The Dog Ate My Tracking

Practical Solutions for Valuing Mobile Traffic

Soren Ryherd

Working Planet

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Mobile Tracking Challenges

Image property of FollowYu, Inc.

Cross-Device Behavior

Tracking Breaks

• Javascript not supported on all phones

• Cookie persistence varies

• 90% of American adults have a cell phone

• 58% of American adults have a smartphone

• 32% of American adults own an e-reader

• 42% of American adults own a tablet computer

- 2014 Pew Charitable Trust Survey Data

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Attribution Models – FAIL

because touchpoints cross devices thus breaking connections

Predictive Models (CPA based bidding) – FAIL

because mobile actions may not be tied to marketing source

Media Mix Models – SUCCEED

may be more difficult to create because of quantitative assessment

and holistic view required

Traditional Modeling Breaks Down

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Media Mix Modeling

A Basic Media Mix Model

Mix Models attempt to predict unknown sales based on known marketing and advertising activity

U = C1*n1 + C2*n2 +C3*n3…+M

U = “Unknown” Monthly Sales

C = Known Channel Sales Activity

n = Channel Influence

M = Sales from additional sources (Word of Mouth, etc.)

Goal: Determine Cause and Effect Relationships Mathematically Based on Variability in Underlying Data

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Case Study

Even when doing things right…

• Responsive Design

• Tablet Optimized

• Clear Mobile Calls to Action

• Multi-Touchpoint Tracking

• Attribution Modeling

• Profit-Driven Optimization

• (No call-in sales to confuse channels)

Mobile is still a challenge:

Phone-based PPC provides 20% of traffic, but >3% of PPC sales

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Traditional Metrics Don’t Reveal Issue

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Unknown Link/SEO PPC Social

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Desktop Phone Tablet

Traffic

Orders

By Device By Channel

Data from Oct13 – Jan14

Traffic & Orders

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Combination of Device/Channel

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Unknown Link/SEO PPC Social

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Unknown Link/SEO PPC Social

Tablet

Phone

Desktop

Predicted Actual

Orders by Channel

Data from Oct13 – Jan14

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Forming Hypotheses

Yes, it appears there is a problem in attributing mobile value

Identifying Signs:

• Over 76% of phone sales are not tied to any marketing source

• Phone sales tied to marketing source only occur in single session

• “Unknown” sales bucket is close to 30% of all orders despite multi-touchpoint tracking, with limited external traffic sources

• Orders by device proportional to traffic, but not by channel

Twin Hypotheses:

Phone tracking is breaking across multiple sessions and

Phone-initiated traffic is migrating to desktop/tablet to purchase

…Interestingly, cookie and tracking preservation is better on tablets

than desktop.

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Understanding upper and lower limits:

•Upper limit bound by sales numbers

•Lower limits bound by performance

Common Sense Predictions

Felix Chien incorrectly-sourced phone orders cannot be more

than 7.6% of total sales under current media mix

Cross device sales (phone to desktop) are not likely to be more than that proportional to traffic by device – in this case a max of 20% of total orders

Potential for testing: Phone-based traffic may be providing 3x more value in phone-based sales than currently tracked to media source, and up to an additional 4.2x in cross-device sales for 7.2x higher potential value than estimated by strict CPA-based bidding

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Geographic test

Pulse test

Cause & Effect Testing

Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4 Period 5 Period 6 Period 7 Period 8 Period 9 Period 10

Impressions

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Adjusting for Time

0 5 10 15

Point of Investment

Sales Per Day From Initial Investment

1 6 11 16 21 26

1 6 11 16 21 26

Pulse length must take into

account sales cycle. If pulse is too short, it is difficult to determine trends because of overlapping “shoulder” data.

90% of sales in first 8 days 3 Day Pulse Cycle

7 Day Pulse Cycle

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Results

On Off On Off On Off

Unknown

Link/SEO

PPC

Social

• 47% more mobile impressions were delivered during “On” pulses

• “Unknown” sales increased by 28% during “On” pulses, PPC by 10.7%

• Total sales increased by 16.7% for a total PPC spend increase of 6.3%

(Data from Feb 17 – Jun 4 ’14; extrapolated for final period)

Order Volume

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Results: Valuing Mobile

Before

Phone-based traffic was

20.5% of total PPC clicks

2.5% of total orders were sourced back to phone-based PPC

After

Phone-based traffic is 30.2%

of total PPC clicks

Mix models predict phone-based PPC now responsible for 27% of total orders

Phone-based PPC traffic was being undervalued by >10x

#SMX 12 Jun 2014

Thank you

Soren Ryherd

soren@workingplanet.com

Working Planet

131 Wayland Avenue

Providence, RI 02906

401-709-3123

WorkingPlanet.com

@sorenryherd

@workingplanet

Thank You