I

Sea Level Rise Impacts on Sea Water Intrusion

into Gaza Strip Aquifer

الخزانلي إتوي البحر علي تداخل مياه البحر ر ارتفاع مستأثيفي قطاع غزة الجوفي

Submitted by:

Mahmood H. Mattar

Supervised by:

Prof. Yunes Mogheir

Professor in Water Resources

& Environment

A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree

of Master of Engineering

December/2018

The Islamic University Gaza

Deanship of Research and Graduate Studies

Faculty of Engineering

Department of Civil Engineering

Infrastructure Program

زةــــــغب تــالميــــــت اإلســـــــــامعـالج

البحث العلمي والذراساث العليا عمادة

الهنـــــــــــــذســت تـــــــــــــــــــــــليـــك

المذنيــــــــــــتقســـــــم الهنذســـــــــت

برنـــــــــامج البنيـــــــت التحتيـــــــــــت

II

إقــــــــــــــرار

أنا الموقع أدناه مقدم الرسالة التي تحمل العنوان:

Sea Level Rise Impacts on Sea Water Intrusion

Into Gaza Aquifer

الخزانلي إتوي البحر علي تداخل مياه البحر ر ارتفاع مستأثي الجوفي في قطاع غزة

أقر بأن ما اشتملت عليو ىذه الرسالة إنما ىو نتاج جيدي الخاص، باستثناء ما تمت اإلشارة إليو حيثما ورد،

حثي لدى أي لنيل درجة أو لقب علمي أو ب االخرين وأن ىذه الرسالة ككل أو أي جزء منيا لم يقدم من قبل

مؤسسة تعليمية أو بحثية أخرى.

Declaration

I hereby certify that this submission is the result of my own work, except

where otherwise acknowledged, and that this thesis (or any part of it) has

not been submitted for a higher degree or quantification to any other

university or institution. All copyrights are reserves to IUG.

:Student's name يحىد حذ يطش اسم الطالب:

التوقيع:

Signature:

25/12/2018 التاريخ:Date:

III

IV

دي ي أ ت ما كسب ر ب

ح ب ر وال ب

ي ال

ساد ف ف هر ال

ي عملوأ ظ د ال

عض هم ي

ق ي د اس لي الن

( عون رج هم ي (14لعل

سورة الروم

V

Abstract " Sea level rise impacts on sea water intrusion in Gaza strip aquifer"

The aquifer in the Gaza Strip is suffering from the problem of salinization of ground

water resulting from sea water intrusion into the aquifer. During this research, an

assessment of one of the climate changes factors that may contribute to increase the

sea water intrusion to groundwater was carried out. This is the rise of the sea level,

which is expected to reach about 37 cm by the middle of this century (2050). The

assessment of the impacts was through the use of numerical method (Modeling).

Rainfall recharge maps were created using the GIS for the years 2010-2016. About

40% of the rainfall reaches the groundwater, and was used during modeling

seawater intrusion into the aquifer in the Gaza Strip for the extended modeling period

in 2050.

The impact of sea level rise on seawater intrusion into the aquifer was assessed by

the change in chloride concentration in the aquifer using the Modflow program to

create flow model and Seawat model to determine sea water intrusion into the Gaza

strip aquifer. Two scenarios were considered: the first without the effect of sea level

rise, while the second with the effect of rising sea level.

The results showed that the aquifer in the Gaza Strip will suffer from the arrival of

sea water to 2788m and 2858m from the sea shore line in Rafah city in 2032 under

the first and second scenarios respectively. The intrusion will reach one third of the

aquifer in 2050, in addition to more than half of the aquifer will contain a chloride

concentration up to 2000 mg/l.

In relation to the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the aquifer , the

results showed an increase in sea water intrusion into the aquifer not exceeding 100

meters in year 2050. This is a small contribution to the sea water intrusion compared

to other factors that cause sea water intrusion into aquifer such as over pumping from

the aquifer and reduction in the aquifer recharge.

Key-Words: Seawater intrusion , Sea level rise , Climate change , Gaza strip

VI

الملخص

" في قطاع غزة الجوفي الخزان ر إلير ارتفاع مستوي البحر علي تداخل مياه البحتأثي"

انخضا ؼا انخضا اندىف ف قطاع غضج ي يشكهح ذهح انا اندىفح اناذدح ػ ذذاخم يا انثحش إن

انر ذؼذ يصذس انا انىحذ انغز نهسكا ف قطاع غضج , خالل هزا انثحث ذد دساسح ذقح ألحذ اندىف

انثحش و انز ي يهى اسذفاع يسرى انخضا اندىف انرغشاخ اناخح انر قذ ذسهى ف صادج ذذاخم انثحش إن

( ي خالل اسرخذاو انطشقح انؼذدح " 0202سى يغ يرصف انقش انحان ) 73انرىقغ أ صم إن قشاتح

انزخح "

ظى انؼهىياخ اندغشافح ذى إشاء خشائظ إػادج ذغزح انخضا اندىف ي يا األيطاس تاسرخذاو تشايح

خضا اندىف , و إن ان% ي يا األيطاس ذصم 02و أظهشخ أ قشاتح ,0202و 0202نهسىاخ ت ػاو

ف قطاع غضج نفرشج انزخح انرذج حر انخضا اندىفاسرخذيد خالل ػهح زخح ذذاخم يا انثحش إن

. 0202ػاو

ذشكض االػراد ػهت انخضا اندىف إن انثحش يا ذاخمذ ػه انثحش طحس يسرىي اسذفاع ذأثش ذقى ذى

إن انثحش يا ذسشب نرحذذ Seawat وىرج , ذذفق ىرج إلشاء Modflow تشايح اسرخذو ,ذانكهىس

تا , انثحش سطح يسرىي اسذفاع ذأثش دو األول , ساسىه ػرثاسا ذى. غضجقطاع ف انخضا اندىف

.انثحش سطح يسرىي اسذفاع ذأثش يغ انثا

و ف 0202و و 0322إن ؼا ي وصىل يا انثحش ف قطاع غضج س انخضا اندىفو أظهشخ انرائح تأ

ف إطاس انساسى األول و انثا ػه انرشذة , و يرىقغ أ صم إن ثهث انخضا 0270يطقح سفح ف ػاو

تاإلضافح إن أ أكثش ي صف انخضا اندىف سحرى ػه سثح ذشكض كهىسذ 0202اندىف ف ػاو

يهغى / نرش . 0222ذصم إن

أيا ف يا رؼهق تأثش اسذفاع يسرى انثحش ػه ذذاخم يا انثحش إن انخضا اندىف فأظهشخ انرائح صادج ف

يرش , و ؼذ رنك يساهح قههح تقاسح يغ ػىايم 022ذذاخم يا انثحش إن طثقح انا اندىفح ال ذرداوص

ندىف و ذاقص ذغزح ايثم انضخ انفشط ي انخضا سثثح نرذاخم يا انثحش إن انخضا اندىف أخش ي

انخضا اندىف .

ذسشب يا انثحش , اسذفاع يسرى انثحش , انرغش اناخ , قطاع غضج .كلماث مفتاحيت :

VII

Dedication

This thesis is dedicated to my parents, my wife and my children,

For their endless love, support and encouragement.

VIII

Acknowledgement

I would like to express my thanks to the supervisor, Prof. Yunes

Mogheir, for all the good advice in the project. The work in this thesis

was not completed without his instructions and supervision.

I am also grateful to anyone who has taught me a letter throughout my

scientific life.

IX

Table of contents

Abstract ..................................................................................................................... V

VI ......................................................................................................................... يهخص

Dedication ............................................................................................................... VII

Acknowledgement ................................................................................................. VIII

List of figures ......................................................................................................... .XII

List of tables ............................................................................................................ XV

Acronyms and abbreviations ................................................................................. XVI

Chapter1 Introduction ..........................................................................................1

1.1 Introduction ……………………….…………………………………………....2

1.2 Problem Statement…………………………………………………………….2

1.3 Research Objectives……………………………………………………………3

1.4 Research Importance…………………………………………………………..3

1.5 Research Structure…………………………………………………………….4

Chapter 2Literature Review ……………………………………...…………......6

2.1 Climate Changes ……………………………………….……..…………….7

2.1.1 Definition of climate changes ………………………….………………………7

2.1.2 Causes of climate change ………………………………….…………………...8

2.1.3 Observed changes & Future prediction …………………………..…………….9

2.1.4 Impacts of climate change…………………………………………………….12

2.2 Sea level rise ……………………………………………………………14

2.2.1 Sea level rise historically …………………………………………..…………15

2.2.2 Approaches of study sea level rise impact…..………………………………...16

2.2.3 Concluding Remarks…………………………………………………………..28

Chapter 3 Study Area : Gaza Strip ………………………………………...…29

3.1 Geography…..…..…………………………………………………………….30

3.2 Geology……………………………………………………………………….30

3.3 Topography……....…………………………………………………………...31

3.4 Aquifer….…...………..…………...………………………………………….32

3.5 Soil…..…….……………………………………………..…………………...34

3.6 Rainfall…...…..……….………………………..…………………………….35

3.7 Population…………………………………………………………………….36

X

3.8 Ground Water Level…………...…………………………………………...37

3.9 Water Quality...……………………………………………………………...38

3.9.1 Chloride concentration………………………………………………………...39

3.9.2 Nitrate concentration…………………………………………………………..39

Chapter 4 Research Methodology ………………………………………..…..42

4.1 The Methodology……..….…………………………………………………..43

4.2 Preparing data...……………………………………………………………...45

4.3 Recharge Model…..…………………………………………………………45

4.4 Modflow Model………..……………………………………………………47

4.5 Seawat Model……………..…………………………………………………48

4.6 Prediction of future scenarios ………...…….………………………………...50

Chapter 5 Results and Discussions …………………………………………...51

5.1 Recharge Model……………………………………………………………...52

5.2 Groundwater Flow and Seawat Modeling……………………………...54

5.2.1 Model setting up ……………………………………………………………...54

5.2.2 Pumping wells ………………………………………………………………...56

5.2.3 Head Observation wells ……………………………………………………....57

5.2.4 Concentration Observation wells ……………………………………………..58

5.2.5 Layers and Properties …………………………………………………………59

5.2.6 Boundary Conditions for Seawat ……………………………………………..61

5.2.7 Models calibration………………..…………………………………………..61

5.3 Prediction of mean sea level rise Impacts…...…………………64

5.3.1 First Scenario: without the effect mean sea level rise ………………...……...64

5.3.2 Second Scenario: with the effect mean sea level rise ……………………...68

5.4 Comparison between the two scenarios…………………………….....71

5.5 Comparison of current research with other researchers…………...72

Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations ………………………….....73

6.1 Conclusion……………….…………………………………………………....74

6.2 Recommendations…...………………………………………………………..74 References ……………………………………………………………………...…76

XI

Appendix …………………………………………………………...……………..81

XII

List of figures

Figure (2.1) : Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases 1970-2010 ....…8

Figure (2.2) : Contribution of fossil fuels to CO2 emissions during 1970-2010 ….....9

Figure (2.3) : CO2 concentration predictions ..............................................................9

Figure (2.4) : Surface temperature : past –present ...…………………………..……10

Figure (2.5) : Change in average surface temperature until 2100..……... …… ……10

Figure (2.6): Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature

anomaly ……………………………………………………………………………..11

Figure (2.7) : Ocean acid …………….………………………………………….….11

Figure (2.8) : Change in average precipitation until 2100 ……………………...…..12

Figure (2.9) : Globally averaged sea level change………………………..…..……..15

Figure (2.10) : Sea rise expected during the 21st century …………………………..16

Figure (2.11) : Parameters of the aquifer used ……………………………………...20

Figure (2.12,a ) : Flux-Controlled …………………………………………………..21

Figure (2.12,b ) : Head-Controlled Systems …………….…………………………21

Figure (2.13) : Results of the analysis under the conditions of the first scenario ….22

Figure (2.14) : Compares the results of the first, third and fifth scenarios ………....23

Figure (2.15) : Compares the results of the second , four and fifth scenarios ……...23

Figure (2.16) : Sensitivity results ………...………………………………………....24

Figure (2.17) : The change of the interface toe position LT for different scenarios of

sea-level rise ……………………………………………………………………..…26

Figures (2.18) : Results for the six scenarios in order ……………………………...27

Figure(2.19): The results of the scenario analysis on the north Gaza aquifer ……...28

Figure (3.1) : Location map of Gaza Strip, Palestine ……………………………....30

Figure (3.2) : Topography of Gaza Strip (topographic-map, 2018) …………..……31

Figure (3.3) : flow into Gaza Strip aquifer ……………………………….………...32

Figure (3.4) : Typical hydrogeological cross section of Gaza Strip …………..…....33

Figure (3.5) : The different hydraulic conductivity values …………………………33

Figure (3.6) : Water balance of Gaza Strip ………………………….……………...34

Figure (3.7) : Soil map of Gaza Strip …………………...…………………………..35

Figure (3.8) : average annual rainfall with the Gaza Strip ………………….………36

XIII

Figure (3.9) : Water Level the Gaza Strip in 2016 ……………….………………...38

Figure (3.10) : Chloride Concentration in the Gaza Strip in 2016 ……..………...…40

Figure (3.11): Nitrate Concentration in the Gaza Strip ………………...…………..41

Figure (4.1) : Research Methodology ………………………………………………44

Figure (4.2) : Built up area in Gaza strip …………………………………………...46

Figure (5.1.a) : Rainfall in 2010 …………………………………………..………...52

Figure (5.1.b) : Recharge in 2010 ………………………………………..…………52

Figure (5.2.a) : Rainfall in 2013 ………………………………………………….....53

Figure (5.2.b) : Recharge in 2013 …………………………………………………..53

Figure (5.3.a) : Rainfall in 2016 …………………………………………………....53

Figure (5.3.b) : Recharge in 2016 ………………………………………………......53

Figure (5.4) : The grid model …………………………………………………...….54

Figure (5.5) : The boundaries head in 2016 …………………………………...……55

Figure (5.6) : Distribution of pumping wells in Gaza strip. …………………….…...56

Figure (5.7) : Distribution of head observation wells in Gaza strip. ………………...57

Figure (5.8) : Distribution of concentration observation wells in Gaza strip ………..58

Figure (5.9.a) : A cross-section of the layers in North of Gaza strip (section A-A

in Figure (5.8)) …..………………………………………………………………....59

Figure (5.9.b) : A cross-section of the layers in South of Gaza strip (section B-B in

Figure(5.8)) …………………………………………. ……………………………..59

Figure (5.10) : The hydraulic conductivity zones in the model …….……….60

Figure (5.11.a) : Flow model calibration in 2013……………….………..……...62

Figure (5.11.b) : Seawat model calibration in 2013 …….…………………………..62

Figure (5.12.a) : Flow model calibration in 2016 ………………………………...63

Figure (5.12.b) : Seawat model calibration in 2016 ……………………….………..64

Figure (5.13.a) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2022 to 2032.65

Figure (5.13.b) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2037 to 2050.66

Figure (5.14) : A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from 2022

to 2050 in North of Gaza strip ( section A-A).……………………………..……….67

Figure (5.15.a) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2022 to 2032.68

Figure (5.15.b) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2037 to 2050.69

XIV

Figure (5.16) : A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from 2022

to 2050 in North of Gaza strip (section X-X).……………………………. ………..70

XV

List of tables

Table (2.1) : Parameters of the aquifer used (Werner & Simmons, 2009)...….....….20

Table (3.1) : The main types of soils available in the Gaza Strip…………………...34

Table (3.2) : Population in Gaza Governorates in 2016 ………….…………...…....37

Table (4.1) : filtration rate for the different soils available in the Gaza Strip……….45

Table (5.1) : The hydraulic conductivity in Gaza strip ……………..………………60

Table (5.2) : The other properties for layers …………………………...…………..61

Table (5.3) : Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 16000 mg/l in

Jabalia ………………………………………………………………………………71

Table (5.4) : Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 16000mg/l in

Rafah ………………………………………………………………………………..71

Table (A-1) : Levels of the Gaza Strip ………………………………………….…. 81

Table (A-2) : Coordinates of the monitoring stations in the Gaza strip ………….... 85

Table (A-3) : Water Levels of the Gaza Strip in Sep. 2016 and average ……….….85

Table (A-4) : Concentration " CL " of the Gaza Strip in. 2016. …………...…..…..87

XVI

Acronyms and abbreviations

GIS Geographical Information Systems

GMSL Global Mean Sea Level

MSL Mean Sea level

km Kilometer

m Meter

NASA National Aeronautics And Space Administration

PWA Palestinian Water Authority

WHO World Health Organization

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

CCSP Climate Change Science Program

UNEP United Nations Environment Program

CMWU Coastal Municipalities Water Utility

AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program

PCBS Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics

GHG Green Houses Gases

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CH4 Methane gas

N2O Nitrous oxide

ppm Parts Per Million

C Celsius

NGND29 National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929

l/c/d Liter per Capita per Day

TDS Total Dissolved Solids

MCM Million Cubic Meter

mg/l Milligram Per Liter

1

Chapter one

Introduction

2

1 Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Introduction:

The aquifers are an important resource in coastal regions because these serve as

major sources for freshwater supply in many countries around the world, especially

in arid and semi-arid zones (Naderi et al., 2013) .

Groundwater is the only natural source that feeds the population in fresh water in the

Gaza Strip about 98% of consumption, most of these coastal regions rely on

groundwater as their main source of fresh water for domestic, industrial and

agricultural purposes, the coastal aquifer in Gaza jointly with occupied Palestine and

parts of northern Egypt. The water sector suffers from a number of problems, the

problem of water salinity is the most prominent, the sea water intrusion into the

coastal aquifer explained one of the features of this problem (Bably, 2016;PWA,

2014).

Seawater intrusion occurs when saline (salty) water is drawn into a freshwater

aquifer. Seawater intrusion can affect one well, or multiple wells in an aquifer,

making the water unpotable (unpleasant to drink) (Barroso & Henderson, 2016).

Seawater intrusion is affected by several direct factors, for example, rate of pumping

from wells, rainfall rates, soil type and layers conductivity, As well as indirect

factors resulting from changes in climate, such as tidal fluctuations, long-term

climate and sea level changes, fractures in coastal rock formations and seasonal

changes in evaporation, recharge rate (Barlow, 2003).

Climate change is the main factor in sea level change, through variations in

atmospheric pressure, rising temperatures, melting of ice, which leads to sea level

change (Werner& Simmons, 2009).

Global mean sea level (GMSL) increased by an average rate of 1.8 mm/year during

the 20th century. The IPCC (2007) reports a high confidence that this rate has been

increasing (Lo´aiciga et al ., 2012).

1.2 Problem Statement:

Gaza coastal aquifer is the main source of water for supplying agriculture, domestic,

and industrial purposes in Gaza Strip, and provides about 98% of all water supplies

3

(PWA, 2014). The aquifer in Gaza suffers from some problems, most notably the

high salinity of water due to the sea water intrusion into the aquifer.

The industrial revolution has contributed significantly to the rapid increase in climate

change and global warming, which affects the whole world, leaving behind the rising

sea level due to the melting of ice and other reasons. Many international studies have

revealed that this rise of the sea level contributes to the increase of sea water

intrusion into the aquifer. However, in the Gaza Strip this rise might contribute to

increase the sea-water intrusion into the coastal aquifer. This study will be the first

attempt to study the impact of the sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the Gaza

Strip aquifer.

1.3 Research Objectives:

The main aim of this research is to determine the contribution of sea level rise in the

increase of sea water intrusion into groundwater in the Gaza Strip.

To be more specific, the objectives of this research are:

To develop GIS model, to predict values of the recharge that will feed the

aquifer.

To predict the extent of sea water " intrusion" in future depending on

various scenarios of future sea level and other hydrological using numerical

approach.

1.4 Research Importance:

Based on several studies, the relationship between sea level change and sea water

intrusion into the aquifer in the Gaza Strip in particular has not been studied, except

for a study of the northern Gaza Strip, which represents a small area of the total area

of the Gaza Strip.

This research can be considered an accurate contribution to illustrate this effect on

the aquifer in Gaza strip, as well as a contribution to the study of climate change in

our region. This may be useful in the management of groundwater by the competent

institutions, specifically on the subject of groundwater consumption.

4

1.5 Research Structure:

The thesis is divided into six chapters and appendix.

Chapter One (Introduction):

The first chapter presents an overview of groundwater in the Gaza Strip with a focus

on the problem of sea water intrusion, a description of the problem in the Gaza Strip,

presents the main objectives of the research and explains the importance of this

research and what it can offer decision makers.

Chapter Two (Literature Review):

The second chapter presents a historical overview of global and local climate

changes, with previous studies showing the impact of climate change on different

lifestyles such as agriculture and water.

This chapter continues to present a special and deep historical overview of sea level

changes in the past and predict the future. The latest studies in the field of sea level

rise affect sea water intrusion into the aquifer around the world and local studies in

this regard.

Chapter Three (Study Area):

The third chapter deals with the description of the area of study "Gaza Strip" in terms

of: geology, topography, soil, aquifer, rainfall, groundwater level, water quality and

population .

Chapter Four (Methodology):

The fourth chapter defines the methodology used in this research and presents a

presentation of the tools used in the research, such as GIS and Modflow , in addition

to the expected scenarios.

Chapter Five (Results and Discussion):

The fifth chapter provides a modeling approach for the Gaza Strip to produce

recharging maps for the aquifer for the specified years by GIS and then use them in

the Modflow model to predict the effect of sea level changes on sea water intrusion

into the aquifer in the Gaza Strip, and comparing results from previous studies.

5

Chapter Six (Conclusions and Recommendations):

The sixth chapter presents the conclusions and recommendations of this research .

Appendix

Appendix provides databases used for research through Gaza Strip data tables and

maps such as water level, aquifer, land use maps, soil maps, etc.. .

6

Chapter two

Literature Review

7

Chapter two : Literature Review

This chapter presented a historical overview of global and local climate changes and

sea level changes in the past and predict the future. It also presented previous studies

showed the impacts of climate change on different lifestyles such as agriculture and

water. In addition, the chapter illustrated sea level rise impact on sea water intrusion

into the aquifers around the world and local studies in this regard.

2.1 Climate Changes:

Climate is a dynamic system and subject to natural variations at various time-scales,

from years to millennia (Sherif & Singh, 1999). Changes in climate have significant

implications for present lives, for future generations and for ecosystems on which

humanity depends. Consequently, climate change has been and continues to be the

subject of intensive scientific research and public debate (Royal society,2010). There

is robust scientific consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring

(CCSP, 2008). During the past 200 years, human influence on the climate system is

clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are the highest

in history (IPCC, 2014). Many studies indicate that natural causes do not exceed 1%

( PHI & CCCH, 2016).

2.1.1 Definition of climate changes:

Some climate-related institutions and reports have definitions of climate change :

National Aeronautics And Space Administration, Climate change is a change in the

usual weather found in a place. This could be a change in how much rain a place

usually gets in a year. Or it could be a change in a place's usual temperature for a

month or season. Climate change is also a change in Earth's climate. This could be a

change in Earth's usual temperature. Or it could be a change in where rain and snow

usually fall on Earth (Nasa, 2014).

The Public Health Institute / Center for Climate Change and Health, Climate change

is “ a systematic change in the long-term state of the atmosphere over multiple

decades or longer ” (PHI & CCCH, 2016).

World Health Organization (WHO), climate change is a disturbance in the earth's

atmosphere with the rise in the temperature of the planet, and a significant change in

8

the nature of natural phenomena with a tendency to violence, and the continued

deterioration of vegetation and environmental diversity (Michael et al., 2003).

2.1.2 Causes of climate change:

During the last millennium, changes in the output of energy from the sun, volcanic

eruptions and increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have

been the most important forcing. Total irradiative forcing has been positive and has

led to an up-take of energy by the climate system (IPCC, 2013). The warming

observed since the middle of the last century is likely due to increased human and

economic activities that have led to increased greenhouse gas ( CO2 , CH4 and N2O)

emissions, as shown in Figure (2.1).

The carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere (2040 GtCO2) between 1750 and

2010 were caused by economic activity, about 40% of which remained in the

atmosphere, the oceans retained about 30% and the rest were stored in plants and

soils, and about (1020 GtCO2) emissions Carbon dioxide is the product of just 40

years, in particular between 2000 and 2010, despite a decrease of (49 GtCO2) in

2010 (IPCC, 2014). Fossil fuels accounted for 78% of CO2 emissions during 1970

and 2010, as shown in Figure(2.2). By 2016, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere

were 404 (PPM), the highest levels in 400,000 years and up almost 7% since 2007

(Henderson, 2017).

Figure (2.1): Total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions by gases 1970-2010

(IPCC, 2013).

9

All predict further increase in carbon dioxide concentrations by the end of this

century, with some of the scenarios predicting a doubling or even trebling of today's

levels of carbon dioxide (ghgonline.org), as shown in Figure (2.3).

Current understanding indicates that even if there was a complete cessation of

emissions of CO2 today from human activity, it would take several millennia for CO2

concentrations to return to preindustrial concentrations (Royal society, 2010).

2.1.3 Observed Changes & Future Prediction:

A study for the Public Health Institute/Center for Climate Change and Health

published in 2016 refers to 97% of climate scientists agree: (Climate change is

Figure (2.2): Contribution of fossil fuels to CO2 emissions during 1850-2010 (IPCC,

2013).

Figure (2.3): CO2 concentration predictions (IPCC, 2013).

10

happening now, It is being driven primarily by human activity and We can do

something to reduce its impacts and progression.) (PHI & CCCH, 2016).

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have significantly enhanced the

greenhouse effect causing the Earth's average temperature to rise by 0.80C (Hansen,

2012), with much of this increase taking place since the mid-1970s, as shown in

Figure (2.4). While 2016 was 0.50C warmer than the average for 1981 to 2010 (Met

office, 2016). The global mean surface temperature will expect to change for the

period from 2016 to 2035 by 0.30C to 0.7

0 C and from 2081 to 2100 by more than

1.50C to 2.0

0C. If the predicted increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are then

translated into temperature changes, a global temperature increase of between 10C

and 5.50C in the end century, as shown in Figure (2.5).

Figure (2.4): Surface temperature : past & present (IPCC, 2014).

Figure (2.5): Change in average surface temperature from 1986-2005 to2081- 2100

(IPCC, 2013).

11

The oceans are warmer than the Earth's surface, the upper 75 m rising by an average

of 0.330C during 1970- 2010. While the globally averaged combined Earth's surface

and ocean temperature rose by an average of 0.850C during the period 1885 to 2012

(IPCC, 2014), as shown in Figure (2.6).

As a result, the area of permafrost near the surface (upper 3.5 m) projected to

decrease by 37%, and the global glacier volume is projected to decrease 15 to 55 %

by 2100 (IPCC, 2014).

The CO2 uptake in the oceans increased by 26% acidity due to pH drop of ocean

surface by 0.1, as shown in Figure (2.7) (Henderson, 2017).

Figure (2.6): Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly

(IPCC, 2014).

Figure (2.7): Ocean acid (Henderson, 2017).

12

Evaporation rates will increase with a warmer climate, causing an increase in the

amount of moisture in the lower atmosphere. With higher water vapor

concentrations, there is an increased frequency of intense precipitation events,

primarily over land areas. However, precipitation changes around the globe will not

be uniform. Some areas will actually see decreases in precipitation. Figure (2.8)

shows the changes in average precipitation for 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005

(NASA,2014).

2.1.4 Impacts of climate change:

The World Health Organization estimated that the warming and precipitation trends

due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30  years already claim over

150,000 lives annually (Patz et al., 2005).

In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering

hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality

many terrestrial, freshwater and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges,

seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and species interactions in

response to ongoing climate change (IPCC, 2014).

Some studies have examined the impact of climate change such as :

Latifovic & Pouliot, 2007 concerned with assessing the impact of climate change on

the ice lake in Canada in terms of timing of ice melt in the lake, start freezing and

freeze duration, using historical satellite records using infrared sensors, data were

collected for 20 lakes under 180 cases. Analyzes refer to the period from 1950 to

Figure (2.8): Change in average precipitation (1986-2005 to 2081- 2100) (IPCC, 2013).

13

2004 earlier break-up (average 0.18 days/year) and later freeze-up (average 0.12

days/year) for the majority of lakes analyzed. Trend analysis performed shows that

ice break-up is occurring earlier and freeze-up latter for most lakes in Canada with

regional differences between eastern, western and the far northern regions.

Chiew et al., 2009 estimated the impact of climate change on runoff in South East

Australia , using concept model SIMHYD. Results showed uncertainties in runoff in

South East Australia, the majority of modeling predicts a 17% decrease in runoff,

while some modeling indicates a 7% increase in runoff, under thermal warming for

the study area 0.90C.

Lejeusne et al., 2010 assessed the impact of climate change on marine ecosystems,

researchers take the Mediterranean as a small ocean model to study these effects.

The results indicated that the combination of heat stress and lack of food leads to

mass deaths usually in the late summer, especially in the hall such as sponge. In

addition, climate changes have affected the surface plankton area, which represents

food for small surface fish such as sardines and thus a significant decline in their

stock as observed in recent decades, also led to the presence of new species of

predatory fish coming from the Red Sea and the spread of large coasts of the

Mediterranean, leading to a significant decline in the diversity of biological systems,

while in the deep impact on grass and algae.

Ajjur, 2012 investigated the impact of climate change on the groundwater sources in

the northern Gaza Strip by estimating the recharge levels of the aquifer and their

effect on the groundwater level, using three monitoring stations "Beit Lahia station,

Gaza station and Rafah station" using the modeling Modflow program. The model

experiments are two scenarios, the first scenario represents the continued recharge

of the aquifer for 2010 "initial value" as it continues for other years, the other

scenario is the decline in recharge for aquifer in 2015 with the same rate of decline as

in previous years.

WetSpass Model program were used to estimate the recharge levels for the aquifer

for the years 1990 to 2010 through annual precipitation "different from one region to

another". The results for recharge the aquifer were 572.9, 679.5, 426.69,404.9 and

272.3mm for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, respectively.

14

The results of the first scenario analysis through the modflow program " for 20 years

2010 to 2030" indicated a decreased in head values "groundwater levels of aquifer"

from -5 meters in mid at 2010 to -6, -7.5, -8 and -8.5 m in 2015, 2020, 2025 and

2030, respectively. While under the conditions of the second scenario, the head value

decreased to -8.5 m in the middle of the region, -7.5 m at the eastern boundary of

2030.

Mizyed, 2018 examined the challenges of climate change on water sources in

Palestine, through hydraulics modeling of annual precipitation and evaporation on

natural groundwater recharge.

The results of this study indicated that a rise in temperature by 20C to 3

0C leads to a

decreased in the annual recharge of the aquifer by 6% to 13% , while the aquifer is

more sensitive to the change in annual precipitation, where it is clear that the

reduction of precipitation by 3 to 10% in precipitation from the annual rate leads to a

reduction in recharge of the aquifers by 3 to 25%.

The study concluded that climate change will be more severe in drier areas, where it

will reduce water availability.

2.2 Sea level rise:

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal , and since the 1950s , many of the

observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and

ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has

risen (IPCC, 2014).

Sea level rise is a major result of global warming due to climate change (Church et

al., 2008), as a result of melting of ice sheets, way of changes to atmospheric

pressure, expansion of oceans and seas as they warm and glaciers (Werner &

Simmons, 2009). The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) has determined

that a 1.5 meter sea rise in Bangladesh coast, it threatening 17 million people by 15%

of the population living in the coast, and affecting 22,000 km2 of land by 16% of the

coastline (UNEP, 2018).

The impacts of sea-level rise include coastal inundation and erosion, higher waves at

the coast, and sea water intrusion into estuaries, wetlands and aquifers (Church et al.,

15

2008). There are many studies around the world studied this effect, and some of

these studies are mentioned in a later part of this research. This research aims to

study this effect on the aquifer of the Gaza Strip.

2.2.1 Sea level rise historically:

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report that sea level rise during the 2000s B.P did not

exceed a few tens of millimeters, then during the nineteenth century rates have

become even greater, the rate during 1901-1990 was 1.5 (1.3 to 1.7) mm/yr, and

increased by doubling during 1993-2010 was 3.2 (2.8 to 3.6) mm/yr, as shown in

Figure (2.9). It is expected to exceed this rate during the 21st century, until sea level

reaches about 0.88-1.1 m, Figure(2.10) show the expectations of sea level rise during

the twenty-first century.

Figure (2.9): Globally averaged sea level change (Robert scribbler, 2017).

16

Mediterranean Sea Level:

Since the start of the 21st century the Mediterranean sea level has already risen by 20

centimeters and it has risen by between 1 and 1.5 millimeters each year since 1943,

but this does not seem set to continue, because it now seems that the speed at which

it rises is accelerating(PHYS.ORG,2011).

In Palestine, the measurements conducted in the late 20th century in the Haifa city

indicated a rise in the Mediterranean level by 2.8 mm/year (Sarsak, 2011). There are

studies attributed to the Israeli Ministry of Environment to increase the level of sea

by 10 mm / year (Mogheir & Rabah, 2015).

In this research, sea level rise of 20 cm was adopted in 2016 and increased by 5

mm/ year according to the expectations of the IPCC for the rise of the

Mediterranean level during the current century. An addition of 17 cm from

year 2016 will be the end of the modeling period " year 2050". This means that

at year 2050 the sea level will be 37 cm.

2.2.2 Approaches of study sea level rise impact:

Aquifers form a coastline, a natural gradient exists towards the coast and

groundwater discharges into the sea. Because sea water is slightly heavier than fresh

water, it intrudes into aquifers in coastal areas forming a saline wedge below the

Figure (2.10): Sea rise observed and expected during the 21st century

(Vemeer&Rahmsrof, 2009)

17

fresh water (UK groundwater). Therefore, sea water intrusion occurs with

groundwater in coastal aquifers.

Some studies have been conducted to determine the effect of sea level rise on sea

water intrusion on groundwater in coastal aquifers around the world , by two

approaches:

Analytic solution: Mathematical approach calculates the sea water intrusion

into the aquifer through the equations, using the different solution, such as

Strack developed an analytic solution for the regional interface problems in

coastal aquifers based on the single-valued potentials, the Dupuit assumption

and the Ghyben-Herzberg formula for the steady state flow conditions (

Shishaye, 2016; Strack, 1976).

A numerical model: A simulation approach to predict the results of sea-water

intrusion into the aquifer through different modeling programs such as "

Modflow , SEAWAT ". A sharp interface numerical model is developed to

simulate saltwater intrusion in multilayered coastal aquifer systems. The

model takes into account the flow dynamics of salt water and fresh water

assuming a sharp interface between the two liquids (Huyakorn& Park, 1996).

The following are samples of such studies:

Sherif & Singh, 1999 studied two aquifers with different geometric and hydraulics

properties, the Nile Delta aquifer in Egypt and the Madras aquifer in India were

employed to study the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the aquifers ,

Through a two-dimensional vertical simulation used the 2D-FED model , it is

examined of two different levels of sea level rise, represented the first and second

scenarios by sea level rise at 0.2 meter and 0.5 meters, respectively, as well as under

the condition of excessive pumping represented by the third scenario with the

stability of sea level rise at 0.5 meters and the 0.5 meter drop in free water table due

to excessive pumping in the Nile Delta aquifer and 0.2 meter in the Madras aquifer.

After modeled, the 5000 PPM line and the 1000 PPM line were used to determine the

response of the aquifers to seawater intrusion under the three scenarios.

The results of the analysis indicated the progress of the 5000 PPM line and the 1000

PPM line to the land by 2.0 km and 2.5 km respectively in the Nile Delta aquifer, 36

18

m and 102 m respectively in the Madras aquifer under the conditions of scenario one,

under the conditions of the second scenario, the 5000PPM line offers a distance of

4.5 km, 9 km for the 1000PPM line in the Nile Delta aquifer , 60 meters and 500

meters respectively for the Madras aquifer. While the 5,000 PPM line of the Nile

Delta aquifer under the conditions of the third scenario was 11.5 km , the 1000PPM

line was 9 km .

Finally, the main result is that a sea level rise of 50 cm causes sea water intrusion of

9 km in the Nile Delta aquifer, 0.5 km for the Madras aquifer, due to the difference

in the hydrological parameters of aquifers in Egypt and India, in addition to the

difference in the rate of pumping from the aquifer.

Masterson & Garabedian, 2007 used the system with six separate flow layers

bounded from the bottom by sand, mud and gravel deposits overlooking the Atlantic

Ocean is the subject of this paper "The Cape Cod aquifer". For this purpose,

researchers developed three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model

depends on density for simulate sea water intrusion into the aquifer, Which is

located along the Atlantic coast of the United States, SEAWAT-2000 was used for

this analysis. The simulation based on the empirical relation between salt

concentration and salt water density developed by Baxter and Wallace:

ρ =ρf +E C ………… ( 2.1 )

Where, ρ is density of salt water, (C) is salt concentration, (E) is a dimensionless

constant of about 0.7143 and ρf is the density of fresh water " 1000 kg/m3" .

Two scenarios were simulated in this study: (1) the stream was not tidally influenced

( i.e. the stream stage was held constant for the simulation period.), (2) the stream

stage was increased with time , with sea levels rise by 0.32 meters in 2050.

An implicit finite-difference solution was used pattern solution in the model to solve

the two scenarios with the parameters of the aquifer.

The first location of the vertical interface on the coast is approximately 50 meters

below NGVD 29*, A 200-year simulation of this assumption was carried out, until it

reached a quasi-steady over time. Assumed the resulting interface position to

represent the initial estimate of the hydraulic conditions in the case of equilibrium at

sea level by 0.0 m.

19

The study identified three sites to study the impact of sea level rise on sea water

intrusion into the aquifer. The first and third site is about 300 meters from the shore

and the second is located in the middle of the island.

In the 1929 analysis, which was a sea level rise of 0.0, the results indicated a fresh

water / salt water interface beneath the three sites 26.2 ,43.6 and 16.8 m respectively.

These values are expected to rise by 0.8, 5.8 and 5.5 m, respectively, with sea rising

to 0.32 m under the conditions of the first scenario. The first and second sites

continued to maintain the same values of increase at sea level rise at 0.32, under the

conditions of the second scenario, while the value of the third site decreased by 1.5

meters from the value under the conditions of the first scenario.

Werner & Simmons, 2009 tested two models: (1) flux-controlled systems ( i.e., in

which ground water discharge to the sea is persistent despite changes in sea level),

(2) head-controlled systems, whereby hydrogeological controls maintain the inland

head in the aquifer despite sea-level changes, by using a sharp interface

approximation.

The simplest conceptual model "Ghyben-Herzberg approximation" is the beginning

to solve this problem:

………… (2.2)

Where , Z = Z(x) is the depth of the salt water-fresh water interface below mean sea

level (L), ρf is the fresh water density (ML_3

), ρs is the salt water density (ML_3

), h =

h(x) is the water table elevation above mean sea level (L).

In addition to use the Dupuit-Forchheimer approximations, with three conditions " a

homogeneous, isotropic unconfined coastal aquifer and steady-state conditions".

The equation for calculated ground water discharge to the coast, use Custodio &

Falkland equation:

q(x)=q0-Wx=k(h+αh)

………….. (2.3)

* These values are measured below NGVD 29 (i.e. In North America elevations are

given using either Sea Level Datum of 1929, also called the National Geodetic

Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29) (Wikipedia, 2018).

20

where q0 is uniform discharge to the sea per unit length of coastline (L2T

-1), W is

uniform net recharge (LT-1

), x is taken from the submarine aquifer outcrop (L), and

K is hydraulic conductivity (LT-1

).

Determines h(0<x<XT) through the integration Custodio equation:

h=√

……………... (2.4)

XT=

-√

………… (2.5)

z0 is increased by an amount equal to the sea level rise . To solve it , an additional

equation is necessary to describe the water table height inland of XT to account for

the base of the aquifer

h=√

(

) ……… (2.6)

The previous equations were resolved with the two conceptions models With the

parameters shown in the following Table (2.1), The figure (2.11) shows these

parameters .

Table (2.1): Parameters of the aquifer used .

W (mm/year) Z0 (m) K (m/d) a Sea-Level Rise (mm)

80 30 10 40 880

The results of the analysis of previous equations indicated that the sea water intrusion

into the aquifer did not exceed 50 meters under the conditions of Flux - Controlled

Figure (2.11) : Parameters of the aquifer used

21

Systems, while hundreds of meters exceed the kilometers under the Head-Controlled

Systems, as shown in Figure (2.12. a & 2.12.b) :

Lo´aiciga et al., 2012 presented a vision of the impact of sea level rise on the sea

water intrusion into groundwater during the 21st century. This paper is based on the

numerical model, specifically the "FEFLO " program to determine the contribution

of sea level rise into groundwater on part of the coast of California.

The mathematical equations of flow and solute transport solved by FEFLOW in this

study: , ………(2.7)

Where, ρ is density of saline water, ρf is density of fresh water, µ is dynamic

viscosity of saline water; µf is dynamic viscosity of fresh water, z is elevation, ϕ is

porosity, S f is specific storage, C is the concentration of salt, h is hydraulic head, t

is the time variable, K f is hydraulic conductivity, g is acceleration of gravity.

Solute transport equation

………… (2.8)

Where, D = hydrodynamic dispersion tensor, q is vector of darcian fluxes of

groundwater.

The numerical simulation of the model used to determine the effect of sea level rise

on seawater intrusion into the aquifer depends on the tested of five different

scenarios in terms of sea level rise expected for 2106 estimated at 1.903, 1.403,

Figure (2.12 ) , a . Flux-Controlled b. Head-Controlled Systems

22

1.903, 1.403 and 0.903 m for the five scenarios, respectively, In addition to

groundwater extraction of 15340, 15340, 9730, 9730 and 15340 (m3/d) for the five

scenarios, respectively.

The 10000 mg/l line and the 1000 mg/l line were used to indicate the response of the

aquifer to sea water intrusion resulting from sea level rise under the conditions of the

five scenarios. analyzed by a three-dimensional, finite-element model in EFFlow.

The results of the analysis showed the conditions of the first scenario, offering a line

of 10,000 mg/l to the shore about 760 meters, while the line of 1000 mg/l is about

1200 meters, as shown in Figure (2.13). The results are very similar between the

second and fifth scenarios with the results of the first scenario, with a slight increase

in the progress of the line of 10,000 and the line of 1000 mg/l ranging from 10 to 15

meters only.

Figure (2.14) shows comparison the results of the 10000 mg/l line to the first, third

and fifth scenarios. The significant decrease in the value of the 10,000 mg/l line in

the third scenario compared to the other two scenarios is due to the lower

groundwater consumption assumed by the third scenario.

Figure (2.13): Results of the analysis under the conditions of the first scenario .

23

Figure (2.15) shows compares the results of the 10000 mg/l line to the second, fourth

and fifth scenarios. The significant decrease in the value of the 10,000 mg/l line in

the four scenario compared to the other two scenarios is due to the lower

groundwater consumption assumed by the four scenario.

Langevin & Zygnerski, (2013) used Southeastern Florida aquifer is which a high

permeability limestone aquifer, In addition to 5.5 million people consume water from

this aquifer, which leads to an acceleration of sea water intrusion due to sea level

Figure (2.14): Comparison between the results of the first, third and fifth scenarios.

Figure (2.15): Compares the results of the second, four and fifth scenarios.

24

Figure (2.16): Sensitivity results

rise, which made this aquifer suitable environment for this study. The study used a

numerical groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport model. During the

SEAWAT program , nine layers were defined with different hydraulic parameter. As

well as the used of four sea level rise rates " ave. annul 2005 level, with linear

increase 24, 48 and 88 cm/century" respectively, with the annual average of"

withdrawals, canal stages, rainfall and artificial recharge, and evapotranspiration

rates " conditions, for 2005 recorded data for this area.

The concentration of TDS Contour was used to determine the impact of sea water

intrusion into aquifer towards land.

Figure (2.16) show the sensitivity of the four sea level rise rates, with previous

hydrological conditions for 2005.

The analysis also showed that drinking water standards will exceed after 70 years ,

this period is reduced to 60, 55 and 48 years with sea level rising to 24 , 48 and 88

cm/century, respectively. On the other hand, intrusion rates are 15, 17, 18, and 21

m/century for the 0, 24, 48, and 88 cm/century sea-level rise rates, respectively.

In the end, the study showed that the main reason behind sea water intrusion into

Southeastern Florida aquifer is the large withdrawal of groundwater, in addition to

the contribution of sea level rise of 25 cm to an increase in intrusion by 1 km to the

land.

25

Mazi et al., 2013 based on the generalized analytical solution of Koussis with IPPC

projections for 2008 sea level rise estimated at 0.59 m and AMAP projections for

2011 sea level rise estimated at 1.6 m, to achieve unconfined aquifers responses to

sea intrusion. It also looked at the turning points (spatial, temporal and managerial ),

which made the state of stability highly responsive to small variables, producing

rapid intrusion of seawater into fresh water, leading to a complete invasion of

aquifers.

It considered here both flux Control ( i.e. outflow of fresh groundwater remains

constant) and head control ( i.e. hydraulic head remains constant ) conditions for the

coastal aquifer, By integrating the flow equation into the aquifer with the

implementation of the boundary conditions for the flux control conditions resulting

in a quadratic equation:

( r + K*ϩ(1+ϩ) ϕ) +2(q0 – K*ϩ(1+ϩ)* sinϕ *Hsea)*LT+K*ϩ(1+ϩ) sea= 0

……………….. (2.9)

and cubic equation when the implementation of the boundary conditions:

(1+ϩ)* ϕ* +(

+sinϕ*(2*h0-(1+ϩ)(2*Hsea –ϩ*L control*sinϕ))* -

(

+

control –(1+ϩ)* sea +2*sinϕ*L control (h0 +Hsea *ϩ*(1+ϩ))*LT +L control

*ϩ(1+ϩ)* sea =0 ………… (2.10)

for the location of the sea intrusion toe Lt .

where ϩ=(ρs-ρf)/ρf , ϕ(L control)=h(L control)+sinϕ L control is the hydraulic head.

Figure (2.17) show one of the results of these analyzes, it showed the change of the

interface toe position LT as function of the original coastline depth H sea for different

scenarios of sea-level rise.

26

Sefelnasr & Sherif, 2014 studied the Nile Delta aquifer by numerical simulation

using FEFLOW to determine the effect of sea water rise on sea water intrusion into

aquifer, considered groundwater consumption and decreasing as a result, In addition

to other considerations such as annual recharge of aquifer from rain would not

change under the conditions of climate change, the water levels in the Nile River is

fixed .

The GIS program was used to define 28 layers of aquifer and determine the hydraulic

conductivity, as well as calculated the recharge of the aquifer layers by a

precipitation of 150 mm/year along with the length of the Mediterranean coast, It is

rapidly declining southwards to touch 26mm/year in Cairo.

Six scenarios were assumed for this model, an increase in sea level rise of 0.50 m in

Scenarios I, II and III with groundwater consumption of "50%, 100%, 200%"

respectively of current consumption estimated at 2.3 billion (m3/year). While the rise

in sea level was 1 m in the other three scenarios, with the same consumption rate for

the first three scenarios respectively.

This study is used to clarify the results of the analysis on the map by Colored the

saltwater area 35000 PPM in red, it show the increase of this area under the six

scenarios, as shown in Figure (2.18).

Figure (2.17): The change of the interface toe position LT for different scenarios of

sea-level rise.

27

The increase in saline areas and volumes is evident in contrast to the decrease in

freshwater area and volume under the six scenarios. The increase/decrease in areas

are estimated at 15% to 32% under the condition of sea level rise of 0.5-1.0 m,

respectively. While in volume it is around 15% when maintaining current

consumption.

Gejam et al., 2016 made a study of the western aquifer of Libya on the

Mediterranean Sea. The results of this study indicated that the rise of the level of the

Mediterranean "5.9 mm / year" led to an increase of sea water intrusion by 94 meters

due to rise in the level of the sea.

In Palestine, (Sarsak, 2011) referred to the scenario of the impact of sea level rise on

sea water intrusion in the northern Gaza Strip, through a numerical simulation using

Figures (2.18): Results for the six scenarios in order.

28

the Seawat program, at sea level rise of 5.9 mm/year, with no consideration to

climate change through recharge or pumping rates.

The results of simulated this scenario during the simulation period from 2005 to 2035

indicated that seawater intrusion into the land is 4,300 meters in 2035. The results

were compared between the sea level rise scenario and the other scenarios. An

increase in seawater intrusion into the aquifer was observed by 100 meters.

Figure (2.19) show the sea water intrusion into the aquifer of north Gaza during the

period 2005 to 2035.

2.2.3 Concluding Remarks

The results of previous studies revealed a contribution to the rise of the sea level led

to increase the sea water intrusion into the aquifer. This contribution was tens of

meters in some coastal aquifers to thousands of meters in some other aquifers

according to the different hydrological characteristics, in addition to the difference in

pumping rate.

In this research used a numerical approaches is used to evaluate the impact of

sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the Gaza strip aquifer through Seawat

model. It is noteworthy that the current research has studied all Gaza Strip aquifer,

where all the seven layers of the aquifer is used in the approach to give more reliable

results. In additional chloride concentration was used as an indicator of sea water

intrusion into the aquifer.

Figure (2.19): Results of the scenario analysis on the north Gaza aquifer

TD

S

29

Chapter three

Study Area : Gaza Strip

30

Chapter 3: Study Area: Gaza Strip

3.1 Geography:

Gaza Strip is an elongated zone located at southeastern coast of Palestine with

coordination of Latitude N 31° 26' 25" and Longitude E 34° 23' 34". The area is

bounded by Egypt in the south, the Mediterranean in the west and the 1948 cease-fire

line in the north and east. The length of the Gaza strip is approximately 40 km long

and the width varies from 8 km in the north to 14 km in the south. Gaza Strip is

divided geographically into five governorates: Northern, Gaza, Middle, Khan Yunes,

and Rafah (Matar, 2018), as shown in Figure (3.1).

Figure (3.1): Location map of Gaza Strip, Palestine (Wikipedia, 2018).

3.2 Geology:

The geological formation of the region dates back to the3rd

and 4th

geological

periods. It includes both the Kurkar and the reddish rocks within the Pleistocene age.

In the third geological age, mud and clay sediments were formed at a depth of 1200

meters near the shore and limestone and cretaceous deposits at a depth of 2000 m,

31

Whereas in the fourth geological age, the continental kurkar and the marine kurkar

are formed (Albana, 2011). Within the Gaza Strip, the thickness of the Kurkar Group

increases from east to west, and ranges from about 70 m near the Gaza border to

approximately 200 m near the coast (Ajjur, 2012).

3.3 Topography:

The surface of Gaza Strip is generally characterized by a flat surface, with a series of

hills extending the eastern part of the Gaza Strip, in addition to three valleys are

Wadi Gaza , Wadi Salqa and Wadi Beit Hanoun (Baalousha, 2005).

The surface level varies between sea level in some areas and 110 meters above

sea level in the east, as shown in Figure (3.2).

Figure (3.2): Topography of Gaza Strip (Zomlot, 2015)

Table (A-1) in Appendix (I) contains details of the different levels of the Gaza Strip

per meter.

32

3.4 Aquifer:

The aquifer located under the Gaza Strip is the only source of fresh water in the Gaza

Strip. It is nourished by rainfall on the Gaza Strip and parts of the Negev and

Hebron Mountains, as shown in Figure (3.3).

Figure (3.3): Flow into Gaza Strip aquifer (UNEP, 2002).

The aquifer is composed of sand and sandstone, interspersed with layers of clay and

clay sand, a four-tiered aquifer is formed near the coast, layer " A" is unconfined,

and three layers " B1", " B2 "and "C" layers are confined as they approach the coast,

as shown in Figure (3.4).

The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer ranges from 20 m/d to 75 m/d, Figure

(3.5) shows the different hydraulic conductivity values.

33

Figure (3.5) shows the different hydraulic conductivity values.

Figure (3.4): Typical hydrogeological cross section of Gaza Strip,(Ajjur, 2012).

34

The amount of water recharging the aquifer in the Gaza Strip is estimated at 80 Mm3

annually, compared with 130 Mm3 consumed from the aquifer (Gaza studies, 2017),

as shown in Figure (3.6). The depth of water in the aquifer ranges from a few

meters near the coast to 120 meters east, with the water level falling in most areas

of the Gaza Strip under the sea level (Ajjur, 2012).

Figure (3.6): Water balance of Gaza Strip (Sirhan&Koch, 2014).

3.5 Soil:

Table(3.1) and Figure (3.7) summarizes the main types of soil in the Gaza

Strip and their characteristics.

Table (3.1) The main types of soils available in the Gaza Strip.

Soil type Site Formation Water retention CaCO3

Sandy soil Sand dunes quartz low 5-8 %

Loess soil Between Gaza

City and Gaza

Valley

Clay and sand Medium 8-12%

Soil of riverine Low areas -- -- 15-20%

35

Silty clay soil The north

eastern part

Clay and silt Good --

Figure (3.7): Soil map of Gaza Strip

3.6 Rainfall:

The winter season " December to March " is the rainy season in the Gaza Strip.

The amount of rainfall on the Gaza Strip varies during the winter season between

an average of 450 mm per year in the Beit Lahia city of northern and 250 mm per

year in Rafah to the south of the Gaza Strip (PWA, 2012).

Figure (3.8) shows the average annual rainfall with the Gaza Strip through 12

monitoring stations distributed to the different governorates .

Table (A-2) in Appendix (I) indicated the coordinates of the monitoring stations.

36

Figure (3.8): Average normal rainfall in the Gaza Strip(PWA, 2012).

3.7 Population:

The Gaza Strip is one of the highest densely populated areas in the all world. The

population of the Gaza Strip was estimated at around two million by the mid of 2017

, with average density of about 5480 inhabitants/km2 (PCBS, 2017).

37

The governorate of Gaza for the highest population in all the governorates of the

Gaza Strip about 650000 people. Table (3.2) presents the population in Gaza

Governorates.

Table (3.2): Population in Gaza Governorates in 2016 (PCBS, 2017).

Governorate Population

North Governorate 377,126

Gaza Governorate 645,204

Alwasta Governorate 273,381

Khan Younis Governorate 351,934

Rafah Governorate 233,490

Total of Gaza Strip Governorates 1,881,135

3.8 Ground Water Level:

The water level in the Gaza Strip continues to decline as a result of increased

consumption of groundwater, which in 2014 was estimated at 90 l/c/d, In addition

to the scarcity of rainfall, which is considered the only supply for the aquifer.

According to the latest tests conducted in September of 2017 by the Palestinian

Water Authority (PWA), the groundwater level in the Gaza Strip has negative values

in general, except for a few areas.

The level of groundwater in the Beit Hanoun city is between 0.071 m and -1.3m, as

well as the Beit Lahia city is between 0.881 m and -3.2 m, which are the best values

among the governorates of the Gaza Strip. Average values were recorded between

-0.3 m and -6 m in Gaza and Middle governorates. While the worst values in the

Rafah city between -10 to -18 meters, as well as parts of the south of the Khan

Younis city between - 9 m to -11 m, as shown in Figure (3.9).

Table (A-3) in Appendix (I) showed the level of groundwater in the Gaza Strip in

details.

38

3.9 Water Quality:

Water quality is one of the challenges faced by water resource planners to provide

healthy water that meets population and agricultural needs. WHO sets standards for

this and local authorities.

Figure (3.9): Water Level the Gaza Strip in 2016 (PWA, 2016).

39

3.9.1 Chloride Concentration:

The standards of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the standards of the

Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) indicated that the concentration of chloride

in drinking water should not exceed 250 mg/l.

The chloride concentration test for municipal wells for the 2017 year conducted by

the (PWA) showed that more than 90% of wells have exceeded these standards, In

some wells chloride concentration exceeded 4000 mg/l, as shown in Figure (3.10). At

the governorates level, all the wells in the middle governorate exceed these

standards, while Gaza governorate has five wells and Rafah governorate has only

two wells that meet these standards.

The increase in chloride concentration is attributed to sea water intrusion into the

aquifers due to excessive consumption and other reasons.

3.9.2 Nitrate concentration:

The results of the test conducted by the Water Authority in 2017 showed that only

20 wells in the Gaza Strip agree with the WHO standards for nitrate concentrations

of 50 mg/l, while some wells exceeded this concentration tenfold, as shown in Figure

(3.10). In Gaza Governorate, only three out of 70 well-tested approved these

standards, while only one well in both the Rafah and Khan Younis governorates

succeeded in this test. The main sources on are domestic sewage effluent and

fertilizers. In contrast to salinity, groundwater flowing from east has relatively low

nitrate levels.

40

Figure (3.10): Chloride Concentration in the Gaza Strip in 2016 (PWA, 2016).

41

Figure (3.11): Nitrate Concentration in the Gaza Strip (PWA, 2016).

42

Chapter Four

Research Methodology

43

Chapter 4: Research Methodology

4.1 The Methodology:

This chapter presented the methodology used to determine the impact of sea level

rise on sea water intrusion into the Coastal Aquifer in the Gaza Strip. This was done

through a general understanding of the subject of sea level rise historically and

locally through the competent authorities in this field in general and specifically the

IPCC, In addition the general understanding of the subject of sea water intrusion into

the coastal aquifer through previous relevant research was also considered. This is

followed by determining the study area for research and study of the aquifer and its

characteristics by collected historical information about the study area such as

climate, soil and topography of the region and hydrological data was collected from

relevant institutions such as Palestinian Water Authority (PWA). Data collected for

the production of aquifer recharge maps were used using the GIS program and were

used to model the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the coastal

aquifer of the Gaza Strip through the Modflow program and Seawat model, as shown

in Figure (4.1).

44

Figure ( 4.1): Research Methodology

Result

45

4.2 Preparing data:

Understanding the climate history of the study area, determining the parameters of

the inputs, through the following:

1- Collected data from relevant institutions such as the Palestinian Water Authority

(PWA) and Coastal Municipalities Water Utility (CMWU), books and scientific

papers such as wells, groundwater level, sea level change and maps.

2- Reviewed the research and previous studies and the research of the Masters that

serve the subject of the research.

3- Data analyzed and construction of soil maps built up area, rainfall and

topography.

4- Prepared the recharge map to be used as a input to the Modflow program.

4.3 Recharge Model:

The GIS program is produced by an environmental organization called Esri, that is

used to manage and analyze spatial data. The GIS version 10.3 program was used to

study the recharge values of the Gaza aquifer in this research and to produced

recharge maps for the years 2010 to 2016 through the following steps:

1- The GIS program was set up, and the coordinates settings were adjusted.

2- Entered the different data:

- Soil map:

The soil map and soil types in the Gaza Strip were referred to during the previous

chapter "Study Area". Table (4.1) shows the filtration rate for the different soils

available in the Gaza Strip.

Table (4.1) shows the filtration rate for the different soils available in the Gaza Strip.

Classification Infiltration rate ( mm/hr.)

Loess soil 404.5

Dark brown / reddish brown 963.42

Sandy loess soil 258.66

Loessial sandy soil 71.48

Sandy loess soil over loess 337.6

Sandy regosol 1079

46

- Built up area:

Figure (4.2) shows built up area in the Gaza strip.

Figure (4.2): Built up area in Gaza strip .

- Rainfall: Rainfall data recorded in monitoring stations for 2010, 2013 and 2016,

then spatial analysis used to work interpolate using Spline to convert coordinates to

polygon. Rain maps for the years 2010, 2013, 2016 were discussed in the results

chapter.

3- Converted the data from Polygon to Raster data, the GIS program converted this

data from Polygon to Raster so that the program can deal with it, and worked

mathematical calculations.

4- Calculations of the production of the recharge map of the aquifer.

5- Produced of recharge maps for the aquifer for 2010 , 2013 and 2016. Recharge

maps for the years 2010,2013,2016 were discussed in the results chapter.

47

4.4 Modflow Model:

The Modflow program is the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow

model, It was developed at the beginning of the 1980s to simulate the flow of

groundwater through the aquifer.

The Visual Modflow version 4.6 program was used to study the hydrological state of

the coastal aquifer in the Gaza Strip, and used its results as input to the Seawat model

to find the impact of climate change on the sea water intrusion into the aquifer

through the three parts program:

The first section is inputs, which defined the aquifer and its parameters such as

conductivity, layers, recharge, boundary conditions, and water consumption.

Through the following steps:

1- Prepared the Modflow to simulate by defining the aquifer and its parameters.

2-The Grid was set up "Rows and Columns" and defined layers with conductivity.

3-Entered the observed head wells and pumping wells.

4-Entered recharge maps "2016 year" prepared in the GIS program.

The second section is Run, the model of the hydrological state of coastal aquifers in

the Gaza Strip until 2050 was carried out through the following equations:

The governing partial differential equation for a confined aquifer used in Modflow,

as Equation(4.1) (Psilovikos, 2006):

{Kxx

} +

{Kyy

} +

{Kzz

} + W = Ss

……… (4.1)

Where :

- Kxx , Kyy and Kzz are the values of hydraulic conductivity ( L/T) ,

- h is the potentiometric head (L) ,

-W is a volumetric flux per unit volume representing sources and/or sinks of water,

where negative values are extractions, and positive values are injections (T−1

) ,

- Ss is the specific storage of the porous material (L−1

) and

- t is time (T) .

48

The finite difference form of the partial differential in a discretized aquifer domain

(represented using rows, columns and layers) as Equation(4.2) (Psilovikos, 2006):

CRi,j-1/2,k * { hm I,j-1,k – h

mi,j,k } + CRi,j+1/2,k * { h

mi,j+1,k – h

mi,j,k } + CCi, -

1/2,k,j *{ hm I -1,k,j – h

mi,j,k } + CC +1/2,k,j * { h

mi +1,k,j – h

mi,j,k } + CVi,j,k-1/2 *

{ hm I,j,k-1 – h

mi,j,k } + CVi,j,k+1/2 * { h

mi,j,k+1 – h

mi,j,k } +Pi,j,k * h

mi,j,k + Qi,j,k

= SSi,j,k * { ∆ri ∆rj ∆rk } * ({ hm

i,j,k- hm-1

i,j,k}/{tm - t

m-1}) ………. (4.2)

Where :

- hm

i,j,k is the hydraulic head at cell i,j,k at time step m ,

- CV, CR and CC are the hydraulic conductance's, or branch conductance's between

node i,j,k and a neighboring node ,

- P i,j,k is the sum of coefficients of head from source and sink terms ,

- Q i,j,k is the sum of constants from source and sink terms, where Q I,j,k < 0.0 is flow

out of the groundwater system (such as pumping) and Qi,j,k > 0.0 is flow in (such as

injection),

- SSi,j,k is the specific storage ,

- ∆ri ∆rj ∆rk are the dimensions of cell i,j,k, which, when multiplied, represent the

volume of the cell; and

- tm

is the time at time step m .

The third section is Output, used to show the calibration head of the model during the

period from 2010 to 2016 to verify the efficiency of the model results.

4.5 Seawat Model:

Seawat is a generic MODFLOW/MT3DMS-based computer program designed to

simulate three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow coupled with multi-

species solute and heat transport (usgs.gov), In addition, the program was used to

simulate the migration of saline water into the aquifer and the intrusion of seawater

into the coastal aquifer.

Seawat model used to evaluate the sea water intrusion into the Gaza aquifer through

the following steps:

49

1- Entered the observed concentration wells and initial concentration.

2 - Imported data from the Modflow program .

3- Run simulations in Seawat program to 2050 with future scenarios .

Seawat is based on the concept of freshwater head, or equivalent freshwater head, in

a saline groundwater environment (sarsak, 2011).

The governing flow and transport equations in Seawat are as in Equations(4.3)

(sarsak, 2011):

{ ρ * K f (

+

) } = ρ * S f

+ ϴ

+ δ

– ρs*q s ……(4.3)

where:

Xi : ith

orthogonal coordinate

K f : equivalent freshwater hydraulic conductivity (L/T)

S f : equivalent freshwater specific storage (1/L)

H f : equivalent freshwater head (L)

T : time (T)

θ : effective porosity (dimensionless)

ρ : density of freshwater [M/L3]

ρs : density of sources and sinks [M/L3]

q s : volumetric flow rate of sources and sinks per unit volume of aquifer (1/T)

The transport Equation (4.4) (sarsak, 2011) is:

=

{ ϴ Di

} -

{ ϴvic

K ) + qs Cs

K + ∑ Rn ..………(4.4)

where:

Ck : dissolved concentration of species k (M/L

3).

Ck

s : concentration of the source or sink for species k (M/L3)

Di : the dispersion coefficient (L2/T)

qs : the volumetric flux of a source or sink (T-1

)

Rn : the chemical reaction term (ML3/ T)

50

4- Showed the calibration of concentration the model during the period from 2010 to

2016 to verify the efficiency of the model results.

5- Showed the results of simulating " effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion

into the Gaza aquifer " .

4.6 Prediction of future scenarios:

This research examined the effect of sea level rise on sea water intrusion into the

aquifer, two scenarios were imposed during the simulation period until 2050.

The first scenario over a period of 34 years extends from 2016 to 2050, under sea

level rise at 0.0 m and without any change in pumping from the aquifer. The

population growth in the Gaza Strip is kept constant and it assumed that new

resources of water will be supplied beyond the aquifer which will sought to reduce

the deterioration of the aquifer. An examples of these water resources are the

establishment of desalination plants and the use of treated water for agriculture.

The second scenario over a period of 34 years extends from 2016 to 2050, under sea

level rise at 0.37 m and without any change in pumping from the aquifer.

51

Chapter Five

Results and Discussions

52

Chapter 5: Results and Discussions

The research outputs are divided into two parts. The first part is to estimate recharge

amounts for the aquifer for the years 2010, 2013 and 2016 through GIS v 10.3

program. The second part uses the outputs of the first part with other variables to

evaluate the effect of sea level rise on the seawater intrusion into the aquifer in the

Gaza Strip through the use of Modflow v 4.6 program and Seawat model.

5.1 Recharge Model:

Figures (5.1), (5.2) and (5.3) show the results of the recharge model using GIS

software for years 2010, 2013 and 2016, respectively. The recharge of aquifer was

approximately 40% of the rainfall.

Figure (5.1) show, a decrease in rainfall between 30% to 52% over the average

annual rainfall, resulting in a decrease in the amount of water reaching the aquifer.

Figure (5.1.a): Rainfall in 2010 Figure (5.1.b): Recharge in 2010

Figure (5.2) shows an increase in rainfall between 32% to 53% over the average

annual rainfall, resulting in an increase in the amount of water reaching the aquifer.

Areas with low recharge rates indicate either the existence of clay layers in this area

or built-up areas.

53

Figure (5.2.a): Rainfall in 2013 Figure (5.2.b): Recharge in 2013

Figure (5.3) shows an increase in precipitation during 2016, approximately 100%

higher than the average rainfall in some areas. For example, the Rafah city recorded

472 mm / year, and most areas exceeded 500 mm / year.

Figure (5.3.a): Rainfall in 2016 Figure (5.3.b): Recharge in 2016

54

5.2 Groundwater Flow and Seawat Modeling:

After computing the values of recharge using GIS Model, these values were used as

input to the groundwater flow model Visual Modflow 4.6 software and Seawat

model. The outputs of the Seawat model will provide a good indicator of the impact

of climate change "sea level rise" on the sea water intrusion into the coastal aquifer

of the Gaza Strip.

5.2.1 Model setting up:

The groundwater model domain in the Gaza Strip is shown in Figure (5.4). The

model domain is grid of 80 column by 150 row .

Figure (5.4): The grid model

55

The model boundaries (west, East, North and South) can be described as

follows :

- West : Constant head boundary during the year, increased linearly from 0.20 m in

2016 to 0.37 m in 2050, about 5 mm / year according to the IPCC projections for the

rise of the Mediterranean sea level during the current century.

- East : Variable head boundary ,The head values in 2016 between from -5 to5 m.

- North : No-flow boundary.

- South: No-flow boundary.

Figure (5.5) shows boundary conditions during 2016 with the beginning of the

model.

Figure (5.5): The boundaries head in 2016.

56

5.2.2 Pumping wells:

The number of wells in the Gaza Strip is estimated as 1928 wells" has full data" in

2016, including 234 municipal wells, while the rest are wells for agricultural use.

The average pumping rate is 120 MCM, and distributed in the Gaza Strip as shown

in Figure(5.6).

Figure (5.6): Distribution of pumping wells in Gaza strip

57

5.2.3 Head Observation wells:

The number of head observation wells in the model are 61 in 2016, as shown in

Figure (5.7).

From Figure (5.7) it can be seen that the head observation wells are well distributed

in Gaza strip area .

Figure (5.7): Distribution of head observation wells in Gaza strip.

58

5.2.4 Concentration Observation wells:

The number of concentration observation wells in the model are 102 in 2016. These

wells were selected from the pumping wells where chloride concentration is

monitored better and this data is more confident. These wells were carefully chosen

to provide the best distribution in the Gaza Strip area, as shown in Figure (5.8).

Figure (5.8): Distribution of concentration observation wells in Gaza strip.

From Figure (5.8) it can be seen that the concentration observation wells are well

distributed in Gaza strip area , with the exception of the eastern area of Khan Younis

and Rafah, due to the lack of observation wells in the area.

59

5.2.5 Layers and Properties:

Base on the geological description of Gaza strip aquifer shown in chapter three "

study area ". The coastal aquifer in the Gaza strip is composed of seven layers,

including three layers of clay, which have been introduced into the Modflow

program. Figures (5.9.a) and (5.9.b) show two sections of these layers.

Figure (5.9.a): A cross-section of the layers in North of Gaza strip (section A-A

in Figure (5.8)) .

Figure (5.9.b) : A cross-section of the layers in South of Gaza strip (section B-B

in Figure(5.8)) .

Based on Figure (3.5) in the geological description of Gaza strip aquifer shown in

chapter three " study area ". divided the Gaza Strip to five Zones depending on the

governorates, additional to clay layer is zone one, zone two is north of Gaza Strip

governorate, zone three is Gaza governorate, zone four is Middle governorate, zone

five is Khanyunis governorate and zone six is Rafah governorate, as shown in Figure

(5.10). The hydraulics conductivity values for each zone were calculated by average

of the hydraulics conductivity values of each zone, as shown in Table (5.1).

60

Table (5.1): The hydraulic conductivity in Gaza strip.

Zone *K x (m/d)

*K y (m/d)

*K z (m/d)

1 0.2+ 0.2 0.02

2 38.6 38.6 3.86

3 61.2 61.2 6.12

4 58.75 58.75 5.875

5 53.4 53.4 5.34

6 45 45 4.5

- * Conductivity of hydraulic direction x " K x"

- * Conductivity of hydraulic direction y " K y"

- * Conductivity of hydraulic direction z " K z "

+ (Aish, 2010)

Figure (5.10): The hydraulic conductivity zones in the model

61

Table (5.2): shown the other properties for layers (Aish, 2010).

Effective porosity Total porosity Specific storage Specific yield

Clay layer 0.15 0.45 3.1E-6 m-1

0.1

Other layers 0.25 0.30 2.2E-6 m-1

0.24

5.2.6 Boundary Conditions for Seawat:

The boundary conditions for transport model are classified as follows :

- Western boundary : Constant concentration " CL " is 20,000 mg/l

- Eastern boundary: is variable concentration boundary

- Recharge concentration was neglected and considered 0 mg/l since the main scope

of the work concentrates on concentration from seawater .

5.2.7 Models calibration:

The calibration of the model is the criteria that demonstrate accuracy in the flow

model as well as the seawat model. The calibration process is performed by

comparing the flow and concentration calculated with observed data.

The models calibrated from 1 January 2010 as initial value to 31 December 2016.

The calibration results presented to verify model confidence for 2013 and 2016.

Figure (5.11.a) shows that the correlation coefficient for flow model calibration in

2013 is 0.905, and Figure (5.11.b) shows that the correlation coefficient is 0.913 for

seawat model calibration.

62

Figure (5.11.a): Flow model calibration in 2013

Figure (5.11.b) :Seawat model calibration in 2013

63

Figure (5.12.a) shows that the correlation coefficient for flow model calibration

in 2013 is 0.911, and Figure (5.12.b) shows that the correlation coefficient is

0.901 for seawat model calibration.

Figure (5.12.a): Flow model calibration in 2016

64

Figure (5.12.b): Seawat model calibration in 2016 .

Figures of calibration and Figures that showed the distribution of observed wells in

the Gaza Strip show accuracy in the results of flow model and the seawat model for

the prediction period.

5.3 Prediction of sea level rise Impacts:

After calibration of the model using observation wells as shown in the previous

section, the model is used for the future prediction phase to determine sea water

intrusion dimension into aquifers due to climate change is "sea level rise".

5.3.1 First Scenario: without the effect sea level rise.

The 2016 data were used as initial values to run the model for 34 years with 0.0 m

mean sea level. The results were extracted for every five years for each period, from

2022, 2027, 2032, 2037, 2042, 2047 to 2050.

Figures (5.13.a) and (5.13.b) show the location of the seawater intrusion into the

aquifers, specifically on the seventh layer from 2022 to 2050.

65

Figure (5.13.a): Seawater intrusion in layer seven from 2022 to 2032

Figures (5.13.a) and (5.13.b) show the remarkable progress of seawater intrusion into

the aquifer, where the 18000 mg / l line of chloride concentration reaches a distance

of approximately 2500 meters from the shore (in land) by the beginning of 2030 and

3800 meters by 2050, while the 12,000 mg / l line is expected to reach to 4300

meters at the end of the modeling period (2050) in Rafah city.

The area between the northern Gaza governorate and Gaza governorate and Rafah

city are the most affected by seawater intrusion along the Gaza Strip.

66

Figure (5.13.b) : Seawater intrusion in layer seven from 2037 to 2050

Figures (5.14) show to a cross section of aquifer in the area between the northern

Gaza governorate and Gaza governorate, showing a distance of 18000 mg / L line of

chloride concentration from shore for the years 2022 to 2050.

67

Figure (5.14): A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from

2022 to 2050 in North of Gaza strip ( section A-A).

68

5.3.2 Second Scenario: with the effect of sea level rise.

Under the same conditions as the first scenario and 2016 values but with sea level

rise of 0.37 cm. Figures (5.16.a) and (5.16.b) show the modeling results for the

second scenario for the years 2022 to 2050.

Figures (5.15.a) and (5.15.b) show a slight increase in the results of sea water

intrusion into aquifer compared with the results of the first scenario.

Figure (5.15.a): Seawater intrusion in layer seven from 2022 to 2032

69

Figure (5.15.b): Seawater intrusion in layer seven by modflow from 2037 to 2050

Figures (5.16) show a cross section of aquifer in the area between the northern Gaza

governorate and Gaza governorate, showing a distance of 18000 mg/L line of

chloride concentration from shore (in land) for the years 2022 to 2050.

70

Figure (5.16): A cross section show the seawater intrusion in all layers from 2022 to

2050 in North of Gaza strip (section X-X).

71

5.4 Comparison between the two scenarios:

Tables (5.3) and (5.4) show a comparison between the two previous scenarios

through the location of the 18000 mg / L chloride line from the shore line at the area

of the northern Gaza governorate with Gaza governorate (Jabalia) and in the south

area (Rafah) respectively.

Table (5.3): Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 18000 mg/l in

Jabalia.

year First Scenario(m) Second Scenario(m) Difference(m)

2022 841 848 7

2027 1095 1116 21

2032 1342 1356 14

2037 1625 1660 35

2042 1850 1865 15

2047 2048 2083 35

2050 2224 2245 21

Table (5.4): Comparison between the two scenarios for the location of 18000mg/l in

Rafah .

year First Scenario(m) Second Scenario(m) Difference(m)

2022 1447 1461 14

2027 2188 2241 53

2032 2788 2859 71

2037 3264 3282 18

2042 3564 3593 29

2047 3755 3798 43

2050 3811 3834 23

The results of the comparison show that the contribution of sea level rise by

increasing sea water intrusion into the aquifer by tens of meters (approximately 30 to

70 meters).

72

5.5 Comparison of current research with other researchers:

The research results are consistent with many similar research results that study

coastal aquifers with the Mediterranean Sea using analytical approach, including:

Sarsak, 2011 made a model for simulating the sea water intrusion into the aquifer of

northern Gaza until 2035 by studying the effect of sea level rise in one of the

scenarios. The results of this scenario showed an increase in sea-water intrusion into

the aquifer by 100 meters due to the effect of sea level rise.

Gejam et al., 2016 made a study of the western aquifer of Libya on the

Mediterranean Sea. The results of this study indicated that the rise of the level of the

Mediterranean "59 mm / year" led to an increase of sea water intrusion by 94 meters

due to rise in the level of the sea.

While the results of the current research showed different results with the study of

the aquifers of the Nile Delta carried out by Abd-Elhamid et al., 2016.

This study simulated the effect of the rise of the Mediterranean sea on the sea water

intrusion into the aquifer in the Nile Delta. The results indicated that the rise of the

Mediterranean level by 100 cm will lead to additional interference of sea water to the

aquifer in the Nile Delta by 10 km. This result is somehow exaggerated the effect of

sea level rise into a sea water intrusion, In addition the result of this research is not

compatible with other research such as Gejam et al., 2016, Sarsak, 2011and Werner

& Simmons, 2009.

The results of this study on coastal aquifer in the Gaza Strip and the results of similar

studies in coastal aquifers on the Mediterranean Sea indicated that the contribution of

sea level rise in increasing sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers is a minor

contribution.

73

Chapter Six

Conclusions and

Recommendations

74

Chapter 6: Conclusions and Recommendations 6.1 Conclusion: 1- The recharge of the aquifer in the Gaza Strip is estimated at 40% of the total

annual rainfall.

2- The problem of salinization of water in the aquifer is generally clear in the Gaza

Strip, especially in the Rafah governorate.

3- The rise of the sea level is one of the factors that help increase the sea water

intrusion into the aquifer in Gaza strip.

4- Sea level rise is not the most effective factor in the sea water intrusion into the

aquifer in Gaza Strip. A rise of 0.37 m in sea level resulted in an increase of sea

water intrusion to the aquifer by 70 meters compared to the non-rise of sea level.

5- The results showed that the greatest impact of sea water intrusion into the aquifer

in Gaza Strip in the Rafah Governorate.

6- More than half of the aquifer in Gaza Strip contains chloride concentration of

more than 2000 mg/l by 2037 and the rate of chloride concentration increases as the

years progress.

7- The majority of the areas in the Gaza Strip contain a concentration of chlorine that

is higher than the chlorine specified drinking water standard which is 250 mg/l.

6.2 Recommendations: 1- Provide an integrated database to monitor the chloride concentration and water

level in the Gaza Strip. Researchers can easily access them without disturbance,

increase their reliability by adding new wells and remove some wells to reduce the

redundancy of information.

2- Provide wells to monitor chloride concentration and water level in the eastern

border area of Khanyunis where no wells are available.

3- Further studies are needed to update built up area map in the Gaza Strip to

improve the recharge outputs of the aquifer.

75

4- Further studies are needed to clarify the impact of other climate change factors on

the aquifer in the Gaza Strip.

5- Further studies are needed to update the hydraulic conductivity values in detail for

each Gaza Strip.

6- Wells which are located in the area has chloride concentration increased more than

2000mg/l must stop pumping to reduce the deterioration in these area and prevent the

expansion of the salinity phenomenon.

7- The use of new sources of water to reduce the dependence on groundwater to stop

the deterioration of aquifer such as desalination, wastewater treatment for

agricultural uses and the importation of water from external sources.

76

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81

Appendix I

82

Appendix I

Table (A-1) levels surface of the Gaza Strip

X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.

75968.4 82086.8 0 76716.2 80609.6 30.48 78290.7 84239.9 0

76428 82491 0 77605.5 83563.4 0 77716.6 84476.8 -4.68

75850.5 82648.4 -3.54 77087.3 83716.3 -4.37 78504.8 83752 7.26

75454 82322.2 -4.54 77755.7 83010.9 7.01 77179.6 85095.6 -8.23

75593.1 81756.8 0 76586.8 84046.8 -6.95 78681.5 83248.3 18.88

76095.2 81565.5 6.47 77873.1 82468.2 15.94 78733.9 82716.2 30.91

76463.1 81965 5.19 75877.6 84259 -9 76391.4 85606.8 -11.31

76803.3 82820.9 0 77828.1 81915.6 25.11 79057.3 82343 44.75

76295 83019.1 -3.28 77574.3 81356.5 30.83 78722.7 81760.5 46.64

76942.5 82258.5 5.759 75013.1 84310.7 -11.27 75451.5 85915.7 -14.21

75774.3 83175.3 -6.18 75506.3 80290.1 23.08 78493 81174.2 46.97

75190.9 83010.8 -7 77311 80795.3 30.94 78243 80605 35.84

75062.2 81940.6 -7.56 75908.7 79853.4 30.51 75020.4 79355.2 25.98

75217.9 81426.9 0 76494.1 80028.5 33.2 77995.9 80036.2 31.97

75737.2 81220.6 8.05 77073.6 80219.8 32.15 75091.6 78780.8 30.72

76311.8 80999.5 20.81 77948.1 83901.7 0 75579.1 78586.7 33.44

76533.4 81462.9 13.88 77230 84263.3 -5.33 76054.4 78931.6 31.53

76856.3 81732.1 13.07 78137.5 83370.9 7.53 76631 79134 33.33

77262.9 83225.1 0 78267.4 82822.4 18.17 77194.1 79277.6 26.77

76695.5 83396.8 -3.94 76509.2 84745 -8.74 77766.5 79468.1 26.97

77338.7 82678.7 5.33 78395 82207.9 33.17 78710.4 84654.3 0

76111.4 83627.3 -6.59 75629 85006 -11.59 78033.4 84834.3 -5.04

77449.8 82210.2 12.95 78166.3 81572 39.62 78794.3 84155.8 0

77281.8 81751.6 18.76 77910.3 80988 35.6 79097.8 83724.1 15.95

75408.2 83683.4 -8.61 75412.8 79736.2 26.97 77173.9 85949.8 -10.21

75314.9 80863.3 10.71 77658.1 80415 32.95 77770.1 85403.5 -7.34

75813.8 80743.8 19.79 75607.6 79234.7 29.46 79201.4 83048.1 34.61

76956.8 81194.5 24.88 76240.6 79473.2 32.77 76478.1 86695.9 -14.22

76140.1 80402.9 29.23 76842.6 79658.5 29.73 79547.7 82652.1 49.93

79234 81826.8 51.1 77420.3 79841.6 29.46 79637.8 82152 55.84

79061 81317.2 48.58 79260.9 84408.3 6.08 78868.8 79761 41.71

75300 86965.7 -17.4 79654.9 84030.2 18.19 78650.7 79205 36.59

78814 80763.5 43.15 79543.3 83509.9 29.62 75232.1 77497 36.58

78563 80202.3 37.67 78037.6 85933.7 -8.09 75717.7 77379 39.99

78325 79633.6 32.35 77575.7 86655.4 -10.84 76121.2 77805 38.61

75163 78145.4 33.54 79801.1 83106.2 46.34 76533.4 78202 37.02

75632 77962 35.99 76328.1 87904.1 -17.16 76996.7 78084 39.05

76034 78352.4 35.39 77356.6 87596.7 -13.98 77380.5 78441 33.74

76443 78669.5 33.06 80084.9 82596.8 57.16 77892.8 78479 34.83

76964 78691.7 33.99 79657.9 81501.7 56.58 78449.2 78680 38.74

77555 78919.9 26.6 80121.1 81968.3 60.87 79472.7 85406 0

78104 79065 30.28 79373.7 80892.8 51.43 78789.3 85636 -4.63

83

X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.

79053 84992.5 0 75092.2 88162.9 -20.03 79549.2 84908 5.41

78429 85237.4 -4.49 79113.2 80323.6 45.96 79873.9 84572 14.11

80218 84182.6 27.39 75506 76295.2 49.36 81777.3 84292.8 50.48

80029 83647.3 37.89 76033.4 76323.5 53.93 80246.9 86926.9 -4.01

78551 86387.7 -8.01 76272.2 76795.4 49.74 80529.3 87319 -4.38

78256 87188.7 -10.45 76725.2 77063.6 49.97 81877.2 82922.1 59.12

80306 83202.8 51.06 77255.5 77064.7 53.73 81831.3 83412.2 58.04

76071 89112.4 -19.99 77598.4 77495.2 52.27 79470.3 92406.9 -19.82

77487 88895.9 -17.04 78100.6 77415.3 68.8 80732.2 92316.7 -17.09

78290 88117.1 -12.75 78457.2 77782.4 67.32 80963.2 91449.3 -14.22

80578 82317.2 60.83 78963 77705.9 66.8 80493 90581 -12.78

80562 82815.5 57.03 80157.9 86083.4 0 80950.6 89946.1 -10.11

79891 80927.2 56.86 80310.1 85613.8 7.36 80734 89252.4 -8.75

80199 81404 60.58 80752.3 85307.4 19.38 80585.5 88238.6 -6.68

80638 81775.8 61.39 81016.1 84804.9 35.19 80919.4 88609.8 -6.77

79634 80385.8 52.5 81054.9 83751.9 51.43 80871.6 87646.2 -4.05

79394 79831.8 50.63 81269.9 84289.6 47.2 81948.7 82357.1 59.09

79175 79283.5 48.63 79864.1 86550.8 -4.5 82046.8 81818.6 59.85

78983 78728.9 46.2 79619.5 87041.8 -7.09 80672 79494.9 62.54

75316 76868.3 41.47 79808.3 87516.8 -7.71 80897.9 79965.5 62.26

75817 76828.9 46.34 81365 83188.8 57.26 81152.7 80435.5 61.55

76215 77273 44.2 78337.5 91308.8 -20 81646.5 80445.3 61.56

76613 77647.9 42.69 79670.3 91121.8 -16 81900.1 80889.3 61.15

77098 77549.5 46.84 79765.5 89819.3 -13.4 82174.9 81312.8 60.95

77490 77987.6 42.62 79927.1 88818.3 -10.41 80565.8 78967.4 63.53

77956 77898.9 53.74 80122.4 87994 -8.3 80273.4 78116.3 62.48

78300 78222.4 49.61 81472.1 82548.1 58.37 80640.3 78426.8 63.37

78774 78227 50.61 81547.5 81947.5 59.63 79550 76957.7 61.49

79815 85745.2 0 80393 79921.5 60.34 79962.9 77241.9 60.04

79203 85886.1 -3.53 80648.3 80410.5 59.64 80392.7 77514.2 60.16

80060 85171.4 10.41 80918.4 80894.9 59.37 75163.5 75114 53.04

80444 84747.7 25.18 81401.8 80933.5 60.74 75697.1 75169.6 58.44

80754 84269 38.94 81681.4 81399.4 59.97 76220.3 75319.9 61.47

80542 83732.3 45.12 80192.9 79377.6 62.31 76724.9 75501.1 61.69

79085 86790.5 -7.44 80086 78768.4 63.78 76855.3 76041.7 61.15

79441 86237.1 -5.2 79801.6 78336.8 60.81 77335.2 76170 60.79

79014 87505.4 -9.41 79459.6 77526.2 62.39 77821.5 76270.4 61.74

80834 83253.4 53.94 79863.8 77812.3 59.75 77923.5 76670.1 61.66

77204 90210.6 -20 75255.9 75706.4 51.74 78298.2 76461.6 63.97

78548 90050 -17.04 75828 75778.7 57.19 78693.7 76775.6 69.61

78842 89011.9 -13.45 76357.2 75896.6 60.32 79138 76636.3 62.59

79286 88207.4 -10.49 76546.9 76446.8 55.85 80843.1 86760 0

81072. 82117.1 60.63 77013.4 76579.4 56.84 81012.8 86264.5 5.74

81010. 82707.7 58.18 77490.1 76632.7 58.85 81476.3 86162.2 12.96

84

X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.

80137 80400.6 57.38 77755.9 77053 61.19 81831.3 85801.7 28.01

80398 80874.3 59.39 78245.9 76952.3 70.9 81959.1 85244.8 46.38

80668 81288.3 60.10 78600.8 77295.6 73.9 82025.7 84753.2 54.44

81148 81485.1 59.66 79076.9 77156.3 69.36 82061.1 83858.8 52.79

79897 79873.3 56.35 80500.5 86421.7 0 82294.7 84389.2 52.31

79701 79310.6 57.74 80691.3 85894.1 6.25 81185.7 87098.2 0

79499 78780.5 56.2 81208.9 85753.6 15.25 82327.6 83339.1 57.45

79322 78165.4 53.87 81392.1 85293.1 31.53 82356.9 82732.2 59.21

81554.7 84788.5 47.68 80526.6 93430.9 -19.67

81790 93302 -16.84 78729 76216 62.23 78098.9 75500 60.06

82028 92280 -13.84 79202.1 76192.9 59.58 78589.4 75668 59.38

81882 91395 -11.59 81352.1 86625.8 5.8 79064.4 75762 58.52

81393 90717 -11.25 81846.6 86424.8 15.33 82198.5 86793 14.76

81855 90140 -8.13 82298.6 86215.9 31.43 82681.2 86634 24.47

81654 89459 -6.93 82386.3 85636.5 44.22 82797.7 86074 41.17

81663 88780 -3.7 82501.9 85016.6 53.53 82908.3 85514 48.55

81250 87970 -3.57 82547.7 83928.6 50.99 83068.6 84995 48.33

81596 88279 -2.75 82778.5 84489.3 51.53 83053.5 84032 43.6

81504 87421 0 81701.8 86951.9 6.67 83297.1 84509 43.79

82453 82179 60.38 82843.7 83539.4 50.55 83173.5 83206 53.6

82549 81667 61.15 82772.7 83012.5 58.17 83354.9 83604 44.8

80983 79144 62.55 82864.6 82470.8 61.02 83270.3 82748 60.28

81174 79541 63.02 81659.5 94529.1 -19.79 83394.6 82202 63.52

81398 79993 62.31 82708.5 94251.4 -16.57 82639 95478 -19.89

81893 79997.1 61.41 83025.1 93178 -13.8 83649.9 95195 -16.58

82146 80423.8 60.83 83118.5 92230.3 -10.93 83642.7 94123 -14.63

82392 80836 60.93 82695 91502.8 -9.94 84285.4 93551 -11.09

82614 81215.2 60.95 82267.3 90785.1 -8.46 83885 92691 -10.05

81064 78696.2 61.4 82639.3 90210.5 -5.27 83981.5 91847 -7.08

80782 77833 60.33 82334.8 89747 -5.56 83454.4 91544 -8.02

81164 78179.4 60.62 82559.1 89300.4 -2.74 83354.1 91048 -7.11

79590 76429.7 59.38 82237 88963.5 -2.64 82974.7 90711 -6.04

80007 76678.3 59.67 82211.9 88141 0 83307.3 90083 -2.22

80447 76929.9 60.21 81893.7 87817.6 0 82963.7 89678 -3

80927 77192.4 59.63 82034.2 87314.4 5.84 83238.1 89183 0

75059 74043.4 57.95 82992.4 81913.6 62.61 82848.3 88787 0

75534. 74456 58.55 83037.1 81381.7 61.12 82530.1 88464 0

76126 74669.3 60.4 81461.8 79050.8 61.64 82380.4 87664 4.5

76634 74925.5 60.65 81647.3 79562 62.18 82716.8 88008 3.92

77120 75161.3 59.96 82153.5 79570.8 60.74 82538.8 87169 12.14

77215 75676.7 60.59 82397.6 79991.4 60.35 83562 81557 62.35

77707 75824.3 61.56 82657.4 80415.7 60.44 83392.8 80969 60.2

78214 75987.4 61.6 82898.8 80863.8 60.37 81949.2 78779 60.11

76325 73059.9 68.32 81560.7 78497.6 60.27 81919.3 79205 60.66

85

X Y Elev. X Y Elev. X Y Elev.

76772 73612 65.42 81276.7 77642.8 59.66 82404.5 79080 60.04

77170 74043.6 62.16 81684.8 77975.1 59.92 82634.9 79553 60.01

77494 74392.8 60.57 79541.9 75900.9 58.11 82903 79984 59.99

77928 74484.8 59.55 79982.8 76121.1 59 83165.5 80448 60

78011 75003.5 58.75 80424.4 76345.2 59.56 82062.1 78264 59.99

78486 75149.8 58.32 80860.5 76563.8 59.74 81760.6 77523 59.7

78968 75269.2 58.61 81306.1 76708.6 59.78 82228.5 77697 59.85

83039 87041.3 20.05 81487.1 77158.3 59.49 79460 75383 58.77

83175 86504.5 31.01 75639.1 73586.9 62.91 79908.7 75576 59.28

83310 85968.7 40.61 76154.8 73934.7 62.24 80381.7 75794 60.05

83449 85456.5 44.4 76635.2 74292.6 60.77 80832.5 75973 61.32

83606 84964.9 42.65 77073.6 74620.1 60.02 81272.1 76180 62.25

83561 84042.3 40.01 77537.4 74862.4 59.62 81733.3 76357 62.34

83804 84490.1 39.11 77608.3 75348 60.42 81779.2 76781 60.33

83626 83119.4 56.5 83774.2 82595.8 62.51 82039.5 77141 59.92

83851 83559.8 47.42 83896.2 82011.8 64.02 75597 72743 66.7

93374 79781 107.4 98078.7 111121.7 -12.16 91874.6 86302 93.71

94278 80959.3 102.4 97697.6 108624.4 -9.64 92399.6 86861 86.95

93629 81708.8 98.98 98015.3 109248.6 -10.02 92241.1 87463 80.19

94012 82837 96.12 97970.9 110065.7 -11.26 92846.7 87376 77.13

93911 83654.8 99.06 97214.1 105913.7 -3.77 93470.2 87682 67.86

108055 71898.4 139.3 97438.1 106357.3 -2.51 93718.7 88274 63.23

107085 74369.5 125.8 97720.3 106748.1 -3.78 93374.4 79781 107.43

106199 77042 110.9 98022.2 107168.8 -20.47 94279.9 80959 102.38

103459 77920.9 96.29 98319.3 107558.7 -8.93 93628.9 81708 98.98

101672 79419.5 80.29 98122.2 108073.7 -9.3 94012.3 82837 96.12

101010 81402.2 79.79 96726.2 103720.5 12.95 93911.7 83654 99.06

98642 80778.1 94.54 96820.4 104601.8 0 108055 71898 139.34

96614 80276.4 109.6 97055.7 104116.3 14.47 107085 74369 125.84

94851 79951.8 112.7 97124.9 104974 0 106199 77042 110.87

93099 84746.9 106.7 97408.1 105372.8 0 103459 77921 96.29

92980 85533.1 102.4 96547.4 102886.3 27.44 101672 79419 80.29

92764 86268.4 93.89 96894.1 103177.4 29.47 101010 81402 79.79

94203 84491.3 96.87 96006.5 100743.2 47.43 98641.9 80778 94.54

86

Table ( A-2) coordinates of the monitoring rainfall stations in the Gaza stripe

X_ Coord. Y_ Coord. Station Name

106420.00 105740.00 Beit-Hanoun

99750.00 108280.00 Beit-Lahia

99850.00 105100.00 Jabalia

97474.787 105428.24 Shati

97140.00 103300.00 Gaza-City

100500.00 101700.00 Tuffah

95380.00 98000.00 Gaza-South

91950.00 94080.00 Nusseirat

88550.00 91600.00 D-Balah

84240.00 83880.00 Khanyunis

83700.00 76350.00 Khuzaa

79060.00 75940.00 Rafah

Table (A-3) Ground Water Levels of the Gaza Strip in Sep. 2016 and average

PWA Number X Y Sep.2016 Average

Piezo. 2A 98330.20 105799.52 -1.09 -1.09

Piezo. 2B 98330.31 105799.51 -0.15 -0.15

Piezo. 2C 98330.28 105799.39 -0.40 -0.40

Piezo. 2D 98329.04 105798.25 -2.35 -2.35

Piezo. 2E 98329.09 105798.14 -2.37 -2.37

Piezo. 2F 98328.97 105798.09 -0.32 -0.32

Piezo. 3B 93621.20 95543.56 -1.16 -1.16

Piezo. 7 84109.12 77899.21 1.22 1.22

Piezo. 8A 95579.30 98225.61 -2.10 -2.10

Piezo. 22 A 86304.18 89542.85 -3.65 -3.65

Piezo. 22 B 86304.05 89542.79 -3.47 -3.47

Piezo. 23 88781.37 94162.56 0.58 0.58

Piezo. 24 99269.10 107327.30 -0.40 -0.40

Piezo. 26A 100549.15 108580.10 0.07 0.07

Piezo. 27 100870.10 107857.73 -1.80 -1.80

CAMP - 1A 103593.63 107122.60 -0.08 -0.08

CAMP - 1B 103596.30 107123.63 -0.01 -0.01

CAMP - 2 104577.63 105088.15 -0.93 -0.93

CAMP - 3B 98493.17 104400.13 -3.49 -3.49

CAMP - 4 97737.69 96579.02 -0.41 -0.41

CAMP - 7A 77355.65 79846.45 -8.84 -8.84

CAMP - 7B 77353.32 79846.22 -10.96 -10.96

CAMP - 8 86858.81 79606.83 9.71 9.71

CAMP - 9 81041.06 75604.56 -1.74 -1.74

CAMP - 13 92593.99 97657.87 -1.31 -1.31

CAMP - 14 93107.16 91999.06 -1.90 -1.90

A/31 102773.03 106051.71 -3.29 -3.29

A/47 103101.61 107074.25 -1.46 -1.46

87

PWA Number X Y Sep.2016 Average

A/53 102191.45 106917.00 -2.86 -2.86

A/64 103330.19 108096.81 -0.38 -0.38

A/107 101217.80 107481.63 -2.72 -2.72

C/30 106603.78 104470.95 1.07 1.07

C/48 106501.02 105842.88 0.88 0.88

C/126 104656.34 106017.71 -1.03 -1.03

E/12 101589.48 104297.70 -5.32 -5.32

E/32 99053.10 106224.66 -1.21 -1.21

E/45 99823.26 105405.00 -3.44 -3.44

E/116 100647.40 103487.42 -6.15 -6.15

F/21 94056.24 95964.45 -1.61 -1.61

F/43 94145.38 97593.92 -2.63 -2.63

F/68B 94998.25 96627.40 -2.10 -2.10

F/121 96218.37 95434.80 -0.25 -0.25

G/10 91189.24 96148.81 -1.30 -1.30

G/24B 92376.56 98908.88 -0.31 -0.31

G/26 91922.37 94938.84 -2.31 -2.31

H/5 89613.29 92965.11 -3.67 -3.67

H/11 90660.32 92785.02 -3.39 -3.39

J/52 87167.12 91271.46 -2.88 -2.88

J/68 85988.38 90847.67 -2.76 -2.76

J/103 88733.24 92930.49 -2.47 -2.47

L/18 85277.44 85821.60 -3.67 -3.67

L/47 82610.31 82589.34 -10.71 -10.71

L/66 82716.30 79914.50 -9.46 -9.46

L/88 81404.30 86783.97 0.08 0.08

L/94 83065.87 88152.41 -0.79 -0.79

M/10 85967.49 84740.36 -5.29 -5.29

N/7 89262.95 83502.88 0.18 0.18

N/12 88701.25 80356.73 12.57 12.57

P/34 78686.10 79538.76 -15.21 -15.21

P/48A 80066.99 79696.06 -18.11 -18.11

P/99 78681.04 78385.32 -11.18 -11.18

Q/2 103785.41 104376.19 -2.75 -2.75

Q/20 103759.84 102767.27 -1.56 -1.56

Q/31 103838.98 103994.35 -2.99 -2.99

R/38 102027.16 101782.87 -2.08 -2.08

R/84 99419.28 98987.91 7.15 7.15

R/108 illegal 93373.59 100136.32 -0.59 -0.59

R/133 96773.31 101064.29 -2.51 -2.51

R/210 94911.14 101914.04 -0.08 -0.08

R/216 101523.17 101059.39 -1.39 -1.39

R-I-69 96681.20 100107.03 -2.36 -2.36

S/11 94970.19 93542.62 0.09 0.09

S/15 94278.40 94366.74 -0.63 -0.63

88

PWA Number X Y Sep.2016 Average

S/28 93307.07 92855.66 -2.03 -2.03

S/50 91341.80 90667.80 -4.26 -4.26

T/1 89693.01 89349.75 -3.72 -3.72

T/6 88321.99 88116.69 -2.91 -2.91

T/15 87279.12 87444.48 -4.14 -4.14

T/22 88337.98 85643.53 -2.72 -2.72

New Deir 87960.00 91830.00 -3.32 -3.32

New Gaza 97156.00 104153.00 -5.16 -5.16

Table (A-4) Concentration " CL " of the Gaza Strip in. 2016.

ID X Y CL

1 104667.1 104337.1 400

2 105349.3 105095.3 480

3 106732.9 104859.9 328

4 106475.1 104891.2 285

5 105080 106350 880

6 105351.3 106857.4 333

7 103275 105385 155

8 103497.4 105126.1 180

9 102458.9 107032.7 240

10 101036.5 106827.4 1000

11 101715.9 107217.9 57

12 101076.8 105813.5 290

13 101286 105111.8 179

14 102066.9 104589.4 180

15 103273.9 104898.9 210

16 103034 105064.1 185

17 102530 106252.3 220

18 101733 107653 102

19 104780 106150.8 140

20 106151 104183 190

21 106802 104378 340

22 101379.3 105027.6 170

23 101080 105220 185

24 101686.4 106681.9 108

25 99977.47 105276.3 3500

26 101060 103930 300

27 102492 105453 72

28 101855 104838.2 160

29 102450 105136 130

30 101838 104844 400

31 103013.3 105334.3 515

32 101277.9 104582.7 238

89

ID X Y CL

33 102530 103915 240

34 103028 104016 260

35 102365 103029 350

36 101795 103409 250

37 101715.9 107217.9 111

38 98727.63 104412.2 5277

39 98867.35 104590 3358

40 99054.74 103668 668

41 99049.89 103698.8 609

42 99330.04 105052.3 4957

43 100155.9 104669.8 1740

44 100513.6 105179.3 1350

45 100834.7 105466 626

46 101439.9 105833.2 127

47 99165.91 103952.4 3763

48 101458 106192.9 100

49 101739.3 106462.4 98

50 100778.7 102527.2 576

51 100758.5 102581.4 633

52 100774.7 102456 890

53 100819.9 102495.9 844

54 100513.6 105179.3 275

55 100417.2 101298.9 956

56 100661.2 101542.9 865

57 101433.9 101970 682

58 99686.73 99202.55 1230

59 100004.2 100005.2 998

60 96542.39 102055.5 633

61 96237 101529.7 640

62 96237 101529.7 457

63 96713.48 101394.7 443

64 97563.92 103022.3 802

65 98327.24 103771.4 1033

66 97075.52 101805.6 511

67 97602.38 101510.2 504

68 98262.82 101598.4 533

69 97447.96 99138.65 1090

70 99462.72 103828.9 462

71 95042.2 98980.16 1072

72 93154.18 98410.77 1044

73 93300 97680 895

74 93639.7 98098.27 618

75 93879.91 98181.1 497

76 91705 95272 1264

90

ID X Y CL

77 91949 95875 1243

78 91311 94176 953

79 89463.17 92752.19 1583

80 89518.32 92949.76 1497

81 90643 93761 1200

82 91984.93 91891.39 874

83 93201.03 93513.57 1217

84 92675.57 91699.97 908

85 91838 92890 1009

86 91874.43 90945.88 611

87 88965.42 92490 2783

88 91200.34 90460.38 761

89 85916.64 89758.36 2915

90 86265.3 89777.16 3701

91 88156.61 90025.77 4943

92 88470 90410 1521

93 85536.4 89143 2662

94 84374.1 83181.5 889

95 82677.7 85082.6 613

96 82186.59 83276.65 2484

97 81831.6 82689.6 2347

98 83299.06 85383.59 822

99 83062.91 83461.37 1000

100 82848.9 83935.06 710

101 82869.57 83756.14 747

102 83038.24 84202.84 860

103 83116 85443 1383

104 81352.5 82504.8 306

105 82189.69 83279.19 1555

106 81695.85 83059.37 1435

107 81452 82711 1155

108 82424 81035 942

109 82550 81590 972

110 83496.91 81788.75 1039

111 81085.77 85734.44 209

112 82887.85 86149.89 284

113 82679.74 85914.45 284

114 83461.08 81975.28 729

115 84612.5 87291.4 239

116 85019.1 87403 217

117 84798.6 86922.3 809

118 84550 82700 1110

119 77926.76 78904.24 791

120 77598.02 79413.99 530

91

ID X Y CL

121 78772.7 79764.8 722

122 78320 80350 509

123 79368.62 79856.37 839

124 78600 80100 482

125 77736.61 80521.12 151