WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects (Leader: Gunnar Myhre, co-leader Ivar...

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Transcript of WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects (Leader: Gunnar Myhre, co-leader Ivar...

  • WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effects (Leader: Gunnar Myhre, co-leader Ivar Isaksen, CICERO)Partners: CICERO, UCAMTask 3.1: Current influence of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO)Task 3.2: Future impact of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO)Task 3.3: Investigation of the strength of the bio geophysical cycle of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO)

    Milestone 3.1: Impact on current atmospheric distribution of CH4 emissions from the seabed (M24)Milestone 3.2: Future radiative forcing of direct and indirect effect CH4 emissions from the seabed (M30)Milestone 3.3: Future temperature changes from effect CH4 emissions from the seabed (M33)Milestone 3.4: Quantification of potential of the bio-geochemical cycle of CH4 emissions (M33)

  • WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effectsTask 3.1: Current influence of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO)OsloCTM3 will be used simulate the influence on the atmospheric composition from the current emissions of CH4 from the seabed as derived in WP1 (all tasks) and WP2, task 2.2.

    Modelling tools ready to be used and used for the 1970-2012 period within the GAME projectThe challenge is the emissions to be included in the simulations

  • DaysppbvSimulations shown on Tuesday by Stig Dalsren

  • Figure SPM.8-Temperature-Sea ice-Wind

  • WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effectsTask 3.2: Future impact of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO)Methane emissions from the seabed as derived in WP2 task 2.3 will be used to calculate changes in the CH4 distribution and indirect effect of CH4 and its radiative forcing and temperature changes. Simulations will be performed for different time periods in particular 2050 and 2100 and CH4 emission scenarios. Sensitivity simulations on the time duration of CH4 emissions will be performed. Modelling tools ready to be used OsloCTM2 as well as NCAR climate modelRepresentativness for NCAR climate model in relation to other CMIP5 modelsChanges in winds from current to 2050 and 2100 in CMIP5

  • WP 3. Present and future projections of climate effectsTask 3.3: Investigation of the strength of the bio geophysical cycle of methane emissions from the seabed (CICERO)The temperature changes in Task 3.2 will be used to derive whether the change is sufficient to change the CH4 emissions from the seabed as investigated in WP2. The potential strength of the cycle will be investigated.

    This work depends very much on outcome from WP2Same tools as Task 3.2