Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators · improvements over April 2014 and still outpacing...

Southwest Florida Regional Economic

Indicators

April 2015

Lutgert College Of Business 10501 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965

Phone 239-590-7090 www.fgcu.edu/cob/reri

2

Table of Contents

Introduction: Regional and National Background ........................................................................................................ 3

Airport Passenger Activity ............................................................................................................................................. 7

Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity............................................................................................... 7

Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity ............................................................................................................ 8

Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity ..................................................................................................... 8

Tourist Tax Revenues .................................................................................................................................................... 9

Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties .......................................................................................... 9

Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA ................................................................................................. 10

Single-Family Building Permits .................................................................................................................................... 10

Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County ......................................................................................... 11

Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County .................................................................................... 11

Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County................................................................................ 12

Taxable Sales ............................................................................................................................................................... 12

Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region ............................................................................................................ 13

Chart 10: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties ......................................................................................................... 13

Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties ........................................................................................................... 14

Workforce – Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment ..................................................................................... 14

Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment ......................................................................................... 15

Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment .................................................................................... 15

Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment................................................................................ 16

Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment ................................................................................... 16

Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment .................................................................................... 17

Sales of Existing Single–family Homes and Median Sales Prices ................................................................................. 17

Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County ................................................................................. 18

Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County ............................................................................. 18

Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County ......................................................................... 19

Consumer Sentiment Index ......................................................................................................................................... 19

Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index .................................................................................................................... 20

Consumer Price Index.................................................................................................................................................. 20

Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change............................................................................................................... 21

Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change ................................................................. 21

Population ................................................................................................................................................................... 22

Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2013 ............................................................................... 22

Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2013 ................................................................................. 23

Chart 25: Population Projections by County .......................................................................................................... 23

3

Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7319 Email: [email protected]

Dr. Chris Westley, Associate Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7090 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7315 Email: [email protected]

Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: 239-590-7489 Email: [email protected]

Copyright © 2015 FGCU - All rights reserved.

Introduction: Regional and National Background The Southwest Florida economy continues to show moderate to fast growth, with marked improvements over April 2014 and still outpacing national averages of key economic indicators. The relative strength of our economy was confirmed in part by the release of employment figures for March. In a report issued on April 17th, the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity revealed an average decrease in the unemployment rate for our five-county region of 1.06 percentage points from March 2014 to March 2015. While Lee and Collier posted unemployment rates among the lowest in the state, with 5.1 and 4.8 percent respectively, Hendry County’s measure of 7.4 percent reflected an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year. Improved unemployment rates in the region also reflected positive seasonal effects that are expected to recede as summer becomes closer. Such positive economic developments for Southwest Florida continue to contrast with less certain economic performance in the United States and Europe. On April 29, the U.S. Department of Commerce released a tepid real GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2015 of only 0.2 percent, following 2.2 percent for the fourth quarter of 2014 and a more robust 5.0 percent for the third quarter of 2014. U.S. real average weekly earnings increased by 2.3 percent from March 2014 to March 2015. Meanwhile, manufacturing indices released by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, Dallas, and Kansas City suggested soft manufacturing conditions persist in much of the country. In Europe, while the European Central Bank is in the early stages of a new bond-buying program (a European version of quantitative easing), negotiations between Greek and ECB officials continue to create uncertainty. The Bank of Greece released data indicating 5.5 billion euros in capital flight from that country for March. The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index reached its highest level in 10 years. Seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales for January 2015 were up 10 percent ($189 million) over January 2014. Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties were up 15 percent in February 2015, compared to February 2014. Passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports in February 2015 was six percent above the February 2014 figure. Realtor® sales of existing single-family homes for the three coastal counties in March 2015 were up 20 percent over March 2014, along with substantial increases in median prices. While the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the five-county region declined to 5.7 percent in March 2015 from 6.7 percent a year earlier, Florida’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.7 percent in March 2015 from 6.5 percent in March 2014. The national unemployment rate in March 2015 was 5.5 percent, down from 6.6 percent in March 2014. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) remained at 2.6 million in March 2015, which is 29.8 percent of all unemployed.

mailto:[email protected]



4

The March Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 126,000 for the month. Although this represented a decrease from February’s employment gain of 264,000, employment growth nationally averaged 269,000 per month over the last 12 months. The March employment increases included 40,000 in professional and business services, 38,000 in education and health services, 25,900 in retail trade, 13,000 in leisure and hospitality, 9,500 in transportation and warehousing, 8,000 in financial activities, 5,800 in wholesale trade, and 2,000 in information (media). March decreases included 3,000 in government, 1,000 in construction, and 1,000 in manufacturing and 1,000 in manufacturing. There was no change in employment reported for other services. The national consumer price index (CPI) decreased in March by 0.1 percentage points. The shelter index (rental equivalence measure for homeowner costs) has risen 3.0 percent over the last 12 months. Medical care services increased 1.9 percent, and energy prices decreased 18.3 percent. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) increased by 1.8 percent. National housing prices increased 5.0 percent for the 20-city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the 12 months ending February 2015. The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on April 29th. Its key points included the following:

Economic growth slowed during the winter months; Labor market conditions remain unchanged, with a moderation in job gains and a steady

unemployment rate; Household spending growth declined, although declines in energy prices have boosted household

purchasing power; Business fixed investment softened, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and

export growth has weakened; Inflation continues to run further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting

declines in energy prices; The Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term; The Committee anticipates that it will…raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it

has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2-percent objective over the medium term;

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities to help maintain accommodative financial conditions;

When it begins to remove policy accommodation, the Committee will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer-run.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, 2015.

The FOMC released its latest quarterly forecast for real GDP and the unemployment rate on March 18, 2015, as shown in the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast, and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The March forecast was similar to the December forecast but reflects slightly less optimistic growth and unemployment estimates for 2015.

5

The GDP chart shows that recovery started in 2009, but it is expected to be a few more years before the economy returns to a normal long-run trend (“LR”). For 2015, the overall projected range is 2.1 to 3.1 percent with a central tendency range of 2.3 to 2.7 percent. For 2016, the overall projected range is 2.2 to 3.0 percent with a central tendency range of 2.3 to 2.7 percent. For 2017, the overall projected range is 1.8 to 2.5 percent with a central tendency range of 2.0 to 2.4 percent. The long-run trend for Real GDP has a range of 1.8 to 2.5 percent growth with a central tendency range of 2.0 to 2.3 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year.

Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 18, 2015.

As shown in the following chart, the U.S. unemployment rate has continued to decline. For 2015, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.8 to 5.3 percent with a central tendency range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent. For 2016, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.5 to 5.2 percent with a central tendency range of 4.9 to 5.1 percent. For 2017, the projected range for the unemployment rate is 4.8 to 5.5 percent with a central tendency range of 4.8 to 5.1 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 4.9 to 5.8 percent with a central tendency of 5.0 to 5.2 percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year.

2.2

-3.3

-0.1

1.7

2.5 2.43.1 3.0

2.5 2.52.42.0

2.1 2.21.8 1.8

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LR

Perc

en

t

Year

Growth of U.S Real GDP

6

Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 18, 2015.

Since its inception, this report has been directed and edited by Professor Gary Jackson. Gary is embarking on a well-deserved retirement. While his leadership and counsel will be missed, his successor, Prof. Christopher Westley, has already shown a keen interest in the work of RERI and the Regional Economic Indicators report in particular. We look forward to the future and renew our sincere thanks and appreciation to the individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the REALTORS® of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices.

9.9

7.0

4.8

7.8

5.3 5.2 5.55.8

5.7

4.5 4.8 4.94.8

6.9

9.5

8.7

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LR

Perc

en

t

Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

7

Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. Passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports grew to 1,084,059 in February 2015, up seven percent over January 2015, and six-percent higher than February 2014. Chart 1 shows Southwest Florida International Airport passenger activity of 906,039 in February 2015, a five percent increase over February 2014. Sarasota Bradenton Airport recorded 111,766 passengers in February 2015, a nine percent increase over February 2014, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda passenger activity rose as well, amounting to 66,254 in February 2015, up 18 percent over February 2014, as shown in Chart 3.

Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity

Source: Local Airport Authorities

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Arr

ivals

plu

s D

ep

art

ure

s -

Th

ou

san

ds

SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity

2012

2013

2014

2015

8

Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity


Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity


50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225


Arr

ivals

plu

s D

ep

art

ure

s -

Th

ou

san

ds

Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity

2012

2013

2014

2015

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Arr

iva

ls p

lus

Dep

art

ure

s -

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity

9

Tourist Tax Revenues Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in total in Chart 4 and for each coastal county in Chart 5, based on month of occupancy. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total tourist tax revenues for the three-county area were up 15 percent in February 2015 over February 2014, continuing the long-term positive trend. Charlotte County’s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues were $280,833 in February 2015, 19-percent higher than February 2014. Collier County’s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues were equal to $1,695,887 in February 2015, an increase of 12 percent over February 2014. Lee County seasonally-adjusted revenues amounted to $3,208,862 in February 2015, up 17 percent over February 2014.

Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties

Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15

Mo

nth

ly T

ou

rst

Ta

x R

eve

nu

e -

Mil

lio

ns

Tourist Tax Revenue 2011 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total

Unadjusted Data

Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data

10

Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA

Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports

Single-Family Building Permits Single-family building permits in the three coastal counties rose to a total of 669 in March 2015, an increase of 132 permits over February 2015, and 230 (52 percent) more than March 2014. Lee County issued 340 permits in March 2015, up 36 percent over March 2014, as shown in Chart 6. In March 2015, Collier County recorded 264 permits, 81-percent more than March 2014, as shown in Chart 7. Charlotte County issued 65 permits in March 2015, an increase of 51 percent over March 2014, as shown in Chart 8. For the first 3 months of 2015, coastal county building permits amounted to 1,662 compared to 1,204 through March 2014. Hendry County issued four permits through March 2015 compared to two during the first three months of 2014.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Mo

nth

ly T

ou

ris

t T

ax

Re

ve

nu

e -

$ M

illi

on

s

County Tourist Tax Revenue - 2011 to present

Charlotte

Collier

Lee

11

Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County

Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits.

Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County

Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only.

10

100

1000

2005 A

v

2006 A

v

2007 A

v

2008 A

v

2009 A

v

2010 A

v

2011 A

v

2012 A

v

2013 A

v

2014 A

v

Ma

r 20

14

Ap

r 2

01

4

Ma

y 2

014

Jun

2014

Jul 2014

Au

g 2

014

Se

p 2

014

Oct

20

14

Nov 2

01

4

Dec 2

01

4

Jan

2015

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Pe

rmit

s Is

su

ed

(L

og

ari

thm

ic S

ca

le)

Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County2005-2014 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend

Permits

Linear Trend

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 A

v

2006 A

v

2007 A

v

2008 A

v

2009 A

v

2010 A

v

2011 A

v

2012 A

v

2013 A

v

2014 A

v

Ma

r 20

14

Ap

r 201

4

Ma

y 2

014

Jun

2014

Jul 2014

Au

g 2

014

Se

p 2

014

Oct 201

4

Nov 2

014

Dec 2

014

Jan

2015

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Perm

its Is

su

ed

Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County2005-2014 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend

Permits

Linear Trend

12

Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County

Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only.

Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. The following charts show the latest month of merchants’ collections, one month earlier than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Chart 9 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. The five counties in Southwest Florida had total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales of $1.994 billion for January 2015, 10-percent ($189.3 million) higher than January 2014. Charts 10 and 11 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties. All five counties again showed gains over the prior year. Lee County’s taxable sales increased from $974.8 million in January 2014 to $1.083 billion in January 2015, an 11-percent increase. Collier County’s taxable sales increased from $615.2 million to $676.8 million, an increase of 10 percent over the same month last year. Charlotte County’s taxable sales grew by nine percent from $185.2 million to $202.4 million, a nine percent increase. Hendry County’s taxable sales were up eight percent from $25.6 million in January 2014 to $27.7 million in January 2015. Taxable sales in Glades County rose from $2.5 million in January 2014 to $2.7 million in January 2015, an increase of 10 percent. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted.

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 A

v

2006 A

v

2007 A

v

2008 A

v

2009 A

v

2010 A

v

2011 A

v

2012 A

v

2013 A

v

2014 A

v

Ma

r 20

14

Ap

r 201

4

Ma

y 2

014

Jun

2014

Jul 2014

Au

g 2

014

Se

p 2

014

Oct 201

4

Nov 2

014

Dec 2

014

Jan

2015

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Perm

its Issu

ed

Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County2005-2014 Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend

Permits

Linear Trend

13

Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region

Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research

Chart 10: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Mo

nth

ly T

ax

ab

le S

ale

s -

$ B

illo

ns

Taxable Sales 2011 to Present - 5 County Region

Unadjusted Data

Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


Mo

nth

ly T

ax

ab

kle

Sa

les

-$

Mil

lio

ns

Coastal County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present

All Data Seasonally Adjusted

Lee

Collier

Charlotte


Lee

Collier

Charlotte

14

Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties


Workforce – Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 12-16 show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 2005 to March 2015, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Unemployment rates above five or six percent generally reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends. The March 2015 seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for our five-county region was 5.7 percent, down from 6.7 percent in March 2014. The improvement is attributable to an increase of 2,842 in the seasonally-adjusted number of employed, and a decrease of 6,271 in the number of unemployed in the region from March 2014 to March 2015.

Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in March 2015, the same as February 2015 and down from 6.5 percent in March 2014, as shown in Chart 12. Collier County’s unemployment rate was also 5.4 percent in March 2015, down from 5.5 percent in February 2015 and from 6.4 percent in March 2014, as shown in Chart 13. The unemployment rate in Charlotte County was 6.4 percent in March 2015, up from 6.3 percent in February 2015, but down 0.9 percentage points from March 2014, as shown in Chart 14. Hendry County’s March 2015 unemployment rate was 9.2 percent, down from 9.3 percent in February 2015 and from 11.1 percent in March 2014, as shown in Chart 15. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County inched up to 6.9 percent in March 2015, compared to 6.7 percent in February 2015, but down from the 7.9 percent figure of March 2014, as shown in Chart 16. Florida’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in March 2015, unchanged from the revised February 2015 rate, and down 0.8 percentage points from 6.5 percent a year ago. Nationally,

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Mo

nth

ly T

ax

ab

le S

ale

s -

$ M

illi

on

s

Inland County Taxable Sales - 2011 to Present

Glades

Hendry


15

the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate has declined from 6.6 percent in March 2014 to 5.5 percent in March 2015.

Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI

Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Rat

e -

Pe

rce

nt

Nu

mb

ers

of

Emp

loye

d /

Un

em

plo

yed

-Th

ou

san

ds

Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County

Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Rat

e -

Pe

rce

nt

Nu

mb

ers

of

Emp

loye

d /

Un

em

plo

yed

-Th

ou

san

ds

Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County


16

Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment


Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Rat

e -

Pe

rce

nt

Nu

mb

ers

of

Emp

loye

d /

Un

em

plo

yed

-Th

ou

san

ds

Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Rat

e -

Pe

rce

nt

Nu

mb

ers

of

Emp

loye

d /

Un

em

plo

yed

-Th

ou

san

ds

Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County


17

Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment


Sales of Existing Single–family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor® for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are shown in Charts 17-19. The line represents median prices against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. A total of 2,239 single-family homes were sold in the three coastal counties during March 2015, up 20 percent over March 2014, and 38-percent above the prior month of February 2015. For the first quarter ending on March 31, 2015, coastal county Realtor sales of single-family homes amounted to 5,310, a 15-percent increase from the same period in 2014. Lee County sales in March 2015 were 1,332 units, an increase of 25 percent over March 2014, along with a 19 percent increase in the median price to $219,938 over the same period. Collier County recorded single-family home sales of 433 in March 2015 compared to 455 units in March 2014 and 314 units in February 2015. The median price climbed to $387,000 from $355,000 in March 2014. Charlotte County reported 474 single-family homes sold in in March 2015, up 35 percent over March 2014. The March 2015 median price of $166,075 represented a 17-percent increase over March 2014.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Rat

e -

Pe

rce

nt

Nu

mb

ers

of

Emp

loye

d /

Un

em

plo

yed

-Th

ou

san

ds

Labor Force and Unemployment: Glades County


18

Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County

Source: REALTOR® Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc.

Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County

* Does not include Marco Island.

Source: Naples Area Board of REALTORS® (NABOR) www.naplesarea.com

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Ap

r 201

3

Ma

y 2

013

Jun

2013

Jul 2013

Au

g 2

013

Se

p 2

013

Oct 201

3

Nov 2

013

Dec 2

013

Jan

2014

Fe

b 2

014

Ma

r 20

14

Ap

r 201

4

Ma

y 2

014

Jun

2014

Jul 2014

Au

g 2

014

Se

p 2

014

Oct 201

4

Nov 2

014

Dec 2

014

Jan

2015

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Med

ian

Sale

Pri

ce -

Th

ou

san

ds

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

mes S

old

Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS®

Lee Homes Sold

Lee Median Sale Price

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r 201

3

Ma

y 2

013

Jun

2013

Jul 2013

Au

g 2

013

Se

p 2

013

Oct 201

3

Nov 2

013

Dec 2

013

Jan

2014

Fe

b 2

014

Ma

r 20

14

Ap

r 201

4

Ma

y 2

014

Jun

2014

Jul 2014

Au

g 2

014

Se

p 2

014

Oct 201

4

Nov 2

014

Dec 2

014

Jan

2015

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Med

ian

Sale

Pri

ce -

Th

ou

san

ds

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

mes S

old

Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS®

Collier Homes Sold

Collier Median Sale Price

http://www.naplesarea.com/

19

Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County

Source: Florida REALTORS ® Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html

Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 20 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index (“CSI”) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment (“ICS”) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The long-term trend continues to be positive for both indices. The national ICS declined to 93.0 in March 2015, down 2.4 points from February 2015, but 13.0 points above March 2014. In the March 27, 2015, Survey of Consumers, chief economist Richard Curtin noted that, “The harsh winter weather and the small rebound in gas prices caused some slippage in consumer confidence since the start of the year. Nonetheless, expanding job opportunities as well as more favorable wage gains have meant that consumer spending will strongly rebound during the balance of the year.” The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 96.8 in March 2015, up 3.1 points from the February 2015 figure, and an increase of 16.8 points over the March 2014 figure. This represents its highest reading in 10 years. In the March 27, 2015, Florida Consumer Sentiment Index, Chris McCarty, Director of the University of Florida’s Survey Research Center, noted that “Florida consumers are particularly optimistic in March about the future. The three components that are forward-looking are much higher than they have been for quite some time. Overall, the index reflects a Florida consumer who is really feeling a recovery. Increases in the overall index were broad-based across age and income groups.”

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Ap

r 201

3

Ma

y 2

013

Jun

2013

Jul 2013

Au

g 2

013

Se

p 2

013

Oct 201

3

Nov 2

01

3

Dec 2

01

3

Jan

2014

Fe

b 2

014

Ma

r 20

14

Ap

r 201

4

Ma

y 2

014

Jun

2014

Jul 2014

Au

g 2

014

Se

p 2

014

Oct 201

4

Nov 2

01

4

Dec 2

01

4

Jan

2015

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

r 20

15

Med

ian

Sale

Pri

ce -

Th

ou

san

ds

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

mes S

old

Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS®

Charlotte Homes Sold

Charlotte Median Sale Price

http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.html

20

Chart 20: Consumer Sentiment Index

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan

Consumer Price Index Year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through February 2015 are shown in Chart 21. As noted last month, consumer price inflation has moderated noticeably. The latest data shows that the February 2015 National CPI was substantially unchanged from February 2014, compared to 0.8 percent growth from December 2013 to December 2014. The U.S. Southern Region CPI actually decreased by 0.3 percent in the 12-monthperiod ended February 2015. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CPI increased by 0.4 percent between February 2014 and February 2015, 1.0 points below the increase of 1.4 points over the December 2013 to December 2014 period.

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Ma

r-12

Jun

-12

Se

p-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jun

-13

Se

p-1

3

Dec-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Se

p-1

4

Dec-1

4

Ma

r-15

Florida and US Consumer Sentiment IndicesMost Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend

FL CSI US ICS

FL CSI Trend US ICS Trend

21

Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change

Source: BLS Chart 22 shows the components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending February 2015. The largest increase from February 2015 was in other goods and services (7.5 percent). Lower gasoline prices contributed to a 10.9-percent reduction in the transportation segment, while apparel costs dropped by 5.9 percent.

Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change

Source: BLS

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15

Ch

an

ge

Fro

m Y

ea

r E

arl

ier

Consumer Price Index - Percentage Change From Year Earlier

Miami / Ft. Lauderdale

US South Region

US National

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Transportation

Apparel

Recreation

Education and communication

Medical care

Food and beverages

Housing

Other goods and services *

12 Month Percentage Change

Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending February 2015

* Other goods and services:Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal

goods.

22

Population As previously reported, the following charts show historic population growth as well as population projections recently updated by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) working with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Regional population growth from 1990 to 2013 averaged 2.8 percent per year and is shown in Charts 23 and 24. The compound average annual rate of growth for 1990 to 2013 was 3.5 percent in Collier County, 2.9 percent in Lee, 2.2 percent in Glades County, and 1.7 percent each in Charlotte and Hendry Counties. Chart 25 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 2015 to 2040. The regional projected population growth averages a slower 1.5 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 50 percent for the five-county region from 2013 to 2040. The total 5-county population projection is 1,790,704 for 2040. Lee County population is projected to grow an average of 1.8 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at 0.8 percent per year. Hendry County’s population is projected to grow at an average of 0.3 percent per year and Glades County at 0.8 percent per year.

Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2013

Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 2014 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April 2014.

111

Charlotte

164152

Collier

334335Lee

643

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Po

pu

lati

on

-T

ho

us

an

ds

Historic Population GrowthCharlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties

23

Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 1990 to 2013


Chart 25: Population Projections by County


7.6

Glades

12.7

25.8

Hendry

37.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Po

pu

lati

on

-T

ho

us

an

ds

Historic Population GrowthGlades and Hendry Counties

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Glades 12,894 13,478 14,011 14,496 14,890 15,227

Hendry 38,121 39,031 39,741 40,275 40,670 40,892

Charlotte 166,304 174,121 180,958 186,962 192,774 197,729

Collier 345,100 379,059 411,368 441,903 470,609 492,533

Lee 673,826 758,621 837,828 911,479 980,632 1,044,323

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Po

pu

lato

n (

Tho

usa

nd

s)

Population Projections 2015 - 2040

Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators · improvements over April 2014 and still outpacing...

Documents

Transcript of Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators · improvements over April 2014 and still outpacing...