JHU Competitive Analysis Presentation
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Transcript of JHU Competitive Analysis Presentation
Guest Lecture: Competitive Analysis
August Jackson
august (at) augustjackson (dot) nethttp://www.augustjackson.nethttp://www.twitter.com/8of12
Your Guest Lecturer
Web 2.0 Open Source Intelligence
RSS
Where are we?
• Focus• Gather• Analyze• Apply
• Decisions• Assumptions• Unknowns• Intelligence Questions• Indicators• Sources• Analysis
Analytical Process
Choosing analytical frameworks
How I choose: begin with the end in mind
FAROUT to evaluate analytical frameworks
Analytical Method
Future Orientation
Accuracy Resource-Efficiency
Objectivity Usefulness Timeliness
Stakeholder Analysis
Present to short-term
Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium to high
Business Screening Matrix
Present to short-term
Low to medium
Medium Low Medium Medium
SWOT/TOWS
Present to short-term
Medium Medium Low to Medium
Medium to high
Medium to high
Industry Analysis
Present Medium Medium to high
Medium Medium to high
Medium
Scenario Analysis
Long-term Medium to high
Low to medium
Medium Medium to high
Low to medium
Win/Loss Analysis
Present Medium to high
Low Low to Medium
Medium to high
Low
Strategic analysis: STEEP and PEST
STEEP• Social• Technological• Economic• Environmental• Political
PEST• Political• Economic• Social• Technological
Analytical Method
Future Orientation
Accuracy Resource-Efficiency
Objectivity Usefulness Timeliness
STEEP Long-term Medium High Medium Medium High
PEST Long-term Medium High Medium Medium High
STEEP example: beer
Social Technological Economic Environmental Political
• Drink preferences for Millenials trend towards cocktails• “Hipster” adoption of down market brands such as PBR
• Biotechnology contributions to fermentation• New packaging technologies
• Reduction in disposable income in the West• Growing affluence and income in China, India and Brazil
• Climate change impact on growing wheat, barley and hops• Conflicts over access to water for agriculture
• Current debate on lowering US drinking age to 18• US Government budget deficit and search for new income sources
Adapted from Garland, Eric (2007). Future, Inc: How Businesses can Anticipate and Profit from What’s Next Peck, Garrett (2009). The Prohibition Hangover: Alcohol in America from Demon Rum to Cult Cabernet.
Market analysis: market trend analysis
Diffusion of Innovation Theory
“Where are we on this curve?”
Analytical Method
Future Orientation
Accuracy Resource-Efficiency
Objectivity Usefulness Timeliness
Market Trend Analysis
Short-term Medium High High Low High
Market analysis: market trend analysis
Gartner Hype Cycle
Market analysis: disruptive technology model
“Is there a technology out there that can disrupt out market?”
Market analysis: drivers and inhibitors
Drivers
• Factors that motivate adoption, growth• Technological change• Value drivers for customers
Drivers
• Factors that motivate adoption, growth• Technological change• Value drivers for customers
Inhibitors
• Factors preventing adoption• Customer switching costs• Steep knowledge or experience curve• Uncertainty
Inhibitors
• Factors preventing adoption• Customer switching costs• Steep knowledge or experience curve• Uncertainty
Industry analysis: Porter five forces
Analytical Method
Future Orientation
Accuracy Resource-Efficiency
Objectivity Usefulness Timeliness
Five Forces Present to short-term
Medium to High
High Low Medium Medium
Five forces example: defend low entry barriers
Barriers to Entry• High entry costs• High customer switching
costs• Established brands and
differentiation• Regulation
Strategies to Defend Entry• Keep prices low• Regulatory rent-seeking• Long-term exclusive
contracts with customers and distributors
Industry analysis: value net analysis
Your FirmCompetitors Complementors
Suppliers
Customers
Analytical Method
Future Orientation
Accuracy Resource-Efficiency
Objectivity Usefulness Timeliness
Five Forces Present to short-term
Medium to High
High Low Medium Medium
Industry analysis: value net analysis
Example: Google, AT&T, Verizon Wireless and the FCC in the 2008 700 MHz Wireless Spectrum Auction
Company analysis: business screening matrices
Analytical Method
Future Orientation
Accuracy Resource-Efficiency
Objectivity Usefulness Timeliness
Business Screening Matrix
Present to short-term
Low to medium
Medium Low Medium Medium
Business attractiveness screening matrix
High Medium Low
High Invest to grow the business
Invest selectively, expand where feasible
Focus on income potential
Medium Invest selectively, expand where feasible
Develop selectively for income potential
Harvest or divest
Low Develop selectively and grow on strengths
Evaluate harvesting these businesses
Divest
Business Attractiveness In
dust
ry A
ttra
ctive
ness
Company analysis: SWOT
Analytical Method
Future Orientation
Accuracy Resource-Efficiency
Objectivity Usefulness Timeliness
SWOT/TOWS Present to short-term
Medium Medium Low to Medium
Medium to high
Medium to high
Company analysis: TOWS