SHIFT mag [n°4] - Europe 2057

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[N°4]

Europe 2057EUROPE

TALKS TOBRUSSELS

Shift Mag 004.indd 1Shift Mag 004.indd 1 12/12/07 16:08:2912/12/07 16:08:29

08 >

Breaking the boundaries of

communication

CONTENT

> 20EU 2057 scenario

> 18Global

Concord

> 16Rond-Point

Schuman

> 14China 2057

> 12Free hug

10 >

Walk of Fake

> 06From regional to global peace

> 04

Climate

migrants

08 >

State of the Union

address


Victor Fleurot

SHIFT Mag

Editor

Brussels

EDITORIALIf one had asked the EU’s founding fathers to draw a picture of

Europe in 2007, it would probably have featured square-jawed

robots and imposing computers, in a city looking like one giant,

ultra-modern factory.

How could they have foreseen the revolution of micro-design

brought about by Japanese companies in the 80s, the even more

groundbreaking birth of the internet, wireless communication or

satellite navigation systems?

Had they looked through a crystal ball, these visionary humanists

would probably have felt a mixture of pride and apprehension at

seeing how young Europeans live today. They would have marvelled

at the frightening range of possibilities enjoyed by a generation that

can go online to book low-cost fl ights from Barcelona to Warsaw,

plan a city break or use dating websites.

Well, what are the chances we would be equally impressed and

frightened by the world in 2057?

Do you really think Dolly the sheep was a minor accident in a dead-

end street of history? Are you ready to face An Inconvenient Truth?

To mark the end of the EU’s 50th anniversary, the fourth issue of SHIFT

Mag gathers the dreams and visions of talented and forward-looking

Europeans on what the world could look like in 50 years.

The result is a mixture of science-fi ction and serious predictions,

with hope and fear closely intertwined as we review the challenges

ahead. We may be bound to the same fate as the planet’s previous

tenants, our old friends the dinosaurs, but at least we can laugh and

cry about it.

Tipik Communication – A SWORD Group Company.Avenue de Tervueren 270 – 1150 Brussels – Belgium.

Free quarterly publication (cannot be sold). Published by Tipik Communication. Reproduction in any form is prohibited without prior consent. The views expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent those of SHIFT Mag.

[ N° 4 ] > SHIFTmag 03

SHIFT MagEUROPE TALKS TO BRUSSELS

Avenue de Tervueren 270

1150 Brussels – Belgium

www.shiftmag.eu

Publisher: Juan ARCAS

[email protected]

Editor: Victor FLEUROT • T. +32 2 235 56 21

[email protected]

Contributors to this issue: Laurent BEDUNEAU WANG (Paris),

Laura DAGG (Paris), Jelena DZANKIC (Cambridge),

Tânia FELICIO (Bruges), Solange GUO CHATELARD (Paris),

Brieuc HUBIN (Brussels), Marjorie JOUEN (Paris),

Donald MCFADDEN (Santa Ana), Susanne NIES (Paris/Brussels),

Laurent VAN BRUSSEL (Brussels)

Illustrations: Mi Ran COLLIN, Brieuc HUBIN, Ron SAINT-CLAIR,

Wim TACITURN, François TACOEN, Emmanuel TREPANT

Photography: iStockphoto, Eric LEMONNE

Production & coordination: Nadine SCHWIRTZ

[email protected]

Design & Graphics: Tipik Studio

Printed by: Van Ruys, Brussels

Administration & subscription:

Gabriela OLSSON • T. + 32 2 235 56 44

[email protected]

To advertise in SHIFT Mag contact:

Guy DE SAN • T. +32 2 235 56 75

[email protected]

SHIFT Mag • 2007


The night was dark on Alba when

Major Juan Moreno got back to the

PFE (Peace Force in Europe) temporary

camp. The day had been testing for

his unit. Thanks to their laser and

electro guns, which had paralysed the

belligerents for a few minutes, they

had managed to keep the two groups

separated. But they had arrived too

late to prevent human losses: seven

people had died and 52 were injured.

March 15, 2057, would be marked

with a black stone, as the most

deadly day since the beginning of the

confl ict between the Dutch and Cypriot

refugees. This was without counting

the fi nancial losses calculated by the

analysts: € 800 000, i.e. € 400 000 for

medical attention, € 150 000 for the unit

of 100 soldiers, € 100 000 for damaged

and used equipment, € 100 000 for

civil damage to property, € 30 000 for

economic depreciation and € 20 000 for

deterioration caused to landscape. This

operation of policing was increasingly

expensive and impatience was growing

among members of the European

Parliament.

Juan Moreno thought that the 100th

anniversary of the USE, the Union of

the States of Europe, would soon be

celebrated with emphasis. But the

situation hardly lent itself to rejoicing.

Admittedly, in his unit, the women and

men from almost all the 48 member-

entities (Nation states and Autonomies)

got on well. They were qualifi ed experts

and shared the same peace objective

for the continent, thanks to the effi cient

training received at the high European

School for Civilian and Military Peace in

Brussels.

Unfortunately, it was not the same

elsewhere. Both chambers of the

European Parliament had failed to agree

to vote for the budget and the new

laws. The intercultural tensions were

endless and everything was prone to

quarrels and trials as soon as collective

choices had to be made. However,

eff orts had been made to improve

mutual understanding between people.

For 30 years, all Europeans had been

learning Engleur from a very young age,

in addition to their maternal language.

This name was suggested by the English

government, to make it clear that their

beautiful language had little in common

with this "basic common basis" of 3 000

words, which was gradually expanded

with new expressions borrowed from

other languages.

As regards the confl ict between the

Dutch and Cypriots, all had started in

the wake of a major plan to introduce

the climate change policy adopted

by the Netherlands in 2015. The

government had fi rst explained that

they were confi dent in the future

because of the country’s historical

experience with water control. However,

by 2050 the Dutch had to admit that

the mechanism was insuffi cient and far

too costly. They had to concede large

rural and semi-urban areas to the sea to

concentrate on rescuing the cities. This

led to the plan of displacing 5 million

people over 10 years.

A Stock Exchange of the territories

was organised to encourage voluntary

refugees to settle in a more accessible

rural area. The French Massif Central

and the Western Alps were already

largely repopulated with former

inhabitants of the Belgian and French

Flanders evacuated in 2035, and Italians

from the Po delta. Scandinavia had

become too cold due to the progressive

disappearance of the Gulf Stream. The

Dutch migrants chose a forest region in

Transylvania, which had just acquired its

European Autonomy statute together

with Galicia, Brittany and Padania.

In 2020, the Common Agricultural Policy

had been suppressed, which quickly

led to the disappearance of mid-range

mountain farms. Those in higher

mountains were still benefi ting from

comfortable environmental aid, while

those in the fertile plains remained

profi table. Subsequently, large forests

developed in-between for industrial

use.

The 500 000 Dutch established as a

colony and quickly set up a forestry

development programme as well as a

master plan for their cities. However, it

failed to take into account the presence

of 100 000 Cypriot refugees residing

there since the end of the 2040s. They

had been driven out by the persistent

drought on their island: rain had not

fallen between 2045 and 2049.

04 SHIFTmag > [ N° 4 ]

EUROPE 2057

CLIMATE MIGRANTS: DUTCH AND CYPRIOT REFUGEES IN TRANSYLVANIA

Marjorie JouenAdviser, Notre Europe think tank

Paris

French

Marjorie was a member of the Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission in charge of territorial and social issues. Besides her work with Notre Europe, she is currently a member of the President’s Cabinet at the Committee of the Regions.


EUROPE TALKS TO BRUSSELS


FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TOPIC, VISIT:http://ec.europa.eu/comm/cdp/scenario/index_en.htm http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/climate-changes-2007-ar4-fr.htmhttp://www.mnp.nl/en/publications/ /TheeffectsofclimatechangeintheNetherlands.htmlhttp://www.iucn.org/places/medoffice/CDCambio_climatico/contenido/D/PDF/CC_d5a.pdfhttp://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/com/2007/com2007_0722en01.pdf

The desalination units built 40 years ago were

regularly breaking down due to the lack of public

investment. Although luxury tourism was maintained

by the seaside, all budget hotels had to close, creating

large redundancies. Agriculture and livestock-farming

had almost completely disappeared. But unlike the

Dutch, Cypriot migration was carried out by small

groups and the majority of the refugees were not

farmers, but tradesmen.

The relations between both communities

strained rather quickly. Use of the land,

building authorisations, working methods:

all was liable to confl ict. The spark came

from the law that the Dutch had tried to

pass regarding the closure of shops on Sundays,

for religious reasons, and at night, in order to save energy for

glasshouse cultivations. They had launched a legal process

within the USE Supreme Court and the Cypriots counter-attacked

with an "immaterial communications war". The fi rst death of the

confl ict was recorded in early December 2056.

The Transylvanian government, unable to restore

order, requested the help of the PFE. Fifty cultural

mediators were fi rst rushed in, but they quickly

acknowledged the futility of their task because

the ethnic issue concealed powerful economic

interests. The United Wood Company, a

multinational holding based in Rotterdam,

was opposed to the Inter-Mediterranean

Credit Bank, which was well-established

in Nicosia and the Middle East.

It was then decided to instigate

a 50 million intervention for a

month, mobilising 200 men. On the

15th day, things did not improve and, in

the headquarters, testing of the new climatic

disturbance mechanisms (by making the snow fall

for 3 weeks on the region) was being considered. It would

certainly be hazardous, but would perhaps ease tensions on

the ground.

The French Massif Central and the Western Alps were already largely repopulated with former inhabitants of the Belgian and French Flanders evacuated in 2035

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EUROPE 2057

THE EU FROM REGIONAL TO GLOBAL PEACE

Stars can be classifi ed according to

the luminosity eff ects found in their

spectral lines, which are determined

by the surface gravity. They range

from hypergiants (the most luminous

stars) to white dwarfs, thought to be

the fi nal evolutionary state of all stars,

gradually radiating away their energy

and cooling down. The EU seems to be

a rising star as far as peace and security

are concerned. The question is if it will

become a hypergiant or a white dwarf

in the next 50 years.

In the 50th year of its existence, the

EU is celebrating the achievement of

regional peace, prosperity and democ-

racy. This is often a forgotten side of

the European integration process, and

probably the main sign of its success.

Indeed, very often the media and

Euro-sceptics take peace for granted

and end up focusing solely on the

shortcomings of the integration proc-

ess. But the reality is that peace has

been achieved in the EU and almost

throughout the whole of Europe. The

challenge now is to expand this region

of peace to the rest of the world.

Indeed, the EU wants to go global

as a promoter of peace, stability,


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democracy and human rights. The

key EU stakeholders have commit-

ted to this new challenge: UK Foreign

Secretary David Miliband, in his very

publicised address to the College of

Europe, called for an open, global

Europe, and for the EU to become a

leader in “addressing the great global

challenges we face”, concluding they

provide a “new raison d’être for the

European Union”.

As far as crisis management is con-

cerned, with the EU quickly developing

its response capacity, the new motto

of the European Commission is “no

forgotten crisis”. All over the world,

“from Georgia to Myanmar, from the

DRC to Peru, the EU must live up to its

goal of global security”, as stated by EU

Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner.

European media seem to be very keen

on stressing how the EU is a “dwarf”

in security next to the US, but if one

takes a closer look, the fact is that the

past 15 years have seen the capacities

of the Union developing at an amaz-

ing pace. Since 2003, no less than 16

civilian and military missions have

been carried out in the Balkans, the

Middle East, Asia and Africa. The new

Treaty of Lisbon brings major changes

in the security context with important

implications for the EU’s expanding

global role, such as the double-hatted

High Representative for Foreign Aff airs

and Security Policy and a single legal

personality for the EU (crucial for its

ability to sign international agree-

ments). If the EU continues developing

its external and security instruments at

the same pace, it can be expected to

become a hypergiant in this fi eld, with

global reach and eff ectiveness.

But today’s security agenda has

enlarged in unexpected ways. Issues

of energy, climate change and natural

resources are becoming priorities on

the European security agenda. The

role of the EU in world peace and secu-

rity is directly linked to these priorities

and on the way it chooses to address

them, not only through crisis manage-

ment instruments, but through its

diplomatic capacity in infl uencing the

new international system for the next

50 years.

Faced with a clear crisis in traditional

“intergovernmental” multilateralism,

the EU has committed to eff ective

multilateralism, and supports the UN

in this endeavour. But this seems to be

a buzzword with no practical signifi -

cance, as the EU itself is using diff erent

forms of cooperation to tackle govern-

ance issues (and more often than not

to address its own strategic interests).

Instead of multilateralism, multipolar-

ity is taking centre stage. And the EU,

while committing to eff ective multilat-

eralism, is strategically using bilat-

eral cooperation (namely for energy

security), as it acknowledges the new

coming powers.

The European project is based on the

acknowledgment that states can-

not govern alone “problems without

passports” and that such problems

are regional, if not global, in nature.

In this sense, the EU’s stated strategy

is to encourage other regions of the

world to develop cooperation struc-

tures and to cooperate with the UN at

the global level. But in practice, the EU

chooses to hold bilateral summits with

Brazil instead of MERCOSUR, or China

and India separately, failing to follow

a consistent pattern in its promotion

of regional cooperation and eff ective

multilateralism. Moreover, the EU itself

is proving to be a multipolar system,

with decision-making often depend-

ent on bargaining within a group of

European powers who fail to show a

truly unifi ed voice.

The EU’s role in a more secure world

in 50 years depends on its ability to be

coherent with its commitments and

harmonise them with an increasingly

multipolar world. The EU must use its

soft power to convince old and new

global powers to commit to multi-

lateralism (because it is in their own

interest to do so).

The perfect combination of strength

and dialogue, of security capacities

(moving at an incredibly fast pace)

and soft power as a model of regional

peace and prosperity, can lead the

rising star to establish itself as a hy-

pergiant. If the right balance between

these two dimensions of its external

policies fails, we might just see the

supernova turn into a white dwarf,

with no energy to expand its light to

the rest of the galaxy.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TOPIC, VISIT:http://www.iss.europa.eu/chaillot/

chai100.pdf

http://www.iss.europa.eu/chaillot/

chai78.pdf

http://www.irri-kiib.be/paperegm/

ep16.pdf

http://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jcmkts/

v45y2007ip768-769.html

> Tânia Felício Project Researcher

UNU-CRIS, Bruges

Portuguese



The reality is that peace has been achieved in the EU and almost throughout the whole of Europe. The challenge now is to expand this region of peace to the rest of the world


EUROPE 2057

THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS, 25 MARCH 2057


Most distinguished Members of

Parliament it is a privilege to deliver

the State of the Union address on this

historic day: the 100th anniversary of

the Rome Treaty. The European idea

stretches back into the past, into the

collective consciousness of our peoples

for centuries. Yet it is the embryonic

and profoundly symbolic cooperation

of the Coal and Steel Community

and the later European Economic

Community that have led to the

development of our vast democratic

union encompassing over 35 member

states today. A hundred years of peace

can now rival the hundred years’

war to which our continent was so

accustomed.

FROM MID-LIFE CRISIS TO MATURITY

Indeed, we can look back with serenity

on the “mid-life crisis” of all those

years ago. The failure of the fi rst

Constitutional treaty served as an

important lesson. Two decades later

the constitutional idea emerged again.

Increased mobility had fostered greater

mutual understanding and solidarity.

The revolution in communications and

translation technology had broken

down barriers between our peoples.

Pan-European debates, television,

European political parties and

exchange programmes had created

a veritable European public space so

lacking in the early years.

The second European convention,

comprised of elected representatives,

with the aim of drawing up our

Constitution has been the greatest

exercise in trans-national democracy

ever undertaken. The European

referendum (double majority of states

and peoples) and the high levels of

participation and large majority in

favour of the Constitution have been

a source of pride. Our institutional

structure continues to be a source

of strength. Decisions are made

smoothly by qualifi ed majority voting.

Unanimity has been consigned to the

past. Our Constitution enshrined a

new method of political organisation,

which maintained many of the unique

features of our political endeavour:

a supra-national Parliament, the

Council representing the states, the

Commission as government, the

Court of Justice and Central Bank. As

a federation of nation states we have

organised our political life effi ciently

while preserving national and local

identities.

EXTENDING THE FRONTIERS OF

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE

EUROSPHERE

By far the greatest success of the EU

has been the reunifi cation of Europe.

However, further enlargement was

accompanied by the creation of

the Eurosphere. For those states

interested in the advantages of the

single market without the political,

social and economic integration, this

was the best solution. Our shared

values as expressed in the Charter of

fundamental rights could no longer be

à la carte. Those countries that did not

subscribe to the political goals of the

EU were invited to join the Eurosphere.

They have access to the single market

and maintain a privileged relationship

with the EU. The African Union, the

countries of the Middle East, the United

Kingdom, Turkey and Switzerland are

all members of the enlarged single

market. From Brussels to Bamako, the

euro is the currency of trade and the

norms are European.

LEADING THE ETHICAL

GLOBALISATION FRONT

The acceleration of the globalisation

process in the 1990s has continued

apace. Far from being left by the

wayside as many critics were

predicting then, the EU has held its

own in this new global confi guration.

Demands for a decent standard of

health care, of housing, of work and

above all a yearning for dignity were

the concerns of the time. Reform of

international institutions such as the

WTO with extended competences

in the area of the environment and

labour law, has led to more equitable

competition. New regional actors such

as South America, India, Africa and

China have assumed their place and

their responsibilities in this world order.

Europe, as a model of norm-based

regional integration, where social

justice is of prime importance, has

been the spearhead of the ethical

globalisation movement. It promotes

a basic ethic of minimum values,

attitudes and standards to which all

nations can subscribe. The EU can be

proud of diff using the principles of fair

globalisation to its partner countries

while maintaining its openness to

world trade.

We have come a long way from

coal and steel to green energy. The

decision to reduce emissions has

paid off . The global ETS system

includes all our major partners and

has been implemented by the World

Environmental Organisation. We have

h

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Neither superpower, nor superstate, the EU has developed outside the categories of times past. The EU was built by the vanquished. This historical humility has protected us from the folly of empire

©Ro

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> Laura DaggDirector of a pro-european association

Paris

Irish


a modern agricultural policy, which allows us to combine food

security, environmental and energy concerns.

The European prototype of trans-national democracy has

withstood the test of time and is envied elsewhere. Cultural

and educational policies have been the success of recent years.

Respect for cultural and linguistic diversity and the fostering of

European culture within and beyond the Union have been our

priorities.

EUROPEAN DIPLOMACY IN ACTION

We are also celebrating today fi fty years of European diplomacy.

We have moved from a shared to a common diplomacy and

foreign policy. Reform of the UN was the occasion for European

representation in an enlarged Security Council. This has given

the EU the coherence it lacked. From questions of nuclear

proliferation to global warming and civil war the EU now has a

single position and can if necessary back this up with by force

when sanctioned by a UN mandate.

Notwithstanding, the EU has never been a predatory power.

Defying all historical precedent of empires, it has remained a

peaceful power respecting human rights and international law.

The divorce of human rights from security seen at the beginning

of this century in a climate of global terror has rescinded. The

resolution of the confl ict in the Middle East and the reduction of

poverty and fl ourishing of democracy in this region have been

the focus of European diplomatic eff orts.

Neither super power, nor super state, the EU has developed,

outside of the categories of times past. The EU was built by the

vanquished. This historical humility has protected us from the

folly of empire. It is a model of regional integration; a federation

of nation states sharing the same ideals, capable of infl uencing

the course of history for the better. The institutions created

100 years ago are the secret of its success. Europe’s belief in

the values of social justice, balanced economic development

and human dignity has made it a beacon of human rights and

paragon of economic success. There is much to be proud of on

our 100th anniversary and hopefully for the next 100 years to

come.

VIVE L’UNION EUROPÉENNE! VIVE L’EUROPE!


FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT:http://www.realizingrights.org/

www.mouvement-europeen.eu (FR)

www.taurillon.org

© R

on S

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T-CL

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EUROPE 2057

WALK OF FAKE: WELCOME TO CLONE ISLAND…

Brussels Literary Review

24 October 2057

The 19th century saw the opening of

the fi rst waxwork museums: Madame

Tussauds in London (1835) and Musée

Grévin in Paris (1882). In the 20th cen-

tury, real-life lookalikes became a me-

dia phenomenom. Thanks to Professor

Ingemann and his clone island of

Monte Caro, the 21st century has gone

one step further… or backwards – where

mankind is a powerless witness, history

alone can judge.

Eugenic cloning eliminated many he-

reditary diseases. Therapeutic cloning

allowed us to address organs shortage.

That was 35 years ago. Ten years later,

just as Jesus would have multiplied bread

and fi sh, human beings started to repro-

duce their children to infi nity in the name

of “demographic emergency”: human

cloning was born.

The commercial cloning project

launched by Professor Ingemann goes

further – clearly too far according to

Spanish human rights champion Victoria

Delahoya. “Mr Ingemann thinks he is a

genius, able to control the elements. He

thinks he is making the world better but

he is only fl attering his own vanity at the

expense of these “jet-slaves” who are

human beings above all! We can’t remain

silent when slave drivers become kings

in the kingdom of human rights. The

international community contents itself

with condemning. People have to rise up

against this!”

It is without a doubt the most unlikely

scientifi c experience in recent memory.

Secretly developed from 2029 in a

laboratory located in Akademgorodok,

Russia, this project materialised fi ve years

ago when Delilah Romanovic, a Chechen

multimillionaire businesswoman who

made her fortune in space hotels and

tourism, laid the foundation stone of the

man-made archipelago of Monte Caro. At

fi rst sight, it was just another internation-

al real-estate venture, after Palm Islands

and The World located off Dubaï’s coast

line, The Pearl in Qatar, Federation Island

in the Black Sea at Stochi, Russia, or La

Belgique de papa1 in the North Sea.

Rising above the bay of Monaco, the

Monte Caro project has everything a

virtual world would, except that it is con-

crete reality. Some sort of “Real Second

Life”! The island is indeed in every re-

spect artifi cial and exclusively populated

with clones. But they are not just any

clones. Nobody knows who they really

are, certainly not their creator, maybe not

even themselves. Only their assumed life,

stolen identity and conditioned person-

ality are common knowledge. They are

called James Brown, Jacques Brel, Jeff

Buckley or Jean-Paul Belmondo. They

have the true features of Lady Diana

or Diana Ross. They impersonate to

perfection Madonna or Diego Maradona.

They speak with the witty eloquence

of Winston Chrurchill or Muhammad

Ali. But they will never do anything else

other than what they were taught to do:

pretending to be.

Although the ressemblance is striking,

only physical mimicry is natural. All the

rest goes beyond cloning. Years of daily

individual coaching and psychological

support, nutrional programmes and per-

manent aftercare are necessary to make

the copy and the original appear as one

and the same thing.

Elvis “Vegas Crooner” Presley tells us: “I

was not The King when I was born but

Elvis Presley, the little country boy from

Mississippi, wasn’t either. He and I both

became The King. But our life stories are

diff erent. I’m a laboratory product. Elvis

has been dominating my daily life since

the fi rst day, from morning till night. But

I’m not complaining here. Today I’m 40

years old, I weigh 270 pounds, I’m living

in Graceland, I sing like a god and thank

godness I’m still alive. I’m The King man!

[laughter]. More seriously, the image is

one thing and the human being is anoth-

er... It’s very hard to live up to an image,

especially when it is somebody else’s.”

That Elvis is not alone. He mixes with

three other “Elvis” on Monte Caro: Elvis

the “romantic male lead” who works

like a dog every Sunday night on the

recreated stage of The Ed Sullivan Show,

Elvis the “singing soldier”and Elvis “King

Creole”, the actor. But he is no excep-

tion. From Bob Marley to Georgie Best,

celebrities with fl uctuating careers have

multiple clones.

“No clone on Monte Caro is a living fi gure.

Some people say we are violating human

rights, others argue we are abusing the

10

Laurent van Brussel

Literary critic, Brussels Literary Review

Brussels International District

Belgian

Born in 1982, he has witnessed 21st century Europe from its

embryonic state. When he was 18, celebrating the millenium, he

believed that the worst predicted by his folks for him and the rest of

the world was just frustated ex-hippies’ bile. Today more than ever,

he is a real fan of the sixties!

I was not The King when I was born but Elvis Presley, the little country boy from Mississippi, wasn’t either. He and I both became The King

SHIFTmag > [ N° 4 ]

© W

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world’s cultural heritage. Whatever they say, we are here to

lead people through a daydream fi rst. Do you realise what it

means for today’s crowds to physically witness or even inter-

act with the stars from the past? Something fake can be true.

I trust people will make the distinction”, Professor Ingemann

explains.

Everyone will soon have the opportunity to experience and

judge Monte Caro for themselves. The island is due to open

its doors to the public in less than six years. It off ers its

visitors diff erent possibilities. Two attractions have

already caught the public’s imagination on the web.

The Dig up the idol pass – from 2 500 to 10 000

UD2– will allow its lucky owner to spend an

hour, a day or even a week with the celebrity

of his choice. The Back in time pass – from

1 000 to 5 000 UD – will give access to

a wide range of spectacular reenact-

ments, throwing the crowd into some

of the most

defi ning moments in history: the Hilary Clinton assassination,

the Woodstock Festival, the Rumble in the Jungle fi ght, etc.

How many clones will the island gather? How was all this

made possible? Would it have happened if the Monaco had

not been privatised? Who are the brains behind this race for

DNA? The Monte Caro mystery remains unresolved.

Did you like the story? Feel like booking a place at Monte Caro?

Ready to pack your bags with your favourite Nirvana t-shirt,

Mein Kampf to ask him why, a copy of Velazquez ‘s Feast of

Bacchus or the stolen snapshots of Jim Morrison’s dead body

in his bath to have them autographed? Then we have some

good and bad news for you. The bad news is that all these

words are sheer invention. The good news is that you can read

all about it in the upcoming bestseller The Monte Caro Project

on sale at your local bookshop from the start of the 2058 liter-

ary season.



1 Old-fashioned Belgium: La Belgique de papa is a real-life museum dedicated to Belgium’s

history from 1830 to 2030 – a nice reconversion for this complex made famous worldwide

for having welcomed the fi rst off shore football World Cup in 2018

2 universal dollar = 0.91 (previous) euro

© W

im T

ACIT

URN


EUROPE 2057

FREE HUG As a tribute to the great tradition of Belgian comic books, SHIFT Mag revisits 1970s-style BD (comics in French) for an ingenuous take on life in 50 years. English translation under the original pictures.


© B

rieu

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Pho

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aphy

: Eri

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In 2057, Europe will be celebrating its

fi rst centenary anniversary since its

formal “union”, the United States will

almost be reaching its third since the

war of independence, and China, as

a multi-ethnic civilisation organised

under a centralised authority, will be

commemorating its twenty-third.

In other words, China has experienced

more than two thousand years of

irregular, but adaptive, bureaucratic

governance, sustained by a unifying

and evolving cosmological view of the

world. The radical but interim Maoist

experience, and its seemingly opaque

legacy, is an exceptional chapter in

China’s extensive history.

In order to understand China’s

development over the next 50 years, it

is crucial to account for its problematic

and piecemeal adjustment from a

“cosmological” understanding of

the world to a “rational-political”

understanding of both its internal and

external aff airs since the end of the

19th century.

Contrary to dominant interpretations,

China does not have an internal

or external “political” agenda in

the conventional Western sense –

inherited from the Greek concept of

“polis”. Internally, the large majority

of Chinese “citizens” do not wish to,

and will not be able to, take over and

handle the aff airs of the country;

externally, China’s political class does

not want to have a leadership role on

the international stage, like the USA

have held since 1945.

If China is closing in on the top

position on the world’s podium

by 2057, it will be the result of

successful commercial

and historically driven

internal policies for unity (currently

achieved through material progress

and a reassertion of Chinese identity).

Furthermore, if China takes on a

“political role” once in this position, it

will be the result of external demands

from the former Western leaders

leaving the “global offi ce” that they

have largely created for themselves.

Although China’s entry into the

next century is not pure accidental

spontaneity, it is also marked by an

absence of a premeditated “political

model” guiding internal and external

developments.

However, the next 50 years are the

equivalent of two generations:

2007–2032, 2032–2057, and China,

as mentioned above, does have

ambitions. The fi rst is an economic

ambition to develop and

improve common living

EUROPE 2057

CHINA 2057


If China achieves global status, it may well fi nd the reigns of global governance passed down from the USA a tad unfamiliar, partly constraining, but after all manageable

© iS

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standards. The second is concentrated

around the re-construction of Chinese

identity.

China’s economic ambitions can

be summed up in two parts. First,

China wants to increase its GDP. This

ambition is doubly signifi cant, as

China has only recently begun to solve

the chronic state of material scarcity

it was subjected to under Maoist

communism. According to current

trends, China is likely to overtake the

US between 2035 and 2045.

The second is linked to the evolution

of the capitalist paradigm. Changes

throughout the 20th century have

revealed that economic and fi nancial

creation of value is not enough.

Environmental and social priorities, as

well as how to integrate them into a

comprehensive economic context, will

become just as important.

Part of China’s economic ambition

might consist in integrating

environmental and social constraints to

overtake the Western capitalist model

as it has been developed over the last

two centuries. The aim of developing

a specifi c Chinese economic model

has been an unremitting ambition

from Mao Zedong to Hu Jintao. The

former adapted Marxism-Leninism

to the Chinese context,

and the later currently

emphasises

social

harmony when Western countries are

promoting sustainable development.

Perhaps the one unrelenting aspect

of the Chinese economy in the long-

term to grasp and retain is its ability to

“adapt”. The Chinese economic model

might consist precisely in not having a

model.

This brings us to the second ambition:

identity. China will progressively

bridge the economic gap with other

industrialised countries and seek to

solve internal tensions linked to its

eff ective unity and identity. However,

historically, Chinese identity or

“Chinese citizenship” has not been

defi ned in the modern sense: the

individual’s relationship with the

sovereign state. Indeed, how clear

and accomplished are the parameters

of the Chinese state today? To when

can we trace back the origins of the

modern Chinese state? 1912? 1949?

1978?

Political legitimacy throughout the

ages in China has derived from a

cosmological concept of concord

and unity between social and natural

phenomena of the world (what the

Chinese call “all under heaven”). In

other words, rather than strive to

implement and respect a specifi c

“political form” (democracy, monarchy,

republic, etc.), what

conferred meaning to

centralised political

power was an ability

to ensure unity and coherence to a

large, loose and diverse civilisation.

“Synchronisation” was the key term,

not “political sovereignty”.

In 2057, one of China’s most important

tasks will be to provide a sense of

coherence and unity to a rapidly

changing internal and external

environment. It should not be to

implement a specifi c national or

international political project, but to

optimise its adaptability to a changing

and unpredictable environment.

If China achieves global status, it

may well fi nd the reigns of global

governance passed down from

the USA a tad unfamiliar, partly

constraining, but after all manageable.

15

FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT:http://www.asiasociety.org/speeches/lardy.html

[ N° 4 ] > SHIFTmag

> Solange Guo Chatelard M.Phil. Comparative Politics

Institut d'Etudes Politiques,

Paris

British/French

"The dictionary is based on the hypothesis –

obviously an unproven one – that languages

are made up of equivalent synonyms."

Jorge Luis Borges

>> Laurent Beduneau Wang

Partner, Update the

World agency

Paris

French

Laurent is chief editor and co-author of

Is China a fi nancial giant? (in French,

Vuibert, Paris, 2006) and The French

fi nancial system within the EU (in

Chinese, Faguo jinrong tixie, Jinli guanli

chubanshe, Economics and Management

Publishing House, Beijing, 2007).


It has been almost 60 years now that

I have run the small newspaper shop

on Avenue d’Auderghem, close to

Rond-Point Schuman in Brussels. I was

born here, in 1967, above the shop, in

a small two-bedroom fl at, growing up

with two sisters and one brother. My

father worked in the famous Brussels

brewery of Albert Frère. My mother was

a secretary, fi rst in the brewery where

she met my father, then in the High

Commission, and fi nally in the Council

of the EU.

Reading this short biography, you

could come to the conclusion that

my life has been a boring, lengthy

succession of non-events: a person

who never moved, spending all her

life in the same place, the same street

and the same job, which, in addition, is

merely a few metres away from the fl at

where she was born. But you would be

wrong! My life has been all but boring:

I never moved, but everything was

always moving hastily around me! The

cranes constructing the Berlaymont

building have been my babysitters,

with the noise of hammers everywhere

a permanent concert. There are a

few unbelievable places in the world,

where world history just happens. And

the only obligation for the happy few

born right there is to stay, to observe,

to witness. Thus, they themselves

become part of history.

Today, a spring day in 2057, I will close

my shop and attend the celebrations

of the 100th anniversary of my dear

European Union. In fact, I still call it the

EU, but the name was given up some

decades ago. I am old now, and sticking

to old words reassures me, a bit like

our French neighbours who continue

to count in euros, 15 years after its

replacement by the Transatlantic!

They call my dear EU the TU now, the

Transatlantica Union.

On this March morning I follow the

beautiful royal horses parading along

my street, heading for Rond-Point

Schuman. Lippizans, they stem from

the former Austro-Hungarian Empire,

and were once off ered by Vienna

in the groundless hope that Vienna

could overtake Brussels as European

capital. It was useless marketing, but it

has made my life richer, and happier,

as I now meet these wonderful

creatures once a day in the street I have

never left.

I remember how the place looked for

the EU’s 50th anniversary celebrations:

huge buildings all around, the

Berlaymont, the Consilium, the Lipsius,

and the wonderfully named Caprice

des Dieux, home to the European

Parliament. Not to mention all those

European offi cials, nicely dressed,

always serious and in a hurry. With

only one exception at that time: my

friend from Holland selling roses on the

corner of rue Froissart. I always thought

that these fl owers put some colour

and emotion in these somewhat busy

European lives.

EUROPE 2057

ROND-POINT SCHUMAN


© M

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Today, they have disappeared. Rond-

Point Schuman in its very centre

has become a famous rose garden,

sponsored by the Foundation Konrad

Adenauer. Adenauer, as everybody

knew (at least 50 years ago), raised

roses and loved these fl owers

originating from Persia more than

anything in the world. Thus, in its

centre, “Schuman”, as we locals call the

roundabout, became beautiful, and

it has helped enamoured Europeans

from all over the current 57 member

states to meet here and even marry.

But look all around now, and it is

hard to see the sky. The Berlaymont

building had been redesigned as a

Lego tower, with the option to add

on as many fl oors as you want,

year after year. But after fl oor

120, the skyscraper became

slightly unstable and the heirs

of Lucien de Vattel decided

to stop the experiment for the

sake of European civil servants’ life

expectation. New buildings have

emerged like mushrooms, helicopters

fl y around. A beautiful railway station,

inspired by the Berlin Lehrter Bahnhof,

has a permanent scent of perfume,

distilled from the roses above.

The biggest building is without

a doubt the Twin Towers, which

today symbolize Transatlantica. The

“Transatlantic Twins”, as we call them.

Nobody would have imagined the

Americans joining the European

Union. The day they arrived, in 2040,

they simply said: “Well, we like your

European diplomatic innovation. You

accepted the Russians, the Israelis,

the Turks, Iran; you negotiate with the

central Asians, you included Morocco,

Tunisia and Algeria; you believe

that the cradle of humanity lies in

today’s Europe - with Greece, Egypt,

Persia - and we feel more and more

like Europeans forgotten somewhere

in a far-away place. We are tired of

quarreling with France, questioning

ourselves about the looming power of

China. We have everything in common.

The UN proved to be useless, so let’s

just give regional solidarity a broader

dimension.”

Instead of fulfi lling the various

requirements for joining, they brought

the Statue of Liberty back across

the Atlantic, which France had once

off ered, and you can admire it now

somewhere in the middle of the roses.

Enlargement is no longer an issue.

Every year, on average, we receive

a new member. Some cooperate

more than others. The requirements

are basic shared values, a common

project, a desire to live together.

Enough, they say. More than enough, I

think. When I grew up, I was naturally

narrow-minded, frightened when I

met foreigners. Which is perfectly

normal: prejudices, for me, are nothing

more than hypotheses for transitory

ignorant people. Once the transition

fi nished, you become tolerant. The

only prerequisite, though, is lifelong

curiosity.

Do you really fi nd my life boring?

Thanks to the European Union I

became – completely by chance

– a global citizen! I know Russians,

Americans, Iranians, Egyptians,

Poles, Germans – they all come in

the morning to buy their newspaper,

they like my old-fashioned shop, they

like me as if I was a piece of antique

furniture from another epoch. I have

a table in a corner of my shop, and

I off er a cup of coff ee to each new

member state’s nationals the day of

their arrival. Once they even wrote in

the Herald Tribune that the process of

TU integration is only accomplished

for a member state the day its

representatives have a coff ee in aunt

Lizbeth’s shop. Today, on this spring

morning in 2057, I walk quietly down

to the roses of Rond-Point Schuman, I

ruffl e my favorite Lippizan horse, and

smile happily, thanking the gods that I

was born nearby.

> Susanne Nies

Research Fellow, French Institute

for International Relations

Paris/Brussels

German

IFRI website:

http://www.ifri.org/

frontDispatcher/ifri

There are a few unbelievable places in the world, where world history just happens. And the only obligation for the happy few born right there is to stay, to observe, to witness

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EUROPE 2057

GLOBAL CONCORD 2057: 30 YEARS AFTER THE TECHNO-NUCLEAR WAR

Boris is dreaming of life on a Mexican

ranch in the 19th century. He is riding

a horse, sleeping under a tree. Then

he comes home for lunch and listens

to a guitar while drinking delicious

alcohol legally. A girl looks at him

while she is cutting vegetables in the

kitchen - she is the most beautiful

thing he has ever seen with her yellow

dress and long black hair.

What a dream! He’s doing all these

things his father could have done if

he hadn’t been such a lazy guy in the

2030s. Boris doesn’t have the choice;

he can only re-live them virtually.

Some people still ride horses and own

tree gardens in 2057, but they are

billionaires. As for drinking alcohol,

not only is it far too expensive on the

black market, but it would also mean

risking his OPP (Online Public Profi le)

being put on the orange list. And

who would want to lose access to all

good jobs, restaurants, friends and

girlfriends?

Boris chose to rent Mexico 1896:

Un dia en el rancho at the dream

store after speaking with his

grandfather about life in the Ukrainian

countryside. But he knew waking up

would be diffi cult! He tries to block

the implant’s growing noise and tries

to sleep through at least two minutes

of vibrations before giving up and

switching on the “Happy morning”

programme. The four hours are up.

The bed folds, he receives his orange

juice (he likes that name since he

heard that it used to be a fruit, not

just a colour) and sweet bean curd

pastries, and switches on the daily

update on his implant.

“NEWS: 17 minutes ago:

Nigerian President Xu Hao strongly

condemned Brazilian attempts

to launch an agricultural cloning

programme. President Hao

warned that any trace of a hackers’

programme would lead to retaliation.

He accuses Brazil of trying to

revive the Chinese hackers’ cloning

programme.

BIRTHDAY ALERT:

Your great-grandmother Olga is

turning 119 today.”

“Great!” thinks Boris, “I still have three

of those on my mother’s side and one

or two on my father’s side. No time

to send a pink petal (fast and friendly

message), plus that would create a

dangerous precedent!”


Boris chose to rent Mexico 1896: Un dia en el rancho at the dream store after speaking with his grandfather about life in the Ukrainian countryside

© B

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“JOB UPDATE: Two job applications

reach stage 3, four have been

terminated.”

Boris is happy. Two is not bad for a

mid-afternoon. Apparently, both

companies were impressed with his

Mandarin and creativity skills. They

would give him an opportunity to

attend a top training school, both

willing to pay up to 150 000 NY (New

Yuans, the world’s currency since 2041)

for professional training. At 17, he

seriously needs a new job to start his

fi nal year of non-executive training.

On this happy note, he switches on the

Tai Chi instructor and after fi ve minutes

of deep concentration he takes a long

“switch-off ” for two minutes, before

doing intense cardio for ten.

“Wow, those horses and wine really did

boost my motivation and relaxation.

I’m ready!”, he thinks as he prepares for

the dating forum he will be attending

straight after the shower. His heart-rate

is already at a perfect 80.

He switches on his implant to the

dating forum. Two generations of boys

(2038-39 and 2040-41) will be meeting

one generation of girls (2040-41).

They all live in MKM, the Moscow-

Kiev-Minsk metropolis. Sometimes he

wishes he was a girl which would give

him more choice and less pressure

to impress when dating. But then he

remembers his cousin’s story about

how a guy managed to hack her

implant during one of her dreams,

and he feels good about being a boy.

Plus, men now almost have the same

chances as women on the job market

since the famous 2052 Dehli University

report showing that mood stability

compensated men’s lower scores in

emotional IQ tests.

The dating is over. Those ten minutes

have exhausted Boris more than a

week of cattle work on a Mexican

ranch. But he’s happy with his

performance; he got provisional access

to bilateral implant chat with two girls,

not bad for his third dating session. He

knows guys who’ve waited 20 sessions

to get their fi rst provisional access!

He eats his Hawaiian noodle box from

Veggie Sue and starts day-dreaming. If

he gets a good job and good training,

he may be able to join a global

diplomacy programme in Beijing or

Sao Paulo. Of course, he would have to

leave the EU and his mother, but they

hardly chat these days anyway. In fact,

they would probably talk more often

with a bit of distance! And he would

be back in Moscow after graduating

anyway, landing an executive job and

training at the Global Assembly on

Blue Square.

There, he could help one of the

327 MGAs (Members of the Global

Assembly) fi nd a solution to the

Nigeria-Brazil confl ict and other global

issues. He swears that he will do

anything to avoid seeing his children

receive hacker military training, or

worse, go to school with clones!

He remembers his father’s stories

about DNA selection and his ten-year

hacker service after the 2026 Techno-

Nuclear War. Soon after that, he got

put on the red list for hacking into

the implant of his wife’s lover. He is

due back online in fi ve months, but

Boris has a feeling he will never see

his father work his way back into the

community.

And yet, he’s full of confi dence for

his own children. He knows that no

one will let Brazil and Nigeria start

something the US and China did 30

years ago.

> Donald McFarrenResearcher

Santa Ana, California

American

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On an afternoon somewhere in south-

eastern Europe, a boy and a girl are

passing by a 104-storey skyscraper.

Suddenly, almost three dozen people

appear, rushing into the building. They

are followed by the usual crowd of

journalists. While the boy is taken by

what is going on, the girl picks up a metal

star from the street. ‘Look, it’s steel!’,

she says to the boy, and throws it up to

the sky. And as the star fell in a perfect

circular movement, against all laws of

gravity, a ray of light refl ected upon it,

making it look as bright as gold. STOP.

REWIND: March 2003, BBC News

The US stationed an additional 40 B52

planes in the United Kingdom, with

the plan of increasing the intensity of

fl ights over Southern Iraq. These highly

equipped aircraft were used in the First

Gulf War in 1991 and during the Kosovo

crisis in 1999. Most of the world public

regards this occurrence as the unoffi cial

beginning of an unwanted war. The

British Prime Minister, Blair, continues

to support the strikes, despite a fall in

the polls. This led to a fresh situation

in Parliament, where the Labour party

is in a state of fragmentation. This has

never happened before in UK politics.

Meanwhile, the French president,

Jacques Chirac, fi ercely opposes the

imminent strikes against Iraq. STOP.

FAST FORWARD: June 2057, Luxembourg (two former

rival offi cials over a cup of coff ee)

> Mon Dieu! C'était une bonne idée!

Time for celebration, I would say.

We’ve fi nally made it - and it is

all actually working! Incredible,

I didn’t think I’d live to see this

moment. Who would have said

that we would have done so much

in 20 years? I was afraid, mon amie,

that we would not make it. Europe

seemed so fragile way back then,

and Brussels functioned like a

bureaucratic monster.

> Well, it took a lot of time and eff ort

- but Our House is pretty much

stable right now.

> Oui, it is. I can’t think of the right

word. Well, fi nally, we can believe

in what the Italian was singing

about in the 1990s.

> The one who won the Eurovision

song contest?

> Oui, oui… What’s the weather like

back in London, still rainy? STOP.

REWIND: February 2003, Brussels – Europa

Pressroom

The European Parliament has published

the Draft of the Accession Treaty for the

Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia,

Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland,

Slovenia and Slovakia to the European

Union. The document is based on the

negotiation process that the countries

engaged in over the past few years, and

is believed to be a vast step towards the

expected enlargement next year. The

Institutions believe that the EU is prepared

to face the challenge of accepting the new

member states. The Commission claims

that the European project with more than

25 countries will be rather challenging.

However, they trust in the sustainability of

the project by reverting to the success of

the single market, followed by the launch

of the euro. These two achievements in the

fi eld of European integration demonstrate

the compatibility of ambition and realism.

STOP.

FAST FORWARD: January 2016, Strasbourg

(European Parliament Session)

Dear Members of the European

Parliament,

We have an upcoming wave of

enlargement in a few months, which

leaves little time for contemplation.

Our ambitions to enlarge the EU are

inhibited by the slow development

of the European Institutions and the

ongoing criticism about the widening

of the democratic gap. Once again,

we have to show both ambition and

pragmatism. Ambition - because

enlargement is an important project.

Pragmatism - because we have to make

the EU more effi cient and transparent.

In other words, we cannot build the

second fl oor of the house without a

stable base. In order to explain this, I

revert to the strategy employed in a

board game called ‘The colonizers of

Katan’. Each contestant has a territory

with material for building - either rock,

coal, grain or wood. When the dice are

thrown, the contenders can accumulate

their material and start building cities.

But, in order to construct a city, one

needs to have a village established in

its place; and in order to have a village,

one needs two streets. Of course,

each of the elements has its value in

terms of material, and a mixture of

‘ingredients’ is needed to construct any

of the aforementioned. The point is,

the players have to cooperate and trade

the material, in order to construct their

cities. Sometimes a player might lose

some ‘ingredients’, but he will regain

them by having a city on the board.

Now, look at the EU as a city that we

want to build. We have the ingredients.

What we need is to fi nd an adequate


EUROPE 2057

EU 2057 SCENARIO

©F

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way to compile all the materials we

have and start constructing - fi rst the

streets, then the villages, and fi nally,

the city. Or, as we call it - our House.

STOP.

REWIND: January 2007, BBC News:

Today, the EU welcomed Bulgaria and

Romania - the newest member states.

The Community has grown from the

initial six members to 27. After a series

of delays to this enlargement round due

to the restructuring of the European

Institutions, or the internal problems of

the applicant countries, the world is now

faced with a new European outlook. Will

Europe be stronger than ever? STOP.

PLAY (UNPLUGGED): In varietate concordia – Unity in

diversity

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Our ambitions to enlarge the EU are inhibited by the slow development of the European Institutions and the ongoing criticism about the widening of the democratic gap. Once again, we have to show both ambition and pragmatism

> Jelena Dzankic PhD student

University of Cambridge

Montenegrin

"[…] the rotten tree trunk, until

the very moment when the

storm-blast breaks it in two,

has all the appearance of might

that it ever had."

Isaac Asimov,

Foundation© F

ranç

ois

TACO

EN


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SHIFT mag [n°4] - Europe 2057

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Transcript of SHIFT mag [n°4] - Europe 2057