MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-SEP-2016 122 111 110 109 109 108 108 107 106

COPPER 31-SEP-2015 336 333 330 328 327 325 324 321 318

CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-2016 3461 3314 3167 3072 3020 2925 2873 2726 2579

GOLD 05-OCT-2016 31714 31569 31424 31352 31279 31207 31134 30989 30844

LEAD 30-SEP-2016 134 132 130 128 128 126 126 124 122

NATURAL GAS

26-AUG-2016 215 209 203 200 197 194 191 185 179

NICKEL 30-SEP-2016 744 731 718 712 705 699 692 679 666

SILVER 04-SEP-2015 49160 48431 47702 47259 46973 46530 46244 45515 44786

ZINC 05-DEC-2016 160 157 154 153 151 150 148 145 142

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-SEP-2016 122 117 112 110 105 102 97 92

COPPER 31-AUG-2015 346 339 332 330 325 323 318 311 304

CRUDE OIL 19-AUG-2015 3621 3414 3207 3092 3000 2885 2793 2586 2739

GOLD 05-OCT-2015 32784 32245 31706 31494 31167 30955 30628 30089 29550

LEAD 30-SEP-2015 144 139 134 130 129 125 124 119 114

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015 241 227 213 204 199 190 185 171 157

NICKEL 30-SEP-2016 864 806 748 727 690 669 632 574 516

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 52736 50721 48706 47761 46691 45746 44676 42661 40646

ZINC 30-SEP-2016 168 162 156 154 150 148 144 138 132

Monday, 26 September 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31402 TGT 31709 SL 31098

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 31117 TGT 31444 SL 30797- MADE HIGH OF 31380

BUY CRUDEOIL OCT ABOVE 2999 TGT 3091 SL 2914 - TGT ACHEIVED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 29 AUG 2016 67.40 67.20 67 66.80 66.60 66.40 66.20 66 65.80

EURINR 29 AUG 2016 75.45 75.25 75.05 74.85 74.65 74.45 74.25 74.05 73.85

GBPINR 29 AUG 2016 87.60 87.40 87.20 87 86.80 86.60 86.40 86.20 86

JPYINR 29 AUG 2016 66.85 66.65 66.45 66.25 66 65.80 65.60 65.40 65.20

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 29 AUG 2016 67.80 67.50 67.20 66.90 66.60 66.30 66 65.70 65.40

EURINR 29 AUG 2016 75.80 75.50 75.20 74.90 74.60 74.30 74 73.70 73.40

GBPINR 29 AUG 2016 88 87.70 87.40 87.10 86.80 86.50 86.20 85.90 85.60

JPYINR 29 AUG 2016 67.20 66.90 66.60 66.30 66 65.70 65.40 65.10 64.80

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY EURINR OCT ABOVE 75.63 TGT 76.26 SL 74.98

SELL JPYINR OCT BELOW 66.10 TGT 65.40 SL 66.80

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY GBPINE SEP ABOVE 88.90 TGT 89.60 SL 88.20 - NOT EXECUTED

BUY EURINR SEP ABOVE 75.15 TGT 75.65 SL 74.64 - NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-OCT-2016 706 691 676 668 661 653 646 631 616

SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-2016 3416 3349 3282 3241 3215 3174 3148 3081 3014

RMSEED 20-OCT-2016 4878 4820 4762 4730 4704 4672 4646 4588 4530

JEERAUNJHA 20-OCT-2016 18342 17967 17592 17368 17217 16993 16842 16467 16092

GUARSEED10 20-OCT-2016 3867 3795 3723 3679 3651 3607 3579 3507 3435

TMC 20-OCT-2016 7264 7138 7012 6948 6886 6822 6760 6634 6508

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-OCT-2016 713 696 679 669 662 652 645 628 611

SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-2016 3692 3542 3392 3297 3242 3147 3092 2942 2792

RMSEED 20-OCT-2016 5141 5003 4865 4781 4727 4643 4589 4451 4313

JEERAUNJHA20-OCT-2016 20748 19988 19228 18902 18468 18142 17708 16948 16188

GUARSEED1020-OCT-2015 4183 4026 3869 3792 3712 3635 3555 3398 3241

TMC 20-OCT-2016 8815 8457 8099 7909 7741 7551 7383 7025 6667

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 17600 TGT 18000 SL 17200

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL

BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 18000 TGT 18500 SL 17500 - NOT EXECUTED

SELL GUARSEED OCT BELOW 3648 TGT 3544 SL 3751 - CLOSED AT 3636

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ BULLION

The finance ministry is considering introducing measures to stop malpractices of importing pure gold

under that garb of dore bars or unrefined gold. It may ask jewellers and refiners to follow know your

supplier, clients norms prescribed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

and adhere to the anti-money laundering law. The move comes after some instances came to light

where pure gold was imported as dore. Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association also wrote to the

government to address this issue. Customs duty on dore is of 8.75 per cent while for pure gold it is 10

per cent. IBJA has proposed, “that gold refiners follow stringent client acceptance procedures.

Refiners shall be asked to commit to gold supply chain policy consistent with Annex II of OECD

due-diligence guidelines.” It said gold dore should be sourced only from mining companies that

comply with the guidelines and this should be made an integral part of the import license issued by

Directorate General of Foreign Trade.

Demand for gold in India remained lacklustre this week as higher prices hampered consumer

purchases, but discounts narrowed due to a correction in overseas rates. The safe-haven bullion has

fallen over one per cent this week despite a mixed bag of US economic data ahead of next week’s US

Federal Reserve policy meeting. In India, the world’s second-biggest gold consumer, discounts on

official domestic prices came down this week to $ 20 an ounce, from last week's $ 32. “Some

customers are replacing old jewellery for new, but fresh demand is still weak,” said Kumar Jain, vice-

president, Mumbai Jewellers Association. In the past few months, demand in India has remained

sluggish due to higher prices and as droughts hit purchases in some rural areas. India’s gold imports

in August plunged 77.5 per cent from a year earlier to $1.12 billion. Gold prices in India are trading

around Rs 30,865 per 10 grams on Friday, after it fell 1.6 per cent in the previous eight sessions.

“People are waiting for a correction. By this month-end, retail demand is likely to improve,” Jain

said. Demand for gold is expected to strengthen in the final quarter as India gears up for the wedding

season as well as festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra, when buying the precious metal is

considered auspicious.“Jewellers are slowly building inventory for festive season. Some jewellers are

postponing purchases, hoping prices will fall below $1,300 ,” said a Mumbai-based bank dealer.

Buyers in China and Hong Kong stayed away from the market as a mid-Autumn Festival holiday

shuttered trade on Thursday and Friday. In Singapore, premiums rose about 80 cents from 50-60

cents last week.“With prices going down we hope that some demand will emerge. We have started

seeing some queries and movement in the metal, but these are early days,” a Singapore-based metals

trader said. The Tokyo market, too, remained quiet as public interest was very limited this week,

keeping the premium at zero, traders said.

Last week, spot gold prices rose by 1.8 percent to close at $1337.2 per ounce after the U.S. Federal

Reserve decision to keep interest rates on hold sent the dollar to its lowest level since the start of last

week. The Fed stayed pat on rates but indicated it could still tighten monetary policy in the world's

biggest economy by the end of the year. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-

backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.69 percent to 950.92 tonnes last week. On the MCX, gold prices

rose by 1.2 percent to close at Rs.31281 per 10 gms. Spot silver prices rose by 2.7 percent last week

to close at $19.7 per ounce in line with rise in gold prices and weakness in dollar index. On the MCX,

silver prices rose by 1.7 percent to close at Rs.46817 per kg

✍ ENERGY

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, supported by a reported draw in US crude inventories and by firm

import data from Japan. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 1.8 per cent, or 81 cents,

at $ 44.86 a barrel at 0403 GMT. The October contract expired yesterday at $ 43.44 a barrel and the

front-month has now rolled over to November delivery. Traders said that the main WTI price driver

had been American Petroleum Institute data showing a 7.5 million barrel draw to 507.2 million

barrels in US crude inventories, the third weekly stock draw.Market participants had expected an

increase of 3.4 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll.Official storage data is due to be published

by the US Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday, and traders said they were also

eagerly anticipating a meeting by the US Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee which

might influence US interest rates.

WTI oil prices rose by 1.7 percent last week to close at $44.5 per barrel boosted as U.S. government

data showed a surprising crude inventory drop. U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that

crude stockpiles fell 6.2 million barrels last week, bringing the draw to more than 21 million barrels

for this month Also, Oil prices got more support from the dollar's slide a day after the Federal

Reserve kept U.S. interest rates unchanged. However, Crude futures gave back some gains after

Reuters reported that a two-day expert-level meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries on production cooperation had yielded no major breakthrough. The meeting was held in

advance of Sept. 26- 28 talks in Algeria between OPEC and other major oil producers to discuss a

potential output freeze. Also, news that Saudi may cut supply if Iran freezes output was supportive.

The Saudis pumped a record 10.69 million barrels a day in August, compared with 10.2 million in

January, Algeria wants major producers to cut their collective output by 1 million barrels a day.On the

MCX, oil prices rose by 2.8 percent to close at Rs.2978 per barrel

BASE METAL✍

Chinese Copper Output Jumps to Six-Month High as Capacity Grows China, the world’s top

producer of refined copper, boosted output to the highest level in at least six months as domestic

smelters

expanded capacity amid favourable margins. Production climbed to 743,000 metric tons in August

from 722,000 tons a month earlier and 663,000 tons last year, according to data from the National

Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Output rose 8.7 percent to a record 5.5 million tons in Jan - Aug,

data showed.

Copper futures traded 0.62 per cent higher at Rs 324.70 per kg today as speculators widened

positions amid firm global trend and higher domestic demand.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in November traded higher by Rs 2, or 0.62

per cent, at Rs 324.70 per kg, in a business turnover of 1,458 lots. Metal for delivery in far-month

February next year also rose by Rs 1.85, or 0.56 per cent to trade at Rs 330.60 per kg in 8 lots. Nickel

prices rose 1.04 per cent to Rs 702.70 per kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions

on positive cues from global markets. Besides, increased demand from alloy-makers in the domestic

spot market, supported the up trend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in

October traded higher by Rs 7.20, or 1.04 per cent, to Rs 7,092.70 per kg, in a business turnover of

115 lots.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange has said on Tuesday that 12 per cent of coriander

stock failed to pass the test in an independent audit commissioned by the exchange. Stored in

NCDEX accredited warehouses in Ramganj Mandi and Kota, these storages are managed by National

Bulk Handling Corporation. Responding to the concerns around quality of the coriander stocks

deposited in the approved warehouses, NCDEX conducted a 100 per cent sampling and audit of the

stocks deposited at the NBHC warehouses at Kota and Ramganj Mandi. Testing of all the 2240

tonnes has shown that 1410 tonnes conforms to the exchange specifications on all parameters. Out of

the remaining 830 tonnes, 270 tonnes failed on the parameter of damaged / discolour seeds and 10

tonnes had splits above the acceptable level, while 10 tonnes had weevil led seeds marginally above

0.5 per cent. The balance stocks of 540 tonnes showed moisture slightly exceeding permissible level

of 9 per cent. "NCDEX is fully committed to ensuring good delivery of commodities. We remain

vigilant about the stocks deposited in our warehouses and have suitable checks and controls in place

to ensure adherence to our norms. The trust of our participants and the safety and quality of our

deliveries is our foremost priority. There is absolutely nothing to worry for the buyer on the quality

front. Having completed the independent audit, we find that there isn't a quality issue at the level as it

as was made out to be. We have found some issues which we will ensure will get addressed through

the remat testing process of the buyers," said Samir Shah, MD & CEO, NCDEX.

Edible Oils mayTurn 9% Cheaper by Jan’17 The reduction in import duty of crude and refined palm

oils means consumers could see retail price of palm oil, the largest consumed cooking medium, fall at

least 6.4/litre by January 2017, futures market price trends on the weekend indicated. That’s around₹

9% lower in Mumbai and Chennai from 70₹ 73/litre currently. The government on Friday cut import

duty on crude palm and refined palm oil by 5 percentage points to 7.5% and 15%. The move upset

the edible oil industry which asked for a 15% differential to protect the local refining industry but

will provide respite to householders. Of the total imports at 15 million tonnes, palm accounts for 9

million tonnes, soya oil, sunflower oil, etc, the rest, said Atul Chaturvedi, presi d e nt o f t he S o l ve

nt Extractors’ Association, the nodal industry body

India cuts import taxes on wheat, palm oil, refined oils India has cut import taxes on wheat, crude

palm oil and refined vegetable oils, a finance ministry order showed on Friday, as part of efforts to

curb food inflation. New Delhi lowered the wheat import tax to 10 percent from 25 percent and cut

the import duty on both crude palm oil and refined edible oils by five percentage points to 7.5 and 15

percent respectively, the order on a government website, showed. Wheat output in India, the world's

second-biggest producer, has fallen well below the peak of 2014/15, reducing stocks to the lowest

level in nearly a decade and pushing domestic prices close to record highs. Private trade in India

has already imported about 600,000 tonnes of wheat in 2016, the most in nine years.

MSP hike may induce farmers to expand cultivation area The government has finally reduced the

import duty on wheat to 10 per cent from 25 per cent, probably after a late realisation that everything

is not that rosy as projected by the agriculture ministry. The government in August released the fourth

advance estimates of crops output wherein wheat production was pegged at 93.5 million tonne for

2015-16. The previous estimate, released in May, had estimated the harvest at 94.04 million tonne.

The government is not inclined to accept private reports that have estimated wheat production at

about 85 million tonne. Last year, the government had released its first wheat estimate at 95.76

million tonne, which was revised downwards to 90.78 million tonne. Again it was cut to 88.94

million tonne and finally to 86.53 million tonne. On the other hand, private traders and industry had

maintained their forecast at about 85 million tonne throughout the year.

NCDEX to levy 25% special margin on sugar buy side from The National Commodity and

Derivatives Exchange will impose a 25% special cash margin on buy positions of all running and yet-

to-belaunched

sugar contracts barring the October contract, effective Thursday, the exchange said in a circular late

Tuesday. The exchange will also levy a 10% cash margin on sugar long positions of October contract

from Thursday, a senior official with the bourses said. On Aug 11, the bourses had hiked the margin

to 51% from 20% earlier. The total margin-- additional, special margin including cash margin--for

buying sugar on the exchange now stands at 61% for the October contract and 75% for other

contracts, while the margin on selling sugar on all contracts is 21%, the official added. Tuesday,

October delivery sugar on NCDEX settled at 3,582 rupees per 100 kg, down 0.4% from previous

close, while December contract ended at 3,698 rupees, down 0.2%..

Cotton futures gained almost 50 per cent between March and July, triggered by short supply in the

domestic market. The price had touched a peak of 23,570/bale in July and is currently at₹

Rs.20,530/bale. Cotton prices moderated in August on reports of favourable weather in top producing

nations such as India and the US. However, concerns over depleting stocks, higher consumption

demand and prospects of better US exports limited the extent of price correction. The USDA puts

global cotton output at 20.99 million tonnes for 2015-16, 19 per cent down over 2014-15. With lower

production and almost the same level of consumption, carry-forward stocks have reduced noticeably

to 21.45 mt in 2015-16, down for the first time since 2010-11. However, the global output situation is

expected to go up to 22.31 mt in 2016-17 with likely higher produce from the US, Pakistan and

Australia.

Agri-commodities to see mixed price trend A better monsoon and record output estimate of kharif

crop are likely to bring in bearishness in the agri-commodity counters. On the other hand, festive

demand can lend some support for prices. Analysts expect mixed trend in agri-commodities for the

near- to medium-term. The Indian meteorological department had earlier predicted above-normal

monsoon this year. But as per the latest data available, the rainfall has been four per cent deficient,

but much better than past two years of drought. “Some of the kharif crops have seen considerable

bearishness in the past few months. But the impact of monsoon on prices is over for most of them.

Rainfall could continue to impact only select commodities like cardamom and turmeric. Turmeric is

down 12.7 per cent between June and September. The prices were up 5.6 per cent in June, but they

India is working on an agreement with South Africa to import pulses to meet its domestic

consumption requirements and curb price rise. South Africa had sent a draft memorandum of

understanding to the Indian government regarding procurement of pulses and lentil. It also urged

neighbouring China, part of the five-nation BRICS grouping to import a wide range of items from it

such as rice, sugar, maize and dried grapes.

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