Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero

NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007 A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

A FIR & Sub-mm View on

Galaxy Formation & Evolution

Taking Stock of Spitzer & SCUBA

Planning for Herschel & SCUBA2

Mattia Vaccari - University of PadovaAlberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero

Thanks also to Carol, Dave, Jim, Matt, Michael, Seb & all the

ISOCAM, ELAIS, SHADES, SWIRE, SPIRE & SCUBA2 folks


Hi there!;-) Mattia Vaccari

Italian, PostDoc in Padova since Sep 05 & previously– MSc in Physics (00) & PhD in Space Science &

Technology (03) @ University of Padova– PostDoc @ Imperial College London (03-05)

Long- Extragalactic Surveys and Space Astronomy– ISO Satellite : Post-Mission ISO-CAM/PHOT Software

Development, ELAIS and HDF-N/S Data Reduction– Spitzer Satellite : SWIRE Consortium – SCUBA@JCMT : SHADES Consortium– SCUBA2@JCMT : Legacy Surveys Consortia– SPIRE@Herschel : Observation Planning, Pipeline

Management + low-and-high-z GT Science– Number Counts, Clustering and Extragalactic

Population Studies from ISO, Spitzer & SCUBA Surveys– Simulations of Instrumental & Science Performance of

Future Space Missions : Herschel, JWST, SPICA & FIRI


The integrated extragalactic background light in the far-infrared and sub-millimeter region of the spectrum is approximately equal to the integrated background light in the optical and UV part of the spectrum. To develop a complete understanding of galaxy formation, this background light must be

resolved into galaxies and their properties must be characterized.

The Cosmic IR Background RadiationResolved Into Sources

Modeling the FIR & Sub-mm Era

Long-wavelength observational astronomy is arguably experiencing its “golden era”, with new facilities (telescopes & instruments) coming on-line in an ever accelerating fashion

The sources making up the very bright and violently evolving universe discovered by IRAS first and the CIRB light later detected by COBE are being (and will increasingly be) detected and characterized at a pace largely reminiscent of optical astronomy

The paradigms of semi-analytical models will need time to properly adjust to and make sense of new results

Simpler and more flexible phenomenological models can be of great help in providing the first clues about the nature of such sources as well as in timely planning development and use of new facilities


The AF08 Model

The AF01 phenomenological model (Franceschini et al. 2001) was rather successful in explaining & “exploring” ISO results

Spitzer & SCUBA data (re)-analyses, however, called for a revamp

Through a simple backward evolution approach, AF08 describes available observables (number counts, z-distributions, L-functions, integrated CIRB levels…) in terms of number and luminosity evolution of four populations slowly or non-evolving disk galaxies [blue dotted lines] type-1 AGNs evolving as shown by UV and X-ray selected

Quasars & Seyferts [green long-short-dashed lines] moderate-luminosity starbursts with peak emission at z ~

1 [cyan dot-dashed lines] ultra-luminous starbursts with peak evolution between z =

2 and z = 4 [red long-dashed lines]NRAO Socorro - 21 Nov 2007 A FIR & Sub-mm View - Mattia Vaccari

Modeling Benchmarks

Spitzer MIPS & SCUBA Number Counts largely available– Spitzer MIPS Deep & Narrow : GOODS & GTO & GO– Spitzer MIPS Wide & Shallow : SWIRE & GTO & GO– SCUBA Deep : Lensing Surveys– SCUBA Wide : SHADES

Spec & Phot Redshift Distributions in the works– Complete Redshift Distributions of 24 (& 70) m sources– Redshift Distributions of SCUBA sources & related headaches

Ultimate Spitzer Luminosity Functions within reach

Extras : AzTEC@JCMT & BLAST surveys being reduced



Spitzer MIPS Counts : 24 m

SWIRE (Shupe in prep)GTO (Chary 04)

but also (not shown)

GTO (Papovich 04)FLS (Fadda 06)

Remarkable agreement!

Most stringent constraintprovided by Spitzer to date


Spitzer MIPS-Ge Counts : 70 & 160 m

SWIRE (Vaccari in prep)FLS (Frayer 2006a)

SWIRE (Vaccari in prep)FLS (Frayer 2006a)GTO & GO (Frayer

2006b)Reasonable agreement but comparison is hampered by poor areal coverage and sensitivity at 70 and 160 m

respectively


SCUBA 850 m Counts

SHADES (Coppin 2006)

SHADES (Coppin 2006)SCUBA Misc (Scott 2006)SCUBA Lensing (Knudsen

2008)

Without ad hoc adjustments we seem to overpredict bright counts by some amount and perhaps more importantly miss the exact locus of their downturn


First Hints At Herschel Counts450 m SCUBA Counts

Smail et al. 2002


First Hints At Herschel Counts350 m CSO Counts

Khan et al. 2007

Fainter data pointfrom CSO

Brighter data pointsfrom rescaling of Smail et al. 2002


Redshift Distribution of 24 m Sources

Overdensities Confirmed

Successful ModelingNo Ad Hoc Adjustments


Z=0-2 24 m Luminosity Functions

GOODS-S + GOODS-N + SWIRE-VVDS Fields (Rodighiero in prep)~ 2000 sources with some of the best spec info available

The determination of redshift-dependent Luminosity Functions require large corrections which depend to a large extent on the adopted SED

templates, and particularly so for IR Bolometric (8-1000 m) Luminosity Functions


Redshift Distribution of SCUBA Sources

Not so bad…


What is Herschel?

Will perform Photometry and Spectroscopy in the FIR and sub-mm region (60-670 μm)

3.5 m Diameter Telescope, ~80K

two cameras/medium resolution spectrometers (PACS & SPIRE) + very high resolution heterodyne

spectrometer (HIFI)

To be launched in late 2008, minimum 3 years lifetime

First Space Observatory at >~ 100 μm


The integrated extragalactic background light in the far-infrared and sub-millimeter region of the spectrum is approximately equal to the integrated background light in the optical and UV part of the spectrum. To develop a complete understanding of galaxy formation, this background light must be

resolved into galaxies and their properties must be characterized.

The Cosmic FIR Background RadiationResolved Into Sources


Constraining Bolometric Luminosity

Herschel bands will be crucial in constraining the bolometric luminosity of galaxies. This will help untangle the contribution of AGN and star-formation

cool/warm dust and thus constrain the star-formation history.

Rest-frame emission from sources @ z=1in Herschel bandsvs model spectra


Wedding Cake Survey

Multi-band P(D) analysis

Structure Formation; clustering on angular scales < 10 arcmin

Lensing, SZ

SEDs of Galaxies Contributing to the CIRB


Herschel EG GT Survey Wedding Cake

http://astronomy.sussex.ac.uk/~sjo/Hermes/FieldsFinal.pdf

Name Area FieldPACS Time

SPIRE Time

70 110 170 250 350 500

- deg^2 - hr hr mJy mJy mJy mJy mJy mJy

Clusters - - 80 100

Level 1 0.04 GOODS-S 230 10+30 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.3 4.0 4.6

Level 2 0.04 GOODS-N 27 10 2.0 2.8 3.0 6.7 8.1 9.2

Level 3 0.25 GOODS-S 34 25 2.2 6.2 6.7 10.5 12.7 14.5

0.25 Groth Strip 34 25 2.2 6.2 6.7 10.5 12.7 14.5

0.25 Lockman 34 25 2.2 6.2 6.7 10.5 12.7 14.5

Level 4 2 COSMOS 110 50 6.0 9.8 10.5 21.1 25.5 29.1

2 XMM-LSS 110 50 18 9.8 10.5 21.1 25.5 29.1

Level 5 10 Spitzer 185 200 18 16.9 18.0 23.6 28.5 32.5

Level 6 50 Spitzer - 150 18 - 120 61 74 84

Time : PACS (659) SPIRE (850) Harwit (10) (Spitzer Depths)


Main Science Driver : Measure

hidden (by dust) energyproduction in the Universe Need to measure the

bolometric dust emission and sample a large area

in the Lbol - z plane

the Wedding Cake SurveyDesigned to sample the L-z plane and probe Lbol density

at high redshift

Star Formation Rate

OT Herschel proposals will push the study to even higher z

Set of blank field Imaging Surveys (“Wedding Cake”), covering a range of field sizes and depths


Comparisons with other Models

Aim : Take stock of models on the market to minimize uncertaintiesOccasion : Seb’s SPIRE High-z Modeling Challenge of July 06

In the pipeline already– Franceschini et al. 2008– Elbaz et al. 2008– Xu et al. 2008– Lagache et al. 2004– Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (A)– Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (E)

Coming along– Rowan-Robinson 2008– Malkan 2008– Pearson 2008

Interested? Then drop me a line at [email protected]


Comparisons With Other Models

Differences of up to an order of magnitude near the peak

Extragalactic Confusion

Two methods are routinely used to evaluate EG confusion

– The “Fluctuations” approach measures rms background fluctuations due to unresolved sources and sets confusion at q (e.g. q=3,4,5) times that level

– The “Counts” approach measures source counts and sets confusion where a maximum number of sources per beam (or rather a minimum number of beams per source, e.g. bps=10,30,50) is reached

Values provided by the two mostly depend on what’s happening

– fainter than the confusion limit (Fluctuations)

– brighter than the confusion limit (Counts) Roughly speaking, the level of agreement between the two

approaches depend on the slope of the counts ~ AT the confusion limit



“Fluctuations” Criterion


“Counts” Criterion

Red lines refer to 10 bps levels


Extragalactic ConfusionChannelChannel PACS1PACS1 PACS2PACS2 PACS3PACS3 SPIRE1SPIRE1 SPIRE2SPIRE2 SPIRE3 SPIRE3

mm 7070 110110 170170 250250 350350 500500

Beam FWHMBeam FWHM 4 .74”4 .74” 6.96”6.96” 10.76”10.76” 17.1”17.1” 24.4”24.4” 34.6”34.6”

3 3 [mJy] [mJy] 0.068030.06803 0.89790.8979 6.9586.958 18.2618.26 23.8623.86 22.1622.16

4 4 [mJy] [mJy] 0.19620.1962 2.0732.073 12.2012.20 27.8927.89 34.4934.49 31.0331.03

5 5 [mJy] [mJy] 0.36910.3691 3.4543.454 17.5217.52 37.3837.38 44.8344.83 39.5739.57

10 bps [mJy]10 bps [mJy] 0.11000.1100 1.2631.263 7.0907.090 14.0014.00 15.2315.23 13.2313.23

20 bps [mJy]20 bps [mJy] 0.30290.3029 2.7462.746 11.8211.82 20.4920.49 21.6521.65 18.3118.31

30 bps [mJy]30 bps [mJy] 0.48870.4887 4.0344.034 15.2315.23 25.4025.40 26.3426.34 21.4921.49

40 bps [mJy]40 bps [mJy] 0.66560.6656 5.1105.110 18.1218.12 29.1829.18 29.9329.93 24.0924.09

50 bps [mJy]50 bps [mJy] 0.83500.8350 6.1076.107 20.4520.45 32.4732.47 33.0533.05 26.1826.18

Due to the different slope in counts, the vs bps is not a one-to-one relation, values being generally & consistently worse than bps ones for SPIRE with respect to PACS


A Pre-Launch Consensus Viewon Herschel EG Confusion Limits


A Pre-Launch Consensus Viewon Herschel EG Confusion Limits

MEAN +- RMS of various models4 values above are arguably

best pre-launch indication( modulo BLAST results )


Simulations : Spitzer 2 Herschel( keeping an eye on SCUBA(2) )

24 m

110 m

350 m

450 m

850 m


What Herschel OT Key ProjectSurveys can we expect (or aim

for)?Rich opportunities exist to extend GT KP mid- & large-area planned surveys (~ 1 deg^2 or larger) to deeper levels &

wider areas

An Herschel Survey of Surveys (SOS)An Herschel Survey of Surveys (SOS)www.mattiavaccari.net/herschel/sos

3 s ~ 10 bps 3 s ~ 10 bps

3 3 ~ 20 bps ~ 20 bps 10 bps10 bps

20 bps 20 bps

Opp. AreaOpp. Area

Opp. Area

Opp. Area

NB : NOT including last-minute changes to GT but still largely valid…NB : NOT including last-minute changes to GT but still largely valid…


Near-Future Prospects

Herschel will be launched ~ 1 yr from now

A new decade in becomes available ==> Discovery Space

Bolometric Emission of Galaxies making up the CIRB

Lots of things are already covered in GT e OT KPsBUT

OT proposals are due in mid-2008

PS : non-extragalactic astronomers are also encouraged to keep their eyes on http://herschel.esac.esa.int & TBD


Herschel AO Schedule (Late 2008 Launch)

Overall (3-yr Baseline Mission) Observing Time Breakdown : ~ 1000 days ~ 20000 hrsGT = 32% & OT = 68%GT = 30% each to 3 PIs, 7% to HSC, 3% divided between 5 Mission Scientists

Commissioning, Performance Verification & Science Demonstration L - L+6m Routine Science Operations L+6m - L+42 m

GT & OT Key Projects AO Issue 01 Feb 2007 GT Key Projects Proposal Deadline 05 Apr 2007 (~ 5000 hr) GT Key Projects Results Announcement 05 Jul 2007 OT Key Projects Proposal Deadline 25 Oct 2007 (~ 5500 hr) OT Key Projects Results Announcement 28 Feb 2008 GT Cycle 1 Projects AO Issue 28 Feb 2008 GT Cycle 1 Projects Proposal Deadline 03 Apr 2008 (~ 1000 hr) GT Cycle 1 Projects Results Announcement 05 Jun 2008 OT Cycle 1 Projects Deadline Late 2008 (~ 5000 hr) GT & OT Cycle 2 Projects Deadline Late 2009 (~ 500 hr + 3000 hr) Extra Time (0.5 yr “expected” extended mission) Later (~ 3000 hr)


What might be in it for you?

A handy modeling code & simulation tool generating– source counts– redshift & luminosity distributions– mock catalogues

at a complete set of relevant FIR & sub-mm wavelengths

A companion tool to estimate confusion limits based on the model above as well as on competing models

A set of simulated surveys reproducing lots of completed & planned surveys by ISO, Spitzer, Herschel, Planck, Akari, SCUBA2 (and soon SPICA & FIRI?), e.g. the Herschel GT Wedding Cake and the SCUBA2 Legacy Surveys

Hopefully sometime soon publicly available through the www


FIR & Sub-mm Surveys come of ageThe Multi- XID Problem

The tens/hundreds of sources which will be detected by Herschel (and SCUBA2, the LMT, the CCAT, the envisaged Antarctic Submillimeter Observatory…) will pose a challenge of new proportions when it comes to identifying them and make sense of their SEDs– Large areas (tens of sq deg)– Imaging in several FIR/sub-mm bands, with different resolutions and

sensitivities and sources often individually detected only in some bands.– Inhomogeneous ancillary data– Stacking and positional priors on lower-resolution images will become

increasingly important techniques, together with maximum-likelihood identification methods based on average properties of large samples

Pioneering efforts at identifying SCUBA sources through radio imaging by Blain, Chapman, Ivison & friends could only be reproduced over relatively small areas, even with EVLA, but it’ll be interesting to see what can take its place for the larger areas

Shallow Spitzer MIPS 24 micron imaging seems e.g. to be only slightly worse than extant VLA radio data for this purpose (see e.g. Ivison et al 2007 and Clements, Vaccari et al. in prep for SCUBA sources in SHADES/SXDF), but introduces further selection effects and won’t be available in the near future (and to a limited extent with JWST)


Confusion at MIR-to-Sub-mm s

SWIRE50 2

HERMES70 2

SCLS20/50 2

? LMT ?


Thanks!

“Don't clap too loudly - it's a very old world”Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead

Mattia VaccariMattia [email protected]@mattiavaccari.net

www.mattiavaccari.netwww.mattiavaccari.net

Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova Alberto Franceschini & Giulia Rodighiero

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