Plan 2040 Goal:

Economic Recovery and Prosperity

Atlanta Regional Commission

For more information contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

Plan 2040 Indicators: www.atlantaregional.com/scorecard

Plan 2040 Indicators: www.atlantaregional.com/scorecard

Is Our Economy Diverse Enough To Compete Globally?

• Atlanta is no longer simply competing with other cities in the Southeast or the nation

• Global business leaders see Atlanta with international competitiveness

• Metro Atlanta’s economy must continue to leverage its assets to stay relevant and thrive in this global context

• Key determinants explored here include exports, innovation, competitiveness, employment, Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP), and home price

Source: OnTheMap Program, U.S. Census Bureau

Exports

• Metro areas that seize opportunities in new markets will help boost the country’s economic competitiveness and create jobs locally

• The value of metro Atlanta’s exports has risen by 45% since 2005

Source: International Trade Administration , Brookings Institution “Export Nation 2012”

• While this is undeniably good, other research suggests that metro Atlanta lags behind other large metro areas in overall export activity

• As a share of the Atlanta region’s total metro GDP, only 8% is attributable to exports as of 2010, which ranks metro Atlanta 77th out of the 100 largest metros in the country.

Patents

• Patents are a good way to measure economic progress by indicating new knowledge and new innovations

• Metro Atlanta has increased its share of all patents developed in the 99 largest metro areas, from about 1.5 percent of all patents in 2000 to 1.9 percent by 2011

Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

1.30%

1.40%

1.50%

1.60%

1.70%

1.80%

1.90%

2.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Metro Atlanta: Percent of All Patents in 99 Large Metro Areas

Patents

• Metro Atlanta has taken on an increased role in innovation since 2000, but still ranks fairly low overall

• Atlanta ranks 16th out of the top 25 largest U.S. metros on patents per 10,000 people

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Patents per 10,000 population, 2010: Top 25 Metros

Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

Concentration of jobs in key sectors

• Metro Atlanta a leader nationally in “knowledge” and logistics jobs

• “Knowledge” jobs include IT,

telecom, corporate and regional HQ, professional services and corporate and customer support operations. They are among the highest paying jobs in the region.

• Logistics jobs include supply chain management, transportation services, warehousing and storage and wholesale trade.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Location Quotient by Year: Logistics Hub

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Location Quotient by Year: Knowledge Hub

Values larger than 1 mean metro Atlanta has

higher concentration than nation as a whole

Employment Change, August 2008 – August 2013 (year-over-year percent change)

• During the Great Recession, metro Atlanta’s employment gains lagged those of the nation’s gains.

• For the past year, however, metro Atlanta’s job market has been outperforming that of the nation’s on a year-over-year percent change basis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Change by Industry, August 2012 – August 2013 (year-over-year percent change)

In looking at job gains by sector, metro Atlanta is outpacing the nation in jobs added in Construction and Information, which are critical sectors for metro Atlanta.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Change by Large Metro, August 2012 – August 2013 (year-over-year percent change)

Nationally, metro Atlanta ranks fourth in the percent change in the number of jobs added over the past year (August 2012 – August 2013).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment Change Since Recession, December 2007 – July 2013 (year-over-year percent

change)

Despite impressive gains recently, there is still a little more work to do to get back to pre-recession levels

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Annual Wage Increases, 2000 - 2011 (in 2011 dollars)

In many ways, metro Atlanta’s economic struggles began before the official beginning of the Great Recession. Wage increases lagged behind the national average for much of the 2000 decade.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, CA34

Wage and Compensation Change by Large Metro, Sept. 2012 – Sept. 2013 (year-over-year

percent change)

Since 2012, however, metro Atlanta’s total compensation and wage increases are greater than all other large metro areas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate

• Metro Atlanta’s unemployment rate has been consistently higher than national average since the Great Recession, but the gap has been decreasing since the beginning of FY13

• October 2013: Atlanta’s UE (7.7%) is 0.4% higher than nation’s UE rate (7.3%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Unemployment Rate

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U.S.

Source: Benchmarking Central Ohio, Bureau of Labor Statistics

• GMP measures the total economic output of metro areas

• Atlanta was behind other metros between 2010 and 2011 with stagnant growth

• 2012 preliminary data indicates that Metro Atlanta’s GMP has recovered above pre-recession levels

Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP)

170000

190000

210000

230000

250000

270000

290000

310000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Atlanta GMP: All Industries

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

• The Trough: lowest point for GMP

• Atlanta’s trough was in Q3 of 2009

• Metro Atlanta ranks 10th in GMP recovery among top 25 U.S. metros

Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP)

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5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

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Change in Gross Metropolitan Product Since The "Trough"

• Metro Atlanta is one of the national leaders in home price gains on a year-over-year basis

• Prices are down 16.9 percent when compared to peak prices (July 2007), but are up over 13 percent when compared to 2000

Home Price Index

Source: Case-Shiller Index

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Case Shiller's Home Price Index (January 2000=100)

Source: Case-Shiller Index

• Metros across the country are showing consistent improvement since the Great Recession

• Although home prices are down about 16.9% since the peak, prices in several metros have been suffering more

Home Price Index

-47.1%

-39.3%

-37.8%

-35.3%

-27.2%

-24.3%

-23.4%

-23.2%

-20.3%

-20.1%

-19.7%

-18.6%

-18.2%

-16.9%

-16.6%

-14.7%

-13.4%

-8.0%

-7.8%

4.6%

4.8%

-50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%

NV-Las Vegas

FL-Miami

AZ-Phoenix

FL-Tampa

MI-Detroit

IL-Chicago

CA-San Diego

CA-Los Angeles

Composite-20

NY-New York

MN-Minneapolis

DC-Washington

CA-San Francisco

GA-Atlanta

WA-Seattle

OR-Portland

OH-Cleveland

NC-Charlotte

MA-Boston

TX-Dallas

CO-Denver

Summary

• Atlanta is improving in exports, but is slightly lagging in terms of national average

• Atlanta’s share of patents is increasing, but far from the nation’s patent leaders

• Knowledge and Logistics job sectors are above the national average

• The unemployment rate has not yet moderated to pre-recession levels, and metro Atlanta's rate remains above the national unemployment rate

• Metro Atlanta's recovery from the lowest point (in Q3, 2009) in Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) ranks 10th among the top 25 U.S. metros

• Metro Atlanta is among the nation's leaders in recent home price gains as noted in the Case-Shiller Index

Plan 2040 Goal:

Economic Recovery and Prosperity

Atlanta Regional Commission

For more information contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com