Commodity report by ways2capital 02 june 2014

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COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT

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MCX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS

DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIU 30-JUN- 111.55 110.05 108.55 108.05 107.05 106.55 105.55 104.05 102.55

COPPER 30-JUN- 423 419 415 413 411 409 407 403 399

CRUDE OIL 19-JUNY- 6213 6175 6137 6121 6099 6083 6061 6023 5985

GOLD 5-Jun-14 27432 27231 27030 26950 26829 26749 26628 26427 26226

LEAD 30-JUN- 126.10 125.05 124.00 123.50 122.95 122.45 121.90 120.85 119.80

NATURAL 25-JUNY- 286 281 275 273 269 267 264 258 252

NICKEL 30-JUN- 1226 1193 1161 1149 1128 1117 1096 1064 1031

SILVER 5-JUL-14 41780 41107 40434 40005 39761 39332 39088 38415 37742

ZINC 30-JUN- 128.00 125.95 123.90 123.20 121.85 121.15 119.80 117.75 115.70

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIU 30-Apr-14 116 113 109 108 106 105 102 99 96

COPPER 30-JUN-14 440 431 422 416 413 407 404 394 385

CRUDE OIL 19-JUN-14 6548 6405 6262 6183 6119 6040 5976 5833 5690

GOLD 5-JUN--14 30021 29003 27985 27427 26967 26409 25949 24931 23913

LEAD 30-Jun-14 134 130 127 125 123 121 120 116 112

NATURAL 25-JUN-14 323 305 286 278 267 259 249 229 211

NICKEL 30-JUN-14 1331 1266 1202 1170 1137 1106 1073 1008 944

SILVER 5-JULY-14 45246 43533 41820 40698 40107 38985 38394 36681 34968

ZINC 30-JUN-14 132 128 125 123 122 120 119 115 112




NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS

DALLY EXPIRY DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-May-14 705 697 689 685 681 677 673 665 657

SYBEANIDR 20-May-14 4882 4792 4702 4644 4612 4554 4522 4432 4342

RMSEED 20-May-14 3546 3501 3456 3429 3411 3384 3366 3321 3276

JEERAUNJHA 20-May-14 11808 11568 11328 11226 11088 10986 10848 10608 10368

DHANIYA 20-May-14 9837 9716 9595 9540 9475 9419 9353 9232 9111

CASTORSEED 20-May-14 4297 4165 4033 3985 3901 3853 3769 3637 3505

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-May-14 708 699 690 685 681 676 672 663 654

SYBEANIDR 20-May-14 5232 5023 4814 4705 4605 4496 4396 4187 3978

RMSEED 20-May-14 3719 3623 3527 3465 3431 3369 3335 3239 3143

JEERAUNJHA 20-May-14 11976 11676 11376 11253 11076 10953 10776 10476 10176

DHANIYA 20-May-14 10518 10178 9838 9661 9498 9321 9158 8818 8478

CASTORSEED 20-May-14 4447 4259 4071 4005 3883 3817 3695 3507 3319




WORLD NEWS

The yen strengthened as a government report showed Japan’s inflation accelerated to the fastest in more than two decades in April, reducing the prospect of additional stimulus by the Bank of Japan. The yen advanced for a third day against the U.S. currency as 10-year Treasury (USGG10YR) yields near the lowest since June reduced the greenback’s appeal. The euro headed for its biggest monthly drop in a year versus nine major peers amid bets the European Central Bank will expand easing next week.

India Rupee remained little looseness against US dollar and is currently trading at 59.11

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold headed for a monthly loss as signs that the U.S. economy is improving fueled stock-market gains, while demand for the metal slowed in China, the biggest consumer. . Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,256.96 an ounce. Spot Gold is currently trading at $1257. MCX Gold Jun is currently at `26836, it is trading up by `14 points for the day. Comex Silver is currently trading at $19.07 whereas MCX Silver July is currently trading at `40146, it is up by `139.

The SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund,is holding 785.28 tonnes as per latest available data on their website.

BASE METALS

Copper fell for a second day, paring the first monthly gain this year after the U.S. economy contracted more than estimated, dimming demand prospects from the second-biggest user. The metal for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange retreated as much as 0.4 percent to $6,858 a metric ton. U.S. gross domestic product fell at a 1 percent annualized rate during the first quarter after a previously reported 0.1 percent gain. LME- tracked copper inventory climbed 1.6 percent.

All base metals are trading on a mixed note.

ENERGY




WTI headed for its first monthly advance since February as crude inventories shrank at the delivery point for New York contracts. Brent was steady in London. Futures were little changed after rising 0.8 percent yesterday. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the biggest U.S. oil-storage hub, dropped by 1.53 million barrels. WTI for July delivery was at $103.38 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. MCX Crude Oil June is currently trading at `6105, it is trading down by `23 for the day.

LME DATA :

LME Inventory

Last updated at May 30 01:30 pm IST

Metal Change from previous day

Aluminium -4750

Copper -1150

Lead -375

Nickel 774

Tin -50

Zinc -7700

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

CHANA

• Chana futures traded range bound and ended flat on Thursday. Volumes and OI declined from previous trading day.

• Sources said that cheap imports of Chana and better than expected production continue to weigh on markets.

• Warehouse stocks improved on Thursday and continue to add pressure on the prices.




• As per the 3rd Advance estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Gram (Chana) is fore-casted to be 9.93 million MT in 2013-14 compared to 9.79 million MT (2nd Advance estimates) and 8.83 million MT in 2012-13. They added that total Pulses production is forecast-ed to be 19.57 (3rd Advance estimates) vs. 19.77 million MT (2nd Advance estimates) and 18.34 million MT in 2012-13.

Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved warehouses

Location 28-May-14 27-May-14

Bikaner 50286 50145

Delhi 63719 63281

Indore 1128 1037

Total 115133 114463

Comments: - Key support is at 2784 and 2740. Key resistances are at 2980 and 3020.

SOYABEAN & REFISOYAIndian oilseed complex prices traded mixed yesterday. Rupee ended flat.

• Soybean prices moved higher yesterday as traders covered shorts after the recent sharp lower move in prices.

• According to 3rd Advance estimates released by GoI, India’s output for the following crops in 2013-14 year are:- Soybean- 11.95 million MT, RM Seed – 7.83 million MT.

INTERNATIONAL VIEW

• Tight supplies of old crop Soy in US was supportive. However, favorable Soy planting conditions and good progress limited gains for new crop prices.

• US Soybeans planting was 59% completed as of 25 May vs. 33% previous week vs. 5 year average of 56%.

• Area planted with Soybeans in Brazil next season should reach a record 31.2 million hectares (77.4 acres), up 4% from last year thanks to high prices for the




oilseed.

Soybean Arrivals for 29 May 2014

Location MT

Khamhariya 20.00

Rajnandgaon 5.00

Momanbadodiya 7.20

Piplya 12.00

Susner 0.70

Imphal 1.40

Lamlong Bazaar 0.20

Anta 27.00

Baran 45.00

Iklera 10.00

Source - Dept. of Agriculture (GoI)

The following Future Contract are trading with high volume on NCDEX:

Soyabean - JUN. Contract

Refi. Soya - JUN Contract

Castorseed - JUN Contract

RM Seed - JUN Contract

Dhaniya - JUN Contract

Chana - JUN Contract




IMPORTANT ECONOMIC EVENT OF THE WEEK

DateDate CurrencyCurrency EventEvent ForecastForecast PreviousPrevious

Jun 2 EUR Italian Bank Holiday

Mon EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%

EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 52.6 52.7

EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 54.3 54.0

EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.5

USD Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

USD Final Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.2

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.7 54.9

USD Construction Spending m/m 0.8% 0.2%

USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 56.8 56.5

Jun 3 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -111.6K

Tue EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.7% 12.7%

EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate

12.7% 12.6%

EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.7% 0.7%

EUR Unemployment Rate 11.8% 11.8%

USD Factory Orders m/m 0.6% 1.1%

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.5 45.8

USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.0M 16.0M

Jun 4 EUR Spanish Services PMI 56.1 56.5

Wed EUR Italian Services PMI 51.4 51.1




EUR Final Services PMI 53.5 53.5

EUR PPI m/m -0.1% -0.2%

EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.2% 0.2%

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 217K 220K

USD Trade Balance -40.8B -40.4B

USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q -2.2% -1.7%

USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q 4.8% 4.2%

USD Final Services PMI 58.4 58.4

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.6 55.2

USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.7M

USD Beige Book

Jun 5 EUR German Factory Orders m/m 1.3% -2.8%

Thu EUR Retail PMI 51.2

EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.1% 0.3%

EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 2.00|2.2

USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 5.7%

EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.10% 0.25%

EUR ECB Press Conference

USD Unemployment Claims 314K 300K

USD Natural Gas Storage 114B

USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speak




Jun 6 EUR German Trade Balance 14.3B 14.8B

Fri EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.4% -0.5%

EUR French Gov Budget Balance -29.0B

EUR French Trade Balance -5.0B -4.9B

USD Non-Farm Employment Change 219K 288K

USD Unemployment Rate 6.4% 6.3%

USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.0%

USD Consumer Credit m/m 16.6B 17.5B

MCX TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

MCX GOLD JUN BEARISH• Resistance 2 – 30021• Resistance 1 – 27985• Support 1 – 25949• Support 2 – 23913 • Strategy – Sell On Higher Levels

MCX SILVER JULY BEARISH• Resistance 2 – 45246• Resistance 1 – 41820• Support 1 – 38394• Support 2 - 34968 • Strategy – Sell On Higher Levels

MCX CRUDE OIL JUN CONSOLIDATE• Resistance 2 – 6548• Resistance 1 – 6262• Support 1 – 5976 • Support 2 – 5690 • Strategy – Sell On Higher Levels




MCX COPPER JUN CONSOLIDATE• Resistance 2 – 440• Resistance 1 – 422• Support 1 – 404• Support 2 – 385• Strategy – Sell On Higher Levels

MCX NICKEL JUN CONSOLIDATE• Resistance 2 – 1331• Resistance 1 – 1202• Support 1 – 1073 • Support 2 – 944 • Strategy – Sell On Higher Levels

MCX LEAD JUN CONSOLIDATE• Resistance 2 – 134• Resistance 1 – 127• Support 1 – 120 • Support 2 – 112 • Strategy – Buy On Dips

MCX ZINC JUN CONSOLIDATE• Resistance 2 – 132• Resistance 1 – 125• Support 1 – 119 • Support 2 – 112 • Strategy – Buy On Dips

MCX ALUMINIUM JUN CONSOLIDATE• Resistance 2 – 116• Resistance 1 – 109• Support 1 – 102• Support 2 – 96• Strategy – Sell On Higher Levels

MCX NATURAL GAS JUN CONSOLIDATE• Resistance 2 – 323• Resistance 1 – 286 • Support 1 – 249 • Support 2 – 211 • Strategy – Sell On Higher Levels




This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities.

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Commodity report by ways2capital 02 june 2014

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Transcript of Commodity report by ways2capital 02 june 2014