Transformation of UK Business Data Collection UNECE Workshop on Statistical Data Collection 10-12 October 2017 Debra Prestwood UK Office for National Statistics Divisional Director of Business Surveys Transformation V0.1

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Outline

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• Vision for data collection • Enterprise Architecture • Roadmap for business surveys data collection • Focus on short term surveys/statistics • Statistical Business Register • Direct data feeds • Progress • Sharing experience

Target Operating Model (TOM) • Data integration, not simply data collection

• Link core sources (survey and non-survey)

to a central statistical spine at a micro data level in order to: • Maximise the utility of our data

• Work efficiently - link once, rather than

multiple times in different locations for different purposes / outputs

Vision

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Enterprise Architecture Enterprise Architecture Overview

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Survey and non-survey integration On going survey redesign and rationalisation work is currently looking at how we can minimise the number of businesses we survey through the integration of various data sources.

Currently collected through 80 business surveys ranging from monthly, quarterly and annual

Survey Data

Use the new Digital Economy Act (data sharing legislation) which allows ONS to store and use admin data, e.g. PAYE, VAT etc., plus commercial data

Non-survey Data

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Business Survey Redesign Conceptual Approach

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Vision

Business Surveys redesigned to fill gaps or for calibration

Harmonise Rationalise/Online modular

design Sample redesign

Non-Survey Data are preferred source

Value Added Tax PAYE RTI Self Assessment…

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Statistical Business Register Provides statistical units and so spine to link all/most business data

Provides sampling frame for business survey(s) to supplement non-survey data sources

TRANSLATION

TRANSFORM revisit output requirements

TRANSLATE output(s) ‘as is’

RATIONALISATION INTEGRATION • No output changes or sample

redesign

• Questionnaire content and structure largely unchanged

• Improve questionnaire design by:

• Benefitting from features of online collection (routing, validations, usability)

• Meets accessibility needs

• Revisit output requirements • Survey(s) redesigned and

rationalised • Harmonisation of outputs, concepts • Improved data collection design

(content and usability – online first) • Amended processing systems and

methods

• Revisit output requirements • Register spine to integrate

sources • Draw first on non-survey

sources to meet output requirements

• Surveys redesigned to fill gaps • Online first data collection redesign

Benefits / Value • Reduced costs - GAE • Reduced burden (but limited to

usability) • Reputation – ‘digital by default’

Benefits / Value • Reduced costs - GAE & staff • Reduced burden - sample

reduction, improved questions, usability

• Reputation – progressing to transformation vision, ‘digital by default’

Benefits / Value • Reduced costs - replacing direct

collection, GAE & staff • Reduced burden - data re-use,

sample and survey reduction, improved questions, usability

• Reputation – delivering transformation

• Promotes innovation, new outputs • More responsive – flexibility to

respond to new demands

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Potential impact of new sources on existing ONS business statistical outputs

New Source Potential impact on ONS outputs VAT Redevelopment of smaller MBS

Quality assurance of many business surveys VAT expenditure=intermediate consumption proxy

HMRC Trade & VAT Improve samples for ABS, environmental accounts, prices, Prodcon

Corporation Tax Redevelopment & quality assurance of ABS, R & D, Capital (GFCF)

Self-Assessment Enriched Statistical Business Register Improved current measure of self-employment

PAYE RTI Redevelopment of workforce jobs Redevelop MWSS and ASHE

Visa, other credit cards Add trade mode of supply Improve regional accounts

Scanner data Redevelopment of RSI & business prices Solvency II Redevelop insurance surveys

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Emerging road map for transforming all business survey / data groups

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Potential timeline / road map

Business Surveys redesigned to fill gaps or for calibration

Non-Survey Data are preferred source

Statistical Business Register Provides statistical units and so spine to link all/most business data!

Provides sampling frame for business survey(s) to supplement non-survey data sources!

Why start with short-term stats?

Harmonise Online modular design Sample redesign

VAT PAYE RTI Self Assessment…

• High potential for use of non-survey data (more so than structurals) • We already have VAT data and are researching PAYE RTI potential • VAT and PAYE RTI are the initial focus for non-survey data integration • Makes use of investment in the ongoing VAT Minimum Viable Product

• High cost surveys due to size, coverage, frequency

• Short frequency to reiterate and learn

• High potential to harmonise turnover (and emp) • Relatively simple concepts and questions

compared to structural surveys

• RSI, QBS, MWSS are already online , so functionality in place for ‘simple’ surveys

• All use same downstream legacy systems

• Turnover (VAT) and employment (PAYE) are core register (auxillary) variables! …so great for laying the foundations for transformation! 11

Workstreams

Business Surveys redesigned to fill gaps or for calibration

Harmonise

Rationalise/Online modular

design

Sample redesign Statistical Business Register

Provides statistical units and so spine to link all/most business data Provides sampling frame for business survey(s) to supplement non-survey data sources

Non-Survey Data are preferred source

VAT PAYE RTI Self Assessment…

Output Specification Define & prioritise output user needs, to provide a reference for all other workstreams

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Workstreams

Output Specification Define & prioritise output user needs, to provide a reference for all other workstreams

What is the ‘real’ activity in the UK?

Global National Accounts

Economic Ownership - UN System of National Accounts - Who owns the raw materials &

finished goods? - Where is the money going?

For example… Who are our main users for short-term output (turnover) data? What conceptual basis should we be using to collect data and/or produce stats?

BoE– Monetary Policy Committee vs.

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Use of ‘Simple v Complex’ Units

• Motivated by desire for admin (or other non-survey) data to be the preferred source [for any given output]

• Suitability depends on quality (inc. availability) of admin data for the statistical units

• Likely to want to partition business population into units for which: • non-survey data will be used • survey principles will be applied

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Use of Simple v Complex Units

Complexity

Size of unit

Small

Big

Simple Complex

defined primarily by:

unit linkage (1-to-1, 1-to-many, etc.)

defined by: employment, turnover, …

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Business Index (BI): Links legal units to VAT references and PAYE schemes Statistical Business Register (SBR): • Frame function: Provide the sampling frame facilitating survey and non-survey sources.

Enable more sophisticated and flexible sample designs and auxiliary variables for estimation

• Statistical spine : Create statistical units and so the foundations and building block on which to integrate data at microdata level and produce statistics

• Analytical function: Improve analysis of business population through holding more variables and most up to date data

• Expanded population : Include Self Assessment Tax ie very small sole traders and partnerships

New Statistical Business Register

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‘Direct data feeds’ from businesses

Research into: • Compatability with company

accounting/processing systems • Accessibility • Software barriers • Flow alongside survey data into common

platform(s) • Other NSIs’ experience

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Progress

• 5 business surveys ‘translated’ online

• 12 surveys using new Secure File Transfer portal

• Equates to 68,000 eQuestionnaires to businesses

• Next stage is translation of rest Monthly Business Survey

• Short term statistics transformation in progress

• Business Index in live beta trial phase

• SBR in design Alpha phase

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We’d like to understand your experience in… • Generic platform build across multiple statistical domains

(Business, social, Census) • Length of research time into use of admin data source to replace

survey data • Obtaining ‘direct data feeds’ from businesses • Linking economic and social microdata through registers • Maintaining security of data when linked at microdata level • Capacity to manage transformational methods research –

outsourcing to third parties used? • Moratorium on change to existing systems and prcocesses

whilst transforming data collection? • Ensuring sound methods for integrating admin sources v

transforming quickly • Handling of resulting discontinuities in key economic time series

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Thank you for listening!

Contacts:

debra.prestwood@ons.gov.uk nick.barford@ons.gov.uk

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