Yell - A cross border acquisition
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Transcript of Yell - A cross border acquisition
YELL A Cross Border Valua.on
The UK Business
Ad Price Not within the
company’s Control
Number Of Ads Sold Within the Company’s
Control
Value Drivers
Pro • Effec.ve Monopoly (85% of the market)
• Stable, no Fluctua.on with the Economic Cycle
• Cash Genera.ng • Four new Innova.ve lines of Business
Con • Mature business • Heavily Regulated • Slowing Growth
The US Business
Pro • Growth Poten.al • New Products and lines
• Leading Independent Directory Service Provider
Con • Compe..on • High investment in the first years
• Uncertain profit
EBITDA Margin Growth driven by Number of new Launches
Number of Directories Published
Value Drivers
Is Yell a good LBO?
Why does BT want to sell?
The Market The Company
• BT is under pressure to reduce its leverage
• Stock price declined 15%, while the FTSE100 only fell by 5%
• Tried to float Yell, excluded because of the low stock price
• 1.8B loss in 2001 and massive M&A expenses strain the Balance Sheet
• 3G spectrum auc.on in Europe in 2000
• Operators who failed to bid would lose out the next phase, therefore Telecoms bid high and accumulated debt
• When the DotCom bubble burst, investors lost confidence and Telecoms were penalized
UK and US Assumptions
• The management growth rate is too op.mis.c. We adjust the projec.ons, using historical growth rates. • In the UK, we believe the An.trust commission will impose a more restric.ve cap on tariffs increase. • We accept management assump.on for number of new launches and EBITDA margin for the US. • In the US, we assume the revenue from New Launches to stabilize acer 2005.
Assump>ons UK 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Growth Own assump.on 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Ad Price Own assump.ons (£) 622 599 575 552 530 509
Assump>ons US 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ebitda Margin Management 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 25%
Number of launches Management (number) 7 8 7 8 0 0
Growth Own assump.ons 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Cash Flows
Cash Flow UK (£’000)
EBIT 234,301 229,147 237,052 240,955 247,735 253,844
Tax without debt 70,290 68,744 71,116 72,287 74,320 76,153
Deprecia>on 6,130 8,850 8,400 7,630 8,000 8,000
Change in NWC 2,403 2,337 2,020 2,056 2,092 2,129
CapEx 10,220 9,730 9,230 8,380 8,000 8,000
CF 157,517 157,186 163,086 165,863 171,323 175,562
CF from other businesses (12,641) (8,238) 1,362 1,956 10,000 20,000
TOT CF 144,876 148,948 164,448 167,819 181,323 195,562
Cash Flow US ($’000)
Net Income 53,981 63,715 70,569 82,713 115,713 122,016
Deprecia>on 6,240 7,910 7,430 8,810 8,000 8,000
Change in NWC 40,553 17,180 10,280 19,447 16,728 17,535
CapEx 10,600 8,700 8,170 8,990 8,000 8,000
CF 9,068 45,745 59,549 63,086 98,984 104,481
CF in £ 6,335 32,012 41,672 44,209 67,937 71,710
Currency Issues
$/£ spot rate 1.439 bid—1.44 ask $/£ 1-‐year forward mid rate 1.4315 $/£ 2-‐year forward mid rate 1.4290 $/£ 3-‐year forward mid rate 1.4270 $/£ 4-‐year forward mid rate 1.4245 $/£ 5-‐year forward mid rate 1.4570
• We use the forward rates to convert the US cash Flows for every year into £ • For years later than 2006, we use the 5 year forward rate
Debt
• We assume the en.re debt will be supported by the UK side, since it is denominated in £ and the UK business has bejer cash flows to repay it
• Therefore, we calculate the Tax Shield as part of the UK business, with a 30% tax rate
Debt (£ Million)
Loan Amount Interest Rate Interest Payment Maturity
Senior B Interest 175 8.15% 14.26 8 Senor C Interest 175 8.40% 14.70 9 High Yield Interest 500 10.75% 53.75 10 Vendor 100 Not payable 12
Period Beginning amount Interest Payment Repayment Ending Amount
1 600 47.40 0 600 2 600 47.40 50 550 3 550 43.45 75 475 4 475 37.53 100 375 5 375 29.63 125 250 6 250 19.75 125 125 7 125 9.88 125 0
Discount Rate
Which β?
• We use McLeodUSA, WorldPages, Pagine Gialle, Telefonica and Eniro as comparables,
• We use the MSCI β, since the business is both US and UK
• We unleveraged the equity beta
• And we calculated the average
Which Rf?
• Since we are valuing a UK company, we use the UK risk Free rate
• We use the 10 year rate, since it is more consistent with our investment horizon
Which equity Premium?
• We use the UK market premium
• It is not drama.cally different from the US one
• And the business is based in the UK, so we assume the return on capital must be matched to opportuni.es available in the UK
β 1.13 Rf 4.94 Rp 5.60
Re Discount Rate
11.26
APV
We calculate the Tax Shield and discount it at the weighted
average cost of debt Rd = 8.97%
We calculate the present value of FCF, discoun.ng them at the
cost of capital Re = 11.26%
We calculate the Terminal value, using different growth rates
gUK = 3% gUS = 4% UK
Business 2B
US Business 0.7B
EV 2.7B
PV UK (£’000) Tax Shield 39,034 39,034 37,849 36,071 33,701 30,739 PV Tax 35,820 32,870 29,248 25,579 21,930 18,355 PV CF 130,219 120,335 119,416 109,535 106,375 103,122 TV 2,190,361 8.63 Pv Tv 1,155,002 Tot 2,007,806.74
PV US (£’000) PV CF 5,694 25,862 30,261 28,855 39,856 37,813 TV 1,027,857 5 Pv Tv 542,001 Tot 710,342
Risks
Sensitivity Analysis
• Management Growth • Management Ad Price
Management Scenario
• Growth Assump.on 6% • Capped Price Our Scenario
• Slower Growth 4% • Capped Price Worst Case
• Management Growth • Management New Launches
Management Scenario
• Growth Assump.on 8% • Management New Launches Our Scenario
• Own growth 8% • Management New Launches • Decreased New Launches revenue (5,000)
Worst Case
UK Business US Business
Sensitivity Analysis 2
£B UK US Tot EV/EBITDA
Management 2.99 0.78 3.77 11.13
Own 2.01 0.71 2.72 8.24
Worst 1.92 0.60 2.53 8.49
Any Questions?
APPENDIX
Complete Assumptions
Year
Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Comments 31-‐Mar-‐00 31-‐Mar-‐01 31-‐Mar-‐02 31-‐Mar-‐03 31-‐Mar-‐04 31-‐Mar-‐05 31-‐Mar-‐06 31-‐Mar-‐07
Management Projec>on
Adver.sement Volume (‘000) 813 853 927 991 1,058 1,126 1,194 1,254
Adver.sement Volume growth 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% Weighted Average Adver.sement Price (£) 641 645 644 648 649 649 649 649 Own Projec>on Adver.sement Volume (‘000) 813 853 904 958 1016 1077 1142 1210
Adver.sement Volume growth 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% the market is not growing anymore
Infla.on 2.40% 2.30% 2% 2% 2% 2% 6% Cap on tariff Increase Weighted Average Adver.sement Price (£) 622 599 575 552 530 509
Worst Case Adver.sement Volume (‘000) 887 940 997 1057 1120 1187 Weighted Average Adver.sement Price 622 599 575 552 530 509
Costs and Cash Flow projec>ons
Discounts and free ads (£’000) 42,402 47,276 78,180 86,585 84,324 86,615 85,366 86,049 Direct costs (£’000) 180,479 187,395 195,972 201,742 206,649 211,278 214,996 216,716 30% Overhead costs (£’000)a 102,530 88,870 74,930 77,137 79,013 80,783 82,204 82,862 Change in WC (£’000) 10,570 12,772 2,178 6,000 8,497 6,300 4,375 2,023 20% Capex (£’000) 7,380 9,760 10,220 9,730 9,230 8,380 8,000 8,000 Deprecia.on (£’000) 5,530 5,370 6,130 8,850 8,400 7,630 8,000 8,000 Other U.K. businesses:
Capital cash flows acer taxes (£’000) -‐4,566 -‐14,438 -‐12,641 -‐8,238 1,362 1,956 10,000 20,000 Doubaul
Year
Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 31-‐Mar-‐00 31-‐Mar-‐01 31-‐Mar-‐02 31-‐Mar-‐03 31-‐Mar-‐04 31-‐Mar-‐05 31-‐Mar-‐06 31-‐Mar-‐07 Management Projec>ons
New launches (number) 7 8 7 8 0 0 Total Revenues ($’000) 217,500 330,000 421,600 483,200 544,050 598,600 688,390 757,229 Revenue Growth 28% 15% 13% 10% 15% 10%
Own Projec>ons
New Launches 7 8 7 8 0 0 Revenue growth 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Margin and Costs
EBITDA ($’000) 42,000 17% 19.00% 21.00% 23.00% 25.00% 25% Capex ($’000) 3,698 7,000 10,600 8,700 8,170 8,990 8,000 8,000 Deprecia.on ($’000) 7,000 6,240 7,910 7,430 8,810 8,000 8,000
Income Statement Management projections, UK
Income statement Management Projec>on (£’000) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revenue 596,988 642,168 686,642 730,774 774,906 813,846 COGS 274,152 288,327 290,973 297,893 300,362 302,765 Discounts 78,180 86,585 84,324 86,615 85,366 86,049 Direct Costs 195,972 201,742 206,649 211,278 214,996 216,716 Op Income 322,836 353,841 395,669 432,881 474,544 511,081 Overhead Costs 74,930 77,137 79,013 80,783 82,204 82,862 EBITDA 247,906 276,704 316,656 352,098 392,340 428,219 Deprecia>on 6,130 8,850 8,400 7,630 8,000 8,000 EBIT 241,776 267,854 308,256 344,468 384,340 420,219 Interest 130,113 130,113 126,163 120,238 112,338 102,463 Pre Tax Income 111,664 137,742 182,094 224,231 272,003 317,757 Tax 33,499 41,322 54,628 67,269 81,601 95,327 Net Income 78,164 96,419 127,465 156,961 190,402 222,430
Income Statement Own Projections, UK
Income statement UK (£’000) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revenue 562,201 573,884 583,984 594,262 604,721 615,364 COGS 246,840 258,750 259,519 264,894 266,782 270,658 Discounts 78,180 86,585 84,324 86,615 85,366 86,049 Direct Costs 168,660 172,165 175,195 178,279 181,416 184,609 Op Income 315,361 315,134 324,465 329,368 337,939 344,706 Overhead Costs 74,930 77,137 79,013 80,783 82,204 82,862 EBITDA 240,431 237,997 245,452 248,585 255,735 261,844 Deprecia>on 6,130 8,850 8,400 7,630 8,000 8,000 EBIT 234,301 229,147 237,052 240,955 247,735 253,844 Interest 130,113 130,113 126,163 120,238 112,338 102,463 Pre Tax Income 104,188 99,034 110,889 120,718 135,397 151,381 Tax 31,256 29,710 33,267 36,215 40,619 45,414 Net Income 72,932 69,324 77,622 84,503 94,778 105,967
Income statement Worst Case, UK
Income statement Worst Case (£’000) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revenue 551,593 563,056 572,965 583,050 593,311 603,754 COGS 246,840 258,750 259,519 264,894 266,782 270,658 Discounts 78,180 86,585 84,324 86,615 85,366 86,049 Direct Costs 165,478 168,917 171,890 174,915 177,993 181,126 Op Income 304,753 304,306 313,446 318,156 326,529 333,095 Overhead Costs 74,930 77,137 79,013 80,783 82,204 82,862 EBITDA 229,823 227,169 234,433 237,373 244,325 250,233 Deprecia>on 6,130 8,850 8,400 7,630 8,000 8,000 EBIT 223,693 218,319 226,033 229,743 236,325 242,233 Interest 130,113 130,113 126,163 120,238 112,338 102,463 Pre Tax Income 93,581 88,206 99,871 109,505 123,987 139,771 Tax 28,074 26,462 29,961 32,852 37,196 41,931 Net Income 65,506 61,744 69,909 76,654 86,791 97,840
Income Statement, Management Projections, US
Income statement Management Projec>ons ($’000) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revenue Organic Growth 364,900 418,400 487,350 533,800 623,590 692,429 Revenue 56,700 64,800 56,700 64,800 64,800 64,800 TOT REVENUES 421,600 483,200 544,050 598,600 688,390 757,229 COGS 330,867 370,904 413,007 443,026 467,693 519,322 Discounts on new Launches 28,000 32,000 28,000 32,000 -‐ -‐ Costs for old lines 302,867 338,904 385,007 411,026 467,693 519,322 EBITDA 90,733 112,296 131,044 155,574 220,698 237,907 Deprecia>on 6,240 7,910 7,430 8,810 8,000 8,000 EBIT 84,493 104,386 123,614 146,764 212,698 229,907 Tax 35% 29,573 36,535 43,265 51,367 74,444 80,468 Net Income 54,920 67,851 80,349 95,397 138,253 149,440
Income Statement Own Projections, US
Income statement US ($’000) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revenue Organic Growth 356,400 384,912 415,705 448,961 484,878 523,669 Revenue 56,700 64,800 56,700 64,800 64,800 64,800 Tot Revenue 413,100 449,712 472,405 513,761 549,678 588,469 COGS 323,812 343,779 356,407 377,700 363,659 392,751 Discounts on new Launches 28,000 32,000 28,000 32,000 -‐ -‐ Costs for old lines 295,812 311,779 328,407 345,700 363,659 392,751 EBITDA 89,288 105,933 115,998 136,061 186,020 195,717 Deprecia>on 6,240 7,910 7,430 8,810 8,000 8,000 EBIT 83,048 98,023 108,568 127,251 178,020 187,717 Tax 35% 29,067 34,308 37,999 44,538 62,307 65,701 Net Income 53,981 63,715 70,569 82,713 115,713 122,016
Income Statement, Worst Case, US
Income statement Worst case ($’000) Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revenue Organic Growth 356,400 384,912 415,705 448,961 484,878 523,669 Revenue 35,000 40,000 35,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 Tot Revenue 391,400 424,912 450,705 488,961 524,878 563,669 COGS 323,812 343,779 356,407 377,700 363,659 392,751 Discounts on new Launches 28,000 32,000 28,000 32,000 -‐ -‐ Costs for old lines 295,812 311,779 328,407 345,700 363,659 392,751 EBITDA 67,588 81,133 94,298 111,261 161,220 170,917 Deprecia>on 6,240 7,910 7,430 8,810 8,000 8,000 EBIT 61,348 73,223 86,868 102,451 153,220 162,917 Tax 35% 21,472 25,628 30,404 35,858 53,627 57,021 Net Income 39,876 47,595 56,464 66,593 99,593 105,896
Cash Flows UK
Cash Flow Management Projec>ons (£’000) EBIT 241776 267854 308256 344468 384340 420219 Tax without debt 72,533 80,356 92,477 103,340 115,302 126,066 Deprecia>on 6,130 8,850 8,400 7,630 8,000 8,000 Change in NWC 2,178 6,000 8,497 6,300 4,375 2,023 CapEx 10,220 9,730 9,230 8,380 8,000 8,000 CF 162,975 180,618 206,452 234,078 264,663 292,130 CF from other businesses -‐12,641 -‐8,238 1,362 1,956 10,000 20,000 TOT CF 150,334 172,380 207,814 236,034 274,663 312,130
Cash Flow Worst Case (£’000) EBIT 223,693 218,319 226,033 229,743 236,325 242,233 Tax without debt 67,108 65,496 67,810 68,923 70,897 72,670 Deprecia>on 6,130 8,850 8,400 7,630 8,000 8,000 Change in NWC 2,403 2,337 2,020 2,056 2,092 2,129 CapEx 10,220 9,730 9,230 8,380 8,000 8,000 CF 150,092 149,606 155,373 158,014 163,336 167,435 CF from other businesses (12,641) (8,238) 1,362 1,956 10,000 20,000 TOT CF 137,451 141,368 156,735 159,970 173,336 187,435
Cash Flows, US
Cash Flow Management Projec>ons ($’000) Net Income 54,920 67,851 80,349 95,397 138,253 149,440 Deprecia>on 6,240 7,910 7,430 8,810 8,000 8,000 Change in NWC 44,358 28,403 27,482 25,476 41,175 31,119 CapEx 10,600 8,700 8,170 8,990 8,000 8,000 CF 6,202 38,657 52,127 69,741 97,078 118,321 CF in £ 4,333 27,052 36,529 48,958 66,629 81,208
Cash Flow Worst Case ($’000) Net Income 39,876 47,595 56,464 66,593 99,593 105,896 Deprecia>on 6,240 7,910 7,430 8,810 8,000 8,000 Change in NWC 40,553 15,652 11,809 17,919 16,728 17,535 CapEx 10,600 8,700 8,170 8,990 8,000 8,000 CF -‐5,037 31,154 43,916 48,495 82,864 88,361 CF in £ (3,518) 21,801 30,775 34,043 56,873 60,646
Present Values, UK
PV Management Projec>ons (£’000) Tax Shield 39,034 39,034 37,849 36,071 33,701 30,739 PV Tax 35,820 32,870 29,248 25,579 21,930 18,355 PV CF 135,125 139,265 150,907 154,058 161,135 164,590 TV 3,644,698 8.67 Pv Tv 1,921,891 Tot 2,990,772.49
PV Worst Case (£’000) Tax Shield 39,034 39,034 37,849 36,071 33,701 30,739 PV Tax 35,820 32,870 29,248 25,579 21,930 18,355 PV CF 123,545 114,211 113,815 104,412 101,690 98,836 TV 2,088,961 8.62 Pv Tv 1,101,533 Tot 1,921,844.54
Present Values, US
PV Management Projec>ons ($’000) PV CF 3,894 21,855 26,526 31,955 39,089 42,822 TV 1,164,011 5 Pv Tv 613,796 Tot 779,938
PV Worst Case ($’000) PV CF (4,527) 25,169 31,890 31,652 48,613 46,594 TV 785,034 5 Pv Tv 424,071 Tot 603,462