtracting local expenditure and expenditure on regional imports from the output generated by an industry sector. Value-Added by industry sector is the major element in the calculation of Gross Regional Product.

Employment - the key social outcome of economy development; employment data represents the number of people employed by businesses / organisations in each of the industry sectors in the Isaac (R) Region.

Regional Exports - represents the value of goods and services exported outside of the Isaac (R) Region that have been generated by local businesses / organisations. Another way of defining exports is as an inflow of money into the region, i.e. Motels have an inflow of money from people who live outside the region’s boundaries thus they are earning export equivalent dollars.

Backward Linkages - details the industry sectors which spend the most on locally sourced intermediate goods and services per dollar of output. These industry sectors may not necessarily make the largest contributions to the Region’s economy at present however due to well developed local supply chains these sectors have a significant capacity to deliver

FIGURE 8. ISAAC REGION KEY PROPULSIVE SECTORS

Industry Sectors Backward Linkages

Exports Employment Value-Added Total

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 4

Mining 3

Construction 3

Manufacturing 2


ECONOMIC OVERVIEW OF INDUSTRY SECTORS

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING (AGRIBUSINESS)

The Agribusiness sector contributes $308.653 million (and accounts for 2.2%) of the region’s total output. The sector is

the region’s second highest industry employer supporting 1,160 jobs (5.4%). The agribusiness industry sector sells

$36.561 million to local industry sectors as intermediate inputs into production and for further value-adding.

The total value of local sales for an industry sector relative to exports provides insights into the degree to which the

industry is dependent on local demand versus demand from outside the region. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is the

region’s third largest regional exporter ($256.098 million versus $36.56 million in local sales) and as such, Isaac’s

agribusiness sector is highly dependent on external demand.

Local Expenditure data represents the value of intermediate goods and services purchased by local industry sectors

within the region. A high level of local expenditure on intermediate goods and services proportionate to total output is

indicative of a well-developed local supply chain. In this instance, Isaac’s Agribusiness sector supply chain is quite well

developed, so any expansion in this sector would typically deliver broad based benefits for the region’s economy.



FIGURE 9. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW - AGRICULTURE


MINING

The Isaac is a resource rich region spanning a large portion of the Bowen and Galilee Basins. It’s home to 26 active

coal mines, with further significant mining projects under development and gas exploration in the early stages. Isaac

region produces more than half (54%) of Queensland’s saleable coal, with the majority being world-class metallurgical

coal. Isaac’s mining sector also contributes $1.5 billion of Queensland’s royalties out of a total $3.8 billion (39.5%).

The Isaac economy is largely driven by the resources sector, which contributes $11.131 billion (or 79.3%) to the

region’s total output. The sector is the highest performer across output, employment, local sales, regional exports,

regional expenditure, and value added. The sector also imports the most of all industries.

Many of the goods and services imported from overseas are priced at a level making substitution with the local supply

unlikely and in instances, unfeasible. Imports from the rest of Australia (domestic imports) however, indicate

opportunities for import replacement, increased value adding and supply chain development. Supply of these goods

and services is currently feasible in the Australian context and provide a guide to realistic, high value strategic

opportunities to further develop the economy. A total of $5.181 billion in domestic goods and services are imported

from outside the region’s boundaries as inputs to the sector’s production process. This is significant economic leakage

that could be retained within the region through an improved supply chain.


FIGURE 10. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW - MINING


CONSTRUCTION

Construction services refer to businesses and organisations engaged in site preparation, trades, landscaping and the

hire of construction machinery. The construction services sector contributes $423.253 million accounting for 3% of the

region’s total output and supporting 848 local jobs.

The sector accounts for a significant share of the region’s local sales with $117.45 million (11.4%). Local expenditure

$62.49 million. Local sales relative to exports ($117.45M to $64.37M) reflects and industry sector which is highly

dependent on local demand compared to demand from outside of the region.


The Construction sector in Isaac domestically imports a total of $214.34 million in goods and services from outside the

region’s boundaries as inputs into the sector’s production process.


FIGURE 11. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – CONSTRUCTION


MANUFACTURING

The manufacturing sector contributes $610.564 million to total regional output, accounting for 4.3% of the region’s total

output and supporting 423 jobs (2% of the region’s total employment). This industry sector is selling $224.526 million of

goods and services to local industry for inputs into their production process which is a significant share of the region’s

local sales (14.5%). The manufacturing sector is also the second highest exporting industry sector in the region with

regional exports of $369.343 million (3.2% of total regional exports).

The manufacturing sector in Isaac imports a total of $417.132 million in goods and services from outside the region’s

boundaries as inputs to the sector’s production process. Many of the goods and services imported from overseas are

priced at a level making substitution with the local supply unlikely and in instances, unfeasible. Imports from the rest of

Australia (domestic imports) however, indicate opportunities for import replacement, increased value adding and supply

chain development. Supply of these goods and services is currently feasible in the Australian context and provide a

guide to realistic, high value strategic opportunities to further develop the economy. Domestic imports by the local

manufacturing sector totals $152.28 million.


FIGURE 12. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – MANUFACTURING


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BOWEN BASIN UPDATE –

RESOURCE OPERATIONS

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BOWEN BASIN UPDATE (2017-19) The Bowen Basin in Central Queensland contains most of the State’s high quality metallurgical (coking and pulverised coal injection) coal reserves, as well as significant deposits of thermal coal. At June 2018, there were 44 coal mining operations and two metalliferous mines located in the region, along with coal seam gas (CSG) operations and other resource industry related infrastructure. Two new coal mines in the Bowen Basin commenced operations during 2017–18. Byerwen mine, operated by Byerwen Coal, is a hard coking coal mine expected to produce up to 10 million tonnes (Mt) per year once fully operational (QCoal Group, 2017). Aurizon began hauling coal from the mine in January 2018 (Aurizon, 2018). Meteor Downs South mine, a partnership between U&D Coal Limited and Sojitz Coal Mining, will have a capacity of more than 1.5 Mt per annum and a mine life of approximately 10 years (U&D Coal Ltd, 2018). First coal was mined in April 2018 (Sojitz Coal Mining, 2018). Three coal mines resumed operations in 2017–18 after being placed in care and maintenance by previous owners. Broadlea mine, which ceased operations in 2009, was acquired by Fitzroy Australia Resources in 2016. Contractors began overburden removal at the mine in October 2017 (Fitzroy Australia Resources, 2017). Mining at Baralaba North (formerly known as Baralaba mine), now owned by Baralaba Coal Company, restarted in May 2018, and is expected to reach full production by the end of 2018 (NRW Holdings, 2018). Cook mine was recommissioned by its new owner, Bounty Mining, in January 2018 and the first shipment of export coal left the Port of Gladstone in late June (Bounty Mining Limited, 2018). One coal infrastructure project was under construction in Isaac (R) in June 2018. BHP’s Caval Ridge Southern Circuit Project, which will convey coal from Peak Downs mine to Caval Ridge mine for processing, was progressing according to plan (BHP, 2018c). Conveying of first coal was expected in October 2018 (BHP, 2018b). Six solar energy projects were also under construction across the region in June 2018: Collinsville Solar Photovoltaic Project (RATCH-Australia Corporation, 2018) and Daydream and Hayman Solar Farms (Edify Energy, 2018a; Edify Energy, 2018b) in Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only); Emerald Solar Park (Renewable Energy Systems, 2018) and Lilyvale Solar Farm (Fotowatio Renewable Ventures, 2017) in Central Highlands (R); and Clermont Solar Farm (WIRSOL Energy, 2018) and Rugby Run Solar Farm (Adani Australia, 2018) in Isaac (R). All solar projects are expected to be operational by the end of 2018. The non–resident population influences of these projects will be short lived, as ongoing operational workforces will be small and predominantly resident-based in contrast to their construction workforces. In addition to new and reopened coal mines an construction projects, activity in the Bowen Basin in 2017-18 was influenced by expanded production activities and planned maintenance at existing mining operations. In total, the size of the Bowen Basin’s coal industry workforce grew from around 29,600 persons in June 2017 to 35,000 persons in June 2018 – an increase of 5,400 persons or 18% (DNRM, 2018). Of these 35,000 workers, around 1,000 were engaged at new or reopened coal mines, with the majority at existing operations. Workforce growth over this period is consistent with record production reported across several operations and maintenance works and sustaining projects at a number of mines.

(Source: Anglo American, 2018; BHP, 2018a; DIIS, 2018b; DNRM, 2018; Mastermyne, 2018).

PLANNED AND OPERATING PROJECTS

FIGURE 13. RESOURCE OPERATIONS IN THE BOWEN BASIN

Category(a) Project / operation name Company name LGA

Active operations(b)

A Abbot Point Bulk Coal Adani Australia Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Baralaba North Baralaba Coal Company Banana (S)

A Blackwater BHP Central Highlands (R)

A Blair Athol TerraCom Isaac (R)

A Broadmeadow BHP Isaac (R)

A Byerwen Byerwen Coal Isaac (R)

A Callide Batchfire Resources Banana (S)

A Callide Power Station CS Energy Banana (S)

A Capcoal Surface Operations Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Carborough Downs Fitzroy Australia Resources Isaac (R)

A Caval Ridge BHP Isaac (R)

A Clermont Glencore Coal Isaac (R)

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A Collinsville Glencore Coal Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Cook Bounty Mining Central Highlands (R)

A Coppabella Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Coppabella Train Loadout Facility Pacific National Isaac (R)

A Cracow Gold Mine Evolution Mining Banana (S)

A Curragh Coronado Coal Central Highlands (R)

A Daunia BHP Isaac (R)

A Dawson Anglo American Banana (S)

A Ensham Ensham Resources Central Highlands (R)

A Foxleigh Middlemount South Isaac (R)

A GLNG Drilling and Completions GLNG(c) Banana (S), Central Highlands (R)

A GLNG Surat Operations and Gas Gathering GLNG(c) Banana (S), Central Highlands (R)

A Goonyella Riverside BHP Isaac (R)

A Grasstree Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Greater Meridian SeamGas Drilling and Completions WestSide Corporation Banana (S)

A Greater Meridian SeamGas Operations and Gas Gathering

WestSide Corporation Banana (S)

A Grosvenor Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Hail Creek Glencore Coal Isaac (R)

A Isaac Plains Complex Stanmore Coal Isaac (R)

A Jellinbah East Jellinbah Group Central Highlands (R)

A Jellinbah Plains Jellinbah Group Central Highlands (R)

A Kestrel Kestrel Coal Resources Central Highlands (R)

A Lake Vermont Jellinbah Group Isaac (R)

A Meteor Downs South Sojitz Coal Mining Central Highlands (R)

A Middlemount Middlemount Coal Isaac (R)

A Millennium Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Minerva Sojitz Coal Mining Central Highlands (R)

A Moorvale Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Moranbah Ammonium Nitrate Plant Incitec Pivot Isaac (R)

A Moranbah Gas Project Arrow Energy Isaac (R)

A Moranbah North Anglo American Isaac (R)

A Mt Carlton Gold Mine Evolution Mining Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only)

A Nebo Rail Maintenance Facility Pacific National Isaac (R)

A Newlands Glencore Coal Isaac (R)

A North Goonyella Peabody Energy Isaac (R)

A Oaky Creek Glencore Coal Central Highlands (R)

A Peak Downs BHP Isaac (R)

(a) The five categories include active operations, and projects grouped according to their status in the approvals process as at December 2018. See methodology (page 2) and caveats (page 12) for further details.

(b) Operations that are in care and maintenance or that have ceased production are not included in this list or in the projections. These include Crinum and Gregory in Central Highlands (R) and Broadlea, Newlands Underground and Norwich Park in Isaac (R).

(Source: Bowen and Galilee Basins non-resident population projections 2019-2025)

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PROPOSED AND UPDATED

PROJECTS WITHIN ISAAC

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FIGURE 14. PROPOSED AND UPDATED MAJOR PROJECTS WITHIN ISAAC LGA (AS AT 2019)

Project Proponent Location Status Coordinated project Peak Workforce Projected Start

Byerwen Coal Project (BCP)

QCoal Group 20 km west of Glenden

EIS approved with conditions July 2014 (SDPWO Act). Early works commenced 2017

Yes Construction – 350

Operation - 545

2017

Olive Downs Project

Pembroke 30km North East of Dysart, South of Moranbah

EIS approved with conditions

Yes Construction – 500 -700 Operations 480

(Note: Wilunga expansion proposed 2027)

Construction. 2019-20

Operations 2021

New Lenton Project (NLP)

New Hope Group Approximately65 km north-west of Nebo, 65 km north of Moranbah, and 20 km south of Glenden

Lapsed – an EIS was not received by the designated date of 27 June 2018. The proponent may recommence the process in the future.

No Construction -200

Operation - 300

Unknown/Lapsed

Red Hill Mining Lease Project (RHMLP)

BMA 20 km north of

Moranbah

EIS approved with conditions June 2015 (SDPWO Act) EIS assumed development from 2020

Yes Construction - 2,000

Operation - 1,500

2020-21

Saraji East Mining Lease Project

BMA Approximately 60 km south east of Moranbah and 30 kms north of Dysart

Final Terms of Reference has been issued, EIS in preparation

No Construction – 1,000

Operation - 500

Potentially Construction -2022

Operations - 2024

Carmichael Coal Mine and Rail Project (CCM&RP)

Adani Mining Pty ltd Approximately 160 km northwest of Clermont

EIS approved with conditions May 2014 (SDPWO Act). Early works commenced October 2017. Details of outstanding approvals and milestones reached provided 28th June 2019. Items C – F still to be completed

Yes Mine:

Construction - 1075

Operation 3800

Railway line:

Construction 1400)

Operation - 120

Unknown

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China Stone Coal Project (CSCP)

MacMines Austasia Pty Ltd Approximately 170 km northwest of Clermont

Approved with conditions Yes Construction -

3,892

Operation - 3,391

Unknown – it is proposed the proponent will utilise the North Galilee Basin Rail line in which is dependent on another project proponent.

Winchester South Project

Whitehaven Coal Approximately 30km south east of Moranbah

Draft terms of reference for EIS and comments being assessed

Yes Construction – 500

Operation – 450

Approximate construction 2021-2023

Isaac Downs Project

Stanmore IP South Pty Ltd Approximately 10km south east of Moranbah

Public notification of draft Terms of Reference

No Construction – 250

Operation - 300

Approximate construction 2021 (intend for operation mid 2021)

Other renewable energy projects

Project Proponent Location Status Proposed size Peak Workforce Projected Start

Blair Athol Solar Farm

TerraCom Ltd Blair Athol Coal Mine, Clermont vicinity

Proposed – once land is rehabilitated from mine

60MW Solar PV Unknown Unknown

Broadlea Solar Farm

Eco Energy World Broadlea Proposed (according to DNRM map)

90-100 MW Solar PV

Unknown Unknown

Broadsound Solar Farm

Broadsound Solar Farm Pty Ltd

Clarke Creek Approved with conditions (Dec 2017)

392 MW, Solar PV

Unknown Unknown

Clarke Creek Solar Farm

Pacific Hydro Clarke Creek Approved with conditions (Sept 2018); IRC approval Jan 2019

315 MW, Solar PV

Construction – 240

Operation - 6

Unknown

Clarke Creek Wind and Solar Farm

Lacour Energy Lotus Creek Approved with conditions (Feb 2018). IRC awaiting planning application for temporary camp

400 MW, Solar PV

800 MW, Wind


Operation – 20-25

Intended construction commencement 2019

Clermont Solar Farm (Phase one and Two)

WIRSOL Energy Clermont vicinity Under construction, Phase One complete, Proposed Phase Two

150 MW, Solar PV (constructed in two phases)

Unknown Construction of phase one complete, phase two to commence

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Dysart 2 Solar Farm

Renewable Energy Developments/Hanwha

17km NE of Dysart Approved (Nov 2017) 130-145 MW, Solar PV

Unknown Anticipated construction 2018, connection stage early 2019

Dysart Solar Energy Farm

Tilt Renewables 8km East of Dysart Approved (Nov 2017) 100 MW, Solar PV


Operation - 2

Unknown

Middlemount Sun Farm

SUSI Partners 1km East of Middlemount

Approved 26-34 MW, Solar PV

Unknown Unknown

Nebo Solar Farm

Tilt Renewables Nebo Proposed 80 MW, Solar PV Unknown Unknown

North Creek Solar Farm

Tilt Renewables Coppabella Approved with conditions (Aug 2018)

80MW, Solar PV Unknown Unknown

Rugby Run Solar Farm (Stages one and two)

Adani Renewables Moranbah Commissioned, Proposed Stage Two

65 MW, Solar PV (Approval for up to 300 MW)

Unknown Expected to be fully operational in first quarter, 2019

(Source: Isaac Regional Council – Internal Document)

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DNRME NATURAL RESOURCES INVENTORY

The Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy keep an inventory of all of Queensland’s natural resources

and how they are used. We have filtered this down to obtain specific data to the Isaac Region for each resource.

*Please note, there is a lag in the data provided due to the updating frequency.

RENEWABLE RESOURCES

FIGURE 15. COMMERCIAL PLANTS >1MW IN THE ISAAC REGION

(Source: DNRME Inventory - 2018)

FIGURE 16. ISAAC REGION RENEWABLE PRODUCTION CAPACITY


PETROLEUM & GAS

FIGURE 17. ISAAC REGION GAS & PETROLEUM EXPLORATION PERMITS


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THERMAL COAL

FIGURE 18. ISAAC REGION THERMAL COAL PRODUCTION


FIGURE 19. ISAAC REGION THERMAL COAL EXPLORATION


METALLURGICAL COAL

FIGURE 20. ISAAC REGION METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION


FIGURE 21. ISAAC REGION METALLURGICAL COAL EXPLORATION


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QUARRIES AND EXTRACTIVES (SAND, GRAVEL, ROCK, CLAY, SOIL)

FIGURE 22. TOTAL LOW-VALUE EXTRACTIVE PRODUCT RESOURCES


LAND

FIGURE 23. TOTAL LAND RESOURCES


VEGETATION

FIGURE 24. TOTAL VEGETATION RESOURCES


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BUILDING & PLUMBING

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BUILDING & PLUMBING

BUILDING AND PLUMBING APPLICATIONS

The following graph depicts the number of plumbing and building approvals issued throughout the Isaac region (both

internal and by private certifiers). Building and plumbing applications and approvals are an indicator for the level of

construction activity occurring in the region. They also indicate a level of consumer/investor confidence in the housing

market.

FIGURE 25. PLUMBING AND BUILDING APPROVALS IN ISAAC LGA

(Source: Isaac Regional Council 2019, refer to ECM Document 4710711 31/10/2019)

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100

150

200

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300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Plumbing and Building Approvals By Financial Year

Plumbing Building Private Certifier Yearly Total

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CATTLE SALES FIGURES

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CLERMONT SALEYARDS CATTLE SALE FIGURES

Figures from the Clermont Saleyards indicating the number of head of cattle (‘thruput’) per month, along with the total

revenue from each sale.

FIGURE 26. THRUPUT AND REVENUE FOR CATTLE SALES

(Source: Isaac Regional Council - Internal document)

FIGURE 27. ACCOMPANYING FIGURES WITH ABOVE GRAPH

Month Cattle Thruput (head) Revenue (dollars)

Dec-19 2416 $10,477

Jan-19 2519 $16,141

Feb-19 4602 $23,528

Mar-19 5605 $24,676

Apr-19 5605 $24,676

May-19 2929 $13,793

Jun-19 13485 $37,547

Jul-19 7014 $18,582

Aug-19 5508 $17,862

Sep-19 4573 $14,193

Oct-19 8395 $22,806

Nov-19 3032 $11,802

Dec-19 3612 $16,996

Jan-20 1781 $7641

Feb-20 1860 $13,255

Mar-20 8035 $43,551

Apr-20 8381 $35,208

May-20 12850 $54,706

(Source: Isaac Regional Council - Internal document)

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Clermont Saleyards Figures

Thruput (Head) Revenue ($)

Economic indicators report: Industry & Development

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