#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Attribution is About Supporting “Chains of Value”

CHAIN-BASED ATTRIBUTION:

IT’S NOT ABOUT CREDIT

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Working Planet solves the problem of profitable customer acquisition

using paid digital media      

“Advertising  is  a  Financial  Investment  in  a  Financial  Outcome”  

Attribution Modeling – Predictive Financial Modeling – Media Mix Modeling

WorkingPlanet.com  

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Too  often,  the  Attribution  argument  it  is  about  which  program  or  budget  gets  credit.  

Attribution is Mired in “Credit”

Traditional  Media  Budget  Allocation  Process  -­‐  >  Photo  Credit:  SteveBlank.com  

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Individual  touchpoints  in  an  attribution  chain  don’t  create  value  by  themselves.  What  is  interesting  about  attribution  data  is  that  users  are  telling  us  they  take  a  more  complex  path,  in  fact,  that  many  need  a  more  complex  path.  

Why “Credit” Misses the Point

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Attribution  shouldn’t  be  about  dividing  credit,  but  about  understanding  the  chains  of  touchpoints  that  create  value,  and  protecting  the  chain.      

Holistic Viewpoint

Protecting the Chain is Everything

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

In  auction-­‐based  media,  determining  what  to  pay  is  the  crucial  decision.    Increasingly,  what  we  pay  is  (correctly)  tied  to  the  value  of  the  audience.    When  the  audience  utilizes  multiple  touches,  we  are  forced  to  look  at  a  more  complex  valuing  of  media.  

Why the Discussion Exists

Display Non-Brand Search Brand Search VALUE

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Classic  attribution  models  focus  on  distributing  the  value  across  touchpoints,  without  regard  to  the  impact  on  the  chain.  This  is  true  regardless  of  whether  that  is  last,  first,  weighted,  etc.  

We’re Forced to Do Something

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Distribute  value  based  on  the  Fragility  of    the  touchpoint  

Chain-Based Attribution

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Existence  is  based  on  position  in  competitive  auction    Accurate  tracking  data  may  be  missing    Link  exists  based  on  ephemeral  content  

What Makes a Link Fragile?

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Volume  in  auctions  is  tightly  tied  to  bids.        Any  degradation  of  bid  can  reduce  impression  share  and  destroy  the  chain.  

Auction-Based Fragility

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

In  any  performance-­‐based  system,  feedback  loops  from  customer  value  bring  value  “back”  to  the  initial  touchpoints.  If  there  is  a  data  gap,  media  that  is  highly  valuable  may  appear  valueless.    Device  migration,  the  lack  of  impression-­‐based  tracking,  built-­‐in  (single  touch)  attribution  reporting,  and  channel-­‐specific  tracking  are  largest  sources  of  tracking-­‐based  fragility.  

Tracking-Based Fragility

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Effect of Media on Out-Of-Channel Engagement

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Gaining  knowledge  where  data  gaps  exist:    

Understanding Cause & Effect

1.  Geographic  pulse  testing  to  see  out-­‐of-­‐channel  effects  2.  Regression-­‐based  modeling  (watch  out  for  latency!)  

3.  Dig  into  “Unknown  Bucket”  of  Brand  and  Direct  

4.  Continually  attack  data  gaps  to  infill  picture  with  hard  

data  

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

Supporting  Chains  of  Value  –  What  to  do    

1. Start  with  the  best  data  you  can:  per-­‐user  multi-­‐touchpoint  data  2. Try  to  understand  cause  and  effect  when  there  are  tracking  gaps  3. Fully  support  auction-­‐based  early  touchpoints!  4. Continually  work  backwards  from  sales  to  refine  approaches  

Summary – Next Steps

#SMX #21C @SorenRyherd

SEE YOU AT THE NEXT #SMX

THANK YOU!