The Atlanta Region Plan 2040 Forecast Preview

Population and Employment

Mike Alexander, AICP

Research Division Chief

Atlanta Regional Commission

malexander@atlantaregional.com

US Regions Share of Growth

Source :Census Bureau

From the 2004 Census Projection

128 Million More People

Between 2010 and 2050

GEORGIA:

9th in Total Population (9,685,744- 2008)

4th in Percentage and Absolute Population Change since 2000

Population Change since 2000G

Georgia 1,499,291- ARC 20-County Forecast Area 1,143,296 (76%)

Population Growth OUTSIDE of the 20-County Area, since 2000, is

greater than the whole State of Alabama 355,995 compared to 214,800

Source : ESRI

Demographics 2009

State Growth

Trends

GDOT Board Districts and the ARC

Forecast (Non-Attainment) Area

GDOT

DISTRICT

Total

Area in

Square

Miles

Area

Inside

ARC

Planning

Area

Percent of

Area Inside

ARC

Planning

Area

Total

Population

Population in

ARC Planning

Area

Percent of

Pop. in

ARC

Planning

Area

001 12252 0 0% 700,607 - 0%

002 10999 0 0% 632,422 - 0%

003 4180 1553 37% 824,699 545,918 66%

004 333 333 100% 726,941 726,941 100%

005 247 247 100% 731,601 731,601 100%

006 695 695 100% 807,546 807,546 100%

007 978 978 100% 940,376 940,376 100%

008 7238 217 3% 712,590 66,539 9%

009 4417 659 15% 831,669 333,870 40%

010 6061 0 0% 729,289 - 0%

011 2718 1144 42% 802,720 575,900 72%

012 8740 0 0% 684,393 - 0%

013 577 577 100% 808,096 808,096 100%

4,944,939

5,473,846

5,925,900

6,453,347

6,929,253

7,377,951

7,829,905

8,256,323

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ARC 20-Cty Population

Forecast Population GrowthARC 20-County Forecast Area

-150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-85

85+

1970 Age Structure Female

Male

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000

The Age Pyramid20-County Forecast Area

Source: Census Population Estimates

Battle of the Bulges: Xs and Zs

Source: Census Population Estimates

-250000 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

2007 Age Structure Female Male

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

250,000

Baby Boomers:

Born between

1944 and 1963

GI and Silent

Generation:

Born before

1944

Generation X :

1964 to 1977

Generation Y:

1978 to 1992

Generation Z:

1993 to 2010

20-County Forecast Area

2050

-300,000 -200,000 -100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

2050 Age Structure

Female

Male

300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000

300,000

Source: PLAN2040 Forecasts v4

20-County Forecast Area

GI and Silent

Generation

and Baby

Boomers:

Old

Generation X :

Age 86 to 73

Generation Y:

Age 72-58

Generation Z:

Age 57 to 40

Generation AB:

Age 10 to 24

Generation AA:

Age 25 to 39

Generation AC:

Age 0 to 9

Population Growth Comparison

United States 20-County AreaRest of Georgia

(139 Counties)Uncalibrated REMI Results

Forecast Population Age Shares20-County Forecast Area

Extreme Aging

85,006

426,445

373,264

319,248

232,548

21,680

259,318

17.7%

11.0%

19.2%

26.7%

33.0%

27.3%

25.1%

21.2%

15.2%

11.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Ages 65-69 Ages 70-74 Ages 75-79 Ages 80-84 Ages 85+ Percentage Change

20-County Forecast Area

Orange Line: 5-Year Total %

Change (Scale on the Right)

Aging Comparison0-14

25-64

15-24

85+

65-84

Share of Population by Ethnicity 1990-204020-County Forecast Area

1,940,175

2,797,292

3,003,487

2,699,950

2,985,928

3,304,406

3,546,530

3,835,118

4,158,004

4,472,567

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ARC 20-Cty Employment

Employment Forecast Growth:20-County Area

Employment Average Annual

Change

Period ARC 20-cty

1990-99 85,671

2000-06 51,386

2007-20 39,775

2021-30 54,816

2031-40 63,593

2010 2010-40 Change % Change

ARC County 2,699,995 1,772,617 66%

Forecasted Employment Change

2010- 2040 20-County Forecast Area

REMI Forecast for the Counties Outside

of the 20-County Area (In thousands)

Uncalibrated REMI Results

Conclusion

• CONTINUED GROWTH – The Atlanta Metro Area , as a hub for the Southeast, will continue to lead

the State in Population and Employment growth. That growth will depend

on National trends, especially energy prices.

• DRAMATIC AGE CHANGE– The Metro Area, and the State, very young now, will age dramatically by

2040, as the Baby Boomers and Generation X will be retirement age. By

2040, the Atlanta Area will have a greater share of senior population than

the Nation will.

• A DIVERSE PLACE– Metro Atlanta, like the Nation, will be a multicultural place in 2040 as the

Hispanic population continues to grow. This change will be most apparent

in the younger age groups.