The Loss of Urban Areas from Sea Level Rise in the …...Sophie Worrell 11/29/2016 1 The Loss of...
18
Sophie Worrell 11/29/2016 1 The Loss of Urban Areas from Sea Level Rise in the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX (1) Purpose: Defined by flat coastal plains, the greater Houston-Galveston area is the most populated region in Texas. Therefore, as sea level continues to rise the greater Houston-Galveston area will be one of the first regions significantly affected. Global climate change is causing sea level to rise 7 mm/year in this area. This projects aims to project the loss of Houston-Galveston urban areas (in km 2 ) due to sea level rise; specifically, focused on sea level rises of 1 meter, 3 meters, 7 meters, 11 meters, 15 meters, and 20 meters. (2) Data Collection: • Texas Counties shape-file: From the United States 2016 Census data https://www.census.gov/cgibin/geo/shapefiles/index.php?year=2016&layergroup=Counties+%2 8and+equivalent%29 • Urban Density shape-file: From the United States 2016 Census data https://www.census.gov/cgibin/geo/shapefiles/index.php?year=2016&layergroup=Urban+Areas • Digital Elevation Models: From the USGS National Map http://nationalmap.gov/3DEP/ • Cities Shape-file: From the Texas Parks and Wildlife https://tpwd.texas.gov/gis/data/baselayers/citypts-zip/view • Houston-Galveston Base Map: From the Texas Natural Resources Information System https://tnris.org/data-catalog/entry/bathymetry-tx-coast-v0-1/ • Sea Level Rise Rate for the Galveston Area: From the Tides and Currents NOAA https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html (3) Data Processing: I downloaded all of the shape-files and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to my USB drive’s Project folder. Then I extracted the files to make sure all the information was accessible. (4) ArcGIS Processing: a) I first changed the Layers coordinate system to GCS NAD 1983, so the data was projected with the least amount of distortion. b) I added in all of my shape-files and DEMs to the blank ArcMap document. Then I used the project tool in Arctoolbox to project all of the shape-files to the same coordinate system as the Layers (GCS NAD 1983). To change the DEMs, I located each DEM in ArcCatalog and changed the
Transcript of The Loss of Urban Areas from Sea Level Rise in the …...Sophie Worrell 11/29/2016 1 The Loss of...
SophieWorrell11/29/2016
1
TheLossofUrbanAreasfromSeaLevelRiseintheGreaterHouston-GalvestonArea,TX
(1) Purpose:Definedbyflatcoastalplains,thegreaterHouston-Galvestonareaisthemostpopulatedregion
inTexas.Therefore,assealevelcontinuestorisethegreaterHouston-Galvestonareawillbeoneofthefirstregionssignificantlyaffected.Globalclimatechangeiscausingsealeveltorise7mm/yearinthisarea.ThisprojectsaimstoprojectthelossofHouston-Galvestonurbanareas(inkm2)duetosealevelrise;specifically,focusedonsealevelrisesof1meter,3meters,7meters,11meters,15meters,and20meters.
(2) DataCollection:
• TexasCountiesshape-file:FromtheUnitedStates2016Censusdatahttps://www.census.gov/cgibin/geo/shapefiles/index.php?year=2016&layergroup=Counties+%28and+equivalent%29
• UrbanDensityshape-file:FromtheUnitedStates2016Censusdata
https://www.census.gov/cgibin/geo/shapefiles/index.php?year=2016&layergroup=Urban+Areas
• DigitalElevationModels:FromtheUSGSNationalMaphttp://nationalmap.gov/3DEP/
• CitiesShape-file:FromtheTexasParksandWildlifehttps://tpwd.texas.gov/gis/data/baselayers/citypts-zip/view
• Houston-GalvestonBaseMap:FromtheTexasNaturalResourcesInformationSystemhttps://tnris.org/data-catalog/entry/bathymetry-tx-coast-v0-1/
• SeaLevelRiseRatefortheGalvestonArea:FromtheTidesandCurrentsNOAAhttps://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html
(3) DataProcessing:
Idownloadedalloftheshape-filesandDigitalElevationModels(DEMs)tomyUSBdrive’sProjectfolder.ThenIextractedthefilestomakesurealltheinformationwasaccessible.
(4) ArcGISProcessing:a) IfirstchangedtheLayerscoordinatesystemtoGCSNAD1983,sothedatawasprojectedwith
theleastamountofdistortion.b) Iaddedinallofmyshape-filesandDEMstotheblankArcMapdocument.ThenIusedthe
projecttoolinArctoolboxtoprojectalloftheshape-filestothesamecoordinatesystemastheLayers(GCSNAD1983).TochangetheDEMs,IlocatedeachDEMinArcCatalogandchangedthe
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
-'
9"")4%378&':6:8&B'%3'8$&'@&3&)7*'^)"#&)8%&:E'C$&)&2")&;'7**'8$&'4787'F7:'799>)78&*6'>:&4'%3'8$&')7:8&)'97*9>*78")'734'9">*4'5&'&7:%*6'&4%8&4'56'">8:%4&'>:&):E',
3#! b'F738&4'8"'9)&78&'7':878&'">8*%3&':$7#&?2%*&'"2'C&D7:'>:%3<'8$&'O">38%&:':$7#&?2%*&;':"'b'>:&4'8$&'R3%"3'8""*'%3'8$&'[4%8")'8""*57)'IQ%<E'+K,
Q%<>)&'+P,
Q%<>)&'+'%:'4%:#*76:'B6'>:&'"2'8$&'>3%"3'8""*'8"'9)&78&'7':$7#&?2%*&'">8*%3&'"2'C&D7:E'b'9*%9J&4'"3'8$&'[4%8")'8""*57)'734':&*&98&4':87)8'&4%8%3<E'C$&3;'b'"#&3&4'8$&'Z88)%5>8&'C75*&'"2'8$&'9">38%&:':$7#&?2%*&'734':&*&98&4'7**'"2'8$&'9">38%&:E']&D8;'b'F&38'8"'8$&'[4%8")'8""*57);'734'9*%9J&4'"3'8$&'R3%"3'8""*'734':&*&98&4'8$&'9">38%&:E''
>#! R:%3<'8$&'">8*%3&:'"2'8$&'9">38%&:;'8$&'R3%"3'8""*'9)&78&4'7'3&F'#"*6<"3'"2'8$&'C&D7:'5")4&)E'b'>:&4'8$%:'3&F'#"*6<"3'8"'B7J&'7':878&'">8*%3&':$7#&?2%*&'IQ%<E'-K'
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
M'
Q%<>)&'-P'
Q%<>)&'-':$"F:'8$&'$%<$*%<$8&4'C&D7:'5")4&)'#"*6<"3'I-NfK'734'8$&'#)"9&::'"2'&D#")8%3<'8$&'4787'8"'9)&78&'7'3&F'C&D7:'">8*%3&':$7#&?2%*&E'
*#! C"'"3*6':$"F'8$&'>)573'4&3:%86'9&38&):'%3'C&D7:;'b'>:&4'8$&'O*%#'8""*'8"'9*%#'8$&'>)573'4&3:%8%&:':$7#&?2%*&'8"'8$&'3&F*6'9)&78&4'C&D7:'">8*%3&':$7#&?2%*&E,
?#! b'*75&*&4'"3*6'8$&'<)&78&)'=">:8"3?@7*A&:8"3'7)&7'9">38%&:'F%8$'8$&'c75&*%3<'8""*'%3'8$&'1)7F%3<'8""*57)E,
7#! C"'*75&*'*7)<&'9%8%&:'%3'8$&')&<%"3'b'F&38'8"'8$&'9%8%&:'Z88)%5>8&'C75*&'734'$%<$*%<$8&4'8$&'9%8%&:'b'F738&4'8"'4%:#*76E'b')%<$8'9*%9J&4'"3'8$&'9%8%&:':$7#&?2%*&'734'9$":&'[D8)798'1787E'C$%:'9)&78&4'7'3&F':$7#&?2%*&'9"387%3%3<'"3*6'8$&'*7)<&'9%8%&:'%3'8$&')&<%"3E,
@#! ]&D8;'b'9)&78&4'7'B":7%9')7:8&)'">8'"2'8$&'8F"'1[\:'"2'8$&'7)&7;':"'b'9">*4'97*9>*78&'A7*>&:'B")&'&22%9%&38*6'%3'8$&'a7:8&)'O7*9>*78")'IQ%<E'MK,
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
f'
Q%<>)&'MP'
Q%<>)&'M'4&B"3:8)78&:'$"F'b'9)&78&4'"3&'B":7%9')7:8&)'">8'"2'8F"'1[\:E'Q)%:8;'b'"#&3&4'Z)9C""*5"D'734':&*&98&4'8$&'\":7%9'8"']&F'a7:8&)'8""*E'b'%3#>88&4'B6'8F"'1[\')7:8&):;'#>8'8$&'@!O']Z1'+.XM'9"")4%378&':6:8&B;'8$&'M-g`bCgQcdZC;'8$&'9&**:%_&'"2'.E-N.-N.M&?//N;'734'+'7:'8$&'3>B5&)'"2'5734:E'C$%:'9)&78&4'7'3&F'&22%9%&38'B":7%9')7:8&)E'
4#! b'"#&3&4'8$&'a7:8&)'O7*9>*78")'8"'9)&78&'7'3&F')7:8&);'2)"B'B6'B":7%9')7:8&);'8"')&#)&:&38'+'B&8&)'"2':&7'*&A&*')%:&'IQ%<E'fKE'R:%3<'8$&':7B&'#)"9&::;'b'B74&'3&F')7:8&):'2")':&7'*&A&*')%:&'"2'M'B;'G'B;'++'B;'+N'B;'734'-/'BE,
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
N'
Q%<>)&'fP'
Q%<>)&'f':$"F:'8$&'9)&78%"3'"2'+'B&8&)':&7'*&A&*')%:&')7:8&)E'b'>:&4'8$&'a7:8&)'O7*9>*78")'8""*'%3'8$&'!#78%7*'Z37*6:%:'8""*57);'734'&38&)&4'B6'9"34%8%"37*':878&B&38E'C"':$"F'9$73<&:'%3':&7'*&A&*;'b'$74'8"':>58)798'8$&'#)&2&))&4'B&8&):'"2':&7'*&A&*')%:&'b'F738&4'8"')&#)&:&38'2)"B'8$&'1[\'&*&A78%"3')7:8&)E'
A#! b':6B5"*%_&4'8$&':&7'*&A&*')%:&'7:'5*>&'I2")'F78&)K'734'8$&'>3722&98&4'*734'7:'$"**"FE'B#! b'744&4'7'57:&'B7#'8"'<%A&'B6'B7#'B")&'4&2%3%8%"3E'2#! b'F738&4'8"'4%:#*76'8$&'"3*6'8$&'>)573'7)&7:'F%8$%3'8$&'B":7%9')7:8&)')&<%"3E'C$>:;'b'>:&4'8$&'
1)7F%3<'8""*'8"'9)&78&'7')&9873<*&'7)">34'8$&'&D8&38'"2'8$&'B":7%9')7:8&)E'b'>:&4'8$%:')&9873<*&'8"'9*%#'8$&'>)573'4&3:%86':$7#&?2%*&'8"'8$%:')&<%"3'IQ%<E'NK'
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
0'
Q%<>)&'N'
b3'Q%<>)&'N'b'9"3A&)8&4'8$&'#"*6<"3'8"'7':$7#&?2%*&'>:%3<'8$&'O"3A&)8'@)7#$%9:'8"'Q&78>)&:'8""*'>34&)'8$&'c76&):'875E']&D8;'b'>:&4'8$&'O*%#'8""*'8"'9*%#'8$&'>)573'4&3:%86'8"'8$&'#"*6<"3':$7#&?2%*&E'C$%:'9)&78&4'7'3&F':$7#&?2%*&'8$78'4%:#*76&4'>)573'7)&7:'F%8$%3'8$&'B":7%9')7:8&)')&<%"3E'
C#! ]&D8;'b'$74'8"'#)"H&98'8$&'3&F*6'9*%##&4'>)573':$7#&?2%*&;':"'b'>:&4'8$&'^)"H&98'8""*'8"'#)"H&98'8"']Z1'+.XM'RC\'h"3&'+fE,
5#! b'97*9>*78&4'8$&'7)&7'"2'8$&'>)573%_&4')&<%"3:'5&2")&':&7'*&A&*')%:&'>:%3<'8$&'9*%##&4'>)573':$7#&?2%*&'IQ%<E'0K,
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
G'
Q%<>)&'0'
Q%<>)&'0'4&B"3:8)78&:'$"F'b'97*9>*78&4'8$&'7)&7'"2'8$&'9>))&38'>)573'&D8&38'%3'8$&'Z88)%5>8&'C75*&'>:%3<'O7*9>*78&'@&"B&8)6E'b'744&4'7'2%&*4'8"'8$&'Z88)%5>8&'C75*&'734'37B&4'%8'i!$7#&gZ)&7j'F%8$'8$&'2*"78'#)&2&)&39&E'b')%<$8'9*%9J&4'"3'8$&'2%&*4'734'9*%9J&4'O7*9>*78&'@&"B&8)6E'b'9$":&'8"'97*9>*78&'8$&'7)&7'%3'JB-E'
(#! b3'")4&)'8"'97*9>*78&'8$&'*"::'"2'>)573'7)&7'728&)'+'B'"2':&7'*&A&*')%:&;'b'$74'8"'9"3A&)8'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&')7:8&)'8"'7'#"*6<"3'IQ%<E'GKE'C$%:'%:'5&97>:&'b'F738'8"'5&'75*&'8"'>:&'8$&'[)7:&'8""*'*78&)'"3;'734'%8'"3*6'>:&:':$7#&?2%*&:E,
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
X'
Q%<>)&'G'
Q%<>)&'G'4&B"3:8)78&:'$"F'b'9"3A&)8&4'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&')7:8&)'8"'7'#"*6<"3E'b'>:&4'8$&'a7:8&)'8"'^"*6<"3'8""*'%3'8$&'!#78%7*'Z37*6:%:'8""*57)E'C$%:'9)&78&4'7'3&F'#"*6<"3':$7#&?2%*&'4%:#*76%3<'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&E''
'#! C$&3;'%3'8$&'Z88)%5>8&'C75*&'"2'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&':$7#&?2%*&'b':&*&98&4'8$&'+'A7*>&:'8"'9)&78&'7'#"*6<"3'"3*6':$"F%3<'8$&'3&F':&7'*&A&*'IQ%<E'XKE,
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
.'
Q%<>)&'X'
Q%<>)&'X':$"F:'$"F'b'9)&78&4'7'3&F'#"*6<"3')&#)&:&38%3<'8$&'3&F':&7'*&A&*'728&)'+'B')%:&E'b'"#&3&4'8$&'Z88)%5>8&'C75*&'"2'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&'#"*6<"3'734':&*&98&4'7**'"2'8$&'+'A7*>&:E'b':&*&98&4'8$&:&'A7*>&:'>:%3<'8$&'!&*&98'56'Z88)%5>8&:'2>398%"3E']&D8;'b'&D8)798&4'8$&':&*&98&4'4787'8"'9)&78&'8$&'3&F'#"*6<"3E
D#! b'>:&4'8$&'[)7:&'8""*'8"')&B"A&'8$&'>)573'7)&7:'8$78'F&)&'9"A&)&4'56'8$&'+'B')%:&'%3':&7'*&A&*'IQ%<E'.KE,
!"#$%&'("))&**++,-.,-/+0
+/'
Q%<>)&'.'
Q%<>)&'.'4&B"3:8)78&:'$"F'b'>:&4'8$&'[)7:&'8""*'8"')&B"A&'8$&'>)573'7)&7:'722&98&4'56'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&E'\6'%3#>8'2&78>)&'F7:'8$&'9*%##&4'>)573':$7#&?2%*&'734'&)7:&'2&78>)&'F7:'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&'#"*6<"3E'C$&'[)7:&'8""*'#)"4>9&4'7':$7#&?2%*&'8$78')&#)&:&38&4'8$&'>)573'7)&7:'>3722&98&4'56'8$&'+'B':&7'*&A&*')%:&E'
&#! b'$74'8"'#)"H&98'8$&'>3722&98&4'>)573'7)&7:':$7#&?2%*&'8"']Z1'+.XM'RC\'h"3&'+f'>:%3<'8$&'^)"H&98'8""*E,
)#! Z28&)'8$&':$7#&?2%*&'F7:'#)"H&98&4'b'744&4'7'3&F'2%&*4'%3'8$&'Z88)%5>8&'C75*&;'734'97*9>*78&4'8$&'7)&7'"2'>3722&98&4'>)573'&D#73:&'728&)'+'B'"2':&7'*&A&*')%:&'>:%3<'8$&'O7*9>*78&'@&"B&8)6'8""*E,
0#! b')&#&78&4':8&#:'(#E)#,8"'97*9>*78&'8$&'7)&7'*"::'"2'>)573'&D8&38'2)"B':&7'*&A&*')%:&:'"2'M'B;'G'B;'++'B;'+N'B;'734'-/'BE,
SophieWorrell11/29/2016
11
(5) Conclusion:Thecalculationofurbanarealossdemonstrateshowsignificantlytheriseinsealevelfrom1m–
20mwillaffectthegreaterHouston-Galvestonarea.Thepre-sealevelriseurbanextentwas4095km2.1mofsealevelrisedidnotnotablyaltertheurbanarea(Fig.10).Thisisgoodnewsbecauseattherateof7mm/yr.,1mofsealevelrisewilloccurin143years.Drasticchangesintheurbanextentwillappearin1000years;theurbanareawillbereducedby20%becauseof7msealevelrise.With20mofsealevelrise,mostofthegreaterHouston-Galvestonurbanareawillbeunderwater.Resultinginlossofmorethanhalfoftheurbanexpansebytheyear4876(Fig.10).Thus,globalwarminginducedsealevelrisewillgreatlyaltertheurbanexpanseoftheHouston-Galvestonarea.
Figure9:
Currenturbanarea
Urbanareaafter1msea
rise
Urbanareaafter3msea
rise
Urbanareaafter7msearise
Urbanareaafter11msearise
Urbanareaafter15msearise
UrbanAreaafter20msearise
4095km2 4073km2 3940km2 3395km2 2729km2 2241km2 1675km2
Figure9displaysallofmycalculatedareasoftheurbanexpanselostafterdifferentamountsofsealevelrise.
H A R R I SH A R R I S
F O R T B E N DF O R T B E N D
B R A Z O R I AB R A Z O R I A
C H A M B E R SC H A M B E R SJ E F F E R S O NJ E F F E R S O N
G A L V E S T O NG A L V E S T O N
The Gulf of Mexico
Alvin
Houston
BaytownAnahuac
Angleton
Galveston
Texas City
Mont Belvieu
Bolivar Peninsula
Sophie Worrell12/1/2016
±
The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Risein the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX
0 20 4010 Km
1:900,000
GCS North American 1983
Legend Water LevelCountiesUrban CentersMajor Cities
Shallow WaterModeratly Deep WaterDeep Water
Present Day Sea Level
H A R R I SH A R R I S
F O R T B E N DF O R T B E N D
B R A Z O R I AB R A Z O R I A
C H A M B E R SC H A M B E R SJ E F F E R S O NJ E F F E R S O N
G A L V E S T O NG A L V E S T O N
The Gulf of Mexico
Alvin
Houston
BaytownAnahuac
Angleton
Galveston
Texas City
Mont Belvieu
Bolivar Peninsula
Sophie Worrell12/1/2016
±
The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Risein the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX
0 20 4010 Km
1:900,000
GCS North American 1983
Legend Water LevelCountiesUrban CentersMajor Cities
Sea Level Rise
1 Meter Sea Level Rise
H A R R I SH A R R I S
F O R T B E N DF O R T B E N D
B R A Z O R I AB R A Z O R I A
C H A M B E R SC H A M B E R SJ E F F E R S O NJ E F F E R S O N
G A L V E S T O NG A L V E S T O N
The Gulf of Mexico
Alvin
Houston
BaytownAnahuac
Angleton
Galveston
Texas City
Mont Belvieu
Bolivar Peninsula
Sophie Worrell12/1/2016
±
The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Risein the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX
0 20 4010 Km
1:900,000
GCS North American 1983
Legend Water LevelCountiesUrban CentersMajor Cities
Sea Level Rise
3 Meter Sea Level Rise
H A R R I SH A R R I S
F O R T B E N DF O R T B E N D
B R A Z O R I AB R A Z O R I A
C H A M B E R SC H A M B E R SJ E F F E R S O NJ E F F E R S O N
G A L V E S T O NG A L V E S T O N
The Gulf of Mexico
Alvin
Houston
BaytownAnahuac
Angleton
Galveston
Texas City
Mont Belvieu
Bolivar Peninsula
Sophie Worrell12/1/2016
±
The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Risein the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX
0 20 4010 Km
1:900,000
GCS North American 1983
Legend Water LevelCountiesUrban CentersMajor Cities
Sea Level Rise
7 Meter Sea Level Rise
H A R R I SH A R R I S
F O R T B E N DF O R T B E N D
B R A Z O R I AB R A Z O R I A
C H A M B E R SC H A M B E R SJ E F F E R S O NJ E F F E R S O N
G A L V E S T O NG A L V E S T O N
The Gulf of Mexico
Alvin
Houston
BaytownAnahuac
Angleton
Galveston
Texas City
Mont Belvieu
Bolivar Peninsula
Sophie Worrell12/1/2016
±
The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Risein the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX
0 20 4010 Km
1:900,000
GCS North American 1983
Legend Water LevelCountiesUrban CentersMajor Cities
Sea Level Rise
11 Meter Sea Level Rise
H A R R I SH A R R I S
F O R T B E N DF O R T B E N D
B R A Z O R I AB R A Z O R I A
C H A M B E R SC H A M B E R SJ E F F E R S O NJ E F F E R S O N
G A L V E S T O NG A L V E S T O N
The Gulf of Mexico
Alvin
Houston
BaytownAnahuac
Angleton
Galveston
Texas City
Mont Belvieu
Bolivar Peninsula
Sophie Worrell12/1/2016
±
The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Risein the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX
0 20 4010 Km
1:900,000
GCS North American 1983
Legend Water LevelCountiesUrban CentersMajor Cities
Sea Level Rise
15 Meter Sea Level Rise
H A R R I SH A R R I S
F O R T B E N DF O R T B E N D
B R A Z O R I AB R A Z O R I A
C H A M B E R SC H A M B E R SJ E F F E R S O NJ E F F E R S O N
G A L V E S T O NG A L V E S T O N
The Gulf of Mexico
Alvin
Houston
BaytownAnahuac
Angleton
Galveston
Texas City
Mont Belvieu
Bolivar Peninsula
Sophie Worrell12/1/2016
±
The Loss of Urban Area due to Sea Level Risein the Greater Houston-Galveston Area, TX
0 20 4010 Km
1:900,000
GCS North American 1983
Legend Water LevelCountiesUrban CentersMajor Cities
Sea Level Rise
20 Meter Sea Level Rise
