1 Fertility Intentions in France and Russia Laurence Charton Marc Bloch University Strasbourg -...

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Fertility Intentions Fertility Intentions in France and Russiain France and Russia

Laurence ChartonMarc Bloch UniversityStrasbourg - France

Sergey SurkovIIPSMoscow - Russia

2

IntroductionIntroduction

In 2005, the Total Fertility Rate was 1.91 in France and 1.29 in Russia.

3

G1: Total fertility Rate, G1: Total fertility Rate, France-France-RussiaRussia, 1960-2005, 1960-2005

0,000,200,400,600,801,001,201,401,601,802,002,202,402,602,803,00

Years

TFR

France Russia

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Effective control of Fertility

The desire for children is the main catalyst of the process of procreation

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Analysis of the gap between France and Russia in the level of fertility by studying the intentions of fertility and “favorable” conditions for the birth of a first and a second child.

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Data and MethodsData and Methods

Objective Analyze the evolution of Intensity, Calendar and Conjugal Status at first and second birth

Data Women and Men Aged between 30 to 64 years

Methods Descriptive statistics - First and Second Rank Cumulated Fertility rate by sex and age groups - Median Age at first and second birth - Parental Conjugal Status at first and second birth, and at conception at first and second birth

1st STEP

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Data and MethodsData and Methods2nd STEP

Objective Analyze the Fertility Intention for childless people and people having one biological child

Data Women and Men Aged between 20 and 49 years Childless people and People having one biological child

Methods Descriptive Statistics - Fertility Intentions at the surveys and within 3 years (Positive

Fertility Intention, Negative FI, or do not know) Logistic Models (Positive FI/ Negative FI + do not know) 1) Past Experiences (Social and Family of Origin, number of previous unions) 2) Life Conditions (Sociodemographic characteristics, Marital status) 3) Projects of existence (Renewal of studies, stability of the relationship) 4) Conception of Family Life

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Data and MethodsData and Methods3rd STEP

Objective Analyze the factors influencing a first and a second biological birth Data Women and Men

Aged between 20-49 years Methods Semiparametric Models

Factors influencing the probability of 1st and 2nd biological birth 1) Social and Family of Origin (Occupation Status of parents, parental divorce, size of siblings, …) 2) Sociodemographic characteristics (Sex, Cohorts, …) 3) Factors changing over time - Two conjugal events have been considered For the model of the 2nd birth: 4) Sex of the first birth and Conjugal status at first birth

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G2: First rank cumulated fertility G2: First rank cumulated fertility rate by sex and age groups, France rate by sex and age groups, France

and Russiaand Russia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Exact Age

For 1

00 C

hild

less

Fem

ale

or M

en

30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64

FEMALE MALE

FRANCE RUSSIA FRANCE RUSSIA

10

G3: Second rank cumulated fertility G3: Second rank cumulated fertility rate by sex and age groups, France rate by sex and age groups, France

and Russiaand Russia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Exact Age

For 1

00 F

emal

e or

Men

hav

ing

one

biol

ogic

al c

hild

30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64

FEMALE MALE

FRANCE

RUSSIA

FRANCE

RUSSIA

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Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and Parental conjugal status at 1st birth and conception according to parental status conception according to parental status

at 1st birthat 1st birth

Country GenderAge

groups

Conjugal statusParental conjugal status at

conception1Parental conjugal status

at conception1

at 1st birth for child born inside marriage

for child born outside marriage

Mar-riage

Without mar-riage

Mar-riage

Out-side

unionCohabit

ationInside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 42.2 57.8 88.7 2.5 8.8 78.6 21.440-44 57.9 42.1 90.6 3.5 5.9 75.3 24.750-54 81.7 18.3 85.2 8.2 6.6 46.6 53.4

60-64 86.3 13.7 80.2 15.8 4.0 24.5 75.5

Women

30-34 48.5 51.5 89.8 1.9 8.3 75.9 24.1

40-44 62.9 37.1 83.7 5.6 10.7 66.8 33.2

50-54 78.8 21.2 81.5 14.0 4.5 37.5 62.5

60-64 87.3 12.7 89.0 9.6 1.4 15.4 84.6

Russia

Men

30-34 84.1 15.9 66.8 17.4 15.8 67.3 32.7

40-44 82.5 17.5 78.5 14.3 7.2 62.0 38.0

50-54 85.4 14.6 81.6 13.4 4.9 51.9 48.160-64 82.7 17.3 80.9 9.9 9.3 44.1 55.9

Women

30-34 73.4 26.6 70.3 17.6 12.1 52.2 47.8

40-44 81.5 18.5 75.3 13.9 10.8 46.0 54.050-54 79.3 20.7 83.6 9.1 7.3 46.9 53.1

60-64 80.7 19.3 87.6 7.3 5.1 44.3 55.7

12



Country GenderAge

groups



at conception1



Mar-riage

Without mar-riage

Mar-riage

Out-side

unionCohabit

ationInside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 42.2 57.8 88.7 2.5 8.8 78.6 21.440-44 57.9 42.1 90.6 3.5 5.9 75.3 24.750-54 81.7 18.3 85.2 8.2 6.6 46.6 53.4

60-64 86.3 13.7 80.2 15.8 4.0 24.5 75.5

Women

30-34 48.5 51.5 89.8 1.9 8.3 75.9 24.1

40-44 62.9 37.1 83.7 5.6 10.7 66.8 33.2

50-54 78.8 21.2 81.5 14.0 4.5 37.5 62.5

60-64 87.3 12.7 89.0 9.6 1.4 15.4 84.6

Russia

Men

30-34 84.1 15.9 66.8 17.4 15.8 67.3 32.7

40-44 82.5 17.5 78.5 14.3 7.2 62.0 38.0

50-54 85.4 14.6 81.6 13.4 4.9 51.9 48.160-64 82.7 17.3 80.9 9.9 9.3 44.1 55.9

Women

30-34 73.4 26.6 70.3 17.6 12.1 52.2 47.8

40-44 81.5 18.5 75.3 13.9 10.8 46.0 54.050-54 79.3 20.7 83.6 9.1 7.3 46.9 53.1

60-64 80.7 19.3 87.6 7.3 5.1 44.3 55.7

First Child born inside marriage

France Russia

Men

30-34 42.2 84.1

40-44 57.9 82.5

50-54 81.7 85.4

60-64 86.3 82.7

Wom

en

30-34 48.5 73.4

40-44 62.9 81.5

50-54 78.8 79.3

60-64 87.3 80.7

13



Country GenderAge

groups



at conception1



Mar-riage

Without mar-riage

Mar-riage

Out-side

unionCohabit

ationInside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 42.2 57.8 88.7 2.5 8.8 78.6 21.440-44 57.9 42.1 90.6 3.5 5.9 75.3 24.750-54 81.7 18.3 85.2 8.2 6.6 46.6 53.4

60-64 86.3 13.7 80.2 15.8 4.0 24.5 75.5

Women

30-34 48.5 51.5 89.8 1.9 8.3 75.9 24.1

40-44 62.9 37.1 83.7 5.6 10.7 66.8 33.2

50-54 78.8 21.2 81.5 14.0 4.5 37.5 62.5

60-64 87.3 12.7 89.0 9.6 1.4 15.4 84.6

Russia

Men

30-34 84.1 15.9 66.8 17.4 15.8 67.3 32.7

40-44 82.5 17.5 78.5 14.3 7.2 62.0 38.0

50-54 85.4 14.6 81.6 13.4 4.9 51.9 48.160-64 82.7 17.3 80.9 9.9 9.3 44.1 55.9

Women

30-34 73.4 26.6 70.3 17.6 12.1 52.2 47.8

40-44 81.5 18.5 75.3 13.9 10.8 46.0 54.050-54 79.3 20.7 83.6 9.1 7.3 46.9 53.1

60-64 80.7 19.3 87.6 7.3 5.1 44.3 55.7

First Child born inside marriage, conceived outside marriage

France Russia

Men

30-34 11.3 33.2

40-44 9.4 21.5

50-54 14.8 18.4

60-64 19.8 19.1

Wom

en

30-34 10.2 29.7

40-44 16.3 24.7

50-54 18.5 16.4

60-64 11.0 12.4

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Country GenderAge

groups



at conception1



Mar-riage

Without mar-riage

Mar-riage

Out-side

unionCohabit

ationInside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 42.2 57.8 88.7 2.5 8.8 78.6 21.440-44 57.9 42.1 90.6 3.5 5.9 75.3 24.750-54 81.7 18.3 85.2 8.2 6.6 46.6 53.4

60-64 86.3 13.7 80.2 15.8 4.0 24.5 75.5

Women

30-34 48.5 51.5 89.8 1.9 8.3 75.9 24.1

40-44 62.9 37.1 83.7 5.6 10.7 66.8 33.2

50-54 78.8 21.2 81.5 14.0 4.5 37.5 62.5

60-64 87.3 12.7 89.0 9.6 1.4 15.4 84.6

Russia

Men

30-34 84.1 15.9 66.8 17.4 15.8 67.3 32.7

40-44 82.5 17.5 78.5 14.3 7.2 62.0 38.0

50-54 85.4 14.6 81.6 13.4 4.9 51.9 48.160-64 82.7 17.3 80.9 9.9 9.3 44.1 55.9

Women

30-34 73.4 26.6 70.3 17.6 12.1 52.2 47.8

40-44 81.5 18.5 75.3 13.9 10.8 46.0 54.050-54 79.3 20.7 83.6 9.1 7.3 46.9 53.1

60-64 80.7 19.3 87.6 7.3 5.1 44.3 55.7

First Child born outside marriage inside cohabitation

France Russia

Men

30-34 78.6 67.3

40-44 75.3 62.0

50-54 46.6 51.9

60-64 24.5 44.1

Wom

en

30-34 75.9 52.2

40-44 66.8 46.0

50-54 37.5 46.9

60-64 15.4 44.3

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Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and Parental conjugal status at 2nd birth and conception according to parental status conception according to parental status

at 2nd birthat 2nd birth

Country Gender

Age groups


conception1

Parental conjugal status at

conception1

at 2nd birth for child born inside marriage


Mar-riage

Withoutmarrige

Mar-riage

Out-Side

UnionCoha-bitation

Inside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 56.9 43.1 98.9 0.0 1.1 86.6 13.440-44 68.6 31.4 94.2 0.0 5.8 85.8 14.250-54 84.4 15.6 97.4 0.9 1.7 59.4 40.660-64 91.3 8.7 97.9 1.5 0.6 52,1 47,9

Women

30-34 64.8 35.2 93.0 2.3 4.7 87.9 12.140-44 77.7 22.3 97.5 0.9 1.6 74.4 25.650-54 85.9 14.1 97.6 0.2 2.2 62.6 37.460-64 90.9 9.1 99.5 0.5 0.0 20,1 79,9

Russia

Men

30-34 84.2 15.8 90.6 3.1 6.3 88.9 11.140-44 90.4 9.6 98.6 0.9 0.5 60.9 39.150-54 88.3 11.7 98.5 0.5 1.0 74.1 25.960-64 88.3 11.7 97.2 0.9 1.9 57.1 42.9

Women

30-34 83.2 16.8 90.9 1.5 7.6 85.0 15.040-44 79.5 20.5 95.2 1.3 3.5 71.4 28.650-54 86.7 13.3 96.7 1.3 2.0 59.0 41.060-64 84.4 15.6 99.1 0.5 0.5 43.9 56.1

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Country GenderAge

groups



at conception1

at 2nd birth for child born inside marriage for child born outside marriage

Mar-riage

Withoutmarrige

Mar-riage

Out-Side

UnionCoha-bitation

Inside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 56.9 43.1 98.9 0.0 1.1 86.6 13.440-44 68.6 31.4 94.2 0.0 5.8 85.8 14.250-54 84.4 15.6 97.4 0.9 1.7 59.4 40.660-64 91.3 8.7 97.9 1.5 0.6 52,1 47,9

Women

30-34 64.8 35.2 93.0 2.3 4.7 87.9 12.140-44 77.7 22.3 97.5 0.9 1.6 74.4 25.650-54 85.9 14.1 97.6 0.2 2.2 62.6 37.460-64 90.9 9.1 99.5 0.5 0.0 20,1 79,9

Russia

Men

30-34 84.2 15.8 90.6 3.1 6.3 88.9 11.140-44 90.4 9.6 98.6 0.9 0.5 60.9 39.150-54 88.3 11.7 98.5 0.5 1.0 74.1 25.960-64 88.3 11.7 97.2 0.9 1.9 57.1 42.9

Women

30-34 83.2 16.8 90.9 1.5 7.6 85.0 15.040-44 79.5 20.5 95.2 1.3 3.5 71.4 28.650-54 86.7 13.3 96.7 1.3 2.0 59.0 41.060-64 84.4 15.6 99.1 0.5 0.5 43.9 56.1

2nd Child born inside marriage

France Russia

Men

30-34 56.9 84.2

40-44 68.6 90.4

50-54 84.4 88.3

60-64 91.3 88.3

Wom

en

30-34 64.8 83.2

40-44 77.7 79.5

50-54 85.9 86.7

60-64 90.9 84.4

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Country Gender

Age groups


conception1


conception1



Mar-riage

Withoutmarrige

Mar-riage

Out-Side

UnionCoha-bitation

Inside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 56.9 43.1 98.9 0.0 1.1 86.6 13.440-44 68.6 31.4 94.2 0.0 5.8 85.8 14.250-54 84.4 15.6 97.4 0.9 1.7 59.4 40.660-64 91.3 8.7 97.9 1.5 0.6 52,1 47,9

Women

30-34 64.8 35.2 93.0 2.3 4.7 87.9 12.140-44 77.7 22.3 97.5 0.9 1.6 74.4 25.650-54 85.9 14.1 97.6 0.2 2.2 62.6 37.460-64 90.9 9.1 99.5 0.5 0.0 20,1 79,9

Russia

Men

30-34 84.2 15.8 90.6 3.1 6.3 88.9 11.140-44 90.4 9.6 98.6 0.9 0.5 60.9 39.150-54 88.3 11.7 98.5 0.5 1.0 74.1 25.960-64 88.3 11.7 97.2 0.9 1.9 57.1 42.9

Women

30-34 83.2 16.8 90.9 1.5 7.6 85.0 15.040-44 79.5 20.5 95.2 1.3 3.5 71.4 28.650-54 86.7 13.3 96.7 1.3 2.0 59.0 41.060-64 84.4 15.6 99.1 0.5 0.5 43.9 56.1

2nd child born inside marriage, conceived outside marriage

France Russia

Men

30-34 1.1 9.4

40-44 5.8 1.4

50-54 2.6 1.5

60-64 2.1 2.8

Wom

en

30-34 7.0 9.1

40-44 2.5 4.8

50-54 2.4 3.3

60-64 0.5 0.9

18



Country Gender

Age groups


conception1


conception1



Mar-riage

Withoutmarrige

Mar-riage

Out-Side

UnionCoha-bitation

Inside Union

Outside union

France

Men

30-34 56.9 43.1 98.9 0.0 1.1 86.6 13.440-44 68.6 31.4 94.2 0.0 5.8 85.8 14.250-54 84.4 15.6 97.4 0.9 1.7 59.4 40.660-64 91.3 8.7 97.9 1.5 0.6 52,1 47,9

Women

30-34 64.8 35.2 93.0 2.3 4.7 87.9 12.140-44 77.7 22.3 97.5 0.9 1.6 74.4 25.650-54 85.9 14.1 97.6 0.2 2.2 62.6 37.460-64 90.9 9.1 99.5 0.5 0.0 20,1 79,9

Russia

Men

30-34 84.2 15.8 90.6 3.1 6.3 88.9 11.140-44 90.4 9.6 98.6 0.9 0.5 60.9 39.150-54 88.3 11.7 98.5 0.5 1.0 74.1 25.960-64 88.3 11.7 97.2 0.9 1.9 57.1 42.9

Women

30-34 83.2 16.8 90.9 1.5 7.6 85.0 15.040-44 79.5 20.5 95.2 1.3 3.5 71.4 28.650-54 86.7 13.3 96.7 1.3 2.0 59.0 41.060-64 84.4 15.6 99.1 0.5 0.5 43.9 56.1

2nd child born outside marriage inside cohabitation

France Russia

Men

30-34 86.6 (88.9)

40-44 85.8 (60.9)

50-54 59.4 (74.1)

60-64 52,1 (57.1)

Wom

en

30-34 87.9 (85.0)

40-44 74.4 (71.4)

50-54 62.6 (59.0)

60-64 20,1 (43.9)

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Fertility intentions for childless people by gender and age

groupsCountry Gender Age groups

Fertility intentions Unadjusted Numberdefinitely yes1 definitely not2 Rather yes, rather not

or do not know

France

Males

20-24 5.7 45.1 49.2 25625-29 28.9 15.6 55.5 21930-34 30.6 18.3 51.1 14635-39 24.2 37.2 38.6 9540-44 17.3 58.5 24.2 9845-49 12.4 75.1 12.5 78

Females

20-24 11.9 44.0 44.1 39725-29 33.3 12.8 53.9 24930-34 42.8 10.9 46.3 13335-39 37.7 31.4 30.9 8440-44 15.8 71.7 12.5 7845-49 2.4 94.1 3.5 73

Russia

Males

20-24 14.0 32.6 53.4 35025-29 24.6 14.7 60.7 19130-34 21.0 18.5 60.5 8135-39 13.2 35.9 50.9 5340-44 4.4 49.0 46.6 4545-49 0.0 53.3 46.7 30

Females

20-24 21.1 18.5 60.4 27525-29 36.8 11.4 51.8 11430-34 8.7 17.4 73.9 4635-39 18.9 21.7 59.4 3740-44 0.0 62.1 37.9 2945-49 0.0 45.8 54.2 24

Agegroups

Definitely yes, males

France Russia

20-24 5.7 14.025-29 28.9 24.630-34 30.6 21.035-39 24.2 13.240-44 17.3 4.445-49 12.4 0.0

Agegroups

Definitely yes, females

France Russia

20-24 11.9 21.125-29 33.3 36.830-34 42.8 8.735-39 37.7 18.940-44 15.8 0.045-49 2.4 0.0

Agegroups

Rather yes, rather not or do not know, females

France Russia

20-24 44.1 60.425-29 53.9 51.8

30-34 46.3 73.935-39 30.9 59.440-44 12.5 37.945-49 3.5 54.2

20

Fertility intentions for people having only one biological child by gender and age groups

Country Gender Age groupsFertility intentions

Unadjusted Numberdefinitely yes definitely not Rather yes, rather not

or do not know

France

Males

25-29 35.2 24.5 40.3 4530-34 35.4 19.9 44.7 8635-39 30.3 45.8 23.9 8840-44 10.8 74.1 15.1 6245-49 7.6 92.0 0.4 54

Females

25-29 45.9 11.9 42.2 8330-34 42.8 19.0 38.2 10335-39 19.5 54.9 25.6 11840-44 6.3 85.5 8.2 9945-49 2.5 97.5 0.0 92

Russia

Males

25-29 16.6 27.0 56.4 16330-34 11.1 18.9 70.0 18035-39 5.1 43.5 51.4 13840-44 5.3 66.2 28.5 15145-49 1.3 75.0 23.7 76

Females

25-29 13.2 24.8 62.0 30330-34 8.0 36.7 55.3 25135-39 2.2 63.2 34.6 18540-44 1.6 75.5 22.9 18845-49 0.9 91.7 7.4 108

Agegroups


France Russia

25-29 35.2 16.630-34 35.4 11.135-39 30.3 5.140-44 10.8 5.345-49 7.6 1.3

Agegroups


France Russia

25-29 45.9 13.230-34 42.8 8.035-39 19.5 2.240-44 6.3 1.645-49 2.5 0.9

21

Fertility intentions for people having only two biological children by gender and age groups

Country Gender Age groupsFertility intentions

Unadjusted Numberdefinitely yes definitely not Rather yes, rather not or do not know

France

Males

30-34 14.3 59.8 25.9 9535-39 4.1 78.9 16.9 17740-44 3.0 92.6 4.4 14645-49 1.9 94.9 3.2 124

Females

30-34 12.2 59.6 28.2 17035-39 5.9 81.0 13.1 22040-44 2.9 93.4 3.7 19945-49 0.0 100.0 0.0 197

Russia

Males

30-34 1.1 68.9 30.0 9035-39 0.7 65.0 34.3 13740-44 1.4 75.9 22.7 14545-49 0.0 86.2 13.8 123

Females

30-34 1.7 71.6 26.7 17635-39 1.0 77.8 21.2 19440-44 0.4 88.6 11.0 28045-49 0.0 92.7 7.3 192

Agegroups


France Russia

30-34 14.3 1.135-39 4.1 0.740-44 3.0 1.445-49 1.9 0.0

Agegroups


France Russia

30-34 12.2 1.735-39 5.9 1.040-44 2.9 0.445-49 0.0 0.0

Agegroups

Rather yes, rather not or do not know,

females

France Russia

30-34 28.2 26.735-39 13.1 21.2

40-44 3.7 11.045-49 0.0 7.3

22

Independent variables for logistic regression of positive fertility intentions

GenderAge groupsParental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance Occupation status of respondent and occupation status of father and mother (ISCO-88)Level of education, and intentions to resume studies Partnership/marriage Conception of Family LifeGender of the first child and age of respondent at the moment of the first birth

23

Gender and age groups

FactorsChildless One biological child

Relative risk Relative riskFrance Russia France Russia

Gender Men reference reference reference referenceWomen 1,39* 1.62*** 1.15 0.64**

Age groups

20-24 0,50*** 1.21 0.98 0.66*25-29 reference reference reference reference30-34 1,51* 1.31 0,46** 0.9535-39 1.34 0.52* 1,19*** 0.25***40-44 0,57* 0.27*** 0,05*** 0.12***45-49 0,21*** 0.15*** 0,02*** 0.02***

Significance: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) and *** 1 (per 1000)

24

Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance



Parental divorce yes 1.19 1.00 0.94 0.99no reference reference reference referenceSize of siblings 1 1.08 0.73 2.02 0.732 1.22 0.87 1.12 0.913 or more reference reference reference referenceNationality French / Russian reference reference reference referenceOthers 0.81 1.58** 0.9 1.37Religious Observance Regular 1,85* 1.40 1.05 1.03Irregular reference reference reference referenceNon praticing (agnostic) 0.79 0.83 1.20 0.66**

25

Occupation status of respondent



Legislators, seniorofficials and managers 1.03 2.04 1.65 0.90

Professionals 1.15 1.27 1.50 0.69Technicians and associate professionals reference reference reference reference

Clerks 1.17 0.51* 1.68 0.47**Service workers and shop and market sales workers 0.97 1.21 2,27* 0.75

Skill agricultural and fishery workers 1.19 2.51 0.57 0.61

Craft and related workers 0.74 1.00 1.27 0.58*Plant and machine operators and assemblers 1.19 1.59 1.43 0.57*

Elementary occupations 0.72 0.86 1.56 0.24***None or unknow 0.41 0.53** 0.63 0.75

26

Level of education and intentions to resume studies



Level of Education

Primary 0.79 0.99 0.77 1.19Secondary reference reference reference referenceTertiary 0.76 1.30 1.13 1.28

Studies in progress

yes 0.69 0.43*** 1.46 0.80no reference reference reference reference

Intention to resume studies

yes 1,06*** 0.73 1.30 1.46**no reference reference reference reference

27

Partnership/marriageFactors

Childless One biological childRelative risk Relative risk

France Russia France RussiaConjugal status alone reference reference reference referencein couple (partnership) 3,38*** 1.53 1.61 1.76**others 0.68 - 0.40 -Marital status single reference - reference -married 2,74*** - 1.43 -others 1.43 - 0.71 -Number of unions 0 reference reference reference reference1 1,70** 2.25** 2.25 1.682 2,12** 2.05* 1.79 2.38*3 or more 2.14 6.53** 1.50 2.31Intention to change its marital situation

yes 2.20 3.86*** 1.27 2.27***no reference reference reference referencedo not know 0.87 0.97

28

Conception of Family LifeFactors

Childless One biological childRelative risk Relative risk

France Russia France RussiaTo grow happy, child needs a father and a mother at home

agree or rather agree reference reference reference referenceneither agree, nor disagree 0.84 0.83 0.88 0.84disagree or rather disagree 0.92 0.77 1.07 1.57To make happy, a woman must have children

agree or rather agree reference reference reference referenceneither agree, nor disagree 0.80 0.71 0.57 1.22disagree or rather disagree 0.88 0.46* 0.43 0.80To make happy, a man must have children

agree or rather agree reference reference reference referenceneither agree, nor disagree 0.83 0.80 1.05 0.54**disagree or rather disagree 0,48* 0.87 0.99 1.11A woman can have a child alone if she does not wish a stable relation with a man

agree or rather agree reference reference reference referenceneither agree, nor disagree 0.99 0.78 0.71 1.19disagree or rather disagree 1.03 0.79 1.41 1.18

29

Gender of the first child and age of respondent at the moment of the first birth



Age at the first child less than 25 - - 0,23*** 0.7925 – 29 years - - 0,44** 0.7430 – 34 years - - reference reference35 or more - - 1.59 0.25

Gender of the first child Boy - - reference referenceGirl - - 1.06 1.00

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Semi-parametric (Cox) model for first and second birth

GenderAge groupsParental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance Occupation status of respondent’s father and mother (ISCO-88)Level of education, and intentions to resume studies Conjugal eventsGender of the first child and conjugal status at first birth

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Gender and age groups

Significance: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) and *** 1 (per 1000)

FactorsRelative risk Relative risk

1st birth 1st birthFrance Russia France Russia

Gender Men reference reference reference referenceWomen 1,46*** 1,17*** 1,50*** 1,13***

Age groups 20-24 0,23*** 0,67*** 2,52*** 0,29***25-29 reference reference reference reference30-34 2,16*** 1,36*** 0,87 2,25***35-39 2,46*** 1,38*** 0,87 2,86***40-44 2,45*** 1,40*** 0,88 3,19***45-49 2,35*** 1,40*** 0,90 3,45***

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Parental divorce, size of siblings, nationality of respondent, and religion observance



Parental divorce yes 1,15** 1,33*** 1,08 2,38***no reference reference reference reference

Size of siblings 1 0,79** 0,94 0,71*** 0,72***2 0,92* 0,98 0,81*** 0,76***3 or more reference reference reference reference

Religious Observance Regular 1,15** 0,95 1,05 0,95Irregular reference reference reference referenceNon praticing (agnostic) 1,14 1,00 1,03 0,95

Nationality French / Russian reference reference reference referenceOthers 0,9 1,01 0,76** 1,07

33

Occupation status of respondent’s father



Legislators, seniorofficials and managers 0,96 1,01 0,96 1,04Professionals 0,93 1,00 1,01 0,95Technicians and associate professionals reference reference reference referenceClerks 1,06 1,03 0,98 1,07Service workers and shop and market sales workers 1,11 1,07 1,10 1,05Skill agricultural and fishery workers 1,10 1,04 1,27 1,07Craft and related workers 1,16 1,04 1,24* 1,00Plant and machine operators and assemblers 1,18* 1,05 1,29** 1,04Elementary occupations 1,19* 0,99 1,23 1,03None or unknow 1,24** 0,95 1,19 0,84

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Occupation status of respondent’s mother



Legislators, seniorofficials and managers 1,14 0,91 1,27 1,08Professionals 0,93 0,97 0,87 0,96Technicians and associate professionals reference reference reference referenceClerks 0,99 1,02 1,08 1,11Service workers and shop and market sales workers 1,21 1,04 1,33* 1,13Skill agricultural and fishery workers 1,12 1,08 1,15 1,22Craft and related workers 1,17 1,03 1,22 1,05Plant and machine operators and assemblers 1,32* 0,99 1,33 1,05Elementary occupations 1,33** 1,04 1,18 1,10None or unknow 1,12 1,04 1,21 1,18

35

Studies and employment



Studies in progress

yes 1,05 0,74*** 0,80*

no reference reference reference

With already worked yes reference reference reference referenceno 2,21*** 1,01 2,56*** 1,20***

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Two possible conjugal events


1st birth 1st birth

France Russia France Russia

Two possible conjugal events

never in couple 0,25*** 0,28*** 0,53*** 0,26***

in cohabitation outside marriage reference reference reference reference

married 1,48*** 1,62*** 1,10 1,31***

cohabitation then marriage 0,93 1,64*** 1,07 1,34***

in couple then to separate 0,00 1,38*** 0,43*** 0,88***

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Gender of the first child and conjugal status at first birth

Factors

Relative risk Relative risk1st birth 1st birth

France Russia France RussiaGender of first child boy - - 0,96 1,13**girl - - reference reference

Conjugal status at first birth without union - - 1,61*** 2,21***cohabitation - - reference referencemarriage - - 1,24 2,00***

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Conclusions

In France fertility intentions are generally higher than in RussiaFactors which have influence on fertility intentions of childless people and fertility intentions of respondents with one biological child are differentThe most crucial factors for positive fertility intentions in both countries are conjugal status and number of unions, other factors are vary in France and RussiaThe most serious factors linked to probability of the first and second birth in both countries are age groups as well as conjugal events

1 Fertility Intentions in France and Russia Laurence Charton Marc Bloch University Strasbourg -...

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Transcript of 1 Fertility Intentions in France and Russia Laurence Charton Marc Bloch University Strasbourg -...