TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORTMay 1, 2020

CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force

Speakers: Dr. Philippe Tissot & Dr. Chris Bird

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ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &

INTERVENTIONS

ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING

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TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES

REPORT FOR12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND

AransasBeeBrooksDuvalJim WellsKenedy

KlebergLive OakNueces

McMullen Refugio

San Patricio3

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COASTALBEND CASES

COASTAL BEND CONFIRMED:• 138 CASES (102 Nueces)

• 54 RECOVERIES (Nueces)*• 4 FATALITIES (3 Nueces)

CB FATALITIES

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BEXARCASES

COASTALBEND CASES

BX FATALITIESCB FATALITIES

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San Antonio = Bexar County (BX)

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Stay-at-Home

NUECES

REST OF COASTAL BEND

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BEXAR

COASTAL BEND

Stay-at-Home

1. MANDATORY STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN2. LOOSENING RESTRICTIONS ON

SOCIAL/PUBLIC GATHERING3. SCHOOL CLOSURES4. SOCIAL DISTANCING5. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC

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REVIEW OF INTERVENTIONS

3.09

WITHOUT INTERVENTIONSCOVID-19 SPREADS

PEOPLE INFECTED PER CARRIER Week

1

Week2

Week3

Week4

927 81

39

INTERVENTIONS REDUCE TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19

WITH INTERVENTIONS

0.5Coin Flip

1 1 0

1

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Tracking the Effect of Interventions is Critical in Avoiding the Second Wave

11In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker

Saturdays

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STAYAT

HOME

BASELINE

TRACKING INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESSCell Phone Location Model

• Number of encounters per km2 per day scaled to Nueces

• Estimate probability of contact

• 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes

1. “OPEN ECONOMY” 100% MAY 1• End stay-at-home, allow public gatherings• Keep other interventions

2. “OPEN ECONOMY” 50% MAY 1, 100% MAY 15• Roll back Stay-at-Home, public gatherings in stages • Keep other interventions

3. WE OFFSET SUNSETING INTERVENTIONS WITH ELEVATED SOCIAL DISTANCING, MASKS, ETC…

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3 STATEWIDE SCENARIOS MODELEDIN COASTAL BEND

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Second WaveIn Coastal Bend

STAY-AT-HOMESCENARIO:

“OPEN ECONOMY”STATEWIDE

APRIL 30

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Start of 2nd Wave

In Coastal Bend

SCENARIO:“OPEN ECONOMY”

IN STAGESBY MAY 15

STAY-AT-HOME

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Slowly Extinguishes

COVID-19In Coastal Bend

SCENARIO:OFFSET

“OPEN ECONOMY”

STAY-AT-HOME

SUMMARY• New cases in Coastal Bend are declining

slowly• 1-2 per day on average

• Most likely that COVID-19 is burning out in TX

• But transmission ratio rising according to cell phones

• Curve is flattened but “Opening Economy” projected to lead to spread of COVID-19

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“OPENING ECONOMY” &CONTROLLING SPREAD OF COVID-19

• Other interventions required to control virus transmission

• CDC ‘Masks in public’ decreases transmission

• Self-isolate when symptomatic• More testing capacity and contact tracing to

identify infection and enable isolation of infectious people

• New treatments to mitigate effects of COVID-19

• Seasonality could reduce transmission in summer, but we’re not sure 18

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice President Mahdy

• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,

Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts, Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner

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https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response