AUG 10 Danske Commodities Daily

8/9/2019 AUG 10 Danske Commodities Daily

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Investment ResearchGeneral Market Conditions

Commodities news

Overview Commodities a little softer this morning after minor gains yesterday.Equity markets gained in the US but lost steam in Asian trading. Bank of Japan kept

its liquidity measures and the overnight rate unchanged. Chinas trade surplus climbed

to an 18-month high in July. FOMC meeting in focus today. EIA kicks off with first

oil-market report this week.

Grains Wheat prices declined further on Monday after speculation that Russia mayreview recently introduced curbs on grain exports in October. However, separately,

there was talk about the export ban being extended beyond 31 December and

President Putin noted that a range of regions were currently unable to start sowing

winter wheat. Notwithstanding, the OECD has joined the UN in stressing that the

current situation is not comparable to the upheaval in global commodity markets in

2007/08 that sparked food inflation and social unrest.

Cross commodities July Chinese trade data showed that while exports rose by arecord 38% y/y, imports were markedly weaker, up a mere 23% y/y. On the month,

imports actually fell 0.4% as buying of a range of commodities declined. Notably,

crude oil was down 15% m/m and aluminium fell 10%; in contrast, copper managed

to post a small rise in imports of 4%. While the import data may underestimate

Chinese appetite for commodities, see China's Ore Demand Flies Under the Radar,

these data do put focus on the potential downside to not least base metals should the

Chinese property bubble burst.

Chinese imports: aluminium continues to decline, copper slightly up

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

10 August 2010

Todays key points

EIA Short-Term Outlook FOMC meeting API stock report

Commodities Daily

Commodities overview

Contract Last price %, d/d

WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 81.0 0.4

Brent, ICE 1. pos 80.4 0.3

Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 214.7 0.0

Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 211.0 -0.1

Aluminium, LME 3M 2170 -1.0

Copper, LME 3M 7371 0.0

Lead, LME 3M 2180 0.9

Nickel, LME 3M 22615 2.3

Zinc, LME 3M 2136 0.3Steel, LME 3M 505 0.4

Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 560 0.0

Gold, spot 1200 -0.4

Silver, spot 18 -0.8

Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 713.3 -1.7

Corn, CBOT 1. pos 400.0 -1.2

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen+45 4521 [email protected]

Senior Analyst

Christin Tuxen+45 [email protected]

Commodities Sales:

Senior Dealer

Martin Vorgod+45 4514 3286

[email protected]

Vice President

Fredrik berg+45 4514 [email protected]

Bloomberg: DRFX
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703314904575399562576908060.html?mod=WSJ_Commodities_LEFTTopNewshttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703314904575399562576908060.html?mod=WSJ_Commodities_LEFTTopNews


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Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

This year

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD

Energy (1. pos):

NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 81.0 -0.6 81.5 1.0 76.1 6.5 70.6 14.8 2.1

ICE Brent ($/bbl) 80.4 -0.7 81.0 1.0 75.4 6.6 73.5 9.4 3.2

NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 214.7 -0.3 215.4 0.3 202.6 6.0 192.8 11.4 1.3

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 211.0 -0.4 211.9 0.3 207.0 1.9 202.7 4.1 2.8

ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 675.5 -0.7 680.5 0.3 644.3 4.9 605.5 11.6 6.3

ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 738.3 -0.4 741.1 0.1 701.3 5.3 659.5 12.0 5.4

TTF NL Natural Gas (/mwh) 19.0 1.9 18.7 -1.3 21.2 -10.2 9.7 96.7 46.2

Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.3 0.1 4.3 -3.5 4.4 -2.0 3.6 18.5 -22.6

Nordpool electricity (/mwh) 46.2 3.2 44.8 0.9 47.3 -2.3 - - -

Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 479.8 0.4 478.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3

Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 452.8 0.5 450.5 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2

API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 94.4 -0.3 94.8 -0.3 93.7 0.8 70.8 33.4 14.8

ICE ECX Carbon Emission (/tn) 14.6 2.4 14.2 -0.8 14.7 -0.5 14.7 -1.1 16.3

Base metals:

Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 2170 -0.5 2182 -0.4 2004 8.3 1969 10.2 -2.7

Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 7371 -0.7 7425 0.7 6760 9.0 6135 20.2 -0.1

Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 2180 -0.9 2200 1.8 1845 18.2 1874 16.3 -10.4

Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 22615 -0.8 22800 3.2 19500 16.0 20200 12.0 22.1

Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 2136 -0.7 2150 1.0 1904 12.2 1850 15.4 -16.6

Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 505 1.0 500 -0.6 430 17.4 410 23.2 23.3

Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 560 0.0 560 0.0 600 -6.7 500 12.0 1.8

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.):

Gold 1200 0.0 1201 -0.4 1211.0 -0.9 946.8 26.8 9.3

Silver 18 0.1 18 -0.8 18.1 1.2 14.4 26.8 8.1

Agriculturals (1. pos):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 713.3 0.1 712.5 -1.8 523.5 36.2 494.3 44.3 31.7

Matif Mill Wheat (/ton) 214.3 1.8 210.5 -6.2 150.0 42.8 123.0 74.2 63.2

CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 400.0 -0.7 403.0 -0.5 375.3 6.6 324.3 23.4 -3.5

CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1047.0 -0.1 1048.5 -1.0 1025.5 2.1 1170.5 -10.6 0.7

NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 17.7 -2.8 18.2 -0.3 16.6 6.7 20.8 -14.8 -34.2

Commo dity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 271 -0.2 272 -1.1 255 6.3 260 4.1 -2.9

S&P GSCI 4320 -0.4 4338 0.3 4065 6.3 4357 -0.8 -4.7

Reuters CRB 274 0.0 275 -1.1 260 5.4 264 3.9 -3.0

Rogers commodity index 3254 0.2 3248 -1.4 3004 8.3 3038 7.1 -0.6

DJ-AIG 135 -0.2 135 -1.1 127 6.3 130 4.0 -3.0

S&P GSCI Energy 953 0.6 948 -1.7 902 5.7 1002 -4.9 -6.2S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1666 0.7 1655 -0.1 1504 10.8 1497 11.3 -2.4

S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1550 -0.3 1556 0.5 1561 -0.7 1247 24.3 8.9

S&P GSCI Agriculture 604 -0.8 609 -2.7 533 13.5 564 7.1 -1.8

Yesterday Month ago Year ago10.08.2010

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.


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Commodities Daily

Energy

Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos


WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve



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Commodities Daily

Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads


CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos


Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos



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Commodities Daily

Metals

Aluminium Aluminium forward curve


Copper Copper forward curve


Nickel Nickel forward curve



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Commodities Daily

Zinc Zinc forward curve


Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel


Gold and silver Gold forward curve



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Commodities Daily

Grains

Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe


Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT


Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT



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Commodities Daily

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AUG 10 Danske Commodities Daily

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