Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Net Merit Update

2006

Paul VanRaden, John Cole, and George WiggansPaul VanRaden, John Cole, and George Wiggans

Animal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, [email protected]

Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Net Merit UpdateNet Merit Update

Holstein Sire Committee, Select Sires 2006 (2) P.M. VanRaden200

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Stillbirth EvaluationsStillbirth Evaluations

Percent stillbirths in first-calf heifers (%SBH), similar to calving ease (%DBH) Sire SB: 12.0% +- 1.5% Daughter SB: 12.0% +- 2.5%

Range 8 – 17% sire, 6 – 27% daughter Fewer stillbirths (avg 5%) in later parities Number of records half of calving ease Display 4 traits or only an index?


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Stillbirth DataStillbirth Data

Alive Dead Died Usable

Parity 1 2 3 Records

1 88.0% 11.3% .7% 1,505,826

2+ 95.0% 3.9% 1.1% 4,202,200

Usable Records

5,384,029 348,677 29,320 5,762,026

Stillbirth Score


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Stillbirth Genetic TrendStillbirth Genetic Trend

10

11

12

13

14

15

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Birth Year

Sti

llbir

th P

erce

nt

DSB

SSB

DSB = Daughter (cow’s) contribution to stillbirth rate.

SSB = Service sire’s contribution to stillbirth rate.


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Distribution of ReliabilitiesDistribution of Reliabilities

<=45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 71-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-990

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Direct

Maternal

Reliability

Percentage


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Correlations Among TraitsCorrelations Among Traits(99% Rel bulls, n = 571)(99% Rel bulls, n = 571)

Daughter SB

Sire CE

Daughter CE

Sire SB 0.28 0.67 0.29

Daughter SB 0.25 0.63

Sire CE 0.46


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Correlations among domestic and Correlations among domestic and Interbull stillbirth solutions Interbull stillbirth solutions ((≥ ≥ 90% Rel)90% Rel)

Sire Daughter

CHE 0.90 0.85

DNK 0.78 0.75

FIN 0.65 0.96

NLD 0.71 0.69

SWE 0.63 0.89


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Economic AssumptionsEconomic Assumptions

Newborn calf value• $450 for females• $150 for males

Expenses per difficult birth (4 or 5)• $75 labor and veterinary• $100 reduced milk yield• $75 reduced fertility and longevity• 1% chance of cow death ($1800)


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Calving Ability IndexesCalving Ability Indexes

Calve Ease Stillbirth Mod-el

Total MeritSire Dtr Sire Dtr

DEU 19 26 26 29 AM 7%

NLD 33 17 33 17 AM 4%

CHE 12 12 38 38 AM 0%

NOR 0 34 33 33 SM 3%

proposed

USA 25 15 15 45 SM 5%


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Calving AbilityCalving Ability


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Holstein Pregnancy Rate − Holstein Pregnancy Rate − Phenotypic and Genetic Trend Phenotypic and Genetic Trend

1965−20001965−2000

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Bre

ed

ing

Va

lue

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Pre

gn

an

cy

Ra

te

Breeding Value

Pregnancy Rate


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Culling EmphasisCulling Emphasis

Relative emphasis % on first-parity trait

YearMilk Yield

Fat Yield

Prot. Yield SCS DO CE FS

1988 100 82 99 -19 -18 - 8 26

1992 100 76 101 -25 -23 - 9 24

1996 100 74 100 -26 -30 - 9 23

2000 100 78 95 -33 -74 -15 33


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Flat PL CreditsFlat PL Credits

20 3 4 51

Years

20

140

40

60

80

100

120

0

Cre

dit

(%

)

321


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Lactation Curve PL CreditsLactation Curve PL Credits

20 3 4 51

Years

20

140

40

60

80

100

120

0

Cre

dit

(%

)

321


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Correlation of PL, Other TraitsCorrelation of PL, Other TraitsPTA of bulls born since 1995PTA of bulls born since 1995

Pro SCS DPR UddFeet / Leg Size DCE

Flat, 305

.07 -.28 .59 .12 .04 -.20 -.26

Curves .10 -.30 .51 .12 .05 -.21 -.27


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NOT on Herdlife Builder ListNOT on Herdlife Builder List

Bull PL SCS DPR PTAT NM$

O Man +3.3 2.77 +1.9 +.48 +703

Bright +3.1 2.63 +1.7 +.96 +322

Casimir +2.6 2.71 +.4 +1.08 +444

Zenith +2.1 2.61 +1.1 +1.43 +383

Man +1.8 2.49 +.0 +1.33 +513

Boone +1.4 2.72 -.2 +.59 +542


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Herdlife Builders?Herdlife Builders?

Bull PL SCS DPR PTAT NM$

Elcon -1.2 3.19 -1.3 +.97 +239

Best -.6 3.20 -.7 +1.78 +235

Hi Metro -.6 2.81 -2.8 +2.82 +64

Sable -.5 3.12 -1.3 +1.21 +358

Biaritz -.3 2.90 -1.3 +1.70 +256

Blitz +.1 3.03 -2.4 +1.86 +157


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Top PL Proof StabilityTop PL Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%

Bull Feb’03 Aug‘04 Feb’06

Congo +2.6 +2.9 +2.9

Brass +1.7 +2.0 +.9

Beach +1.6 +1.5 +1.1

Geno +1.6 +2.0 +1.3

Equity +1.5 +1.0 +.4

Avg REL 71% 83% 96%PL adjusted to 2005 base


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Bottom PL Proof StabilityBottom PL Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL PL > 90%


Talisman -2.1 -2.4 -1.5

Calvin -2.0 -1.7 -1.4

Hillcrest -1.2 -.9 -1.6

Truman -1.2 -1.1 -1.5

Derry -1.0 -1.6 -1.3

Avg REL 71% 83% 96%PL adjusted to 2005 base


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Top DPR Proof StabilityTop DPR Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%


Mozer +.5 +.8 +.6

Geno +.3 +.6 +.5

Beach +.2 +1.6 +1.4

Brass +.2 -.3 -.9

Alloy +.0 -.1 +1.2

Avg REL 67% 82% 96%DPR adjusted to 2005 base


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Bottom DPR Proof StabilityBottom DPR Proof StabilitySelect Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%Select Sires bulls born 1995-96, current REL DPR > 90%


Hi Metro -3.4 -3.0 -2.8

Hillcrest -2.6 -2.1 -3.1

Louie -2.4 -1.9 -1.6

Calvin -2.2 -1.9 -1.8

Sovereign-Red -2.0 -1.6 -1.6

Avg REL 67% 82% 96%DPR adjusted to 2005 base


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Days Open Genetic Correlations Days Open Genetic Correlations Jorjani, 2005 Interbull BulletinJorjani, 2005 Interbull Bulletin

DFS ESP GBR IRL NLD NZL USA

DFS .91 .91 .75 .93 .76 .91

ESP .91 .89 .82 .90 .83 .93

GBR .91 .89 .84 .96 .84 .85

IRL .75 .82 .84 .80 .70 .80

NLD .93 .90 .96 .80 .83 .88

NZL .76 .83 .84 .85 .83 .73

USA .91 .93 .85 .80 .88 .73

DFS = Denmark-Finland-Sweden


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Predict Longevity from FertilityPredict Longevity from Fertility

Which cow fertility trait contributes most to longevity?• Days to first insemination (DFI)• Non−return rate (NR)

Longevity depends most on DFI• Correlations = .33 DFI, .11 NR in USA• 23% DFI and 12% NR used in CAN• Only DFI used in NLD


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Fertility Trait IndexesFertility Trait Indexes% relative emphasis% relative emphasis

Trait NLD ITA ESP CAN DNK1 DO2 NR3

Days 1st Insem. 54 56 52 25 15 69

Non− Return 46 44 48 65 70 31 100

Heifer fertility 10 15

1Time from first to last insemination replaces non−return rate2Countries that evaluate only days open or calving interval3Countries that evaluate only non−return rate or number of inseminations


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Milk, Fat, and Protein PricesMilk, Fat, and Protein PricesFederal Order Class III (Cheese)Federal Order Class III (Cheese)

Year Milk Fat Protein Carrier SCS

2000 9.74 1.25 1.69 .0030 .14

2001 13.10 1.85 1.96 .0075 .17

2002 10.42 1.19 1.97 .0035 .14

2003 11.42 1.21 2.38 .0005 .16

2004 15.39 2.05 2.60 .0042 .20

2005 14.05 1.71 2.46 .0035 .18


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Proposed and Current PricesProposed and Current PricesNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid MeritNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid Merit

Year Milk Fat Prot Carrier SCS

2006 NM 12.70 1.50 1.90 1.75 .18

2006 CM 12.70 1.50 2.80 -.95 .18

2006 FM 12.70 1.50 .50 5.95 .18

2003 NM 12.70 1.30 2.30 1.25 .18

2003 CM 12.70 1.30 3.00 -.85 .18

2003 FM 12.70 1.30 1.00 5.15 .18


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Changes expected for AugustChanges expected for August

Stillbirth evaluation• Include in calving ability index

New definition of productive life• Credit for longer lactations• Lower correlation with fertility• Standard deviation 1.43 times larger

Update NM$ economic values


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Carlin M Ivanhoe Bell – BL CVCarlin M Ivanhoe Bell – BL CV

Stillbirth, Productive Life, and Net Merit Update

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