AUG 06 VarengoldbankFX Daily Report

8/9/2019 AUG 06 VarengoldbankFX Daily Report

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www.varengoldbankfx.com Intelligent Investments

Friday, August 06, 2010

Good morning from beautiful Hamburg and welcome to the last Daily FX Report of this week.

Today, we are going to report about the weak U.S economy and the negative effect on their

currency. On the other hand, the fast economic recovery in Europe astonishes the market.

Anyways, we wish you a nice and sunny weekend as well and a successful last trading day.

Market Review Fundamental Perspective

The market expects that a U.S. report will reveal today, that the number of U.S. lost jobs

increased for a second month. Yesterday, a report showed that initial jobless claims rose 19,000

to 479,000 in the week ended in the past month, which is the most since April. This could set the

Federal Reserve under pressure to take extra steps to keep borrowing costs low. On top of that

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz criticized that the U.S. economic recovery is

anemic and demanded for a better-designed stimulus package. As a result of that the USD is

close to a weekly decrease versus 15 of its 16 most-traded counterparts. The JPY traded near to

an eight-month high against the USD and was at 85.85. Economists prognosticated that a

German report will indicate industrial production rose for a fourth month. Even European Central

Bank President Trichet is astonished about the fast recovery in Europe. Trichet said that the

interest rate is appropriate and will therefore stay at a record low at 1 percent. Based on that the

EUR was close to a three month high against the USD and traded at 1.3182. The EUR/USD

already gained 11 percent after it had reached a 4 year low in June.

Australias currency was close to a three month high versus the USD. The AUD/USD climbed

1.2 percent this weekand tradedat 0.9150. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release today its

quarterly statement on monetary policy whereat the economists do not expect any changes in

central banks growth and inflation prognoses. New Zealands currency is close to a secondweekly los versus the JPY. The NZD/JPY was at 62.66 and the NZD/USD traded at 0.7299.

Based on speculations that a report today will show that jobs were added in July for a seventh

straight month, Canadas currency strengthened to a two-month high versus the USD. The

USD/CAD already fell 2.6 percent since July 20th and traded at 1.0108.


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Daily Technical Analysis (In this section we provide chart analysis)

Our Focus Currencies for Today

GBP/JPY (4 Hour)

As you can see the GBP/NZD succeeded to enter the fan again but rebounded at its resistance

level around 2.1831. It remains to be seen if the pair can cross this level and enter the upper line

of the fan or if the bears take control again and pull the pair down.

Intraday Support & Resistance (4 Hour)

Support Levels around Resistance Levels around

2.1632 2.1831

2.1126 2.2026

2.0739 2.2160


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AUD/NZD (1 Day)

Since the beginning of April, the currency pair has been trading along a bearish Fibonacci fan.After reaching its lowest level for the past eight months, the AUD/NZD recovered and crossed

the upper line of the upward trend channel. The RSI shows as an overbought market, so we

might stay bearish if the pair rebounds at its resistance level around 1.2597.

Intraday Support & Resistance (1 Day)


1.2385 1.3115

1.2197 1.2756

1.2095 1.2597


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EUR/USD (1 Day)

The EUR/USD has recently crossed its support level around 1.2989 and is continuing to climb in

a bullish trend channel. The Stochastic indicator signifies a trend reversal so we might stay

bearish if the pair does not cross its resistance level aroung 1.3407

Intraday Support & Resistance (1 Day)


1.3101 1.3407

1.2669 N/A

1.2462 N/A


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GBP/JPY (4 Hour)

The bulls took control of GBP/JPY, after the pair had reached the lowest level since February

2009. The GBP/JPY went up inside an upward trend channel and rebounded at its resistance

level around 137.72. We might see further gains if the pair succeeds to break through the

resistance line.



1.3605 137.72

131.11 139.58

126.77 144.79


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CAD/JPY (4 Hour)

After the CAD/JPY rebounded at its resistance line around 86.45 (38.2), it dropped down to its

support around 81.71 (0.0), which is the lowest level since the beginning of April. We may see

further wins if the pair crosses the resistance line around 84.65 (23.6).



83.04 84.65

81.71 86.45

N/A 87.94


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Daily Calendar & Key FX Events

Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last

06.08.2010 10:00 GE Industrial production (MoM) 2.6%

06.08.2010 10:00 GE Industrial production (YoY) 12.4%

06.08.2010 11:00 CA Unemployment rate 7.9%

06.08.2010 11:00 CA Participation rate 67.4

06.08.2010 11:00 CA Full time employment rate 48.9

06.08.2010 12:30 US Change in private payrolls 83K

06.08.2010 12:30 US Change in nonfarm payrolls -125K

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AUG 06 VarengoldbankFX Daily Report

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