Structured  risk  assessment  based  on:  

◦ Sea-­level  rise  scenarios  (permanent  inundation)  ◦ Storm  surge  and  wave  run-­up  (temporary  inundation)  ◦ Using  all  mapping  data  from  Government  ◦ 1  m  spaced  contours  (processed  to  0.1m  spacing  +/-­  0.5m)  

With infrastructure

Base Image

2030 Spring High Tide

IPCC A1FI

2050 Spring High Tide

IPCC A1FI

2070 Spring High Tide

IPCC A1FI

2100 Spring High Tide

IPCC A1FI

2100 1-in-10 year storm

IPCC A1FI

Risk Levels 2070

Source: CZM, 2009: KAP II

 What  the  I-­‐Kiribati  Working  Group  said:  

◦ Capacity  building  opportunity  and  integration  of  skills,  knowledge  and  ideas    

◦ Risk  assessment  outcome  will  assist  in  decision  and  policy  making  in  Kiribati  

2100 Low

IPCC B2

2100 High

IPCC A1FI

 What  if  higher  sea-­‐level  rise  scenarios  eventuate?      

 How  can  we  help  visualize  impacts  and  assist  decision  making  

 Key  outcomes:  ◦ Building  cadre  of  technical  specialists  ◦ Shown  extreme  sensitivity  to  sea-­‐level  rise  ◦ Input  into  community  adaptation  decisions  ◦ SigniDicant  progress  on  assessing  one  part  of  the  risk  picture  ◦ Shown  data  constraints  &  outlined  next  technical  steps  

What will be my future?