SIO/CHEM-87: Lecture 7

KNOWLEDGE TO GLOBAL & REGIONAL ACTION: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATIONAND ENERGY ACCESS

V. Ramanathan

FEBRUARY 25, 2015

CLASS PROJECT FOR MARCH 04 CLASS

COME WITH A 6-POINT PLAN TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE TO LESS THAN 2CWARMING

1)INDIVIDUAL LEVEL: WHAT CAN YOU DO TO REDUCE YOUR CARBON FOOT PRINT? ONLY THOSE THAT WILL SCALE UP

TO 0.5 GT OR MORE.

2) CITY TO STATE LEVEL; IMAGINE YOUR SELF AS A MAYOR OR GOVERNORAND COME UP WITH A PLAN

3) WHAT SHOULD WE DO AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL.

EACH STUDENT WILL HAVE 10MTS TO MAKE A PRESENTATION;WTITTEN REPORTS ARE NOT NECESSARY; JUST SUBMIT YOUR POWER POINT:

EMAIL TO RAM AND AMATO

KNOWLEDGE IPCC

National AcademiesNGOs (Universities;

others)

UNFCCCOP

(Governing Body)

Protocols Accords

USA

ChinaAction

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992.

A conference of the parties (COP) is the governing body of an international convention.

Climate has Changed in the Past….. But

CO2 HAS MANY OTHER ROgue COMPANIONS

Source: IPCC, AR5, 2013

PERCENT CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL HEATING FROM 1750-2011

FIGURE SOURCE: TYNAN, UCSD

Illustrative CO2 Emissions Profiles and Corresponding Concentrations

Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, September 2006

3 C

4 C

2 C

4.5 C

5 C

I have assumed aerosols are eliminated; and other GHGs are fixed at 2005 values

.. Investment from Now to 2050: USD 46 Trillion 1.1% of average annual global GDP over the period”, IEA, 2008

Intl Energy Angecy- 2008 Report

•Third of the Food Produced annually does not reach our stomachs

•The carbon footprint of food not eaten is 3.3 Gt of CO2(Eq), the third top emitter of CO2 (equivalent) after China and USA!!

•The Water foot print of food waste is 250 km3

• 1.4 billion hectares of land was used to produce the wasted food… roughly 1/3 of the agriculture land area

•Impacts on biodiversity due to monocropping??

T1B: The top 1 Billion with seemingly unlimited access

to fossil fuels.

.

B3B: The bottom 3 billion lack access to fossil fuels.

TWO SEPARATE BUT CO-DEPENDENT WORLDS

Energy consumption in the two worldsUnits: exa (1018) joules

Year-2009

T4B

B3BDATA FROM: CHAKRAVARTY,… SOCOLOW, ET AL 2009;GRUBLER & PACHAURI;WEO,2013

E_High

20092030

THE CO2 PROBLEM: A T4B PROBLEM

DATA FROM: CHAKRAVARTY.. SOCOLOW ET AL; WEO,2013;GRUBLER AND PACHAURI, ET AL, 2011

27 GT/YR

43 GT/YR

B3BT

4B

ENERGY USE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENTFIGURE SOURCE: TYNAN, UCSD

CO2 HAS MANY OTHER ROgue COMPANIONS

Source: IPCC, AR5, 2013

PERCENT CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL HEATING FROM 1750-2011

Pathway for limiting global warming to 2 C (3.6 F)

Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010

I.Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations below 440ppm (T4B problem)

II. Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants (T4B and B3B problem)

( contributes 40% of current Global warming):

Black Carbon (<2 weeks); Ozone (< 2 months); Methane (<15 years)HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years)

25 to 4000 times more effective than CO2 on 50-100 years scale

Both a problem and an opportunity

A Hybrid Climate Mitigation Strategy for Warming & Sea Level Rise

Simultaneous Mitigation of CO2 and SLCPs is critical for limiting warming below 20C and Sea Level Rise below 1 meter:

Source: Ramanathan and Xu.2010 & HU et al, 2013

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40 YEARS OF PROGRESSIN REDUCING BLACKCARBON BY 90%;EQUIVALENT TO MITIGATING CO2 EMISSIONS BY4 MILLION CARS

Exciting New Idea:Microgrid has UC San Diego Generating 92 Percent Of Its Own Power

What is a Microgrid?Basically a small-scale version of a traditional power grid, a microgrid draws energy from clean sources such as wind and solar power, as well as from conventional technology. A microgrid can be connected to a larger electric grid, but can also work independently. At UC San Diego, power generation is produced from several key sources: solar, a fuel cell and a cogeneration plant. These assets are integrated with energy storage and the sophisticated software that controls it all.