AUG 06 Commodities Daily

8/9/2019 AUG 06 Commodities Daily

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Investment ResearchGeneral Market Conditions

Commodities news

Overview In the last 24 hours, there has been a lot of attention on wheat prices.Yesterday, Russia announced an export ban on wheat, in effect from 15 August and

lasting for the rest of the year. After the announcement, wheat prices soared in both

Europe and the US. US prices ended limit-up (8%) and in Europe prices hit a record

of EUR235 per tonne on record trading volumes. Both base metal and energy prices

fell slightly yesterday, after US equities fell marginally.

Wheat Prices continued higher in Asian times, but this afternoon we have seen someprofit-taking. CBOT prices have again fallen below USc800 per bushel, after tradingas high as USc 841. Matif Wheat in Paris is trading more less unchanged compared

with yesterday. It seems that the market is increasingly focusing on the fact that

global wheat stocks are in fact quite large compared with the 2007/08 season see

the chart below. We think that the market is correct in taking a breather. In the light

of the wheat stocks, the latest price strength seems a bit overdone and we would not

be surprised to see prices falling slightly in the next couple of days, provided that

new countries do not introduce export bans.

The all-important US non-farm payrolls report that has just been released, which inour view was disappointing. US payrolls fell by 131k, but the main culprit was 143k

fewer publicly-employed census people, implying that private employment rose by

71k well below the 150-200k readings we saw in the spring. The number could

further fuel double-dip fears in the US and weigh on business cycle sensitive

commodities. However, the dollar is also suffering, mitigating the growth effect on

dollar-denominated prices. The United Arab Emirates government acknowledged today that an oil tanker was

indeed attacked by terrorists four days ago. See CNN story. Together with

Lebanon/Israel tensions and Iran, this might indicate that geo-politics is about to

return to the oil agenda in the next few days.

Huge stocks should dampen panic in global wheat markets

Source: USDA * Estimates by USDA

06 August 2010

Todays key points

US: Non-farm payrolls report

Commodities Daily

Commodities overview

Contract Last price %, d/d

WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 81.8 -0.8

Brent, ICE 1. pos 81.1 -1.4

Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 217.8 -1.1

Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 215.8 -0.8

Aluminium, LME 3M 2222 -0.3

Copper, LME 3M 7440 -0.9

Lead, LME 3M 2197 -2.1

Nickel, LME 3M 22159 1.0

Zinc, LME 3M 2131 0.5Steel, LME 3M 503 0.2

Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 560 -3.4

Gold, spot 1195 0.0

Silver, spot 18 -1.0

Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 796.8 9.8

Corn, CBOT 1. pos 397.5 -0.7

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets

Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen+45 4521 [email protected]

Senior Analyst

Christin Tuxen+45 [email protected]

Commodities Sales:

Senior Dealer

Martin Vorgod+45 4514 3286

[email protected]

Vice President

Fredrik berg+45 4514 [email protected]

Bloomberg: DRFX
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/08/06/uae.tanker.explosion/?hpt=Sbin&wom=false#fbid=Tte4jlOLeBV&wom=truehttp://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/08/06/uae.tanker.explosion/?hpt=Sbin&wom=false#fbid=Tte4jlOLeBV&wom=truehttp://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/08/06/uae.tanker.explosion/?hpt=Sbin&wom=false#fbid=Tte4jlOLeBV&wom=true


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Commodities Daily

Commodity price movements

This year

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD

Energy (1. pos):

NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 81.8 -0.3 82.0 -0.6 72.0 13.6 71.9 13.7 3.0

ICE Brent ($/bbl) 81.1 -0.6 81.6 -0.7 71.4 13.5 74.8 8.4 4.0

NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 217.8 -0.4 218.7 -0.7 191.7 13.6 193.7 12.5 2.8

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 215.8 -0.3 216.4 -0.5 197.1 9.5 206.1 4.7 5.1

ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 683.3 -0.7 688.0 -0.8 623.3 9.6 611.0 11.8 7.5

ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 746.4 -0.6 750.6 -0.6 666.8 11.9 660.6 13.0 6.6

TTF NL Natural Gas (/mwh) 18.9 0.0 18.9 -1.6 21.3 -11.3 9.6 97.3 45.4

Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.6 0.0 4.6 -2.9 4.7 -1.8 3.7 22.8 -17.5

Nordpool electricity (/mwh) 44.6 0.6 44.4 0.1 46.8 -4.6 - - -

Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 479.5 -0.5 482.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3

Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 450.0 -0.6 452.5 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2

API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 94.8 -0.2 94.9 -0.3 93.3 1.6 71.0 33.5 13.8

ICE ECX Carbon Emission (/tn) 14.3 -0.4 14.3 0.1 15.2 -5.9 14.8 -3.4 14.0

Base metals:

Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 2222 1.0 2200 -1.3 1995 11.4 1990 11.7 -0.4

Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 7440 0.6 7399 -1.4 6605 12.6 6025 23.5 0.9

Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 2197 0.5 2185 -2.6 1780 23.4 1855 18.4 -9.7

Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 22159 1.3 21875 -0.3 18900 17.2 19600 13.1 19.6

Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 2131 1.6 2097 -1.1 1850 15.2 1850 15.2 -16.8

Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 503 0.0 503 0.2 420 19.8 415 21.2 22.8

Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 560 0.0 560 -3.4 610 -8.2 500 12.0 1.8

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.) :

Gold 1195 -0.1 1197 0.1 1210.5 -1.3 960.6 24.4 8.2

Silver 18 0.0 18 -0.9 17.9 2.7 14.7 25.2 7.7

Agriculturals (1. pos):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 796.8 1.4 785.8 8.3 492.8 61.7 500.3 59.3 47.1

Matif Mill Wheat (/ton) 224.5 6.9 210.0 2.8 145.8 54.0 126.0 78.2 71.0

CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 397.5 -1.5 403.5 0.8 360.0 10.4 332.5 19.5 -4.1

CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1057.0 0.2 1055.0 0.2 964.3 9.6 1170.5 -9.7 1.7

NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 18.4 0.8 18.3 -3.1 16.7 10.5 19.8 -6.9 -31.6

Commo dity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 275 -0.1 275 1.2 249 10.4 262 5.1 -1.6

S&P GSCI 4389 -0.2 4397 -0.3 3909 12.3 4406 -0.4 -3.2

Reuters CRB 278 -0.5 279 0.8 254 9.4 264 5.0 -1.9

Rogers commodity index 3290 -0.1 3294 0.1 2901 13.4 3056 7.7 0.5

DJ-AIG 137 -0.1 137 1.2 124 10.4 130 4.9 -1.7

S&P GSCI Energy 964 -0.7 971 0.0 862 11.8 1023 -5.8 -5.1S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1657 -1.3 1679 1.1 1435 15.5 1527 8.5 -2.9

S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1547 0.3 1543 0.5 1556 -0.5 1256 23.2 8.7

S&P GSCI Agriculture 626 2.6 610 3.2 515 21.5 578 8.3 1.7

Yesterday Month ago Year ago06.08.2010

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.


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Commodities Daily

Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos


Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos



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Commodities Daily

Metals

Aluminium Aluminium forward curve


Copper Copper forward curve


Nickel Nickel forward curve



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Commodities Daily

Zinc Zinc forward curve


Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel


Gold and silver Gold forward curve



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Commodities Daily

Grains

Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe


Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT


Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT



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Commodities Daily

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AUG 06 Commodities Daily

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