2010 - 2040

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

Prepared by the

Indiana Business Research Center

April 2008

Indiana Population Projections2010 - 2040



• Indiana will add 940,000 residents by 2040 – a 15% increase from 2005

• Indiana’s population will surpass 7 million by 2030 and stand at 7.2 million in 2040

• The senior population will grow 90% by 2040 (1 in 5 Hoosiers will be 65+)

• Indiana’s median age will increase 3.5 years by 2040

Highlights



• 65 of 92 counties will see population growth over this period

• The 10‐county Indy metro area will account for 54% of the state’s growth

• Hamilton County will add >200,000 residents –an 85% increase over 2005

• Marion County will add 141,000 residents, surpassing 1 million residents, by 2040

Highlights



• No assumptions are made about future economic conditions or policy decisions

• These projections rely exclusively on recent rates of migration, fertility, and mortality

• The projections reflect the likely future trends if these rates continue (with some minor assumptions)

About the Projections



• Indiana grew by an average of 350K each decade between 1900 to 2000

• The state will grow an average of 283K per decade between 2000 to 2040

Total Growth

01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Indiana Total Population, 1900 - 2040

Actual Projected



• The 1990s trailed only the ’50s in total growth by decade• Growth will decline slightly each decade through 2040

Total Growth

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000

1900 -1910

1920 -1930

1940 -1950

1960 -1970

1980 -1990

2000 -2010

2020 -2030

Population Growth by Decade

Actual Projected



• Indiana’s share of U.S population will continue to decline as growth trends towards the South and West

• Indiana would need 3 million more residents in 2040 to match the share of U.S population it held in 1970

Total Growth

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Indiana as a % of U.S Population, 1900 - 2040

Actual ProjectedSource: U.S. national projections from the U.S. Census Bureau



• The distribution of Indiana’s population by age will shift dramatically as Baby Boomers enter retirement years

Total Growth

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-plus

280 210 140 70 0 70 140 210 280

Th d

Indiana Population Distribution by Age & Gender, 2005 (thousands)

Female

Male

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-plus

280 210 140 70 0 70 140 210 280

Indiana Population Distribution by Age & Gender, 2040 (thousands)

Female

Male



By 2025:

• Hamilton County will add 169K residents representing 28% of total state growth

• Hendricks and Marion counties will each add 59K (9.6% of total growth apiece)

• 29 counties will lose population

Total Growth



• Hamilton, Hendricks, Boone, Johnson, and Hancock counties will grow by greater than 20% by 2025

Total Growth



• The senior population increases from a 12 to 21% share of the state’s population

• Shares for all other age groups will decline

Aging Population

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Share of Population by Age Group, 2005 to 2040

0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+



• In 2005, there were 2 working age Hoosiers for each non‐working age resident. This ratio drops to 1.5 to 1 by 2040.

Aging Population

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-working Age Group Share of Total Population, 2005 to 2040

Under 15 65 and Over



• Indiana’s median age will increase from 36.3 to 39.8• 75% of counties will have median age above 40

Aging Population

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Distribution of Counties by Median Age, 2005 to 2040

Under 30 30 to 34.9 35 to 39.9 40 or Older



• Populous counties such as Marion, Hamilton, Allen, St. Jos., Elkhart and Porter will have median ages below 40 in 2040

• Youngest counties are characterized by large college student or Amish populations

Aging Population



Aging Population

23.9%1.8%

14.0%61.7%63.7%

54.8%20.8%

-4.4%-15.8%-9.6%

3.6%7.6%7.2%

0.6%-1.6%

-4.4%1.9%

6.1%

85-plus80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Percent Change by Age, 2005 to 2020

134.8%105.3%

92.6%89.3%

60.3%43.8%

13.6%-2.0%-6.2%-7.3%

3.5%7.1%

3.4%1.6%2.5%1.3%5.6%7.9%

85-plus80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Percent Change by Age, 2005 to 2040



• Indiana will lose population in the prime working age groups

• Rural areas will be particularly hard hit

Labor Force

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Percent Change in 25 to 54 Age Group, 2005 to 2040

MSA Counties (46) Non-MSA Counties (46) Indiana Total



• Suburban Indy counties will attract population in the prime working age groups.

• East‐central and north‐central regions of the state will experience significant declines in these age groups

Labor Force



• Expect uneven geographic change in 25–54 group with the Indy metro adding 53K while the state declines on the whole

• Other metros to see growth are Lafayette (7.4%), Elkhart‐Goshen (5.0%), Bloomington ( 3.2%), Fort Wayne (0.4%)

Labor Force

-1.7%

7.2%

-5.1%-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Indiana Indy Metro Remainder of State

Percent Change in Population Age 25 - 54 by Selected Regions, 2005 - 2025



Components of Change

• 20 counties will experience a natural decrease (more deaths than births) between 2005 and 2040.

• Natural decrease counties will mostly be rural.



• 57% if Indiana counties will have a net outmigration over this period

• Suburban Indy counties will attractmigrants

• West‐Central and portions of Southern Indiana will see in‐migration as well.

Components of Change



www.ibrc.indiana.edu

www.stats.indiana.edu

www.census.gov

Technical questions:

Matt Kinghorn, DemographerIndiana Business Research [email protected]

More Information

http://www.ibrc.indiana.edu/

http://www.stats.indiana.edu/

http://www.census.gov/

mailto:[email protected]

2010 - 2040

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