SIO-/CHEM-87: UNDERSTANDING AND PROTECTING THE PLANET

V. Ramanathan, K. Prather and A. EvanUniversity of California at San DiegoJanuary to March 20151 pm to 2.20 pm at NH 101 

Course Schedule 

1-14-2015 Environmental Issues Threatening Sustainability Ramanathan 

1-21-2015 Climate Change Ramanathan 

1-28-2015 Air Pollution, Aerosols & Climate Change Prather 

2-05-2015 The Science of Air Pollution & climate Change Prather

2-12-2015 Land Use Changes, Desertification, Deforestation Evan 

2-19-2015 Impacts on Agriculture, Food Security Evan 

2-26-2015 Knowledge to Action: Sustainable Energy Access Ramanathan 

3-03-2015 Knowledge to Action: Air Pollution & Climate Change Mitigation Ramanathan  

 

SIO 87: UNDERSTANDING AND PROTECTING THE PLANET

Lecture 1:

Environmental Issues Threatening Sustainability

Ram Ramanathan 

Lecture 1: OPTIONAL READING

HARVARD Readings in Sustainability Science and Technology; By Robert W. Kates, Editor CID Working Paper No. 213; December 2010. Preface by Prof W. C. Clark

WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development) 1987. Our common future. New York: Oxford University Press(Brundtland Report)

National Research Council (1999): Our Common Journey (Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, DC).

LECTURE 1: REQUIRED READING

DEFINING PLANETARY BOUNDARIES

A NEW GEOLOGIC ERA: THE ANTHROPOCENE

SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE IS SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INNOVATION IN SUPPORT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT—MEETING HUMAN NEEDS, REDUCING HUNGER AND POVERTY, WHILE MAINTAINING THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS OF THE PLANET;

Kates, Harvard Reader, 2012

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY!!

“HUMANITY HAS THE ABILITY TO MAKE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE—TO ENSURE THAT IT MEETS THE NEEDS OF THE PRESENT WITHOUT COMPROMISING THE ABILITY OF FUTURE GENERATIONS TO MEET THEIR OWN NEEDS.” Our Common Future; The Brundtland Report or WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development). 1987

BASIC DEFINITIONS : SUSTAINABILITY

GOALS FOR A SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONthe primary goals of a transition toward sustainability over the next two generations should be to meet the needs of a much larger but stabilizing human population, to sustain the life support systems of the planet, and to substantially reduce hunger and poverty.

Note the phrase Next Two Generations!!

So, this course is about your future and the opportunities you have as students of this course and UCSD to help shape that future;…. not just for you but all inhabitants of this planet

THIS SEMINAR WILL FOCUS:

ON THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS OF THE PLANET

AND ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:

• HOW ARE WE DOING CURRENTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLANETARY LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS ?

•WHAT SORT OF SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE TO SUSTAIN THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS?

•WHAT STEPS ARE BEING TAKEN BY OUR LEADERS?

WHAT ARE THE EXPERTS SAYING?

ONE FINDING FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AS OF 1999

THIS WARNING WAS LAREGLY IGNORED BUT2015 MAY BE A LAND MARK YEAR !!

I. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

1. HUMAN WELL-BEING (9 CHARACTERISTICS)POPULATIONHEALTH POVERTY AND AFFLUENCEHABITATION AND TRANSPORTATIONPEACE AND SECURITYENERGY AND MATERIALSFOOD AND FIBERWATER AND SANITATIONDISASTERS

2. PROTECTING THE EARTH’S LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMSGLOBAL CLIMATE AND STRATOSPHERIC OZONELANDATMOSPHEREWATER OCEANSBIODIVERSITYECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Ref: Kates, 2010

3.HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS

Human Dominion VS STEWARDSHIP Are we part of or apart from the Natural World? TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS For that which is common to the greatest number has the least care bestowed upon it: Aristotle

Limits to Growth: Success in human endeavor is measured in growth: Bigger is BetterExponential growth in: Population; Food production; industrialization; resource depletion; pollution Growth has limits

GAIA (Lovelock)living organisms of earth do not just adapt to the planet, but act upon the planet to make it fit for life, keeping its temperature and atmosphere appropriate for its inhabitants

Ref: Kates, 2010

• THE PLANETS ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY STABLE FOR THE PAST 10000 YEARS

• HOLOCENE: WITNESSED HUMAN CIVILZATIONS ARISE, DEVELOP AND THRIVE

• A NEW ERA HAS ARISEN: THE ANTHROPOCENE

The Great Acceleration:The DRIVERS

THE IMPACTS EQUATION

ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE

2005

Primary Reference Material on Eco Systems Assessmenthttp://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf

• More than 60 percent of the area projected to be urban in 2030 has yet to be built. Most of the growth is expected to happen in small and medium-sized cities, not in megacities.

Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2012) Cities and Biodiversity Outlook. Montreal, 64 pages.

http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve/Education/ReactiveN/NitrogenCycling.swf

The eutrophication of the Potomac River is evident from the bright green water, caused by a dense bloom ofC yanobacteria.Source: Wikipedia

IPCC-AR5 Chapter 6, Figure 6.2

AQUATIC DEAD ZONES(NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY)

Eutrophication: Excess Nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrients) from rivers, sewage, atmospheric deposition. Creates Anoxic conditions

Algal blooms in LaJolla

Air Pollution as example

Disease emergenceEutrophication and HypoxiaFisheries collapse(Fig 11; Page 12)Species Introduction and lossRegional climate Change (Sahelian Drought)

Race to the finish line!!

Outdoor Air Pollution4 million die each year;

about 100 million tons of crops destroyed

November 14 2006 December 21 2001

Ramanathan 2007

NASA-MODIS

Indoor air pollution kills 4 million annually(WHO 2014)Outdoor kills another 3 million

Ozone and PM induced crop loss over India: 1998-2008Burney and Ramanathan (2014)

Particles in the air (aerosols including natural dust) influenceCloud formation and Rainfall/Snowfall in number of ways

Intercept sunlight and cause dimming at surface; leads to reduced evaporation and decreased precipitation.

Nucleates more cloud drops and suppress precipitation

Nucleates more ice crystals(dust) and enhance precipitation

Soot absorbs sunlight heats the air and some times evaporates clouds

Observed Trends in Summer Rainfall: 1950 to 2002

The Sahelian Drought

The Weakening Indian Monsoon

N-S Shift in Asian rainfall

Major Rainfall Shifts during the last 50 YearsChung and Ramanathan 2006

RECORD DROUGHT IN CALIFORNIA

PHOTO CREDIT: DINA SPECTOR, BUSINESS INSIDER, FEB 26, 2014

FOLSOM LAKE; July 20, 2011 FOLSOM LAKE; JAN 16, 2014

3. Wildfires

Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet

January Issue of Science 2015 Authors: Will Steffen1,2, Katherine Richardson3, Johan Rockström1, Sarah Cornell1, Ingo Fetzer1, Elena M. Bennett4, R. Biggs1,5, Stephen R. Carpenter6, Wim de Vries7, Cynthia A. de Wit8, Carl Folke1,9, Dieter Gerten10, Jens Heinke10, Georgina M. Mace11, Linn M. Persson12, Veerabhadran Ramanathan13, B. Reyers14, Sverker Sörlin15

Planetary boundaries [Rockstrom et al, 2009]

Planetary boundaries [Steffen et al, 2015]

IMPACTS ON HUMAN DEVELOPMENT: SETTING THE BOUNDARIES

Photo:Ramanathan, 2009

Mukteshwar, Central Himalayas, India

THE BOTTOM THREE BILLION WORLD

4 million die every year from smoke pollution