AUG 03 DanskeCommodities Daily

8/9/2019 AUG 03 DanskeCommodities Daily

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Investment ResearchGeneral Market Conditions

Commodities news

Overview: Risk appetite higher as S&P500 closes at highest level in two and a halfmonths on strong earnings and better-than-feared economic data. Oil prices broke

firmly through the USD80 mark yesterday. EUR/USD reaches highest level since

early May on positive risk appetite. Xstrata Plc, the largest exporter of coal for power

generation, said in its quarterly report that first-half profit more than tripled as metal

prices jumped.

US: The ISM index fell less than expected in July, but the details were softer thansuggested by the headline as new orders index dropped to 53.5 the lowest since June

2009. With the inventory rising to 50.2, the forward-looking implications of the detail

are for a further decline in the ISM during H2 according to our economists. We

continue to see a slow deceleration as the most likely scenario and a relatively low

risk of a double-dip. Bottom line is thus that it is positive that the slowdown in the

manufacturing sector is taking place more slowly than feared, but there is little doubt

that the ISM will be lower in six months time.

Oil: With oil prices breaking the psychologically important USD80 mark yesterday,the way could be paved for a period with prices within the USD80-85 range. We do

not think this band will become well-established however, and look for a downward

correction late summer/early autumn as focus could quickly shift to the still rather

bleak fundamentals in the oil market. Indeed, US stocks have continued to creep

higher in recent weeks and, after a very strong May, US product demand growth has

fallen markedly. With the OECD forward demand cover a key indicator of tightness

in the market rising to an elevated 61 days in May, the recent surge in prices does

not seem justified by fundamental factors. That said, we still look for a final leg

higher in prices towards the end of the year, provided that industrial activity continues

to expand, driving not least distillate demand higher.

ICE Brent crude oil (last

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

03 August 2010

Todays key points

US factory orders API oil inventories

Commodities Daily

Commodities overview

Contract Last price %, d/d

WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 81.5 3.2

Brent, ICE 1. pos 80.9 3.5

Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 216.0 5.7

Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 217.0 3.0

Aluminium, LME 3M 2217 1.9

Copper, LME 3M 7424 1.7

Lead, LME 3M 2215 6.6

Nickel, LME 3M 21775 3.0

Zinc, LME 3M 2078 2.6Steel, LME 3M 480 0.5

Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 580 -0.9

Gold, spot 1183 0.2

Silver, spot 18 1.3

Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 695.0 5.1

Corn, CBOT 1. pos 392.8 0.0


Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen+45 4521 [email protected]

Senior Analyst

Christin Tuxen+45 [email protected]

Commodities Sales:

Senior Dealer

Martin Vorgod+45 4514 3286

[email protected]

Vice President

Fredrik berg+45 4514 [email protected]

Bloomberg: DRFX


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Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

This year

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD

Energy (1. pos):

NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 81.5 0.2 81.3 3.0 72.1 13.0 71.6 13.9 2.7

ICE Brent ($/bbl) 80.9 0.1 80.8 3.4 71.7 12.9 73.5 10.0 3.8

NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 216.0 0.3 215.4 5.4 191.5 12.7 187.1 15.4 1.9

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 217.0 0.0 216.9 2.9 197.8 9.7 206.9 4.8 5.7

ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 679.5 -0.1 680.0 4.9 613.8 10.7 591.5 14.9 6.9

ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 741.3 0.1 740.8 3.9 666.9 11.2 647.9 14.4 5.9

TTF NL Natural Gas (/mwh) 19.1 4.4 18.3 0.0 20.7 -7.7 9.7 97.9 46.9

Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.7 0.5 4.7 -4.5 4.7 0.8 4.0 17.2 -15.2

Nordpool electricity (/mwh) 44.1 1.4 43.4 0.0 46.8 -5.8 - - -

Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 481.3 4.8 459.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3

Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 451.3 4.2 433.0 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2

API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 96.1 2.3 93.9 0.2 96.5 -0.5 72.0 33.4 15.5

ICE ECX Carbon Emission (/tn) 14.5 0.1 14.5 2.4 15.4 -5.5 14.9 -2.3 15.8

Base metals:

Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 2217 0.0 2217 1.9 1937 14.5 1970 12.5 -0.6

Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 7424 -1.1 7510 2.9 6410 15.8 6000 23.7 0.7

Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 2215 0.0 2214 6.6 1753 26.4 1950 13.6 -8.9

Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 21775 -0.8 21950 3.8 18800 15.8 18830 15.6 17.5

Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 2078 -2.1 2122 4.8 1780 16.7 1844 12.7 -18.8

Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 480 -3.9 500 4.6 425 12.9 385 24.7 17.2

Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 580 0.0 580 -0.9 610 -4.9 480 20.8 5.5

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.) :

Gold 1183 0.0 1183 0.2 1209.4 -2.2 960.2 23.2 7.6

Silver 18 0.0 18 1.3 17.7 3.4 14.4 27.6 8.3

Agriculturals (1. pos):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 695.0 0.3 693.3 4.8 487.8 42.5 549.3 26.5 28.3

Matif Mill Wheat (/ton) 198.5 6.7 186.0 4.1 141.8 40.0 127.5 55.7 51.2

CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 392.8 0.6 390.5 -0.6 364.0 7.9 358.0 9.7 -5.2

CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1054.0 0.1 1053.3 0.1 962.8 9.5 1173.5 -10.2 1.4

NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 19.4 -0.9 19.6 0.4 16.7 16.2 18.6 4.2 -28.0

Commo dity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 272 1.0 270 1.8 249 9.4 263 3.4 -2.5

S&P GSCI 4351 2.3 4253 1.2 3905 11.4 4415 -1.5 -4.0

Reuters CRB 277 0.9 274 1.5 254 8.8 266 4.1 -2.2

Rogers commodity index 3251 0.0 3252 2.1 2898 12.2 3078 5.6 -0.7

DJ-AIG 136 1.0 134 1.8 124 9.4 131 3.3 -2.6

S&P GSCI Energy 957 2.7 932 0.8 862 11.0 979 -2.2 -5.8S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1676 3.0 1627 2.1 1435 16.9 1399 19.8 -1.8

S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1532 0.4 1527 1.2 1556 -1.5 1236 23.9 7.6

S&P GSCI Agriculture 600 1.2 593 3.1 515 16.4 563 6.5 -2.6

Yesterday Month ago Year ago03.08.2010



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Commodities Daily

Energy

Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos


WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve



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Commodities Daily

Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads


CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos


Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos



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Commodities Daily

Metals

Aluminium Aluminium forward curve


Copper Copper forward curve


Nickel Nickel forward curve



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Commodities Daily

Zinc Zinc forward curve


Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel


Gold and silver Gold forward curve



7/8


Commodities Daily

Grains

Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe


Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT


Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT



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Commodities Daily

DisclosureThis research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of

Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The authors of

this research report are Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst and Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst.

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high

quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the Danske

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Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report

Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology

as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be

obtained from the authors upon request.

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Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis

of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.

Expected updates

This publication is updated on a daily basis.

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using the closing price from the day before publication.

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AUG 03 DanskeCommodities Daily

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