Commodity Research Report 14 March 2016 Ways2Capital

8/19/2019 Commodity Research Report 14 March 2016 Ways2Capital

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MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31 MAR 2016 108.60 107.60 106.60 105.60 104.60 103.50 102.50 101.50 100.50

COPPER 29 APR 2016 346 344 342 340 338 336 334 332 330

CRUDE OIL 18 MAR 2016 2650 2630 2615 2600 2585 2565 2550 2535 2520

GOLD 05 APR2016 29800 29700 29600 29500 29400 29300 29200 29100 29000

LEAD 31 MAR 2016 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121

NATURAL GAS 28 MAR 2016 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 119

NICKEL 31 MAR 2016 617 612 607 602 595 590 585 580 575

SILVER 05 MAY 2016 37800 37700 37600 37500 37400 37300 37200 37100 37000

ZINC 31 MAR 2016 125 124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31 MAR 2016 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96

COPPER 29 APR 2016 350 347 344 341 338 336 333 330 327

CRUDE OIL 18 MAR 2016 2690 2660 2630 2600 2570 2540 2510 2480 2450

GOLD 05 APR2016 30200 30000 29800 29600 29400 29300 29100 28900 28700

LEAD 31 MAR 2016 132 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116

NATURAL GAS 28 MAR 2016 130 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 114

NICKEL 31 MAR 2016 645 633 623 613 603 593 583 573 560

SILVER 05 MAY 2016 38600 38300 38000 37700 37400 37100 36800 36500 36200

ZINC 31 MAR 2016 128 126 124 122 120 118 116 114 112

Monday, 14 March 20



WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL GOLD APR BELOW 29370 TGT 29080 SL 29653

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY CRUDEOIL MAR ABOVE 2450 TGT 2550 SL 2348 - TGT ACHIVED.

SELL LEAD MAR BELOW 122.50 TGT 120 SL 124.50 - SL

FOREX DAILY LEVELS


USDINR 29 MAR 2016 67.90 67.80 67.70 67.60 67.50 67.40 67.30 67.20 67.10

GBPINR 29 MAR 2016 96.10 96 95.90 95.80 95.70 95.60 95.50 95.40 95.30

EURINR 29 MAR 2016 74.10 74 73.90 73.80 73.70 73.60 73.50 73.40 73.30

JPYINR 29 MAR 2016 59.85 59.75 59.65 59.55 59.40 59.30 59.20 59.10 59

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS


USDINR 29 MAR 2016 68.4

68.20 68 67.80 67.60 67.40 67.20 67 66.80

GBPINR 29 MAR 2016 96.7

96.50 96.20 96 95.80 95.60 95.40 95.20 95

EURINR 29 MAR 2016 74.6

74.40 74.20 74 73.80 73.60 73.40 73.20 73

JPYINR 29 MAR 2016 60.2

60 59.80 59.60 59.40 59.20 59 58.80 58.60

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY JPYINR MAR ABOVE 59.65 TGT 60.30 SL 59

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY USDINR MAR ABOVE 67.70 TGT 68.30 SL 67 - CLOSED AT 67.27

BUY EURINR MAR ABOVE 74 TGT 75 SL 73 - TGT ACHIVED.



NCDEX DAILY LEVELS


SYOREFIDR 19 FEB 2016 627 622 617 615 612 610 607 602 597

SYBEANIDR 19 FEB 2016 3835 3785 3735 3714 3685 3664 3635 3585 3535

RMSEED 20 APR 20165 4163 4098 4033 4009 3968 3944 3903 3838 3773

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 15865 15575 15285 15095 14995 14805 14705 14415 14125

CHANA 20 APR 2016 4641 4562 4483 4447 4404 4368 4325 4246 4167

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19 FEB 2016 638 629 620 616 611 607 602 593 584

SYBEANIDR 19 FEB 2016 4132 3983 3834 3763 3685 3614 3536 3387 3238

RMSEED 20 APR 2016 4368 4226 4084 4035 3942 3893 3800 3658 3516

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 17815 16800 15788 15346 14775 14330 13755 12745 11725

CHANA 20 APR 2016 4958 4760 4562 4486 4364 4288 4166 3968 3770

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

SELL REFSOYA APR BELOW 618 TGT 611 SL 626

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL

BUY CHANA APR ABOVE 4260 TGT 4350 SL 4150 - TGT ACHIVED.

BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 6700 TGT 6900 SL 6480 - TGT ACHIVED.



MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

Bullion

Gold prices approached near 13 months high in the early morning trade today after rallying 1.22% inyesterday’s trade at COMEX. The prices recovered their intra day losses yesterday after the Euro recovered

sharply against the dollar post the comments from the ECB president that there might not be any further rat

cuts. Earlier it lowered deposit rates by 10 basis points to -0.4 percent and expanding its asset purchasin

programme to 80 billion Euros per month to avoid another recession. The programme will run until at leas

March 2017. The US dollar index tumbled to a month’s low of 95.94 overnight. SPDR Gold Trust, the world'

largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, said its holdings rose to 25.68 million ounces on Thursday, th

highest since August 2014.

Investors continued to remain bearish on gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as they pulled out around Rs 800

crore from the instrument during the first 11 months of the current fiscal. As things stand now, FY16 will marthe third consecutive financial year of outflow from gold ETFs. The pace of outflow, however, slowed down in

2015-16 as against the preceding two years on account of sluggish equity market, experts said.Gold ETF

witnessed a net outflow of Rs 798 crore in the first 11 months (April-February) of the ongoing fiscal compared

to an outflow of Rs 1,364 crore during the same period of 2014-15 fiscal. These funds witnessed outflow of R

1,475 crore in entire 2014-15 and a withdrawal of Rs 2,293 crore in 2013-14. However, the asset base of gold

funds marginally increased to Rs 6,672 crore in February 2016 from Rs 6,665 crore at the end of March 2015

The mutual fund sector has 14 gold-based schemes, which have been in the market since 2006-07. The demand

for gold ETFs has been steadily falling in the past few years. These products have seen outflow as gold price

are correcting and equities have given good returns to investors. Retail investors have been putting in mormoney into equity and debt mutual funds during April-February. Equity and equity-linked saving schemes saw

an infusion of Rs 75,394 crore and debt funds attracted about Rs 20,000 crore. Overall, mutual fund scheme

have witnessed an inflow of Rs 2.07 lakh crore during the period under review.

In 2016, the allure for the yellow metal as an asset class is back, as spot gold prices in the international market

have risen 18 per cent and comex gold has increased 18.5 per cent. On the MCX, gold prices have gone up

18.7 per cent. Spot gold prices (Ahmadabad) have also gained 18 per cent in the same time frame. Fall i

global equities, inflows into bullion funds, weak dollar index and concerns over financial instability have been

important factors for the recent rise. Besides, the metal has been helped by speculation that the Federal Reserv

might not raise US interest rates this year, after the first rate hike in nearly a decade in December 2015. Sinc

the beginning of 2016, gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust have already surpassed the whole of 2015. In

absolute numbers, gold holdings as on March 7, stood at 793 tonnes, an increase of 151 tonnes compared to

December 31, 2015. Besides, Barrick Gold Corporation, the world's largest gold producer, has also cut its 201

total gold production forecast, boosting prices. Although most of the Federal Open Market Committe

policymakers are still expected to raise rates this year and even discussed a hike at the January 26-27 polic

meeting, they were divided over how to interpret financial market volatility. The next meeting scheduled on

March 15-16 will be closely watched by investors across the globe, as it will provide clues on further rat

hikes.



Amid a weakening trend overseas, silver prices fell Rs 29

to Rs 37,130 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down their bets. Silver for delivery in May wa

trading lower by Rs 297, or 0.79 %, to Rs 37,130 per kg in a business turnover of 650 lots in futures trading a

the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).On similar lines, the white metal for delivery in far-month July wa

down by Rs 262, or 0.69 %, at Rs 37,613 per kg with a business turnover of 11 lots. In the internationa

market, silver traded 0.62 % lower at $15.23 an ounce in Singapore. Market analysts said, a weak trend i

precious metals in global markets as the dollar gained ahead of a key European Central Bank meeting thi

week eroding demand for the precious metal, kept pressure on silver futures here.

Energy

Crude oil prices showed a decline from their highest levels attained this year as the anticipations for 20th

March meeting is fading away. With third straight weekly decline in gasoline stocks, signal for some improved

demand at the time of summer driving season has suppported crude prices. Recently, gasoline prices hit thei

multi year low levels in the US region as the demand was too low along with lower crude oil prices. As pe

recent updates, gasoline now is just 58 cents less compared to last year’s average. Apart from this, the shal

production in USA was flat last week. US crude oil production is now standing at 9.10 mbpd compared to 9.6

mbpd levels in mid 2015.

Natural Gas futures jumped 3 per cent in the domesti

market on Friday tracking a bullish trend overseas amid speculation that lower prices of the fuel which ha

witnessed a bearish ride off late, may encourage lower production and boost demand. US natural gas rig coun

fell to a record low last week, down by 3 to 94, signaling lower production ahead. However, supply levels

remain more than adequate with total US natural gas storage 36.8 per cent higher than levels at this time a yea

ago and 29.4 per cent above the five-year average for this time of year. At the MCX, Natural Gas futures fo

March 2016 contract closed at Rs 123.3 per mmBtu, up by 3 per cent, after opening at Rs 120.4, against th

previous closing price of Rs 119.7. It touched an intra-day high of Rs 124.4.

Metal

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange ended down 0.9 percent at $4,890, while three-month

aluminium was down 1.5 percent at $1,559 a tonne, zinc slipped 1.8 percent to $1,765, lead fell 1.5 percent to

$1,818, tin lost 1.0 percent to $16,625 and nickel ceded 1.4 percent to $8,755 as the demand concern

resurfaced and Chinese equities sagged. The global refined copper market is expected to remain "essentially

balanced" in 2016 compared with a previous forecast in October for a 175,000 tonne surplus, the InternationaCopper Study Group (ICSG) said on Thursday, despite which the metal is all set to end the week on a negativ

note after four weeks of positive closing.

Nickel futures traded over 2% lower at Rs 614.8

per kg today as participants reduced their exposure amid a weak trend overseas and muted demand at th

domestic spot markets. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in March fell Rs 12.70, or 2.02%

to Rs 614.80 per kg, in a business turnover of 1,686 lots.Also, metal for delivery in April was trading Rs 12.50

or 1.97% lower at Rs 620.60 per kg in 73 lots. Globally, nickel dropped 3.6% at the London Metal Exchange

(LME), after gains Monday pushed it to its highest level since November. Market analysts said beside

subdued spot demand from alloy-makers at the domestic market, a weak trend in the entire base metals pack a

the LME after Goldman Sachs Group reiterated its view that the structural drivers for last year's slump i



prices remain intact, weighed on nickel futures prices here.

Zinc futures rose by 1.09 per cent to Rs 120.35 per kg today du

to the decline in the zinc stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand fo

the commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 2000 metric tonnes to 462250 metric tonnes as on March 11, 2016

Zinc futures for March 2016 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 120.35 per kg, up by 1.09 per cent afte

opening at Rs. 119.85 against the previous closing price of Rs. 119.05. It touched the intra-day high of Rs

120.60 till the trading. (At 4.20 PM today). Sentiment improved further as speculators increased positions i

the midst of a strong trend globally. Besides, high demand in domestic spot markets fueled the uptrend. Majo

refined zinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zinc importincountries are China, USA and Germany.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

Union Budget 2016

Increased allocation for price stabilization fund in the budget 2016-17 will help to check prices of essentia

commodities, especially of pulses. The ministry of consumer affairs has already prepared an action plan fothis purpose. More than 50,000 MT pulses have been procured from the farmers by various Governmen

AGENCIES at the market prices and decision to import 20,000 MT pulses has been taken. Total buffer stock

of 1.50 lakh MT pulses is being created and import of 6000 MT pulses has already been ordered. These effort

will certainly help to keep prices under check, he asserted. Besides increase in price stabilization fund from Rs

500 crore to Rs. 900 crore in the budget, the government has also allocated Rs. 500 crore to promote pulse

production during current fiscal year. The operation of the fund has also been transferred to the Department o

Consumer Affairs from Ministry of Agriculture for better coordination and timely action. Regardin

implementation of Food Security Act, by next month, the Act will be rolled out in all the states expect Tami

Nadu. The process of demystifying the Budget began some years ago, when the government would introduc

new duties or revise rates whenever the need arose. Take steel. Delhi first announced a 20 per cent safeguar

duty on hot-rolled coil in mid-September and then, much to the industry's relief, introduced in February

minimum import prices of $341 and $752 a tonne on 173 products.Why should the government wait for th

Budget when the debilitating impact of import surges on domestic steel makers was already in evidence? Th

US administration's response to steel imports from China and Russia, with dollops of subsidy proving hurtfu

to local industry, is found to be much faster and effective than of either India or the European Union.

The government agencies will procure one lakh tonnes of pulses ,including masoor and gram in the comin

days.Already the agencies have procured 51,000 tonnes of kharif pulses for the buffer stock against the targe

of 50,000 tonnes said a press statement released by the Consumer Affairs department.Reviewing a meeting o

price and availability of essential commodities,C Viswanath, secretary of department of consumer affairs wa

informed that import of 8,500 tonnes pulses order was on the way.Officials from the Agriculture ministry

informed that area under production of oil seeds during 2015-16 has increased 2.1% and mustard production i

expected to be higher by 6 lakh tonnes over the previous year.



The meeting also reviewed production of tomato in the country and its price trends. Tomato production is also

expected to be higher by 11.6% during 2015-16. Efforts are being made to increase its cultivation in non

traditional areas by using advanced hybrid varieties said the press statement.

Jeera

Jeera prices are witnessed bullish trend during the last day. Jeera futures were trading up by 1.1% at th

NCDEX on account of rise in demand in the physical market, due to the availability of dry crop in the spo

market. Spot market witnessed a higher trading during Thursday, with total arrivals of 38000 bags in Unjhmarket. The prices at Unjha market reported at around Rs. 2000 per 20 Kg. Stock positions at the NCDEX

accredited warehouses are 206 tonnes as on 09 Mar 2016.Jeera prices closed lower by 1.95 per cent on Friday

at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply

from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures fo

March 2016 contract closed at Rs. 14,870 per quintal, down by 1.95 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,05

against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,165. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 14,870.

Soybean

At Bundi market , Soybean Plant is trading strong at Rs. 3625-3650 per quintal, up by 1.39 per cent from

previous trading day.Soybean Mandi is offered firm at Rs. 3600-3625 per quintal, up by 2.11 per cent a

against previous day. Arrivals were reported at 200 Bags, higher by 100 Bags as compared to previou

day.Soybean Plant at Baran market is quoted high at Rs. 3525-3725 per quintal, higher by 2.05 per cent from

previous day.Soybean Mandi at Baran market is offered strong at Rs. 3300-3600 per quintal, higher by 2.8

per cent from previous day's price level. Today's arrivals are at 800 Bags, lower by 200 Bags from previou

day's arrivals.Soybean Plant at Bhawani market is trading strong at Rs. 3650-3720 per quintal, up by 1.92 pe

cent as compared to previous day.Soybean Mandi at Bhawani market is quoted strong at Rs. 3550-3670 pe

quintal, up by 1.94 per cent as against previous day. Total arrivals are at 800 Bags, lower by 200 Bags ascompared to previous day.

Mustard seed

Mustard seed prices closed higher by 1.87 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivative

Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the commodity in the major markets

At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 3,986 per quintal, up by 1.87 pe

cent, after opening at Rs. 3,927 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,913. It touched the intra-day high o

Rs. 3,992.

Chana

Chana prices closed higher 0.55 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange

Limited (NCDEX) as the traders enlarged their holdings in the commodity on account of the good demand in

the market. At the NCDEX, chana futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,411 per quintal, up by 0.55

per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,387 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,387. It touched the intra-da

high of Rs. 4,440. During Thursday’s trading session NCDEX Chana April opened positive and traded within

range during first half of the session but during second half it resumed uptrend and closed positive only



NCDEX Chana April futures ended the day at Rs 4387 per quintal which is 1.6% up against the previous day

According to report, due to high prices Australian farmers are encouraging to grow more plant for chickpea

this year. In major pulses growing area heavy rain is expected during next week, which may create problem fo

the rabi harvest. Government agencies have kept buffer stocks of 51 thousand tonnes of pulses and hav

planned 1 lakh tonnes of pulses to be stocked in rabi marketing season. Export of all pulses is banned excep

kabuli channa and up to 10,000 MTs in organic pulses and lentils

Moreover, the restricted arrivals of the commodity in the physical market due to lower estimated output also

influenced the chana prices.



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Commodity Research Report 14 March 2016 Ways2Capital

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Transcript of Commodity Research Report 14 March 2016 Ways2Capital