Learning Scenarios
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Transcript of Learning Scenarios
Learning Scenarios
Willem Manders
Hans de Zwart
Laura Overton
Charles Jennings
David Mallon
“Scenarios are stories about the future, but their purpose is to make better decisions in the present”
"When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed"
http://learningscenarios.org
@lrnscen #lrnscen
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
Today (from 10:00 – 13:00)Workshop participants
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
This afternoonWillem, Hans and interested others
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
During the conferenceAll Business Educa participants
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
After the conferenceEverybody individually + teleconference
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
Identifying driving forces
adapted from Kees van der Heijden
The Systems Iceberg
(adapted from Peter Senge)
News events
Patterns of systembehaviour (Trends)
Deep system structure(Driving Forces)
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
Uncertainties...
In 60 minutes:
Time horizon: 5 – 10 years out (2015-2020)
1. Brainstorm key trends and uncertainties
Make sure to capture extreme outcomes:
2. Cluster, prioritise and eliminate duplicates
3. Report back to the whole group
Introduction to scenarios
Brainstorming and clusteringtrends & uncertainties
Create mini-scenarios
Consolidate scenarios
Signs and signals
Review learningchallenges and strategy
In 60 minutes:
1. Put two key independent uncertainties in a matrix
2. Describe scenario characteristics for each quadrant
3. Create a name for each quadrant
4. Report back to the whole group
What is next?
We will consolidate the scenarios and present them tomorrow
We need your help!
Our minimum requirements:
1. A newspaper headline for 2020
2. Three signals from the conference
that relate to a particular scenario
3. Reflection on how this impacts your strategy
Touch base Friday afternoon...
Touch (virtual) base in two months?
Sunset in SarasotaBy Flickr user livingonimpulseLicensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) license
Chatham house© 2011 Google
Past and Future© Alex Slobodkin (licensed via istockphoto)
Tip of the iceberg© paul kline (licensed via istockphoto)
Decision making© mattjeacock (licensed via istockphoto)
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