R Graphics Output · 2020. 11. 23. · 3k 4k 5k Total Deaths Reported BPagano UGA−CEID Covid19Sim...
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● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● National** Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 5k 10k 15k 20k New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID ISU JCB JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL MOBS MSRA NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI ESG CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 5k 10k 15k 20k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 100k 200k 300k Total Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID ISU JCB JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL MOBS MSRA NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI CovidComplete UA UCLA UCM UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 100k 200k 300k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2020-11-23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Alabama Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 100 200 300 400 New Weekly Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID CMU Columbia-UNC Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM GT-DeepCOVID ISU JCB JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD JHU-APL Karlen LANL MOBS MSRA NotreDame-Mobility Oliver Wyman PSI ESG CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSB UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 100 200 300 400 ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 1k 2k 3k 4k 5k Total Deaths Reported BPagano UGA-CEID Covid19Sim MIT-ORC Columbia DDS LSHTM Google-HSPH GT-DeepCOVID ISU JCB JHU-CSSE JHU-IDD Karlen LANL MOBS MSRA Oliver Wyman PSI ESG CovidComplete UA UCLA UCSB UCSD-NEU UMass-MB UM USC UT Walmart Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Oct-01 Oct-15 Nov-01 Nov-15 Dec-01 Dec-15 0 1k 2k 3k 4k 5k ● ● ● ● Ensemble Individual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals Update: 2020-11-23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html **New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greater that more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
Transcript of R Graphics Output · 2020. 11. 23. · 3k 4k 5k Total Deaths Reported BPagano UGA−CEID Covid19Sim...
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National**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
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kly
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ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCMUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Alabama
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRAOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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Alaska
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSGT−DeepCOVIDJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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American Samoa
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ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUMass−MBUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arizona**
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Arkansas
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350
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kly
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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California**
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1.2k
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ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Tota
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCMUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Colorado**
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kly
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
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Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
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1k
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ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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Connecticut**
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50
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
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Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
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1k
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5k
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Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
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1k
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
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Delaware
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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1k
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EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
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District of Columbia
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
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ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
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Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
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ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUMass−MBUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
Florida**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmartBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●● ● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Georgia
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
● ● ● ●
●● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
● ● ● ●
●● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Guam
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5
10
15
20
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJCB
JHU−IDDJHU−APLNotreDame−Mobility
PSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5
10
15
20
● ●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJCB
JHU−IDDNotreDame−MobilityPSI
ESGUCLAUMass−MB
USCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Hawaii
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
Google−HSPHJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
Idaho
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ● ● ●● ●
●
●
●
Illinois**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2kN
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●● ●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ●●
●
● ●●
●
●
Indiana**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
● ●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Iowa**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
● ●●
● ●●
●
Kansas**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●●
● ●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ●●
●
●● ●
●
●
Kentucky**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
●● ●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
Louisiana**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
● ●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
Maine**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
10
20
30
40
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
10
20
30
40
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMOBSMSRAOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
● ● ●● ● ●
●
●
Maryland**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●● ● ●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
Massachusetts**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
10k
12k●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ● ● ●● ●
●
●●
Michigan**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ●
● ●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
●
Minnesota**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●
●●
● ●
●●
●
Mississippi**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●
●●
● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Missouri
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●● ●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
Montana**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Nebraska**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ●●
● ●
●
●
●
Nevada**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●●
● ●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
3k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
New Hampshire**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
●●
●●
●●
●
● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ● ● ● ●
● ● ●
●
●
New Jersey**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ●
● ● ●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ● ● ●●
●
●●
●
New Mexico**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ● ● ● ●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
New York**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
10k
20k
30k
40k
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
North Carolina**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTMGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
North Dakota
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Northern Mariana Islands
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUCLAUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1
2
3
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLESGUCLAUMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1
2
3
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
Ohio**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ● ● ● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
8k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
●
● ●
●
●● ● ●
●
Oklahoma**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ●
●
●● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●● ● ●
●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
2.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
● ●●
● ●●
●
●
Oregon**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
● ●●
● ●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
● ●●
●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Pennsylvania**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
800
1k
1.2k
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGoogle−HSPHISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
● ●●
● ●●
●
●
●
Puerto Rico**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUCovid19Sim
LSHTMJCBJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLNotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSC
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ●●
● ●●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19Sim
LSHTMJCBJHU−IDDKarlen
LANLPSIESGUCLA
UMass−MBUSCWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ●
● ●
●● ● ●
●
●
Rhode Island**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●
● ●
●● ● ●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
South Carolina
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
● ●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRAOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ●
●● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ●●
●●
●●
● ●
●
South Dakota**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●● ●
●●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
Tennessee**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
●●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
2k
4k
6k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
Texas**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●●
● ●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
2k
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
●● ● ● ●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5k
10k
15k
20k
25k
30k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●●
● ●●
● ●
●
Utah**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals● ●
●●
● ●●
● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
●
●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●●
●●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
●
●
Vermont
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5
10
15
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
5
10
15
● ●
● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
JCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMOBSMSRA
Oliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
Virgin Islands
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1
2
3
4
5
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLLANLNotreDame−MobilityPSIESGUMass−MB
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals ● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1
2
3
4
5
● ● ● ●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ● ●
● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
10
20
30
40
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedUGA−CEIDJHU−IDDJHU−APLLANLNotreDame−MobilityPSIUMass−MB
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ●● ●
● ● ●
● ● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
10
20
30
40
●● ●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Virginia
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●● ● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlen
LANLMOBSMSRAOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●●
● ● ●● ● ● ●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●
●
● ● ●●
● ●●
●
Washington**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
●
● ● ●●
● ●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
●●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
● ● ●●
●
●●
●
●
West Virginia**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250N
ew W
eekl
y D
eath
s
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
LSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ●●
●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
50
100
150
200
250
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ● ●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
500
1k
1.5k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Wisconsin**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDS
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUAUCLA
UCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
200
400
600
●●
●●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSGoogle−HSPH
GT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDKarlenLANLMOBS
MSRANotreDame−FREDNotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSIESGCovidCompleteUA
UCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUT
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ●●
●
●
●●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
1k
2k
3k
4k
5k
6k
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
**New weekly deaths may increase in this location over the next four weeks. For these locations, the ensemble forecast indicates a probability of 0.75 or greaterthat more deaths will be reported in week four of the forecast than in the last reported week.
●
● ● ● ●
●
●
●● ●
Wyoming**
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
New
Wee
kly
Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDCMUColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbia
DDSLSHTMGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APL
KarlenLANLMOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidComplete
UAUCLAUCSBUCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTBands: 95% Prediction Intervals
●
● ● ● ●
●
●
●● ●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
●
●●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
Tota
l Dea
ths
ReportedBPaganoUGA−CEIDColumbia−UNCCovid19SimMIT−ORCColumbiaDDSLSHTM
Google−HSPHGT−DeepCOVIDISUJCBJHU−CSSEJHU−IDDJHU−APLKarlenLANL
MOBSMSRANotreDame−MobilityOliver WymanPSICovidCompleteUAUCLAUCSB
UCSD−NEUUMass−MBUMUSCUTWalmart
Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
● ● ● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
Oct−01 Oct−15 Nov−01 Nov−15 Dec−01 Dec−15
0
100
200
300
400
500
●
●
●
●
EnsembleIndividual models Inner Bands: 50% Prediction Intervals
Outer Bands: 95% Prediction Intervals
Update: 2020−11−23 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019−ncov/covid−data/forecasting−us.html
