E

MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31-SEP-2015 113 112 111 110 100 109 108 107 106

COPPER 31-SEP-2015 319 316 312 310 308 306 305 303 301

CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-2015 3475 3383 3291 3243 3199 3151 3107 3015 2923

GOLD 05-OCT-2015 32354 31925 31496 21243 31067 30814 30638 30209 29780

LEAD 31-AUG-2015 130 125 127 126 125 124 123 122 120

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015 219 211 203 201 196 193 188 180 172

NICKEL 31-AUG-2015 687 677 667 662 657 652 647 637 627

SILVER 04-SEP-2015 47317 46251 45185 44581 44119 43515 53053 41987 40921

ZINC 31-AUG-2015 160 158 157 156 156 155 154 153 151

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31-AUG-2015 119 116 113 111 110 108 107 104 101

COPPER 31-AUG-2015 356 341 326 317 311 302 296 281 266

CRUDE OIL 19-AUG-2015 3717 3546 3375 3285 3204 3114 3033 2862 2691

GOLD 05-OCT-2015 32777 32213 31649 31320 31085 30756 30521 29957 29393

LEAD 31-AUG-2015 134 131 128 126 125 124 122 119 116

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015 250 230 211 204 192 185 172 153 134

NICKEL 31-AUG-2015 783 745 706 681 667 642 628 589 551

SILVER 04-SEP-2015 49463 47726 45989 44983 44252 43246 42515 40778 39041

ZINC 31-AUG-2015 166 162 158 157 154 153 150 146 142

Monday, 29 August 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL ZINC AUG BELOW 154 TGT 152 SL 156

SELL CRUDEOIL SEP BELOW 3120 TGT 3062 SL 3173

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31571 TGT 31764 SL 31393 - NOT EXECUTED

SELL ZINC AUG BELOW 152 TGT 150 SL 154 - NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-AUG-2015 663 658 653 650 648 645 643 638 633

SYBEANIDR 20-AUG-2015 3481 3445 3409 3388 3373 3352 3337 3301 3265

RMSEED 18-SEP-2015 4795 4742 4689 4660 4636 4607 4583 4530 4477

JEERAUNJHA 18-SEP-2015 18590 18360 18130 17995 17900 17765 17670 17440 17210

GUARSEED10 20-OCT-2015 3660 3617 3574 3547 3531 3504 3488 3445 3402

TMC 20-SEP-2015 8113 7903 7693 7601 7483 7391 7273 7063 6853

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-AUG-2015 709 690 671 659 652 640 633 614 595

SYBEANIDR 20-AUG-2015 3831 3690 3549 3458 3408 3317 3267 3126 2985

RMSEED 18-SEP-2015 5355 5134 4913 4772 4692 4551 4471 4250 4029

JEERAUNJHA 18-SEP-2015 20727 19847 18967 18413 18087 17533 17207 16327 15447

GUARSEED10 20-OCT-2015 4070 3904 3738 3629 3572 3463 3406 3240 3074

TMC 20-SEP-2015 8839 8403 7967 7737 7531 7301 7095 6659 6223

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA SEP ABOVE 18100 TGT 18600 SL 17690

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL

SELL RM SEED SEP BELOW 4770 TGT 4669 SL 4871 - TGT ACHIEVED

BUY SOYABEAN OCT ABOVE 3525 TGT 3592 SL 3459 - NOT EXECUTED

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE✍

Iraq's government would consider selling crude through Iran should talks with the autonomous

Kurdish region on an oil revenue-sharing agreement fail, a senior oil ministry official in Baghdad told

Reuters.

Gold World no. 1 copper miner Codelco produced more copper in the first half of 2016 than a year

ago, but made a financial loss, and the chief executive said on Friday that the company position was

"extremely fragile.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings

stood at 956.59 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.

ExtendingHoldings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares

Silver Trust SLV, stood at 11100.66 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.

Nigeria's military said on Saturday it had launched a new offensive against militants in the oil-

producing Niger Delta, killing five and arresting 23. Armed groups have claimed responsibility for a

series of attacks on oil and gas pipelines in the southern region, reducing the country's oil output by

700,000 barrels day

GOLD✍

Gold traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as investors waited for clues on whether the US Federal

Reserve would hike interest rates this year. At the end of the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled

to address a gathering of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Recent hawkish comments

from some policymakers have raised investors' expectations that Yellen might also take a less cautious

tone.

Gold for delivery in October dropped Rs 91, or 0.29%, to Rs 31,288 per 10 grams in a business

turnover of 252 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in

far-month December was trading down Rs 73, or 0.23%, at Rs 31,578 per 10 grams in 7 lots. Market

analysts said the fall in gold futures was mostly in step with a weak trend overseas after a Federal

Reserve official signalled that an increase in US interest rates is still possible this year, hurting demand

for the precious metal as a safe-haven investment. Meanwhile, gold prices fell 0.16% to USD 1,336.50

an ounce in Singapore today.

India's gold demand fell significantly in the first half of 2016. World Gold Council data show the

combined demand for jewellery and investment at only 247 tonnes. Import during January-June was

248 tonnes, 42 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year and lowest since 2009. Even in

calendar years 2013 and 2014, when the trade was under severe regulatory stress in India, demand and

imports were higher than seen in 2016 so far. Estimates peg imports in 2016 at 650 tonnes, after taking

into account some recovery expected in rural demand, led by a good monsoon. However, this will be

the lowest after 2009, when imports were 559 tonnes. Notably, the trend has continued after June.

Sudheesh Nambiath, lead analyst for precious metals at GFMS Thomson Reuters, said: "In July,

imports fell 78 per cent year-on-year to 20.8 tonnes, the lowest since September 2013. Has the cycle of

Indian gold imports hit the trough? Possibly, yes. experts, is similar in August. The domestic price

continues to trade $25 an ounce lower than the landed cost of imported gold, making imports unviable.

Bachhraj Bamalva, director, All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, said: "Due to high import

duty and several measures implemented by the government in the past few quarters to disincentivise

black money, gold demand saw a huge impact and our estimate is that 2016 is likely to end with 650

tonnes of imports. If demand improves significantly, in the most optimistic scenario, imports might be

700 tonnes." Apart from anti-black money measures like providing the income tax PAN for purchase

of jewellery in cash above Rs 2 lakh and excise duty on jewellery, a sharp increase in global gold

prices and better returns in other asset classes like equities has lured buyers away. However, even as

Indians are not buying as much gold as in the past, experts say one should not write off the yellow

metal. Jean-François Lambert, managing partner, Lambert Commodities, says: "So long as India is

India, its love affair with gold will endure."

Gold recovered by Rs. 100 to Rs31,250 per 10 grams on Saturday on fresh buying by jewellers at the

domestic spot market to meet retailers' demand even as the metal weakened overseas. Silver also

rebounded by Rs 280 to Rs 44,700 per kg due to increased off-take by industrial units and coin makers.

Traders said fresh buying by jewellers to meet festive season demand from retailers led to the recovery

in the precious metal prices. They said, however, a weak trend overseas capped the gain.

Globally, gold fell 0.08 per cent to $1,320.50 an ounce in New York on Friday after the US Federal

Reserve chairman Janet Yellen said the case for an increase in interest rate has strengthened, in an

address to central bankers in Wyoming . In the national capital, gold of 99.9 per cent and 99.5 per cent

purity went up Rs 100 each to Rs 31,250 and Rs 31,100 per 10 grams, respectively. The metal had lost

Rs 100 on Friday. Sovereign, however, remained flat at Rs 24,300 per piece of eight grams in limited

deals. Tracking gold, silver ready recovered Rs 280 to Rs 44,700 per kg and weekly-based delivery by

Rs 115 to Rs 43,975 per kg. On the other hand, silver coins continued to be traded at the previous level

of Rs 75,000 for buying and Rs 76,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Gold discounts in India fell to nearly three-month lows this week while fresh buying gathered some

steam elsewhere in Asia as price corrections and festive buying lifted demand for the yellow metal.

The safe-haven asset, which is highly sensitive to interest rates, has declined more than one per cent

this week as upbeat US economic data boosted expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal

Reserve this year. In India, the second-biggest gold consumer, dealers were offering discounts of up to

$25 an ounce over official domestic prices, the lowest since the first week of June, and down from up

to $52 last week.

CRUDE OIL✍

In volatile market, crude oil prices still on slippery ground Oil prices rise in thin Asian trade;

production freeze may occur Oil prices retreat from 2016 highs on OPEC output boost. Supply worries

wane, but for how long?, Oil rises as lower output tightens market, outweighs weak China data. Oil

prices fell early on Wednesday as an unexpected build in US crude stocks weighed on markets, along

with concerns that Chinese crude demand could falter as Beijing clamps down on alleged tax evasion

in the oil industry. International Brent crude oil futures were trading at $ 49.57 a barrel at 0054 GMT,

down 39 cents, or 0.8%, from their last close. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 46 cents,

or 1%, at $47.64 a barrel. Robust Chinese crude demand growth has been driven by independent

refiners, also know as teapots, who began to import crude last June after obtaining government crude

import quotas and licences. But Beijing's crackdown on alleged tax evasion in the oil industry,

targetting the teapots, threatens to put a lid on Chinese demand. "The question now is whether the

teapots will start cutting runs," a Singapore-based trader said, adding that falling Chinese demand

would be a double whammy for the oversupplied crude market.

Oil prices dipped in early trading on Friday after the Saudi energy minister tempered expectations of

strong market intervention by producers during talks next month. International benchmark Brent crude

oil prices were trading at $ 49.55 per barrel at 0114 GMT, down 12 cents from their previous close. US

West Texas Intermediate crude was down 7 cents at $47.26 a barrel. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister

Khalid Al-Falih told Reuters late on Thursday that "we don't believe any significant intervention in the

market is necessary other than to allow the forces of supply and demand to do the work for us," adding

that the "market is moving in the right direction" already.

Goldman Sachs warned that the recent rally in oil prices was not based on fundamentals and played

down recent hopes that an agreement between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries would be able to sustain current prices. "While oil prices have rebounded sharply since

August 1, we believe this move has not been driven by incrementally better oil fundamentals, but

instead by headlines around a potential output freeze as well as a sharp weakening of the dollar,"

Goldman said in a note to clients dated August 22. Hopes that OPEC may come to an agreement to

stabilize the market in informal talks to be held on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in

Algeria on September 26-28 helped oil enter a bull market with prices up more than 20% through last

Friday.“We are, in Saudi Arabia, watching the market closely, and if there is a need to take any action

to help the market rebalance, then we would, of course in cooperation with OPEC and major non-

OPEC exporters,” the country’s energy minister Al-Falih said.Goldman remained skeptical about the

effectiveness of such a freeze, which could become “self-defeating” as higher prices incentivized

increased output elsewhere.

COPPER✍

Copper down 0.1% on global cues, weak demand, Surplus supply, weak demand from China to hit

copper prices, Copper down 0.1% on muted demand. Copper prices moved down by 0.06% to Rs

318.20 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down their bets amid a weak trend overseas and

low demand at spot markets. Copper for delivery in August shed 20 paise or 0.06% to Rs 318.20 per

kg in a business turnover of 790 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. Likewise, the metal for

delivery in November traded lower by 10 paise or 0.03% to Rs 324.85 per kg in 68 lots. Analysts said

copper prices fell in line with a weak trend in base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange and

strengthening dollar sent commodities down as comments from a US Federal Reserve official

bolstered speculation that borrowing costs may rise this year.

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE✍

National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange today said it has helped over 8,000 farmers across the

country hedge their commodity price risk on its platform. Over 8,000 farmers across the country

participate on NCDEX platform to hedge their commodity price risk, it said in a statement here.

Spread across Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, farmers are using aggregation of produce to gain

bargaining power and using the futures platform to smoothly hedge their lo hedge their location and

basis risks to protect their income, the statement added. To double their income by 2022, farmers need

to achieve higher crop yields and sell larger surpluses. Finding it difficult to compete in formal

markets and without the assurance that their efforts would pay off, farmers remained unwilling to take

risks in increasing their production. Using its national online footprint, the exchange has collaborated

with Farmer ProducerProducer Companies to demonstrate that investments in linking farmers to

markets, coupled with supply-side activities such as capacity building and input supply, can have a

major positive effect on raising farmer incomes.

With Sebi seeking explanation for suspending futures trade in castor seeds, NCDEX today said a

probe by an external audit firm has been initiated into the role of brokers and individual traders. The

exchange has also placed the trading terminals of four members on 'Square-off mode'. On January 27,

the exchange had suspended futures trading in all castor seeds contracts after it found the open interest

positions for the next month contracts to be high and the prices low. "The exchange has initiated

investigation into the role of members and their clients through external Audit firm/s," the

commodities derivative exchange NCDEX said in a statement.

National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange today said its cotton contract has performed well

registering a jump of 338 per cent at Rs 1,376.71 crore for the quarter till March 21, 2016. "Our cotton

contract has performed well and traded value jumped by 338 per cent at 1,376.71 crore for the quarter

till March 21, 2016 as against Rs. 313.99 crore in the quarter ended December 2015," NCDEX said in

a statement here. "The contract also witnessed increased participation on the exchange; with 224 per

cent increase at 24,820 of average daily traded quantity on QoQ basis," it added. The contract has also

witnessed 75,072 units of open interest position, a jump of 483 per cent on QoQ basis. The exchange

said it has helped raise the bar on quality of cotton bales traded in futures. "Increased participation in

NCDEX cotton is very encouraging. We are committed to offer a safe, credible and transparent

marketplace. We have been at the forefront of unleashing a slew of warehousing reforms aimed at

giving participants a superior user experience and it is indeed heartening to see this growing

confidence." NCDEX MD & CEO Samir Shah said.

Domestic cotton prices are on the upside since April, due to expectation of weak production. This has

affected exports, mainly to Pakistan. In the current cotton year, about 37 per cent of exports have been

to Pakistan. However, with prices moving up to Rs 50,000 a candy, this is being hit, says the

trade.“China is the major buyer for Indian cotton but this year's demand was not so good. Against it,

due to crop failure, Pakistan became a major importer. However, if our prices were lower, our overall

export might be higher than it has,” said J Thulasidharan, president of the Indian Cotton Federation.

Continuing its losing streak for the seventh straight day, refined soya oil prices eased further by 0.27%

to Rs 656.10 per 10 kg in futures market today as participants engaged in trimming their positions,

taking negative cues from spot market on easing demand.At the National Commodity and Derivatives

Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in October drifted lower by Rs 1.80, or 0.27% to Rs 656.10 per

10 kg with an open interest of 50,650 lots.Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts shed

Rs 1.40, or 0.22% to Rs 648.90 per 10 kg in 53,800 lots.Analysts said offloading of positions by

traders due to subdued demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position, mainly kept

refined soya oil prices lower at futures trade.

Jeera prices were down by 1.17% to Rs 18,575 per quintal in futures trading today as participants

trimmed their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on subdued demand. At the National

Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in October month fell by Rs 220, or 1.17%

to Rs 18,575 per quintal with an open interest 4,362 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in September

contracts declined by Rs 205, or 1.10% to Rs 18,370 per quintal in 19,473 lots. Analysts said

offloading of positions by traders on the back of low demand in the spot market against adequate

stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions, mainly pulled down jeera prices at futures

trade.

SOYABEAN✍

The soyabean counter on agri bourse NCDEX witnessed a long squeeze on Monday, causing the

premium between the May and June contracts to widen to an intraday high of 3.8% from the normal

1.5-2%, say brokers like Harish Galipelli of Inditrade. The last traded price of the May contract was

Rs 3,882 per quintal while that of the June contract was Rs 4,023. The May contract expires on Friday.

The cause for the spike in spread was the final expiry date of stocks for May delivery. Since the stocks

cannot be retendered they have to be sold. The selling pressure was so great that buyers were left with

the option of accepting deliveries or squaring off at a loss, with many choosing the latter. Prop brokers

short bean were able to pocket not just the decline in prices from their higher selling levels but also to

sell the June soya bean contract at elevated premia, said Sandeep Bajoria, one of the largest physical

market brokers of edible oils.

As per SEA data, Import of soyoil during Jul 2016 down to 3.48 lakh tonnes (lt) from 3.96 lt in Jun

2016. Moreover, Import of vegetable oils during Jul 2016 is reported at 11.41lt compared to 15.01 lt in

July 2015, down 24% due to higher stocks in domestic market. The overall import of vegetable oils

during first nine months of the current oil year 2015- 16, Nov’15 – Jul’16 is reported at 109 lt

compared to 103.5 lt up by 5%.

SPICES✍

According to Dept of Commerce, the exports of Jeera in the first two month of 2016-17 increased by

more than 82.5% at 33,908 tonnes compared to last year same time. As per the trade sources, India's

jeera exports rose nearly 25% to around 50,000 tonnes in Apr-Jul from 40,000 tn in the year-ago

period due to good demand from China and Bangladesh. China imported 1,500-1,700 tn jeera in last

15 days. As per 4thadvance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is pegged at 2.38 lt

compared to 1.97 lt in 2014-15. In 2013-14, production was 3.46 lt.

Turmeric acreage in Telangana as on 24 Aug was up 15.4 % at 45,000 hectares as compared to 39,000

hectares last year. Sowing of turmeric is over in 93 per cent of normal area and up by 110 % of normal

sowing area. As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports in AprilMay 2016 increased by 31%

compared to last year at 21,256 tonnes. In 2015-16, 85,426 tonnes exported compared to 90,738

tonnes in 2014-15. Major export destinations in 2015-16 are Iran, Malaysia, UAE, USA and Srilanka.

The arrivals in the main physical markets such as Nizamabad, Duggirala (AP), Salem, Erode and

Sangli reported decreasing. There is expectation of lower arrivals and good upcountry demand may

lend support in coming weeks.

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