SHIFT mag [n°4] - Europe 2057

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Europe 2057EUROPE

TALKS TOBRUSSELS

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Breaking the boundaries of

communication

CONTENT

> 20EU 2057 scenario

> 18Global

Concord

> 16Rond-Point

Schuman

> 14China 2057

> 12Free hug

10 >

Walk of Fake

> 06From regional to global peace

> 04Climate migrants

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State of the Union

address


Victor FleurotSHIFT MagEditorBrussels

EDITORIALIf one had asked the EU’s founding fathers to draw a picture of Europe in 2007, it would probably have featured square-jawed robots and imposing computers, in a city looking like one giant, ultra-modern factory.

How could they have foreseen the revolution of micro-design brought about by Japanese companies in the 80s, the even more groundbreaking birth of the internet, wireless communication or satellite navigation systems?

Had they looked through a crystal ball, these visionary humanists would probably have felt a mixture of pride and apprehension at seeing how young Europeans live today. They would have marvelled at the frightening range of possibilities enjoyed by a generation that can go online to book low-cost fl ights from Barcelona to Warsaw, plan a city break or use dating websites.

Well, what are the chances we would be equally impressed and frightened by the world in 2057?

Do you really think Dolly the sheep was a minor accident in a dead-end street of history? Are you ready to face An Inconvenient Truth?

To mark the end of the EU’s 50th anniversary, the fourth issue of SHIFT Mag gathers the dreams and visions of talented and forward-looking Europeans on what the world could look like in 50 years.

The result is a mixture of science-fi ction and serious predictions, with hope and fear closely intertwined as we review the challenges ahead. We may be bound to the same fate as the planet’s previous tenants, our old friends the dinosaurs, but at least we can laugh and cry about it.

Tipik Communication – A SWORD Group Company.Avenue de Tervueren 270 – 1150 Brussels – Belgium.

Free quarterly publication (cannot be sold). Published by Tipik Communication. Reproduction in any form is prohibited without prior consent. The views expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent those of SHIFT Mag.

[ N° 4 ] > SHIFTmag 03

SHIFT MagEUROPE TALKS TO BRUSSELSAvenue de Tervueren 2701150 Brussels – Belgiumwww.shiftmag.eu

Publisher: Juan [email protected]

Editor: Victor FLEUROT • T. +32 2 235 56 [email protected]

Contributors to this issue: Laurent BEDUNEAU WANG (Paris), Laura DAGG (Paris), Jelena DZANKIC (Cambridge), Tânia FELICIO (Bruges), Solange GUO CHATELARD (Paris), Brieuc HUBIN (Brussels), Marjorie JOUEN (Paris), Donald MCFADDEN (Santa Ana), Susanne NIES (Paris/Brussels), Laurent VAN BRUSSEL (Brussels)Illustrations: Mi Ran COLLIN, Brieuc HUBIN, Ron SAINT-CLAIR, Wim TACITURN, François TACOEN, Emmanuel TREPANTPhotography: iStockphoto, Eric LEMONNEProduction & coordination: Nadine [email protected] & Graphics: Tipik StudioPrinted by: Van Ruys, BrusselsAdministration & subscription: Gabriela OLSSON • T. + 32 2 235 56 44 [email protected] advertise in SHIFT Mag contact: Guy DE SAN • T. +32 2 235 56 [email protected]

SHIFT Mag • 2007


The night was dark on Alba when Major Juan Moreno got back to the PFE (Peace Force in Europe) temporary camp. The day had been testing for his unit. Thanks to their laser and electro guns, which had paralysed the belligerents for a few minutes, they had managed to keep the two groups separated. But they had arrived too late to prevent human losses: seven people had died and 52 were injured.

March 15, 2057, would be marked with a black stone, as the most deadly day since the beginning of the confl ict between the Dutch and Cypriot refugees. This was without counting the fi nancial losses calculated by the analysts: € 800 000, i.e. € 400 000 for medical attention, € 150 000 for the unit of 100 soldiers, € 100 000 for damaged and used equipment, € 100 000 for civil damage to property, € 30 000 for economic depreciation and € 20 000 for deterioration caused to landscape. This operation of policing was increasingly expensive and impatience was growing among members of the European Parliament.

Juan Moreno thought that the 100th anniversary of the USE, the Union of the States of Europe, would soon be celebrated with emphasis. But the situation hardly lent itself to rejoicing.

Admittedly, in his unit, the women and men from almost all the 48 member-entities (Nation states and Autonomies) got on well. They were qualifi ed experts and shared the same peace objective for the continent, thanks to the effi cient training received at the high European School for Civilian and Military Peace in Brussels.

Unfortunately, it was not the same elsewhere. Both chambers of the European Parliament had failed to agree to vote for the budget and the new

laws. The intercultural tensions were endless and everything was prone to quarrels and trials as soon as collective choices had to be made. However, eff orts had been made to improve mutual understanding between people. For 30 years, all Europeans had been learning Engleur from a very young age, in addition to their maternal language. This name was suggested by the English government, to make it clear that their beautiful language had little in common with this "basic common basis" of 3 000 words, which was gradually expanded with new expressions borrowed from other languages.

As regards the confl ict between the Dutch and Cypriots, all had started in the wake of a major plan to introduce the climate change policy adopted by the Netherlands in 2015. The government had fi rst explained that they were confi dent in the future because of the country’s historical experience with water control. However, by 2050 the Dutch had to admit that the mechanism was insuffi cient and far too costly. They had to concede large rural and semi-urban areas to the sea to concentrate on rescuing the cities. This led to the plan of displacing 5 million people over 10 years.

A Stock Exchange of the territories was organised to encourage voluntary

refugees to settle in a more accessible rural area. The French Massif Central and the Western Alps were already largely repopulated with former inhabitants of the Belgian and French Flanders evacuated in 2035, and Italians from the Po delta. Scandinavia had become too cold due to the progressive disappearance of the Gulf Stream. The Dutch migrants chose a forest region in Transylvania, which had just acquired its European Autonomy statute together with Galicia, Brittany and Padania.

In 2020, the Common Agricultural Policy had been suppressed, which quickly led to the disappearance of mid-range mountain farms. Those in higher mountains were still benefi ting from comfortable environmental aid, while those in the fertile plains remained profi table. Subsequently, large forests developed in-between for industrial use.

The 500 000 Dutch established as a colony and quickly set up a forestry development programme as well as a master plan for their cities. However, it failed to take into account the presence of 100 000 Cypriot refugees residing there since the end of the 2040s. They had been driven out by the persistent drought on their island: rain had not fallen between 2045 and 2049.

04 SHIFTmag > [ N° 4 ]

EUROPE 2057

CLIMATE MIGRANTS: DUTCH AND CYPRIOT REFUGEES IN TRANSYLVANIA

Marjorie JouenAdviser, Notre Europe think tankParisFrench

Marjorie was a member of the Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission in charge of territorial and social issues. Besides her work with Notre Europe, she is currently a member of the President’s Cabinet at the Committee of the Regions.


EUROPE TALKS TO BRUSSELS


FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TOPIC, VISIT:http://ec.europa.eu/comm/cdp/scenario/index_en.htm http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/climate-changes-2007-ar4-fr.htmhttp://www.mnp.nl/en/publications/ /TheeffectsofclimatechangeintheNetherlands.htmlhttp://www.iucn.org/places/medoffice/CDCambio_climatico/contenido/D/PDF/CC_d5a.pdfhttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/com/2007/com2007_0722en01.pdf

The desalination units built 40 years ago were regularly breaking down due to the lack of public investment. Although luxury tourism was maintained by the seaside, all budget hotels had to close, creating large redundancies. Agriculture and livestock-farming had almost completely disappeared. But unlike the Dutch, Cypriot migration was carried out by small groups and the majority of the refugees were not farmers, but tradesmen.

The relations between both communities strained rather quickly. Use of the land, building authorisations, working methods: all was liable to confl ict. The spark came from the law that the Dutch had tried to pass regarding the closure of shops on Sundays, for religious reasons, and at night, in order to save energy for glasshouse cultivations. They had launched a legal process within the USE Supreme Court and the Cypriots counter-attacked with an "immaterial communications war". The fi rst death of the confl ict was recorded in early December 2056.

The Transylvanian government, unable to restore order, requested the help of the PFE. Fifty cultural mediators were fi rst rushed in, but they quickly acknowledged the futility of their task because the ethnic issue concealed powerful economic interests. The United Wood Company, a multinational holding based in Rotterdam,

was opposed to the Inter-Mediterranean Credit Bank, which was well-established

in Nicosia and the Middle East.

It was then decided to instigate a 50 million intervention for a

month, mobilising 200 men. On the 15th day, things did not improve and, in

the headquarters, testing of the new climatic disturbance mechanisms (by making the snow fall

for 3 weeks on the region) was being considered. It would certainly be hazardous, but would perhaps ease tensions on the ground.

The French Massif Central and the Western Alps were already largely repopulated with former inhabitants of the Belgian and French Flanders evacuated in 2035

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EUROPE 2057

THE EU FROM REGIONAL TO GLOBAL PEACE

Stars can be classifi ed according to the luminosity eff ects found in their spectral lines, which are determined by the surface gravity. They range from hypergiants (the most luminous stars) to white dwarfs, thought to be the fi nal evolutionary state of all stars, gradually radiating away their energy and cooling down. The EU seems to be a rising star as far as peace and security

are concerned. The question is if it will become a hypergiant or a white dwarf in the next 50 years.

In the 50th year of its existence, the EU is celebrating the achievement of regional peace, prosperity and democ-racy. This is often a forgotten side of the European integration process, and probably the main sign of its success. Indeed, very often the media and

Euro-sceptics take peace for granted and end up focusing solely on the shortcomings of the integration proc-ess. But the reality is that peace has been achieved in the EU and almost throughout the whole of Europe. The challenge now is to expand this region of peace to the rest of the world.

Indeed, the EU wants to go global as a promoter of peace, stability,


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democracy and human rights. The key EU stakeholders have commit-ted to this new challenge: UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband, in his very publicised address to the College of Europe, called for an open, global Europe, and for the EU to become a leader in “addressing the great global challenges we face”, concluding they provide a “new raison d’être for the European Union”.

As far as crisis management is con-cerned, with the EU quickly developing its response capacity, the new motto of the European Commission is “no forgotten crisis”. All over the world, “from Georgia to Myanmar, from the DRC to Peru, the EU must live up to its goal of global security”, as stated by EU Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner.

European media seem to be very keen on stressing how the EU is a “dwarf” in security next to the US, but if one takes a closer look, the fact is that the past 15 years have seen the capacities of the Union developing at an amaz-ing pace. Since 2003, no less than 16 civilian and military missions have been carried out in the Balkans, the Middle East, Asia and Africa. The new Treaty of Lisbon brings major changes in the security context with important implications for the EU’s expanding global role, such as the double-hatted High Representative for Foreign Aff airs

and Security Policy and a single legal personality for the EU (crucial for its ability to sign international agree-ments). If the EU continues developing its external and security instruments at the same pace, it can be expected to become a hypergiant in this fi eld, with global reach and eff ectiveness.

But today’s security agenda has enlarged in unexpected ways. Issues of energy, climate change and natural resources are becoming priorities on the European security agenda. The role of the EU in world peace and secu-rity is directly linked to these priorities and on the way it chooses to address them, not only through crisis manage-ment instruments, but through its diplomatic capacity in infl uencing the new international system for the next 50 years.

Faced with a clear crisis in traditional “intergovernmental” multilateralism, the EU has committed to eff ective multilateralism, and supports the UN in this endeavour. But this seems to be a buzzword with no practical signifi -cance, as the EU itself is using diff erent forms of cooperation to tackle govern-ance issues (and more often than not to address its own strategic interests). Instead of multilateralism, multipolar-ity is taking centre stage. And the EU, while committing to eff ective multilat-eralism, is strategically using bilat-eral cooperation (namely for energy security), as it acknowledges the new coming powers.

The European project is based on the acknowledgment that states can-not govern alone “problems without passports” and that such problems are regional, if not global, in nature. In this sense, the EU’s stated strategy is to encourage other regions of the world to develop cooperation struc-tures and to cooperate with the UN at

the global level. But in practice, the EU chooses to hold bilateral summits with Brazil instead of MERCOSUR, or China and India separately, failing to follow a consistent pattern in its promotion of regional cooperation and eff ective multilateralism. Moreover, the EU itself is proving to be a multipolar system, with decision-making often depend-ent on bargaining within a group of European powers who fail to show a truly unifi ed voice.

The EU’s role in a more secure world in 50 years depends on its ability to be coherent with its commitments and harmonise them with an increasingly multipolar world. The EU must use its soft power to convince old and new global powers to commit to multi-lateralism (because it is in their own interest to do so).

The perfect combination of strength and dialogue, of security capacities (moving at an incredibly fast pace) and soft power as a model of regional peace and prosperity, can lead the rising star to establish itself as a hy-pergiant. If the right balance between these two dimensions of its external policies fails, we might just see the supernova turn into a white dwarf, with no energy to expand its light to the rest of the galaxy.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TOPIC, VISIT:http://www.iss.europa.eu/chaillot/chai100.pdf

http://www.iss.europa.eu/chaillot/chai78.pdf

http://www.irri-kiib.be/paperegm/ep16.pdf

http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jcmkts/v45y2007ip768-769.html

> Tânia Felício Project ResearcherUNU-CRIS, BrugesPortuguese



The reality is that peace has been achieved in the EU and almost throughout the whole of Europe. The challenge now is to expand this region of peace to the rest of the world


EUROPE 2057

THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS, 25 MARCH 2057


Most distinguished Members of Parliament it is a privilege to deliver the State of the Union address on this historic day: the 100th anniversary of the Rome Treaty. The European idea stretches back into the past, into the collective consciousness of our peoples for centuries. Yet it is the embryonic and profoundly symbolic cooperation of the Coal and Steel Community and the later European Economic Community that have led to the development of our vast democratic union encompassing over 35 member states today. A hundred years of peace can now rival the hundred years’ war to which our continent was so accustomed.

FROM MID-LIFE CRISIS TO MATURITY

Indeed, we can look back with serenity on the “mid-life crisis” of all those years ago. The failure of the fi rst Constitutional treaty served as an important lesson. Two decades later the constitutional idea emerged again. Increased mobility had fostered greater mutual understanding and solidarity. The revolution in communications and translation technology had broken down barriers between our peoples. Pan-European debates, television, European political parties and exchange programmes had created a veritable European public space so lacking in the early years.

The second European convention, comprised of elected representatives, with the aim of drawing up our Constitution has been the greatest exercise in trans-national democracy ever undertaken. The European referendum (double majority of states and peoples) and the high levels of participation and large majority in favour of the Constitution have been a source of pride. Our institutional

structure continues to be a source of strength. Decisions are made smoothly by qualifi ed majority voting. Unanimity has been consigned to the past. Our Constitution enshrined a new method of political organisation, which maintained many of the unique features of our political endeavour: a supra-national Parliament, the Council representing the states, the Commission as government, the Court of Justice and Central Bank. As a federation of nation states we have organised our political life effi ciently while preserving national and local identities.

EXTENDING THE FRONTIERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE EUROSPHERE

By far the greatest success of the EU has been the reunifi cation of Europe. However, further enlargement was accompanied by the creation of the Eurosphere. For those states interested in the advantages of the single market without the political, social and economic integration, this was the best solution. Our shared values as expressed in the Charter of fundamental rights could no longer be à la carte. Those countries that did not subscribe to the political goals of the EU were invited to join the Eurosphere. They have access to the single market and maintain a privileged relationship with the EU. The African Union, the countries of the Middle East, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Switzerland are all members of the enlarged single market. From Brussels to Bamako, the euro is the currency of trade and the norms are European.

LEADING THE ETHICAL GLOBALISATION FRONT

The acceleration of the globalisation process in the 1990s has continued

apace. Far from being left by the wayside as many critics were predicting then, the EU has held its own in this new global confi guration. Demands for a decent standard of health care, of housing, of work and above all a yearning for dignity were the concerns of the time. Reform of international institutions such as the WTO with extended competences in the area of the environment and labour law, has led to more equitable competition. New regional actors such as South America, India, Africa and China have assumed their place and their responsibilities in this world order.

Europe, as a model of norm-based regional integration, where social justice is of prime importance, has been the spearhead of the ethical globalisation movement. It promotes a basic ethic of minimum values, attitudes and standards to which all nations can subscribe. The EU can be proud of diff using the principles of fair globalisation to its partner countries while maintaining its openness to world trade.

We have come a long way from coal and steel to green energy. The decision to reduce emissions has paid off . The global ETS system includes all our major partners and has been implemented by the World Environmental Organisation. We have

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Neither superpower, nor superstate, the EU has developed outside the categories of times past. The EU was built by the vanquished. This historical humility has protected us from the folly of empire

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> Laura DaggDirector of a pro-european associationParisIrish


a modern agricultural policy, which allows us to combine food security, environmental and energy concerns.

The European prototype of trans-national democracy has withstood the test of time and is envied elsewhere. Cultural and educational policies have been the success of recent years. Respect for cultural and linguistic diversity and the fostering of European culture within and beyond the Union have been our priorities.

EUROPEAN DIPLOMACY IN ACTION

We are also celebrating today fi fty years of European diplomacy. We have moved from a shared to a common diplomacy and foreign policy. Reform of the UN was the occasion for European representation in an enlarged Security Council. This has given the EU the coherence it lacked. From questions of nuclear proliferation to global warming and civil war the EU now has a single position and can if necessary back this up with by force when sanctioned by a UN mandate.

Notwithstanding, the EU has never been a predatory power. Defying all historical precedent of empires, it has remained a peaceful power respecting human rights and international law. The divorce of human rights from security seen at the beginning of this century in a climate of global terror has rescinded. The resolution of the confl ict in the Middle East and the reduction of poverty and fl ourishing of democracy in this region have been the focus of European diplomatic eff orts.

Neither super power, nor super state, the EU has developed, outside of the categories of times past. The EU was built by the vanquished. This historical humility has protected us from the folly of empire. It is a model of regional integration; a federation of nation states sharing the same ideals, capable of infl uencing the course of history for the better. The institutions created 100 years ago are the secret of its success. Europe’s belief in the values of social justice, balanced economic development and human dignity has made it a beacon of human rights and paragon of economic success. There is much to be proud of on our 100th anniversary and hopefully for the next 100 years to come.

VIVE L’UNION EUROPÉENNE! VIVE L’EUROPE!


FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT:http://www.realizingrights.org/ www.mouvement-europeen.eu (FR)www.taurillon.org

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EUROPE 2057

WALK OF FAKE: WELCOME TO CLONE ISLAND…

Brussels Literary Review24 October 2057

The 19th century saw the opening of the fi rst waxwork museums: Madame Tussauds in London (1835) and Musée Grévin in Paris (1882). In the 20th cen-tury, real-life lookalikes became a me-dia phenomenom. Thanks to Professor Ingemann and his clone island of Monte Caro, the 21st century has gone one step further… or backwards – where mankind is a powerless witness, history alone can judge.

Eugenic cloning eliminated many he-reditary diseases. Therapeutic cloning allowed us to address organs shortage. That was 35 years ago. Ten years later, just as Jesus would have multiplied bread and fi sh, human beings started to repro-duce their children to infi nity in the name of “demographic emergency”: human cloning was born.

The commercial cloning project launched by Professor Ingemann goes further – clearly too far according to Spanish human rights champion Victoria Delahoya. “Mr Ingemann thinks he is a genius, able to control the elements. He thinks he is making the world better but he is only fl attering his own vanity at the expense of these “jet-slaves” who are human beings above all! We can’t remain silent when slave drivers become kings in the kingdom of human rights. The international community contents itself with condemning. People have to rise up against this!”

It is without a doubt the most unlikely scientifi c experience in recent memory. Secretly developed from 2029 in a laboratory located in Akademgorodok, Russia, this project materialised fi ve years ago when Delilah Romanovic, a Chechen multimillionaire businesswoman who made her fortune in space hotels and tourism, laid the foundation stone of the man-made archipelago of Monte Caro. At fi rst sight, it was just another internation-al real-estate venture, after Palm Islands and The World located off Dubaï’s coast line, The Pearl in Qatar, Federation Island in the Black Sea at Stochi, Russia, or La Belgique de papa1 in the North Sea.

Rising above the bay of Monaco, the Monte Caro project has everything a virtual world would, except that it is con-crete reality. Some sort of “Real Second Life”! The island is indeed in every re-spect artifi cial and exclusively populated with clones. But they are not just any clones. Nobody knows who they really are, certainly not their creator, maybe not even themselves. Only their assumed life, stolen identity and conditioned person-ality are common knowledge. They are called James Brown, Jacques Brel, Jeff Buckley or Jean-Paul Belmondo. They have the true features of Lady Diana or Diana Ross. They impersonate to perfection Madonna or Diego Maradona. They speak with the witty eloquence of Winston Chrurchill or Muhammad Ali. But they will never do anything else other than what they were taught to do: pretending to be.

Although the ressemblance is striking, only physical mimicry is natural. All the rest goes beyond cloning. Years of daily individual coaching and psychological support, nutrional programmes and per-manent aftercare are necessary to make the copy and the original appear as one and the same thing.

Elvis “Vegas Crooner” Presley tells us: “I was not The King when I was born but Elvis Presley, the little country boy from Mississippi, wasn’t either. He and I both became The King. But our life stories are diff erent. I’m a laboratory product. Elvis has been dominating my daily life since the fi rst day, from morning till night. But I’m not complaining here. Today I’m 40 years old, I weigh 270 pounds, I’m living in Graceland, I sing like a god and thank godness I’m still alive. I’m The King man! [laughter]. More seriously, the image is one thing and the human being is anoth-er... It’s very hard to live up to an image, especially when it is somebody else’s.”

That Elvis is not alone. He mixes with three other “Elvis” on Monte Caro: Elvis the “romantic male lead” who works like a dog every Sunday night on the recreated stage of The Ed Sullivan Show, Elvis the “singing soldier”and Elvis “King Creole”, the actor. But he is no excep-tion. From Bob Marley to Georgie Best, celebrities with fl uctuating careers have multiple clones.

“No clone on Monte Caro is a living fi gure. Some people say we are violating human rights, others argue we are abusing the

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Laurent van BrusselLiterary critic, Brussels Literary ReviewBrussels International DistrictBelgian

Born in 1982, he has witnessed 21st century Europe from its embryonic state. When he was 18, celebrating the millenium, he believed that the worst predicted by his folks for him and the rest of the world was just frustated ex-hippies’ bile. Today more than ever, he is a real fan of the sixties!

I was not The King when I was born but Elvis Presley, the little country boy from Mississippi, wasn’t either. He and I both became The King

SHIFTmag > [ N° 4 ]

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world’s cultural heritage. Whatever they say, we are here to lead people through a daydream fi rst. Do you realise what it means for today’s crowds to physically witness or even inter-act with the stars from the past? Something fake can be true. I trust people will make the distinction”, Professor Ingemann explains.

Everyone will soon have the opportunity to experience and judge Monte Caro for themselves. The island is due to open its doors to the public in less than six years. It off ers its visitors diff erent possibilities. Two attractions have already caught the public’s imagination on the web. The Dig up the idol pass – from 2 500 to 10 000 UD2– will allow its lucky owner to spend an hour, a day or even a week with the celebrity of his choice. The Back in time pass – from 1 000 to 5 000 UD – will give access to a wide range of spectacular reenact-ments, throwing the crowd into some of the most

defi ning moments in history: the Hilary Clinton assassination, the Woodstock Festival, the Rumble in the Jungle fi ght, etc.

How many clones will the island gather? How was all this made possible? Would it have happened if the Monaco had not been privatised? Who are the brains behind this race for DNA? The Monte Caro mystery remains unresolved.

Did you like the story? Feel like booking a place at Monte Caro? Ready to pack your bags with your favourite Nirvana t-shirt, Mein Kampf to ask him why, a copy of Velazquez ‘s Feast of Bacchus or the stolen snapshots of Jim Morrison’s dead body in his bath to have them autographed? Then we have some good and bad news for you. The bad news is that all these words are sheer invention. The good news is that you can read all about it in the upcoming bestseller The Monte Caro Project on sale at your local bookshop from the start of the 2058 liter-ary season.



1 Old-fashioned Belgium: La Belgique de papa is a real-life museum dedicated to Belgium’s history from 1830 to 2030 – a nice reconversion for this complex made famous worldwide for having welcomed the fi rst off shore football World Cup in 2018

2 universal dollar = 0.91 (previous) euro

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EUROPE 2057

FREE HUG As a tribute to the great tradition of Belgian comic books, SHIFT Mag revisits 1970s-style BD (comics in French) for an ingenuous take on life in 50 years. English translation under the original pictures.


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In 2057, Europe will be celebrating its fi rst centenary anniversary since its formal “union”, the United States will almost be reaching its third since the war of independence, and China, as a multi-ethnic civilisation organised under a centralised authority, will be commemorating its twenty-third.

In other words, China has experienced more than two thousand years of irregular, but adaptive, bureaucratic governance, sustained by a unifying and evolving cosmological view of the world. The radical but interim Maoist experience, and its seemingly opaque legacy, is an exceptional chapter in China’s extensive history.

In order to understand China’s development over the next 50 years, it is crucial to account for its problematic and piecemeal adjustment from a “cosmological” understanding of

the world to a “rational-political” understanding of both its internal and external aff airs since the end of the 19th century.

Contrary to dominant interpretations, China does not have an internal or external “political” agenda in the conventional Western sense – inherited from the Greek concept of “polis”. Internally, the large majority of Chinese “citizens” do not wish to, and will not be able to, take over and handle the aff airs of the country; externally, China’s political class does not want to have a leadership role on the international stage, like the USA have held since 1945.

If China is closing in on the top position on the world’s podium by 2057, it will be the result of successful commercial and historically driven

internal policies for unity (currently achieved through material progress and a reassertion of Chinese identity). Furthermore, if China takes on a “political role” once in this position, it will be the result of external demands from the former Western leaders leaving the “global offi ce” that they have largely created for themselves.

Although China’s entry into the next century is not pure accidental spontaneity, it is also marked by an absence of a premeditated “political model” guiding internal and external developments.

However, the next 50 years are the equivalent of two generations: 2007–2032, 2032–2057, and China, as mentioned above, does have

ambitions. The fi rst is an economic ambition to develop and improve common living

EUROPE 2057

CHINA 2057


If China achieves global status, it may well fi nd the reigns of global governance passed down from the USA a tad unfamiliar, partly constraining, but after all manageable

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standards. The second is concentrated around the re-construction of Chinese identity.

China’s economic ambitions can be summed up in two parts. First, China wants to increase its GDP. This ambition is doubly signifi cant, as China has only recently begun to solve the chronic state of material scarcity it was subjected to under Maoist communism. According to current trends, China is likely to overtake the US between 2035 and 2045.

The second is linked to the evolution of the capitalist paradigm. Changes throughout the 20th century have revealed that economic and fi nancial creation of value is not enough. Environmental and social priorities, as well as how to integrate them into a comprehensive economic context, will become just as important.

Part of China’s economic ambition might consist in integrating environmental and social constraints to overtake the Western capitalist model as it has been developed over the last two centuries. The aim of developing a specifi c Chinese economic model has been an unremitting ambition from Mao Zedong to Hu Jintao. The former adapted Marxism-Leninism

to the Chinese context, and the later currently

emphasises social

harmony when Western countries are promoting sustainable development.

Perhaps the one unrelenting aspect of the Chinese economy in the long-term to grasp and retain is its ability to “adapt”. The Chinese economic model might consist precisely in not having a model.

This brings us to the second ambition: identity. China will progressively bridge the economic gap with other industrialised countries and seek to solve internal tensions linked to its eff ective unity and identity. However, historically, Chinese identity or “Chinese citizenship” has not been defi ned in the modern sense: the individual’s relationship with the sovereign state. Indeed, how clear and accomplished are the parameters of the Chinese state today? To when can we trace back the origins of the modern Chinese state? 1912? 1949? 1978?

Political legitimacy throughout the ages in China has derived from a cosmological concept of concord and unity between social and natural phenomena of the world (what the Chinese call “all under heaven”). In other words, rather than strive to implement and respect a specifi c “political form” (democracy, monarchy,

republic, etc.), what conferred meaning to centralised political power was an ability

to ensure unity and coherence to a large, loose and diverse civilisation. “Synchronisation” was the key term, not “political sovereignty”.

In 2057, one of China’s most important tasks will be to provide a sense of coherence and unity to a rapidly changing internal and external environment. It should not be to implement a specifi c national or international political project, but to optimise its adaptability to a changing and unpredictable environment. If China achieves global status, it may well fi nd the reigns of global governance passed down from the USA a tad unfamiliar, partly constraining, but after all manageable.

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FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT:http://www.asiasociety.org/speeches/lardy.html

[ N° 4 ] > SHIFTmag

> Solange Guo Chatelard M.Phil. Comparative Politics Institut d'Etudes Politiques, ParisBritish/French

"The dictionary is based on the hypothesis – obviously an unproven one – that languages are made up of equivalent synonyms."Jorge Luis Borges

>> Laurent Beduneau Wang

Partner, Update the World agencyParisFrench

Laurent is chief editor and co-author of Is China a fi nancial giant? (in French, Vuibert, Paris, 2006) and The French fi nancial system within the EU (in Chinese, Faguo jinrong tixie, Jinli guanli chubanshe, Economics and Management Publishing House, Beijing, 2007).


It has been almost 60 years now that I have run the small newspaper shop on Avenue d’Auderghem, close to Rond-Point Schuman in Brussels. I was born here, in 1967, above the shop, in a small two-bedroom fl at, growing up with two sisters and one brother. My father worked in the famous Brussels brewery of Albert Frère. My mother was a secretary, fi rst in the brewery where she met my father, then in the High Commission, and fi nally in the Council of the EU.

Reading this short biography, you could come to the conclusion that my life has been a boring, lengthy succession of non-events: a person who never moved, spending all her life in the same place, the same street and the same job, which, in addition, is merely a few metres away from the fl at where she was born. But you would be wrong! My life has been all but boring: I never moved, but everything was always moving hastily around me! The cranes constructing the Berlaymont building have been my babysitters, with the noise of hammers everywhere a permanent concert. There are a few unbelievable places in the world, where world history just happens. And the only obligation for the happy few born right there is to stay, to observe, to witness. Thus, they themselves become part of history.

Today, a spring day in 2057, I will close my shop and attend the celebrations of the 100th anniversary of my dear European Union. In fact, I still call it the EU, but the name was given up some decades ago. I am old now, and sticking to old words reassures me, a bit like our French neighbours who continue to count in euros, 15 years after its replacement by the Transatlantic! They call my dear EU the TU now, the Transatlantica Union.

On this March morning I follow the beautiful royal horses parading along my street, heading for Rond-Point Schuman. Lippizans, they stem from the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, and were once off ered by Vienna in the groundless hope that Vienna could overtake Brussels as European capital. It was useless marketing, but it has made my life richer, and happier, as I now meet these wonderful creatures once a day in the street I have never left.

I remember how the place looked for the EU’s 50th anniversary celebrations: huge buildings all around, the Berlaymont, the Consilium, the Lipsius, and the wonderfully named Caprice des Dieux, home to the European Parliament. Not to mention all those European offi cials, nicely dressed, always serious and in a hurry. With only one exception at that time: my friend from Holland selling roses on the corner of rue Froissart. I always thought that these fl owers put some colour and emotion in these somewhat busy European lives.

EUROPE 2057

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Today, they have disappeared. Rond-Point Schuman in its very centre has become a famous rose garden, sponsored by the Foundation Konrad Adenauer. Adenauer, as everybody knew (at least 50 years ago), raised roses and loved these fl owers originating from Persia more than anything in the world. Thus, in its centre, “Schuman”, as we locals call the roundabout, became beautiful, and it has helped enamoured Europeans from all over the current 57 member states to meet here and even marry.

But look all around now, and it is hard to see the sky. The Berlaymont building had been redesigned as a

Lego tower, with the option to add on as many fl oors as you want, year after year. But after fl oor 120, the skyscraper became slightly unstable and the heirs

of Lucien de Vattel decided to stop the experiment for the

sake of European civil servants’ life expectation. New buildings have emerged like mushrooms, helicopters fl y around. A beautiful railway station, inspired by the Berlin Lehrter Bahnhof, has a permanent scent of perfume, distilled from the roses above.

The biggest building is without a doubt the Twin Towers, which today symbolize Transatlantica. The “Transatlantic Twins”, as we call them.

Nobody would have imagined the Americans joining the European Union. The day they arrived, in 2040, they simply said: “Well, we like your European diplomatic innovation. You accepted the Russians, the Israelis, the Turks, Iran; you negotiate with the central Asians, you included Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria; you believe that the cradle of humanity lies in today’s Europe - with Greece, Egypt, Persia - and we feel more and more like Europeans forgotten somewhere in a far-away place. We are tired of quarreling with France, questioning ourselves about the looming power of China. We have everything in common. The UN proved to be useless, so let’s just give regional solidarity a broader dimension.”

Instead of fulfi lling the various requirements for joining, they brought the Statue of Liberty back across the Atlantic, which France had once off ered, and you can admire it now somewhere in the middle of the roses.

Enlargement is no longer an issue. Every year, on average, we receive a new member. Some cooperate more than others. The requirements are basic shared values, a common project, a desire to live together. Enough, they say. More than enough, I think. When I grew up, I was naturally narrow-minded, frightened when I met foreigners. Which is perfectly normal: prejudices, for me, are nothing more than hypotheses for transitory ignorant people. Once the transition fi nished, you become tolerant. The only prerequisite, though, is lifelong curiosity.

Do you really fi nd my life boring? Thanks to the European Union I became – completely by chance – a global citizen! I know Russians, Americans, Iranians, Egyptians, Poles, Germans – they all come in the morning to buy their newspaper, they like my old-fashioned shop, they like me as if I was a piece of antique furniture from another epoch. I have a table in a corner of my shop, and I off er a cup of coff ee to each new member state’s nationals the day of their arrival. Once they even wrote in the Herald Tribune that the process of TU integration is only accomplished for a member state the day its representatives have a coff ee in aunt Lizbeth’s shop. Today, on this spring morning in 2057, I walk quietly down to the roses of Rond-Point Schuman, I ruffl e my favorite Lippizan horse, and smile happily, thanking the gods that I was born nearby.

> Susanne Nies

Research Fellow, French Institute for International RelationsParis/BrusselsGerman

IFRI website:http://www.ifri.org/frontDispatcher/ifri

There are a few unbelievable places in the world, where world history just happens. And the only obligation for the happy few born right there is to stay, to observe, to witness

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EUROPE 2057

GLOBAL CONCORD 2057: 30 YEARS AFTER THE TECHNO-NUCLEAR WAR

Boris is dreaming of life on a Mexican ranch in the 19th century. He is riding a horse, sleeping under a tree. Then he comes home for lunch and listens to a guitar while drinking delicious alcohol legally. A girl looks at him while she is cutting vegetables in the kitchen - she is the most beautiful thing he has ever seen with her yellow dress and long black hair.

What a dream! He’s doing all these things his father could have done if he hadn’t been such a lazy guy in the 2030s. Boris doesn’t have the choice; he can only re-live them virtually. Some people still ride horses and own tree gardens in 2057, but they are billionaires. As for drinking alcohol, not only is it far too expensive on the black market, but it would also mean risking his OPP (Online Public Profi le) being put on the orange list. And who would want to lose access to all good jobs, restaurants, friends and girlfriends?

Boris chose to rent Mexico 1896: Un dia en el rancho at the dream store after speaking with his grandfather about life in the Ukrainian countryside. But he knew waking up would be diffi cult! He tries to block

the implant’s growing noise and tries to sleep through at least two minutes of vibrations before giving up and switching on the “Happy morning” programme. The four hours are up. The bed folds, he receives his orange juice (he likes that name since he heard that it used to be a fruit, not just a colour) and sweet bean curd pastries, and switches on the daily update on his implant.

“NEWS: 17 minutes ago: Nigerian President Xu Hao strongly condemned Brazilian attempts to launch an agricultural cloning programme. President Hao warned that any trace of a hackers’ programme would lead to retaliation. He accuses Brazil of trying to revive the Chinese hackers’ cloning programme.

BIRTHDAY ALERT: Your great-grandmother Olga is turning 119 today.”

“Great!” thinks Boris, “I still have three of those on my mother’s side and one or two on my father’s side. No time to send a pink petal (fast and friendly message), plus that would create a dangerous precedent!”


Boris chose to rent Mexico 1896: Un dia en el rancho at the dream store after speaking with his grandfather about life in the Ukrainian countryside

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“JOB UPDATE: Two job applications reach stage 3, four have been terminated.”

Boris is happy. Two is not bad for a mid-afternoon. Apparently, both companies were impressed with his Mandarin and creativity skills. They would give him an opportunity to attend a top training school, both

willing to pay up to 150 000 NY (New Yuans, the world’s currency since 2041) for professional training. At 17, he seriously needs a new job to start his fi nal year of non-executive training.

On this happy note, he switches on the Tai Chi instructor and after fi ve minutes of deep concentration he takes a long “switch-off ” for two minutes, before doing intense cardio for ten.

“Wow, those horses and wine really did boost my motivation and relaxation. I’m ready!”, he thinks as he prepares for the dating forum he will be attending straight after the shower. His heart-rate is already at a perfect 80.

He switches on his implant to the dating forum. Two generations of boys (2038-39 and 2040-41) will be meeting one generation of girls (2040-41). They all live in MKM, the Moscow-Kiev-Minsk metropolis. Sometimes he wishes he was a girl which would give him more choice and less pressure to impress when dating. But then he remembers his cousin’s story about how a guy managed to hack her implant during one of her dreams, and he feels good about being a boy. Plus, men now almost have the same chances as women on the job market since the famous 2052 Dehli University report showing that mood stability compensated men’s lower scores in emotional IQ tests.

The dating is over. Those ten minutes have exhausted Boris more than a week of cattle work on a Mexican ranch. But he’s happy with his performance; he got provisional access to bilateral implant chat with two girls, not bad for his third dating session. He knows guys who’ve waited 20 sessions to get their fi rst provisional access!

He eats his Hawaiian noodle box from Veggie Sue and starts day-dreaming. If he gets a good job and good training, he may be able to join a global diplomacy programme in Beijing or Sao Paulo. Of course, he would have to leave the EU and his mother, but they hardly chat these days anyway. In fact, they would probably talk more often with a bit of distance! And he would be back in Moscow after graduating anyway, landing an executive job and training at the Global Assembly on Blue Square.

There, he could help one of the 327 MGAs (Members of the Global Assembly) fi nd a solution to the Nigeria-Brazil confl ict and other global issues. He swears that he will do anything to avoid seeing his children receive hacker military training, or worse, go to school with clones!

He remembers his father’s stories about DNA selection and his ten-year hacker service after the 2026 Techno-Nuclear War. Soon after that, he got put on the red list for hacking into the implant of his wife’s lover. He is due back online in fi ve months, but Boris has a feeling he will never see his father work his way back into the community.

And yet, he’s full of confi dence for his own children. He knows that no one will let Brazil and Nigeria start something the US and China did 30 years ago.

> Donald McFarrenResearcherSanta Ana, CaliforniaAmerican

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On an afternoon somewhere in south-eastern Europe, a boy and a girl are passing by a 104-storey skyscraper. Suddenly, almost three dozen people appear, rushing into the building. They are followed by the usual crowd of journalists. While the boy is taken by what is going on, the girl picks up a metal star from the street. ‘Look, it’s steel!’, she says to the boy, and throws it up to the sky. And as the star fell in a perfect circular movement, against all laws of gravity, a ray of light refl ected upon it, making it look as bright as gold. STOP.

REWIND: March 2003, BBC News The US stationed an additional 40 B52 planes in the United Kingdom, with the plan of increasing the intensity of fl ights over Southern Iraq. These highly equipped aircraft were used in the First Gulf War in 1991 and during the Kosovo crisis in 1999. Most of the world public regards this occurrence as the unoffi cial beginning of an unwanted war. The British Prime Minister, Blair, continues to support the strikes, despite a fall in the polls. This led to a fresh situation in Parliament, where the Labour party is in a state of fragmentation. This has never happened before in UK politics. Meanwhile, the French president, Jacques Chirac, fi ercely opposes the imminent strikes against Iraq. STOP.

FAST FORWARD: June 2057, Luxembourg (two former rival offi cials over a cup of coff ee)

> Mon Dieu! C'était une bonne idée! Time for celebration, I would say. We’ve fi nally made it - and it is all actually working! Incredible,

I didn’t think I’d live to see this moment. Who would have said that we would have done so much in 20 years? I was afraid, mon amie, that we would not make it. Europe seemed so fragile way back then, and Brussels functioned like a bureaucratic monster.

> Well, it took a lot of time and eff ort - but Our House is pretty much stable right now.

> Oui, it is. I can’t think of the right word. Well, fi nally, we can believe in what the Italian was singing about in the 1990s.

> The one who won the Eurovision song contest?

> Oui, oui… What’s the weather like back in London, still rainy? STOP.

REWIND: February 2003, Brussels – Europa PressroomThe European Parliament has published the Draft of the Accession Treaty for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia to the European Union. The document is based on the negotiation process that the countries engaged in over the past few years, and is believed to be a vast step towards the expected enlargement next year. The Institutions believe that the EU is prepared to face the challenge of accepting the new member states. The Commission claims that the European project with more than 25 countries will be rather challenging. However, they trust in the sustainability of the project by reverting to the success of the single market, followed by the launch of the euro. These two achievements in the fi eld of European integration demonstrate the compatibility of ambition and realism. STOP.

FAST FORWARD: January 2016, Strasbourg (European Parliament Session)

Dear Members of the European Parliament,We have an upcoming wave of enlargement in a few months, which leaves little time for contemplation. Our ambitions to enlarge the EU are inhibited by the slow development of the European Institutions and the ongoing criticism about the widening of the democratic gap. Once again, we have to show both ambition and pragmatism. Ambition - because enlargement is an important project. Pragmatism - because we have to make the EU more effi cient and transparent.

In other words, we cannot build the second fl oor of the house without a stable base. In order to explain this, I revert to the strategy employed in a board game called ‘The colonizers of Katan’. Each contestant has a territory with material for building - either rock, coal, grain or wood. When the dice are thrown, the contenders can accumulate their material and start building cities. But, in order to construct a city, one needs to have a village established in its place; and in order to have a village, one needs two streets. Of course, each of the elements has its value in terms of material, and a mixture of ‘ingredients’ is needed to construct any of the aforementioned. The point is, the players have to cooperate and trade the material, in order to construct their cities. Sometimes a player might lose some ‘ingredients’, but he will regain them by having a city on the board.

Now, look at the EU as a city that we want to build. We have the ingredients. What we need is to fi nd an adequate


EUROPE 2057

EU 2057 SCENARIO

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way to compile all the materials we have and start constructing - fi rst the streets, then the villages, and fi nally, the city. Or, as we call it - our House. STOP.

REWIND: January 2007, BBC News:

Today, the EU welcomed Bulgaria and Romania - the newest member states. The Community has grown from the

initial six members to 27. After a series of delays to this enlargement round due to the restructuring of the European Institutions, or the internal problems of the applicant countries, the world is now faced with a new European outlook. Will Europe be stronger than ever? STOP.

PLAY (UNPLUGGED): In varietate concordia – Unity in diversity

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Our ambitions to enlarge the EU are inhibited by the slow development of the European Institutions and the ongoing criticism about the widening of the democratic gap. Once again, we have to show both ambition and pragmatism

> Jelena Dzankic PhD student University of Cambridge Montenegrin

"[…] the rotten tree trunk, until the very moment when the storm-blast breaks it in two, has all the appearance of might that it ever had." Isaac Asimov, Foundation©

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SHIFT mag [n°4] - Europe 2057

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