Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.
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Transcript of Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.
![Page 1: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Seasonal Modeling (NOAA)
Jian-Wen BaoSara Michelson
Jim WilczakCurtis FlemingEmily Piencziak
![Page 2: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Accomplishments
• Preparation of gridded data sets for the entire summer of 2000 to initialize MM5
• Refinement of the FDAA data preparation:
1. Elevation of each sigma level varies with observation sites.
2. Observations are interpolated from two adjacent data levels to a given model level.
3. An anisotropic spatial influence function is being implemented and tested.
• Observational data preparation for model evaluation:
1. Hand editted (level 1C) winds and RASS from 25 wind profilers for 60 days (3 August – 2 October, 2000)
2. Data from 1 June – 2 August remain to be editted
3. PBL depths for entire period, all profilers, have been calculated
![Page 3: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
PBL Depth Estimation
![Page 4: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
36km grid 95x91
12km grid 91x91
4km grid 190x190
All have 50 layers, with 22 in lowest 1km
Subregions for Model Evaluation
Wind profilersites
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A Major Issue to Settle
What is the best model configuration for the seasonal simulations?
Through:
• Evaluation of chemical model simulations
• Evaluation of major transport processes
• Comparison of the simulations using V6 and V7
• Comparison of WRF and MM5
![Page 7: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Chemical Model Evaluation
• MM5 runs of two 5 day periods ( Jul 24- Jul 29 and Aug 3- Aug 8 2000) were completed.
• Analysis and comparison of the above two runs with observations have been started.
![Page 8: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Comparison of the Simulated and Observed Surface Winds for the Jul-Aug Case
![Page 9: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
ABL Height Comparisons
(Colored contours are TKE, and dots indicate the observed ABL height)
![Page 10: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Observed clouds vs Model Simulation
![Page 11: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
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Solar Radiation Fluxes from Various Versions of Models for the Jul-Aug Case
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Physics Configuration in MM5:• the MYJ ABL and surface layer schemes• the NOAH land surface model (LSM)• the Dudhia short-wave, RRTM long-wave radiation schemes• the Reisner microphysics parameterization• the Grell convective scheme (only on the 36 and 12 km grids) Physics Configuration in WRF:• the MYJ ABL and surface layer schemes• the NOAH land surface model (LSM)• the Dudhia short-wave, RRTM long-wave radiation schemes• the Lin et al. microphysics parameterization• the Kain-Fritsch convective scheme (only on the 36 km and 12 km grids)
NCEP’s ETA 40-km isobaric analysis is used to initialize both WRF and MM5 at 1200 UTC 29 July 2000.
Domain and Physics Configurations of MM5 and WRF
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MM5WRF
36 kmTopography
4 kmTopography
4 kmTopography
36 kmTopography
4 kmVeg-Frac
4 kmVeg-Frac
4 kmLanduse
4 kmLanduse
MM5WRF
Differences of MM5 and WRF
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Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 1
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Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 2
![Page 18: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 3
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Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Temperature at Soil Layer 4
![Page 20: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 1
![Page 21: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 2
![Page 22: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 3
![Page 23: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Differences in the LSM Initialization
MM5WRF
Moisture at Soil Layer 4
![Page 24: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
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Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
![Page 27: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
![Page 28: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
![Page 29: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Comparison of the simulated and observed areal averaged 2m temperatures and 10m winds
![Page 30: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
WRF MM5WRF-mm5ics
from 1200 UTC 29 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 29 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 29 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 0000 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 0000 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 0000 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
from 1200 UTC 30 July to 1200 UTC 2 August
comparison of simulated forward trajectories
![Page 31: Seasonal Modeling (NOAA) Jian-Wen Bao Sara Michelson Jim Wilczak Curtis Fleming Emily Piencziak.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062314/56649f165503460f94c2d13d/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Conclusions
• Averaging meteorological input in time
• Optimizing “tunable” parameters through sensitivity experiments
• Improving cloud physics and cloud-radiation interaction
• Using MM5V3-6 for the seasonal modeling
• Undesirable noise in the FDDA run
• Uncertainties in the LSM
• Some differences in the simulated and observed clouds on cloudy days
Recommendations