TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORTAugust 14, 2020

CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force

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https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &

INTERVENTIONS

ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING

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TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

WHAT IS AN OUTBREAK?

• Rapid rise in occurrence of disease

• Can be localized or widespread

• COVID-19 is transmitted through air, surfaces, and contact

Graphic from https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/health/flu-vs-coronavirus-deaths/index.html

EXAMPLE SPREAD OF COVID-19TRANSMISSION RATE OF 2

1. STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN2. SOCIAL DISTANCING & FACE COVERINGS3. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC4. SCHOOL CLOSURES5. OPEN TX 1, 2, 3, 3 repealed, 2 partially

rolled back

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INTERVENTIONS & OPENING TX

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LOWEST TRANSMISSION RATE SINCE MAY

PEOPLE INFECTED PER CARRIER Week

1

Week2

21

SOUTH TEXAS

Week 4

4

Week3

3

5 InfectedIn 1 month

0.9 – 1.1

REPORT FOR12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND

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TOTAL CASES

10,482 CB RECOVERIES

COASTAL BEND COVID-19 CASES17,701 CBTOTAL CASES

7136 CB ACTIVE CASES

Texas-WideOutbreak

LocalOutbreaks

1st Wave

NUECES COUNTYNUECES TESTING UPDATEPERCENT POSITIVE TESTS DECLINING

9.7%

All Pos & Neg Tests Accounted For Here, So This is Our Best Estimate of the TrueProportion of Positive Tests

27%

Nueces PHRNational Guard

NUECES COUNTYNUECES TESTING UPDATE7d AVG NUMBER OF TESTS

Nueces PHRNational Guard

204

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TEXAS RANKINGS: CASES

Coastal Bend

1

9/10

2/34/5r

6/5s7

11

8

PUBLIC HEALTH REGIONS

AMARILLODALLAS

HOUSTON

LONGVIEWAUSTIN

SAN ANTONIO

EL PASO

SOUTH TEXAS

2Open TX 1 3 2 1.5

12

ARANSAS

NUECES

MCALLEN

SAN PATRICIO

LAREDOBROWNSVILLE

SAN ANTONIO

2OpnTX 1 3 2

VICTORIA

1.5StayHome

13

StayHome

OpnTX 1 2 3 2

SAN PATRICIOJIM WELLS

BEE

KLEBERGDUVALREFUGIO

1.5

BROOKS

TEXAS RANKINGS: HOSPITALIZATIONS

Coastal Bend

HOSPITAL OCCUPANCYCOASTAL BEND MEDSURG

MED

SURG

PAT

IEN

T CE

NSU

S

NON-COVIDCOVID

HOSPITAL OCCUPANCYCOASTAL BEND ICU

ICU

PAT

IEN

T CE

NSU

S

NON-COVIDCOVID

17

COVID-19 Confirmed Admits to Coastal Bend Inpatients

COVI

D-19

PAT

IEN

TS

TEXAS RANKINGS: FATALITIES

Coastal Bend

NOTE: DUE TO NEW TX DSHS PROTOCOL, FATALITIES IN PAST 10 DAYS ARE INCOMPLETE AND ARE NOT PRESENTED HERE

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COASTAL BEND COVID-19 FATALITIES

270 Nueces FATALITIES

Updated Reporting: Date on Death Certificate

287* CBFATALITIES

Original Reporting:Date Made Public

* Death certificates from past 14 days still

being processed

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COVID-19 Confirmed FatalitiesBy New Death Certificate Criteria

COVI

D-19

PAT

IEN

TS

NOTE: DUE TO NEW TX DSHS PROTOCOL, FATALITIES IN PAST 14 DAYS ARE INCOMPLETE

21In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker

CELL PHONES CAN BE USED TO ASSESS OUR BEHAVIORS, EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS

FootTraffic

LeavingHome

PotentialEncounters

WHAT ABOUT OUR PRIVACY?• Apps track your

location and the data is sold to businesses

• Google maps• Facebook• Instagram• Flashlight

• Anonymized data is used for targeted advertising & decision making

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LEAVING HOME & TRAVEL DECLININGCell Phone Location Model

• Proportion leaving home per day

• Device leaves home triggers count

• Distance traveled

DISTANCETRAVELED

LEAVINGHOME

OPNTX 1 2 3 2 1.5

HURRICANE HANNA

POTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS INCREASING

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Cell Phone Location Model

• Number of encounters per km2 per day scaled to Nueces

• Estimate probability of contact

• 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes

FRI-SAT

MON-THU

HURRICANE HANNA

OPNTX 1 2 3 2 1.5

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Cell Phone Location Model

• Number of encounters per km2 per day scaled to Nueces

• Estimate probability of contact

• 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes

POTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS INCREASING

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ESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGSCell Phone Foot Traffic Model

• Visits to local establishments counted

• Device near or in building

• safeGraph.comBARSRESTAURANTSGROCERYMALLS

HOME IMPROVEMENT

MOVIES

OPNTX 1 2 3 2 1.5

GAMING

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SCHOOL FOOT TRAFFIC (NUECES)Cell Phone Foot Traffic Model

• Visits to schools counted

• Device near or in building

• safeGraph.com

UNIVERSITIES

K-12JR COLLEGE

OPNTX 1 2 3 2 1.5

PRO\TECH SCHOOLS

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RECREATIONAL FOOT TRAFFICCell Phone Foot Traffic Model

• Visits to local establishments counted

• Device near or in building

• safeGraph.com

MUSEUMS

PARKSOTHER

BEACH

OPNTX 1 2 3 2 1.5

64,000 EST. VISITS TO CBAugust 3 to August 9

Coastal BendTRACKED VISITS TO RESTAURANTS

FROM OUTSIDE COASTAL BEND * 10

020406080

100120140160

Jun

8-14

Jun

15-2

1

Jun

22-2

8

Jun

29-5

Jul 6

-12

Jul 1

3-19

Jul 2

0-26

Jul 2

7-2

Aug

3-9

Thou

sand

s

TRAVEL BY LOCALS

August 7-9 97,000locationsoutside Coastal Bend

SUMMARY• Texas-Wide-Outbreak is Not Over• COVID-19 cases declining slowly in CB

• Potentially 1 in every 10 Coastal Bend residents infected actively

• COVID-19 ICU usage & fatalities declining• Transmission rate ~ 0.9 - 1.1• Cell phone data predicts increasing

transmission rate, cases in future• Need to continue efforts to reduce

transmission, not time to relax31

HELP CONTAINOUTBREAK

• Task force recommends you do as much as possible to stop the transmission of COVID

• No Shirt, No Shoes, No Mask, No Service

• Close loopholes in social distancing policies

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1918 Flu PandemicSeattle Police Force https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/flu-america-1918-masks-intl-hnk/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/flu-america-1918-masks-intl-hnk/index.html

HOW WE SLOW DOWN COVID-19

• Each of us can make a difference• Face coverings in public decrease

transmission by up to 50%• Social distance (6+ ft)• Self-isolate when sick or exposed• Stay-at-Home if you can• Hygiene & sanitize• Avoid social gatherings• Curbside & takeout

• Support testing & contact tracing

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https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

https://tinyurl.com/TAMUCC-COVID

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice President Mahdy

• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,

Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts, Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner

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https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response

Texas Coastal Bend COVID-19 Pandemic ReportSlide Number 2WHAT IS AN OUTBREAK?Slide Number 4Lowest Transmission �rate since may Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21WHAT ABOUT OUR PRIVACY?LEAVING HOME & TRAVEL DECLININGPOTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGPOTENTIAL ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGESSENTIAL & NON-ESSENTIAL GATHERINGSSCHOOL FOOT TRAFFIC (NUECES)RECREATIONAL FOOT TRAFFIC64,000 EST. VISITS TO CB�August 3 to August 9TRAVEL BY LOCALSSlide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33acknowledgements