The Voice of the Networks Whole...2 The Voice of the Networks Thank you for joining the Open...

Energy

Networks

Association

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Energy

Networks

Association Open Networks Project

WS1 (2018)

Whole System Future Energy Scenarios

29 October 2018

The Voice of the Networks

2 The Voice of the Networks

Thank you for joining the Open Networks: Whole System FES (WS1 P5) webinar. This webinar will

commence at 1:33PM.

• If you are unable to play the audio through your device, you can also dial in by calling

+44-20-3478-5289

• Please ensure that your microphone is switched to ‘mute’ to avoid background noise and

your camera in not in use.

• You may ask questions via the chat function throughout the webinar. We will address as

many of these as possible at the end of the presentation.

• Please note that this webinar will be recorded and that the audio, chat messages

(anonymised) and slides will be made available on our website.

Should you want further information about the Open Networks project, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with us at

[email protected].

Webinar: Whole System FES

mailto:[email protected]


Agenda

Webinar Outline

Whole System FES Product & Team introduction

Product programme outline

Why Whole System FES?

DNO forecasting questionnaire

National Grid 2018 FES Methodology Review

Common ‘building blocks’

Whole System FES framework options

Preferred option and next steps

Panel session – Q & A


• The Whole System FES Product is an ENA Open Networks Product (Product 5) under

Workstream 1 (T-D Processes). The product is developing a Whole System FES framework which

is intended to facilitate the production of whole system future energy scenarios.

• During 2018, the Product team is focusing on electricity transmission and distribution, with future

work expected to broaden the scope to include other sectors.

• To-date, we have engaged with the Open Networks Project Workstream 1 and the ENA Advisory

Group.

• Today we are looking for stakeholder input in order to inform our approach and recommendations.

• The product team is made up of representatives from GB network companies and the ESO

Whole System FES Product &

Team Introduction

Company

Bless Kuri SSEN Product Lead

Mary Black NPg Webinar Panellist

Alex Haffner NGESO Webinar Panellist

Ian Povey ENWL Webinar Panellist

Keith Evans ENWL

Christopher Kungu SPEN

Colin Nicholl UKPN

Ben Godfrey WPD

Wayne Mullins NGET


Whole System FES – Outline

Product 5: Development of a Whole System Future Energy Scenario Framework

P5.1 Review current

forecasting approachesJan – Jun 2018

• Forecasting questionnaire to all DNOs• Analysis of questionnaire responses and

identification of similarities and differences in approaches

P5.2 Develop common

forecasting approachApr – Sep 2018

• High level consideration of SO FES methodology• Key forecasting parameters• Whole System FES framework options

‒ Forecasting approach‒ Coordination across DNOs

P5.3 Establish process for

T&D FES coordination Sep – Dec 2018

• Review current FES and DNO forecasting processes and timelines

• Develop process options for coordinated T and D FES development

• Recommendation and buy-in from DNOs, TOs & SO


• The development of the Whole System FES framework is intended to facilitate the production of whole

system future energy scenarios, the building blocks of which are consistent and aligned across network

operators in order to support whole system industry processes.

• At this stage we have focused on the Electricity sector in developing the principles for Whole System FES

framework, with future work looking to broaden the scope to include other sectors.

• The Whole System FES are intended to specifically support the strategic whole system planning and do not

restrict the network companies from creating their own regional scenarios to support their network

development planning activities. The level of potential change at D-level (e.g. generation, storage, EV’s,

local energy schemes) means that we need greater focus on coherent scenarios between T & D and

across D networks.

• The Whole System FES will:

– Provide a consistent view of possible energy futures across network ownership boundaries

– Facilitate whole system thinking within the industry

– Allow whole system requirements to be identified

– Facilitate whole system outcomes in the provision and implementation of solutions to address system

requirements

– Facilitate 3rd party participation in system development and operation

– Provide a platform for coordinated stakeholder engagement

Why Whole System FES?


• Forecasting activities beyond industry code requirements (Week 24),

active and reactive power

• Energy resources considered in the forecasts

• Top/down vs bottom/up approach and approach to diversity or

aggregation

• What the forecast data is used for and time horizons covered by

system development plans and publications

• Consideration and drivers for use of multiple scenarios

• Source of forecasting information and methods used to obtain the

information

• Forecast parameters and forecasting horizon

• Key challenges in producing forecasts

Forecasting questionnaire summary


• Some DNOs are undertaking enhanced forecasting activities to address specific

requirements in their areas.

• There are different forecasting approaches in use across the DNO community

– Ranging from single to multiple scenario approaches

– Forecasting from 5 years ahead to 25 years

– Collaboration on forecasting activities generally limited to areas where there are

common network issues

– For DNOs attempting to align their forecasts with National Grid’s FES there is the

challenge of misaligned scenario development timelines

• Forecasts used to inform load related reinforcement plans and investment decisions and

RIIO 2

– Scenario timescales longer than 5 years being considered by all.

– Development of DSO transition decision support (extent and feasibility of flexibility

services and operational technology requirements)

• Key challenge faced by all is the high level of uncertainty in the volume, rate of

penetration and operational regimes/behaviour of DER

Current forecasting approaches


• Whole System FES Workshop held on 21 May, attended by

– Representatives from all DNOs, TOs and the SO

– Two consultancies:

• Element Energy

• Regen

• To review Future Energy Scenario development good practice and carry

out Gap Analysis

– Forecasting methodologies

– Key forecasting parameters

– Process for coordination across DNOs

– Requirements for coordination with the national FES process

Whole System FES workshop, May 2018


• The SO’s FES methodology is good starting point

• Greater collaboration needed between the SO and network companies

• Need for systematic DNO/SO engagement rather than ad-hoc basis

• The Whole System FES framework should not be restrictive. Network

companies should retain the flexibility to model other local scenarios to

better represent specific possible future scenarios that are better

modelled in detail at local level

• The development of Whole System FES should be prioritised on a

needs basis

– Priority to be given to local areas where there are DER activities driving significant

requirements for solutions in order to maximise return on effort

• High granularity of DER data at distribution level means that Whole

System FES development is not an insignificant task – requires to be

appropriately resourced

Workshop takeaways


FES 2018 Methodology Review

High level axes capture the key Whole System

parameters embodied in the scenarios

Good for stakeholder engagement

May be rigid when carrying out localised

assessments of system needs,

uncertainty, etc.

The Whole System FES Team agreed the

concept of scenario building blocks, based on

a set of common assumptions and levers

Collaboration between Network

companies and SO required in the

development of the building blocks

A mapping based on driver levels is applied to

the set of building blocks to:

Develop the Whole System FES or

Any other scenarios required by any of the

parties

This approach allows parties to frame different

axes for their own local scenarios.


Example Building blocks

Technological Blocks Economic Blocks …

Block 1

Distributed Solar

Installed Capacity

Block 2

Marine Generation

Installed Capacity

…

Block N

UK GDP Growth

Rate

Block N+1

End Consumer

Electricity Price

… …

Leve

rs

High No incentives requiredNo incentives

required

Mediumreliant on stakeholder

feedback

reliant on market

intelligence and

stakeholder feedback

LowConsented schemes

only

Consented schemes

only

Whole System FES Building Blocks

– Building blocks based on a common set of assumptions and levers

– Industry collaboration required in building a common set of blocks


• The inputs are the driver levels (High, Medium, Low) associated with the levers

Scenario building – Inputs & Outputs

Assumption

name (Block) Description Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

Solar generation -

large

Level of installed

capacity of solar -

large

Medium

(Push to decarbonise using small

scale generation.)

High

(Push to decarbonise but prefer

larger solar installations.)

Low

(Slower pace of decarbonisation.)

Low

(Slower pace of decarbonisation.)

Solar generation -

small

Level of installed

capacity of solar -

small scale

High

Push to decarbonise using small

scale generation.

Medium

High levels of renewable

generation exist in a

decarbonised scenario but this

centralised scenario favours large

scale generation.

Low

Slower pace of decarbonisation

and focus on larger ground mount

solar.

Medium

Slow pace of decarbonisation but

focus on small solar over ground

mount in this decentralised

scenario.

• The building blocks are formed from inputs

• The outputs from the model are quantities


Scenario building

Example Scenario Driver Levels

Technological Blocks Economic Blocks …

Block 1

Distributed Solar

Installed Capacity

Block 2

Marine Generation

Installed Capacity

…

Block N

UK GDP Growth

Rate

Block N+1

End Consumer

Electricity Price

… …

Sce

nar

ios

National –

Two Degrees H M L H M L H M L H M LNational –

Slow Progression H M L H M L H M L H M LNational –

Community Renewables H M L H M L H M L H M LNational –

Consumer Evolution H M L H M L H M L H M L

Local/Regional – A H M L H M L H M L H M L

Local/Regional – B H M L H M L H M L H M L

Local/Regional – C H M L H M L H M L H M L

Local/Regional – D H M L H M L H M L H M L

Regional/Local – Other H M L H M L H M L H M L

N / A

N / A

N / A

N / A


• The driver level inputs into the building blocks are processed to produce unconstrained

outputs, e.g.

– Distributed solar installed capacity, Installed marine generation, number of EVs, etc.

– PV is a good example of where solar potential regionally constrains the output so a

high scenario will yield higher PV in, say in Cornwall than in Yorkshire, but it is still a

high scenario for both.

– Sense check required on whether the outputs from the H/M/L drivers look reasonable

both nationally and regionally.

• It is agreement on the inputs which forms the basis for a common FES for planning. The

national and the local/regional scenarios together are necessary for managing uncertainty

– the local/regional scenarios provide a fuller picture of the range of local future scenarios.

• The collection of the national FES and the local/regional scenarios form the Whole

System FES

• The common building block approach allows open interpretation of the differences

between the national and local/regional scenarios by explaining where the H/M/L comes

from for a particular building block, where it is an outlier.

The basis of Whole System FES


Whole System FES Framework options

Option Description Comments

1 Common GB FES

All DNOs and TOs work with SO to produce scenarios and associated assumptions and levers.

These are also the Distribution FES aligned across Transmission and Distribution Based on common building blocks and rules across all DNOs, TOs and SO

Impractical to implement and it also restricts regional variation.Would need input from Gas

2 Hybrid FES

GB FES plus additional Distribution FES DNOs, TOs and SO collaborate on the GB FES at GSPs Network companies’ own best view scenarios expressed in the common framework/

building blocks of the GB FES to allow stakeholders to understand and compare scenarios

3 Separate FES –DNO Led

DNO scenarios produced on independently based on bottom up assessment of local DER Assumptions & Results provided to NGET to incorporate into GB FES as appropriate No common building

Lacks TSO/DSO collaboration when we need to assure ourselves and our stakeholders that we are jointly planning for the big changes we expect to our networks in the future4 Separate

FES – SO Led

SO produce scenarios to GSP level based on Top Down assessment of GB network. Assumptions & Results provided to DNOs to incorporate into Distribution FES as

appropriate No common building blocks


Preferred Whole System FES framework

Hybrid option 2 is the preferred option

• Network companies able to use a range of detailed models appropriate to the distribution

network

• Comparability of network companies’ own scenarios, relativity analysis, and easily

communicable

• SO/DNO interface at GSP – working together to improve the GB FES breakdown at GSP level

• Spatial analysis information on domestic demand (heat pumps, EVs, etc…)

• Feasibility assessments on GB scenario expectations e.g. industrial and commercial demand side

response

• Further development of this option in progress

• Detail of the FES building blocks

• Common language

• Regional differences

• Interaction with related industry codes and processes

• Stakeholder engagement

• Data exchange, data formats and standard reports

• Transitional arrangements and Whole System FES framework review


• Establish process for T&D FES coordination (sub-product 5.3) –

November

• Recommendation and buy-in from DNOs, TOs & SO – November

• Whole System FES framework report – end of December.

Next steps


• The Whole System FES framework should recognise the different drivers across different

network licence areas. Whole System FES should therefore be prioritised on a needs basis

Do you agree with this approach? What alternative approaches could be

considered?

• Whole System FES focus on the national picture while maintaining a consistent view across

regional areas. The use of common building blocks allows the DNOs and the SO to

collaborate effectively at the T/D interface. Network owners develop their own FES, based on

the common building blocks, to give a fuller regional picture within their licenced areas.

Do you agree with this approach to the development of Whole System FES?

What other approaches do you think should be considered?

• The preferred Whole System FES framework option is option 2 – Hybrid FES

Do you agree with the preferred option for the Whole System FES framework?

What other options do you think should be considered?

Feedback


Panel Session

• Observations

• Views

• Suggestions

• Questions

Further feedback post-webinar: [email protected]

Questions and Answers

mailto:[email protected]

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