Ways2Capital Commodity Report 15 June 2015

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Transcript of Ways2Capital Commodity Report 15 June 2015

  • NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

    DAILY EXPIRYDATE

    R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 622 612 602 598 592 588 582 572 562

    SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 3834 3781 3728 3699 3675 3646 3622 3569 3516

    RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4471 4385 4299 4264 4213 4178 4127 4041 3955

    JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 17781 17486 17191 17013 16896 16718 16601 16306 16011

    CHANA 20 JUL 2015 4826 4758 4690 4661 4622 4593 4554 4486 4418

    CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4334 4275 4216 4178 4157 4119 4098 4039 3980

    NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

    WEEKLY EXPIRYDATE

    R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    SYOREFIDR 20 AUG 2015 646 629 612 603 595 586 578 561 544

    SYBEANIDR 20 AUG 2015 4341 4136 3931 3800 3763 3726 3595 3521 3316

    RMSEED 20 JUL 2015 4680 4518 4356 4292 4194 4130 4032 3870 3708

    JEERAUNJHA 20 JUL 2015 19105 18340 17575 17205 16810 16440 16045 15280 14515

    CHANA 20 JUL 2015 5126 4968 4810 4721 4652 4563 4494 4336 4178

    CASTORSEED 20 JUL 2015 4712 4517 1313 4227 4109 4023 3905 3701 3497

  • MCX DAILY LEVELS

    DALLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 115 113 111 110 109 108 107 106 105

    COPPER 30 JUN 2015 388 385 382 381 379 378 376 373 370

    CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 3988 3944 3900 3878 3856 3834 3812 3768 3724

    GOLD 05 AUG 2015 27277

    27154 27031 26964 26908 26841 26785 26662 26539

    LEAD 30 JUN 2015 124 122 120 119 118 117 116 114 112

    NATURAL GAS 25 JUN 2015 191 187 182 179 178 175 174 169 165

    NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 894 876 858 850 840 832 822 804 786

    SILVER 03 JUL 2015 37497

    37217 36937 36764 36657 36484 36377 36097 35817

    ZINC 30 JUN 2015 141 139 137 136 135 134 133 131 129

    MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

    WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

    ALUMINIUM 30 JUN 2015 119 116 113 111 110 108 107 104 101

    COPPER 30 JUN 2015 427 412 397 388 382 373 367 352 337

    CRUDE OIL 19 JUN 2015 4554 4317 4080 3968 3843 3731 3606 3369 3132

    GOLD 05 AUG 2015 27939 27592 27245 27071 26898 26724 26551 26204 25857

    LEAD 30 JUN 2015 144 136 128 123 120 115 112 104 96

    NATURAL GAS 26 MAY 2015 237 217 197 187 177 167 157 137 117

    NICKEL 30 JUN 2015 980 936 892 867 848 823 804 760 716

    SILVER 05 JUL 2015 39087 38310 37533 37062 36756 36285 35979 3520 34425

  • MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

    INTERNATIONAL NEWS

    China

    Chinese imports fell for a seventh straight month in May while exports also sank, data showedtoday, as the world's second biggest economy shows protracted weakness in the face ofgovernment easing measures.

    The disappointing figures also come as leaders try to transform the economy from one wheregrowth is driven by consumer spending rather than government investment and exports.

    Imports slumped 17.6 percent year on year to USD 131.26 billion, the General Administrationof Customs said in a statement. The decline was much sharper than the median forecast of a 10percent fall in a Bloomberg News poll of economists and followed April's 16.2 percent drop.

    G7 Meetings

    US President Barack Obama urged fellow leaders of the G7 to stand up to "Russian aggressionin Ukraine" as he enjoyed a traditional Bavarian welcome ahead of their summit in Germany.

    One of the many issues G7 leaders would be discussing during their two-day summit was"standing up to Russian aggression," Obama said in opening remarks as he was welcomed byGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    In a sign of togetherness designed to show absentee President Vladimir Putin the unity of theG7 over the Ukraine crisis, Obama said ties between the United States and Germany were "oneof the strongest alliances the world has ever known."

    He also hailed the "enduring friendship" between the American and German people in a speechwarmly applauded by Bavarians in traditional dress, quaffing beer and munching pretzels.

    For her part, Merkel praised the United States as an "essential partner" despite occasional"differences of opinion." Traditionally strong US-German ties have been tested by a spyingscandal including the alleged tapping of Merkel's mobile phone, and more recently by reportsof joint US-German surveillance of European political and economic targets, which has putMerkel under domestic pressure.

    The US and Germany shared "common values", Merkel stressed, in an apparent reference toPutin whose Russia was expelled from the G7 after Moscow's annexation of Crimea. EUPresident Donald Tusk, also attending the meeting, said he wanted to "reconfirm G7 unity onsanctions policy" against Russia.

    Obama and Merkel were speaking in the tiny village of Kruen ahead of the two-day summit atthe nearby Elmau Castle. As well as Ukraine, the leaders are also expected to discuss the Greek

  • debt crisis and the threat posed worldwide by jihadist terrorism.

    IMF Policymakers in Asia need to put greater emphasis on "growth-friendly" fiscal policy to sustaingrowth momentum in the face of demographic changes that could weigh on their economies, asenior official of the International Monetary Fund said.

    Aging populations and falling birth rates are shrinking labour forces in Asian countries, whichwill cause economic growth to slow, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, deputy managing director of theIMF, told a forum on fiscal policy on Wednesday.

    "Sound fiscal management becomes more challenging in the face of these demographicchanges because increased spending for aging populations and shrinking tax bases willundermine fiscal soundness," he said.

    Furusawa said global growth is still modest after the global financial crisis and medium-termprospects are less optimistic for some advanced economies and especially for emergingmarkets.

    Japanese Vice Finance Minister Ichiro Miyashita, speaking at the forum, said the country is"surely going to raise" the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April 2017 as planned.

    BULLION Gold

    The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basketof six major currencies, dipped 0.6% to hit 95.82, moving off Friday's highs of 96.95. Thegreenback weakened after rallying sharply on Friday after a robust U.S. jobs report bolsteredexpectations for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve later this year.

    The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 280,000 jobs in May, well aheadof economists forecast for 220,000. The upbeat data underlined the view that the economy is ontrack to rebound after a weak first quarter and bolstered expectations that the Fed could startraising rates at its September policy meeting.

    Expectations of higher borrowing rates going forward is considered bearish for gold, as theprecious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise.Meanwhile, developments surrounding talks between Greece and its international creditorsremained in focus.

    Over the weekend European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urged Greek PrimeMinister Alexis Tsipras to come up with alternative economic reforms "swiftly" so thatnegotiations could continue this week.

    Athens delayed a key debt payment to the International Monetary Fund on Friday after Tsipras

  • rejected the proposed reforms put forward by the EC as 'absurd'. Also on the Comex, silverfutures for July delivery shed 2.7 cents, or 0.17%, to trade at $15.95 a troy ounce.

    Silver prices fell to $15.93 on Friday, the weakest level since May 1, before closing at $15.98,down 11.9 cents, or 0.74%. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for July delivery tacked on 0.7cents, or 0.25%, to trade at $2.699 a pound.

    On Friday, futures slumped to $2.670, a level not seen since April 23, before inching up 0.5cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $2.692. Official trade data released Monday showed that China'scopper arrivals in May fell 16.3% from a month earlier to 360,000 metric tons.

    The country's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion last month from $34.2 billion in April,compared to estimates for a surplus of $45.0 billion. Chinese exports fell 2.5% from a yearearlier, while imports tumbled 17.6%, worse than forecasts for a decline of 10.7%.

    A slowdown in domestic demand indicated a recovery in the broader economy remains fragileand may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at the slowest pace in sixyears in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have to introduce furthereasing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth.

    Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures,including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of majorbanks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth. The Asian nation is theworld's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global demand.

    Silver Silver futures were trading lower in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculatorsexited positions in the precious metal as a pickup in US retail sales signaled a rebound in theworlds biggest economy, prompting the case for the Fed to raise interest rates for the first timesince 2006, in the coming months, dimming the lure for the bullion as a store of value.

    US retail sales surged 1.2 per cent in May 2015 from the previous month, when they climbed arevised 0.2 per cent.

    At the MCX, Silver futures for July 2015 contract is trading at Rs 36,756 per 1 kg, down by0.15 per cent after opening at Rs 36,732, against the previous closing price of Rs 36,812.

    ENERGY Natural gas

    Natural gas prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Monday, as investors returned tothe market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses. On the New York MercantileExchange, natural gas for delivery in July jumped 7.0 cents, or 2.68%, to trade at $2.660 permillion British thermal units during U.S. morning hours. On Friday, natural gas prices slumped

  • 3.6 cents, or 1.37%, to end at $2.590.

    Prices hit a five-week low of $2.556 on June 4. Futures were likely to find support at $2.556per million British thermal units, the low from June 4, and resistance at $2.724, the high fromJune 3.

    The July natural gas contract declined 2.5 cents, or 1.97%, last week, the third straight weeklyloss, as forecasts for mild weather across the U.S. in the week ahead and concerns over amplesupplies weighed.

    Weather forecasting models called for mostly normal temperatures across the U.S. throughmid-June, suggesting little demand for the fuel and paving the way for additional heftyinventory builds in the weeks ahead.

    Spring usually sees the weakest demand for natural gas in the U.S, as the absence of extremetemperatures curbs demand for heating and air conditioning. Meanwhile, the U.S. EnergyInformation Administration said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 132billion cubic feet, above expectations for an increase of 121 billion and following a build of 112billion cubic feet in the preceding week. Supplies rose by 118 billion cubic feet in the sameweek last year, while the five-year average change is an increase of 92 billion cubic feet.

    Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.233 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 50.7% higherthan during the same week a year earlier and 1.0% above the five-year average for this time ofyear.

    Last spring, supplies were 55% below the five-year average, indicating producers have madeup for all of last winter's unusually strong demand. The EIA's next storage report slated forrelease on Thursday, June 4 is expected to show a build of approximately 110 billion cubic feetfor the week ending June 5.

    Supplies rose by 109 billion cubic feet in the same week last year, while the five-year averagechange is an increase of 89 billion cubic feet. Elsewhere on the Nymex, crude oil for deliveryin July shed 48 cents, or 0.8%, to trade at $58.63 a barrel, while heating oil for July deliverydipped 0.53% to trade at $1.859 per gallon.

    Crude OilCrude futures fell sharply on Monday as energy traders continued to react to the long-termramifications of OPEC's decision last Friday to keep its production ceiling above 30 millionbarrels per day.

    On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for July delivery fell 1.00 or 1.70% to58.12, extending a recent skid over the last week. U.S. crude futures traded between 57.88 and59.12 on a light day of trading.

    On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery dipped 0.69 or 1.07% to

  • 62.62, falling for the fourth time in five sessions. The spread between the international and U.S.benchmarks of crude rose to $4.50, above Friday's level of $4.23.At a semi-annual meeting ofits members on Friday in Vienna, OPEC decided to maintain production at its current level amove which caused crude to spike roughly 1.5% on the session.

    An outflow of Iranian oil into the global markets is considered to be bearish for crude prices,which has been weighed down by a glut of oversupply in recent months. Traders will alsomonitor a bid by Indonesia to return to OPEC.

    Indonesia, which suspended OPEC membership in 2008 when its import level exceeded itsamount of crude exports, announced its intention to pursue full membership in the cartel at themeeting.The inclusion of the Southeast Asian emerging nation could help level the globalsupply-demand balance. Indonesia consumes around 1.5 million barrels of crude per day and isseeking supply agreements with OPEC members in order to import more oil, according toreports.

    Also on Monday, crude prices slid amid disappointing import and export data in China. In May,the Asian nation's trade surplus widened to $59.5 billion, up from $34.2 billion a month earlier.Exports fell by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, while imports declined by more than 17%.

    In terms of crude, Chinese imports fell to 5.47 million bpd a decline of 26% on ayear-over-year basis. In April, China became the world's largest importer of crude. Chineseimports fell sharply last month, as the nation's state-owned oil company drew from itsenormous stockpiles while its tankers off the Strait of Malacca continued to horde cheapercrude. Energy traders await the release of weekly U.S. crude stockpiles at the middle of thisweek for further indications on current supply levels. Last Friday, oil services firm BakerHughes (NYSE:BHI) said that the number of oil rigs nationwide fell by four on the week to642, the lowest level since August, 2010.

    It marked the 26th consecutive week of weekly rig declines. Though U.S. shale producers havebeen forced to slash drilling due to the lower price of crude, they have still maintained highproduction levels by keeping their more efficient rigs online. The U.S. Dollar Index, whichmeasures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies,plummeted 1.09% to 95.34.

    BASE METAL Copper

    Copper prices moved further away from a six-week low on Tuesday, after disappointingChinese inflation data added to speculation policymakers will have to introduce furtherstimulus measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth.

    On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for July delivery tackedon 1.2 cents, or 0.43%, to trade at $2.708 a pound during European morning hours after hitting

  • an intraday peak of $2.715, the most since June 4.

    A day earlier, copper inched up 0.4 cents, or 0.15%, to close at $2.696. Futures were likely tofind support at $2.670, the low from June 5, and resistance at $2.731, the high from June 4.

    Government data released earlier showed that Chinese inflation for May rose 1.2%, belowexpectations for 1.3% and down from 1.5% in April. The producer price index fell by amore-than-expected 4.6% last month, underling concerns over the health of the world's secondlargest economy.

    Disappointing trade data released on Monday indicated a recovery in the broader economyremains fragile and may need further government stimulus. China's economy grew at theslowest pace in six years in the first quarter, underling speculation policymakers will have tointroduce further easing measures to jumpstart the economy amid lackluster growth.

    Since November, the People's Bank of China has introduced a series of stimulus measures,including lowering interest rates three times and cutting the reserve requirement ratios of majorbanks twice, in order to spur economic activity and boost growth.

    The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of globaldemand. Elsewhere, gold futures for August delivery tacked on $3.00, or 0.26%, to trade at$1,176.60 a troy ounce, while silver futures for July delivery rose 7.3 cents, or 0.46% to tradeat $16.03 an ounce.

    Zinc

    Zinc futures fell by 0.66 per cent on Thursday at the domestic markets after US consumerconfidence fell 1.7 percentage points in June, declining for the second consecutive month andto its lowest level this year which reduced the demand outlook for the metal. The ThomsonReuters/IPSOS Primary Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index fell to 55.0 in June from 56.7in May. Zinc futures for June 2015 contract, at MCX, were trading at Rs 136.15 per kg, downby 0.66 per cent after opening at Rs. 137.15 against the previous closing price of Rs. 137.05. Ittouched the intra-day low of Rs. 1335.90 till the trading. (At 3.50 PM today). Major refinedzinc exporting countries are Canada, Australia and Rep. of Korea, while major refined zincimporting countries are China, USA and Germany.

    Lead

    Lead prices rose by 0.93 per cent on Wednesday at the domestic markets due to the decline inthe lead stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the strong demand forthe commodity. LME zinc stocks fell by 1225 metric tonnes to 154975 metric tonnes as on June10, 2015. At the MCX, Lead futures, for the June 2015 contract, is trading at Rs 124.60 per kg,up by 0.93 per cent, after opening at Rs 123.60, against a previous close of Rs 123.45. Ittouched an intra-day high of Rs 124.90 till the trading. (At 3.15 PM today) Prices also rose as

  • participants enlarged positions taking positive cues from the global market and rising spotdemand.

    Nickel

    Nickel futures surged in the domestic market on Wednesday as investors and speculatorsbooked fresh positions in the industrial metal amid a pickup in physical demand for Nickel inthe domestic spot market. Traders are eying the China industrial output data due for release onThursday which may show that factory production grew by 6 per cent, year on year in May2015, up from an annual 5.9 per cent rise in April 2015 and 5.6 per cent in March 2015, whichwas the weakest growth since 2008. At the MCX, Nickel futures for June 2015 contract istrading at Rs 864.50 per 1 kg, up by 0.78 per cent after opening at Rs 860.80, against theprevious closing price of Rs 857.80.

    NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

    Refined soya

    Falling for the third straight day, refined soya oil prices shed 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10

    kg in futures trade on friday owing to slackened demand in the spot market against sufficient

    stocks.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in

    August month fell by Rs 1.95, or 0.33 per cent to Rs 588.80 per 10 kg with an open interest of

    2,27,290 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in June contracts shed 25 paise, or 0.04 per cent to

    Rs 604.80 per 10 kg in 14,865 lots.Offloading of positions by traders on the back of subdued

    demand in the spot market against adequate stocks kept pressure on the refined soya oil prices.

    Chana

    Amid profit-booking by speculators after recent gains and subdued spot demand, chana prices

    eased 0.17 per cent to Rs 4,705 per quintal in futures trade on wednesday.However, lower

    output estimates this marketing year capped the fall.At National Commodity and Derivative

    Exchange, chana for delivery in July declined Rs 8, or 0.17 per cent, to Rs 4,705 per quintal

    with an open interest of 1,69,180 lots.Also, the commodity for delivery in June contracts shed

    Rs 4, or 0.09 per cent, to Rs 4,645 per quintal in 19,160 lots.Demand in the spot market against

    adequate stock position mainly led to slide in chana prices.

  • Mustardseed

    Taking positive cues from spot markets on rising demand,mustardseed prices were up by Rs 35

    to Rs 4,110 per quintal in futures trading on Tuesday, as participants enlarged their

    exposures.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchangeplatform, mustardseed for

    delivery in current month, June contracts was trading higher by Rs 35, or 0.86 per cent to Rs

    4,110 per quintal, in an open interest of 29,410 lots.In similar lines, most-active delivery in July

    contracts surged by Rs 30, or 0.73 per cent to Rs 4,150 per quintal, with an open interest of

    76,800 lots.Iincreased positions built up by participants, tracking a firm trend at physical

    marketes, mainly lifted mustardseed prices at futures trade.

    Castorseed

    Castorseed prices rebounded in futures trading today as a result of the rise in demand from

    consuming industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged

    the investors to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for June 2015

    contract was trading at Rs. 4,020 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.5 per cent, after opening at Rs.

    3,992 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,000. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,990

    till the trading. (At 12.25 PM today). Traders attributed recovery in castroseed prices to

    emergence of buying at lower levels in spot markets. Castor oil, extracted from castor seed is

    the largest vegetable oil exported out of India.

    Jeera

    Jeera prices closed higher by 1.34 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity &

    Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the

    commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for

    June 2015 contract closed at Rs. 16,590 per quintal, up by 1.34 per cent, after opening at Rs.

    16,470 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,370. It touched the intra-day high of Rs.

    16,470. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical

    markets and some export enquiries.

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