INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat Advisory MONTHLY RISK FORECAST FEBRUARY 2016 Possible health...

w Spotlight - Pakistan: Nearly 60 killed in terror attacks in the first month of the year, with Pakistani Taliban launching several attacks across the country

w Sri Lanka: Sinhale campaign raises alarm over the rising Buddhist extremism in the country

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

FEBRUARY 2016

Possible health alert given the likelihood of an outbreak of swine flu during winters

Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti celebrations across

th Maharashtra on February 19

Possibility of sporadic political violence in West Bengal and Assam in the run up to the state elections in April/May 2016

w Agitation by student groups across major cities to express solidarity with a University of Hyderabad student who committed suicide

The Month That Was

Forecast For February

w Nepal: Madhesi protesters intensify agitation with several instances of violence reported in the Terai region

India’s Neighbourhood

Naxal Trends: establish bases in the border areas of Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh along with southern states of India

With security forces intensifying operations in Chhattisgarh, Maoists have looked to

Expert Speak: Islamic State and Cyber Terrorism

w High security alert in the country ahead of Republic Day; 20 terror suspects detained across India

w Attack on Pathankot Air Base exposes the loopholes in security of critical infrastructure establishments

w Afghanistan: Amid increase in violent attacks by the Taliban, the group lays down conditions for joining peace talks

w Bangladesh: Government crackdown on the activities of Jamaat ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh

w Maldives: Government agrees to let ex-President fly to UK for surgery without 'hostage' guarantee

February 2016

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Event Calendar

w Heavy fog conditions lead to significant travel delays across North India

w Myanmar: Peace talks with insurgent groups begin in Nay Phi Daw, as new Parliament is set to convene in February

Late arrival of winters this year could result in cold and foggy conditions prevailing into parts of February, leading to travel disruptions in North India

w February 13th: Anniversary of 2010 Pune

German Bakery bombing

w February th th 13 to 18 : ‘Make in India’ event

in Mumbai

w February th 15 : Jat protests in Haryana

w February th 18 : Anniversary of 2007

Samjhauta Express bombings

w February th 19 : Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj

Jayanti

thw February 1 : 1 Death anniversary of JKLF

founder Mohammad Maqbool Bhat

w February th14 : Valentine’s Day

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25

w February st 21 : Anniversary of Hyderabad

terror attack of 2013

w February th 27 : Anniversary of Godhra train

carnage of 2002

The Month That Was

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A high security alert continued throughout the country in the past month. Following the nd

terror attack at Pathankot Air Force Station on January 2 , and the possibility terror attack on Republic Day, security agencies took prophylactic measures to deter further possible terror strikes. Several intelligence inputs suggested the possible presence of multiple terror cells in the major cities of the country. Acting on these inputs the National Investigation agency (NIA) and local police services made arrests across the country, in the latter part of January. A total of 14 persons, suspected of being involved in terror activities were arrested

ndon January 22 . Six suspects were arrested in Karnataka (four in Bengaluru, one each in Tumkur and Mangaluru), four in Hyderabad and two each from Mumbai and Uttar Pradesh.

thThe operations continued with two more suspected terrorists detained on January 26 . One suspected terrorist was arrested from Hyderabad, while the other was apprehended in

thMaharashtra. This wave of arrests began on January 20 when four men were arrested from Uttarakhand state, who were allegedly plotting to target the ongoing Kumbh Mela at Haridwar in the state along with trains headed there, as well as public locations in the national capital. The security agencies stated that these detained persons were members of Janood-ul-Khalifa-e-Hind (Army of Caliph of India), the group which has pledged allegiance to Islamic State. They were picked up for allegedly planning to carry out terror strikes in multiple cities of the country. These arrests can be treated as a confirmation of Islamic State's presence in India. In recent months, the group has sought to increase its reach beyond its traditional battlefield of Syria and Iraq through major attacks in Paris, Beirut and Jakarta. India also possibly could be on the group's radar, especially to establish a base in another South Asian country after Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the group already has some presence. Previously, in India, only members of the Islamic State's recruitment cell had been identified and arrested. In addition, earlier, a small group of radicalised youth from India have attempted to travel to Syria to join the Islamic State.

High security alert in the country ahead of Republic Day; 20 terror suspects detained across India

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Attack on Pathankot Air Base exposes the loopholes in security of critical infrastructure establishments

The Air Force Station in Pathankot (Punjab) was attacked by a group of five heavily armed nd

militants in the early morning hours of January 2 . The militants were dressed in army fatigues and had used a stolen vehicle with an official police beacon that allowed them to gain initial access to the military base. The total operation to sanitise the area of militants ran for over two days. While four attackers were neutralised on day one, the two other militants were killed later. The attack was claimed by the United Jihad Council, a conglomerate of Kashmir-centric jihadi groups based in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. However, the Indian security forces believe that this attack was the handiwork of Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM); the same group believed to be behind the attack on the Indian consulate in Afghanistan at Mazar-i-Sharif, in the previous week. Weeks after a fidayeen attack on the Pathankot airbase, several key questions remained unanswered. If indeed there was good intelligence, why was the airbase so poorly guarded? After intelligence reports of an imminent terror attack on Pathankot Air Force base, a team of the National Security Guard's (NSG) Black Cat Commandos was deployed at the air base. Prompt ground action ensured that the terrorists could not hit the Indian Air Force's MiG 21 Bison fighters or Mi-35 choppers on the ground. However, the cracks in the

thsecurity system were evident at the 12 Wing Air Force Base, which shares its border with Behlana village. The barbed wire fencing on the boundary was found damaged at various points, which could easily provide an easy passage for any intruder to enter or to be in the vicinity of the base area. At Pathankot, the vacuum was not in the NSG's actions, but in the political decision-making which was ad hoc and un-institutionalised. A well-conceived and organised policy framework would have put into action a series of steps from political decisions to operational procedures.

Agitation by student groups across major cities to express solidarity with a University of Hyderabad student

who committed suicide

A wave of protests by the student groups was witnessed across the country, following the suicide of a PhD scholar at the University of . Student demonstrations and rallies were witnessed in Hyderabad, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata and Pune. Protesting students were also detained at Central Park in Connaught Place area of Delhi. The suicide

thincident is understood to have taken place on January 17 . After reports emerged of fights between two student political groups, five students (of one student group) were barred from using hostel and other facilities at the University, in December last year. The particular student is understood to have committed suicide possibly due to depression over the expulsion, but the exact cause it not known. The student community alleges unfair treatment on part of college authorities to these students, and since then protests have been sparked across the country, and have continued throughout the rest of the month. Protests are expected to continue into February as well.

The protesting students demanded the resignation of the Union Minister of Human Resources and Development and another union minister representing a constituency in Hyderabad. To register their displeasure over inaction by the government, student groups in

thHyderabad went on a hunger strike at the University of Hyderabad campus on January 28 . Significant police deployment has been continuously maintained at and around the university. The issue is sensitive in nature as there is a communal angle to the whole incident, with the student being from the Dalit caste. The rallies and demonstrations have the potential to quickly turn into unrest and clashes with police personnel. Police action was witnessed against student protesters in the agitations held at Delhi and Hyderabad.

Opposition political parties have used the incident to further their own agenda against the central government, by supporting the various protesting student groups. With momentum on side of the student protesters, the agitation can be expected to continue.

Hyderabad

The Month That Was


Heavy fog conditions lead to significant travel delays across North India

During most part of January, the cold wave and fog conditions continued to sweep across most parts of North India, including the national capital and the NCR region, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, disrupting the schedules of flights and trains. Mercury levels dropped significantly in most places in North India, especially in latter half of the month. In Uttar Pradesh, most areas of the state were reported to be enveloped in fog, crippling road and rail transports. Over three dozen trains were running late and the schedule of several flights was also affected. As many as 17 trains of North Western Railways including Khajuraho-Udaipur, Delhi-Jaisalmer, Howrah-Jodhpur Express, were delayed due to fog in the northern parts of the State. With cold wave-like conditions being witnessed in the Kashmir region, further inclement weather can be expected in the coming month.

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Forecast for February


thChhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Jayanti celebrations across Maharashtra on February 19 thOn February 19 , Maharashtra celebrates the birth anniversary of Chhatrapati Shivaji

thMaharaj, the legendary 17 century warrior king of the region and the founder of the Maratha Empire. The celebrations are particularly grand in Mumbai; other cities like Pune and Nashik too have elaborate celebrations. In Mumbai, the major hub of festivities is at Shivaji Park in Dadar (Central Mumbai), with massive rallies held at the venue. It is a holiday across the state, with most offices and educational institutions closed.

The city of Mumbai is heavily guarded by the police force, which will be deployed in high numbers to maintain the law and order situation during the event's proceedings. Personnel from Rapid Action Force, State Reserve Police Force, and Home Guards are also deployed. The Navy and Coast Guards usually provide necessary assistance at the beaches. Helicopters are used for aerial cover and closed circuit television cameras (CCTVs) are installed at major waterfronts and roads. Mass gatherings, rallies and stringent security checks are likely to hinder traffic movement at many places, especially in Mumbai.

Possible health alert given the likelihood of an outbreak of swine flu during winters

There have been some reports of swine flu cases and the resultant fatalities, since the onset of winters. Although the disease has not yet shown signs of a full-blown outbreak as last year, its peak months are February and March. Hence, individuals and healthcare providers will need to remain on high alert. Already, there have been four swine flu-related deaths reported in Maharashtra in January 2016. In Ludhiana (Punjab) alone, there have already been eight deaths and nearly 65 cases reported in January. Swine flu cases have been reported elsewhere too, including in parts of Delhi/NCR, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The H1N1 influenza virus attack is more likely in winter months and the Indian Medical Association and the Health Ministry are pinning hopes that the flu will wane away with the rise in atmospheric temperature over the coming weeks. However, variation in temperature is considered favourable for the growth of any virus or bacteria and there might be a steep rise in the number of cases in February and March too, before weather conditions begin to stabilise.

Symptoms include fever (but not always), cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, watery, red eyes, body aches, headache, fatigue, diarrhoea, nausea and vomiting. The H1N1 symptoms take about one to three days to develop after the patient is exposed to the virus. The virus spreads from one person to another via droplet infection through cough, sneeze and touch. Precautions include frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with infected persons or their environment. Whenever possible, avoid crowded enclosed spaces and close contact with people suffering from acute respiratory infections. Infected persons should be encouraged to practice cough etiquette, which is maintaining distance, covering coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or clothing, and washing hands. Most people recover within a week, without any special treatment. Patients must stay at home, keep warm, and drink plenty of fluids to prevent dehydration. Antiviral drugs like Oseltamavir (Tamiflu) and Zanamivir (Relenza) are effective, but are prescribed only in severe cases.

Home

Forecast for February


Possibility of sporadic political violence in West Bengal and Assam in the run up to the state elections in

April/May 2016

The states of West Bengal and Assam are set to go for assembly elections in either April or May of this year. As has been witnessed during the past elections, there is a high possibility of election-related violence not only during the campaigning phase but also in the months preceding the elections. Such violence is most common between rival political parties but instances of local insurgent or militant groups targeting ethnic and religious minorities is also expected. There remains the possibility of insurgent groups undertaking small-scale attacks, especially in Assam, so as to dissuade people from taking part in the election process.

rdIn West Bengal, on January 3 , violence broke out in Malda district when a mob attacked a police station in Kaliachak area of the district. In election year, political parties immediately jumped the bandwagon to extract political mileage from this incident. More such incidents of political violence could be expected in the state, in the coming months. In addition, there remains the high possibility of clashes between the state's two main rival political parties, the ruling Trinamool Congress and the opposition, Left Front.

In Assam, since the start of the year there have been regular low-intensity grenade blasts reported in various parts of the state, which have sometimes even resulted in deaths. As the elections draw nearer, the likelihood and frequency of such attacks by militant groups could increase. There is also a high possibility of the Central Government announcing some kind of a pact with United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) thereby creating a positive political environment for the BJP that sees some hope in Assam for these elections. Political parties might use various militant groups to their advantage in the coming elections, which might create an environment of political tensions and violence in the state.

Home

Late arrival of winters this year could result in cold and foggy conditions prevailing into parts of February,

leading to travel disruptions in North India

The winter arrived later in India than usual, with predictions that the winter season might linger into parts of February, as a result of this condition. For all of December and the first two weeks of January, temperatures in most parts of India were substantially higher than normal. Warm but January winter was record breaking. Most parts of India managed to break their winter record in 2016. While Jammu (Jammu & Kashmir) recorded its coldest night in 70 years as temperatures plunged to 0.5°C, Puri (Odisha) received record winter rain in 50 years. Delhi shivered as temperatures plummeted to season's lowest. In addition, foggy conditions were witnessed across North India which lead to significant delays and in some cases, cancellations of trains and flights. Roads accidents were also reported due to the prevailing foggy conditions. The cold weather conditions are expected to linger in North India through most parts of February. An active Western Disturbance is approaching the hills of North India and is expected to start affecting weather. The active weather system could give fairly widespread rain and snow over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and scattered rainfall and snow over Uttarakhand. The influence of this weather system could also percolate to Punjab where light rain might be observed during the period. It is predicted that the dense to very dense fog would continue to persist in morning hours, for early part of February. However, duration of fog will reduce gradually due to the thinning of the fog layers. Trains and flights are expected to get delayed due to such weather conditions. It is recommended to take adequate precautions while travelling, especially during early morning and late night hours.

Afghanistan

Amid increase in violent attacks by the Taliban, the group lays down conditions for joining peace talks After 14 years of the US war against Taliban, currently, the group's control of territories Afghanistan is highest since the US invasion in October 2001. Nearly 30 per cent of Afghanistan is, at present, controlled by Taliban, as per US military figures. As has been a trend in the recent past, last month too, the country witnessed a sharp spike in attacks by Taliban, including two insider attacks. In one attack, a policeman in Oruzgan province, poisoned 10 of his colleagues who were then shot by the Taliban, with whom the rogue policeman was working with. The security situation in Oruzgan and its neighbouring province of Helmand is highly fragile, as the government forces are not able to tackle the Taliban assault there. The group also made good on its promise to target Afghan media when it attacked the office of Tolo TV in Kabul, killing seven people. In addition, a Taliban attack on the

thcritical power line supplying to Kabul, plunged large part of the city into darkness on January 26 .

Amid the spike in violence by the group, in the latter half of the month, the Taliban laid down some preconditions, that needed to be met before they entered the peace talks. The Taliban demands include the release of an unnamed list of prisoners, removal of the group's senior leaders and officials from US and UN sanctions list, and a formal recognition of Taliban's political office. The Taliban also clear reiterated its demand that Western forces must leave Afghanistan and the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,” the name of the Taliban government, be restored.

Nepal

Madhesi protesters intensify agitation with several instances of violence reported in the Terai region

stThree people were killed on January 21 when police fired on Madhesi protesters trying to disrupt a gathering which the Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was attending. Eight others were also injured in the firing that took place at Rangeli Bazaar town of Morang district. The protesters tried to attack a pro-Constitution rally organized by the youth wing of the governing Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), party of the Prime Minister. In continuation of the protests, the Madhesi parties rejected government's proposed amendments to Nepal's new Constitution, and announced the launch of a fresh protest programme to pressure the government into accepting their demands. The United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF), comprising of four Madhesi parties, decided to organise various forms of protests in the Terai region bordering India. Nepal's Parliament passed two amendment proposals for a fresh delimitation to increase the number of constituencies in the Terai area and for proportional inclusion of minority communities in state bodies. The amendments were rejected by the UDMF, which described them as incomplete because they do not address the grouping's main demand for fresh demarcation of federal boundaries.

Madhesi parties have been calling for more constitutional rights since August 2015, and clashes between protesters and the police have left more than 55 people dead. The UDMF, which is leading the protests, wants state boundaries to be redrawn to give the Madhesi communities more power. The Madhesi protesters are seeking a package deal for their 11 demands. The border points on Nepal's border with India, which accounts for nearly 70 per cent of Indo-Nepal trade, have been blocked since September 2015, by the protesters. The ongoing protests and blockades in the Terai region have resulted in an acute fuel crisis, making it difficult for academic institutions, commercial establishments and relief centres to run smoothly. The country is facing shortage of fuel, medicine and other essential supplies due to the blockade. Towards the end of the month, it was reported that there was movement of goods at the Birgunj border, the main border point between India and Nepal, despite the ongoing protests in the region.



Home

Peace talks with insurgent groups begin in Nay Phi Daw, as new Parliament is set to convene in FebruaryThe Union Peace Conference in Nay Phi Daw, held in early January, had representatives from the government, Parliament, army, ethnic armed groups and various political parties. The conference witnessed unanimous support for several non-controversial proposals. It follows a ceasefire agreement, signed in October 2015, between the outgoing government and eight armed groups. However, many believe that the conference would achieve very less as Myanmar's more active ethnic rebel armies either refused to show up or were blocked by the Burmese army. The ethnic armed groups have been fighting for greater autonomy or outright independence for several years. Existing divisions became open conflict shortly after independence in 1948 and the departure of the British, who had attempted to keep the country's Buddhist majority in check by granting powers to ethnic areas, powers which were later recentralised, despite constitutional promises of autonomy. Meanwhile, the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi, which won the

stelection in November 2015, is due to take power in March this year. The newly-elected parliament will convene on February 1 , ushering in a new era of democratic reform under a government led by the NLD. The upper and lower houses of parliament and the military, which holds a quarter of the seats in the legislature by appointment, will each put forth a candidate for President. Lawmakers will cast votes for the candidates, and the winner will be the President, while the others fill the two Vice-Presidential slots. The new government will have to overcome its relative political inexperience as civil wars continue in Myanmar's ethnic minority borderlands, despite a nascent peace process. The new government will also have to handle the country's corrupt bureaucracy and also the majority of the population's struggle to access basic services.

Sinhale campaign raises alarm over the rising Buddhist extremism in the country Sri Lanka's minority religious groups are concerned after Buddhist hardliners reacted angrily to the President's proposed new Constitution. President Maithripala Sirisena's new Constitution would decentralise power in a bid to prevent ethnic tensions in the country. However, Buddhist hardliners feel it contains provisions that regulate the power of the Buddhist clergy. The announcement came after the launch of an ultranationalist movement under the name “Sinhale” allegedly by the members of the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS). The campaign had an event in Kandy where participants carried Buddhist flags as well as distorted national flags which only had the lion's symbol without orange and green colour strips representing the ethnic and religious minorities in the country. Following the campaign launch, instances of posters and spray paints of the word 'Sinhale' triggered reactions from different groups and activists. Human rights groups in the country believe the campaign has the potential of sparking communal clashes between the Muslim and Sinhalese community. Meanwhile, The Muslim Council of Sri Lanka urged the government to apprehend those involved in the incidents.

Sinhala Buddhist extremist organisations such as Bodu Bala Sena (Buddhist Brigade or BBS), Sihala Ravaya (Sinhala Voice) and Ravana Balakaya (Ravana Brigade) have often resorted to violent protests against minority communities in Sri Lanka. In 2014, the BBS instigated political violence in the southern city of Aluthgama where four Muslims were killed and dozens injured, by Sinhala-Buddhist mobs. The extremist Buddhist groups were quite vociferous and had enormous influence under the former President's regime. It was widely speculated that these organisations operated with the consent of the top members of the former administration. These organisations repeatedly, still, make provocative communal speeches, encouraging attacks on Muslims and Christians, and their places of worship, accusing these minorities of destroying the “Sinhala Buddhist heritage” of Sri Lanka. With the government planning to criminalise hate speech and limit the powers of religious organisations, it remains to be seen as to how effective the move would be.

Sri Lanka



Myanmar

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Maldives

Government agrees to let ex-President fly to UK for surgery without 'hostage' guaranteeThe former President of Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, who was sentenced to 13 years' imprisonment was flown out of the island nation to undergo a back surgery in the United Kingdom. The former president had sought permission to go abroad for a back surgery, but correctional service had repeatedly denied the request insisting that the micro discectomy surgery could be done in the Maldives. The trip came days after Mohamed Nasheed's legal team explained about his situation and lobbied lawmakers in the United States for sanctions. There are allegations that the government was insisting a relative of the former President stay behind in Maldives and sign a document that would subject the relative to criminal prosecution if Nasheed did not return; however, this did not happen. According to the latest agreement, Nasheed is expected to fly back in 30 days if he does not have surgery, and 45 days if he has an operation. He can request an extension for medical reasons. The government dismissed claims that the medical leave for Nasheed's surgery in the UK came after international pressure, insisting that it was a "humanitarian initiative" by the government.

The jailing of former President Nasheed and other politically motivated trials has made Maldives the subject of mounting international criticism. The government of President Abdulla Yameen is considered dictatorial in its style of governance, suppressing any voices of dissent. International pressure was further fuelled after a UN panel ruled Nasheed's incarceration illegal. In a recent development, the European Parliament passed a resolution condemning the human rights abuses of President Abdulla Yameen's government, and calling for targeted sanctions to be imposed on his officials and supporters in the business community. Nasheed was elected president in the country's first multiparty polls in 2008, ending 30 years of autocratic rule by current President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom's half-brother. He resigned in 2012 amid weeks of public protests over his arrest of a judge. Nasheed lost to Gayoom in a disputed presidential election in 2013.



Bangladesh

Government crackdown on the activities of Jamaat ul-Mujahideen BangladeshThe security forces in Bangladesh have intensified its operations against the banned, terrorist group, Jamaat ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). In early part of January, police shot and killed two members of JMB, which is blamed for a spate of recent attacks on minorities and secular thinkers in the country. Two members of the group were killed in an exchange of gunfire after police raided their hideout on the outskirts of the capital, Dhaka. The crackdown on the extremists in the country continued throughout the month, as five radical Islamists were sentenced to ten years in prison by a Bangladesh court after being found guilty of involvement in a wave of bombing attacks in 2005. The

thJMB had detonated almost 500 bombs, nearly simultaneously, on August 17 , 2005, across 300 locations in 50 Bangladeshi cities. The group had been suspected of lying low since six of its leaders were executed in 2007, but the group seems to have become active again in 2015, including supposedly launching an attack on a Shia shrine and shooting three foreigners, two of whom lost their lives.

Islamist violence has been on the rise in Bangladesh, since last year, with four bloggers and a publisher killed, along with activists and religious minorities at the targeted end of terrorists. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for several of the attacks and is believed to be stepping up its efforts to recruit from the country with a vast majority of Sunni Muslims (the faction of Islam that Islamic State is associated with). The Bangladesh government, however, denies that Islamic State has a presence in the country, but acknowledges that there are home-grown terrorists who could be taking direction from foreign terrorist groups. The Islamic State has openly supported JMB and claimed it to be a proper jihad organisation. JMB is said to be behind some of the recent attacks and the Islamic state could possibly use it to spread its influence in the country.

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Spotlight - Pakistan


2015 witnessed a marginal decline in terrorist attacks in Pakistan, as compared to the previous years. The decline in attacks was attributed the various anti-terrorist operations by security forces including Operation Zarb-e-Azb and Karachi operations, as well as implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP). However, in the first month of 2016, Pakistan witnessed a sudden surge in terrorist attacks in which at least 60 people were killed. In one terrorist attack, at least 15 people were killed and several others were injured when a suicide bomb blast occurred outside a polio

thvaccination centre in Quetta on January 13 . Five Pakistani soldiers were killed in another incident,

thwhen a bomb exploded next to their vehicle in Balochistan province on January 18 . The next day, at least 11 people were killed and 31 others injured as a suicide bomber blew himself up near a check post in Karkhano Market, adjacent to

thJamrud in Khyber Agency. In another attack on January 20 , terrorists open fired on the students and faculty members, killing at least 21 people and injuring several others at Bacha Khan University near Peshawar. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for all these attacks. The TTP also asserted that it would target colleges and schools in the future too, over allegations of promoting democratic governance instead of Muslim theocracy.

TTP or Pakistani Taliban claims itself to be a coalition of factions of Islamic militants that want to bring Sharia rule in Pakistan. The peak of the TTP's power came in 2009, two years after its formal foundation, when fighters from various factions surged out of their remote mountain strongholds along Pakistan's western frontier. Over the last year or two, a combination of drone strikes and military offensives by the Pakistani Army has weakened the movement, killing successive commanders and forcing factions out of their bases, and driving them into hiding. The Pakistani Taliban who controlled swathes of territory in the northwest tribal region of the country, have been beaten back by the repeated military operations. Pakistan security forces killed and arrested hundreds of suspected militants under a major crackdown launched after TTP terrorists massacred nearly 150 people, majority children, at a military-run school in the north-western city of Peshawar in December 2014. However, the recent attack on the university and the attack on the school in 2014 has rekindled public fear, of terrorists targeting 'soft' targets. An increasing willingness by terrorists to aim at soft targets is now posing a serious challenge for the government and security forces.

Recent reports also suggest the attack on the university and other soft targets involving children and women have fractured the TTP with many commanders leading their fighters across the frontier into Afghanistan, or simply going underground. It was evident when after one commander claimed responsibility for the university attack, the principal spokesman for the group issued a denial in which he described the killing of students in such an establishment as un-Islamic. This has been both an advantage and a disadvantage. On the upside, a lack of unified decision-making leads to fractures in the group into multiple factions. However, if one commander is killed, or a base destroyed, the impact on other factions is limited. With the security forces trying to drive out the terrorist group from the frontier zones, the government has to address the root causes of the problem such as the economic and political marginalisation in the region, the mass of weaponry in those areas, the growth of intolerant conservative religious doctrine over decades, and the spread of a radical worldview. Unless the government revises its policies to address these issues, the region would continue to serve as a safe haven for terrorist groups.

Nearly 60 killed in terror attacks in the first month of the year, with Pakistani Taliban launching several

attacks across the country

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Along with the sustained ground campaign by Daesh (Islamic State) in the territories of Iraq and Syria, the group appears to be very focused on leveraging its reach and penetration on the Internet as well. The terrorist group continues to have a significant presence on social media where it distributes extensive propaganda related to the battle operations it carries out and its governance initiatives in important cities of Ramadi, Mosul and Raqqa. Daesh differentiates itself as a modern terrorist organisation, distinct from older terror groups such as Al Qaeda, as a group with both conventional as well as cyber warfare capabilities. The group's official cyber wing has carried out attacks before, though its effectiveness has declined dramatically following the death of the cyber wing's chief in a drone strike earlier last year. The group's cyber capabilities are not a major threat to Western society, in near future, in terms of data breaches. However, information security analysts believe this can change rapidly with the group presenting newer threats every day, through its evolving capabilities. The threat of “freelance” cyber jihadA significant threat comes in the form of "Cyber Jihadists". The rise of the information technology wing of Daesh and related propaganda has led to the popularising of cyber jihad where jihadists target computer networks to bring down websites and steal data. These "freelance jihadists" could be acting alone or as part of a hacker group, and as such remain difficult to trace. Reports coming from the Daesh's headquarters in Raqqa suggest that the jihadists may have created a mobile application that can be used even by unskilled cyber jihadists to launch crippling Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks against websites. DDoS attacks flood websites with fake traffic, straining network traffic capacities, and have been successfully used against some of the world's biggest companies and key departments of national governments. It appears that Daesh's hackers carried out a major test of the app's capabilities in December 2015 by launching an audacious attempt to bring down root servers which keep the worldwide Internet operational. While the attack was ultimately unsuccessful, it resulted in a temporary slow-down of Internet services across the globe, and has been described as an unprecedented attempt to strike at the heart of modern Western society. Cyber Jihadists proved their capabilities with two significant attacks in 2015 - data of serving personnel was stolen from Pentagon servers and published online, and simultaneously, the twitter account of United States Central Command was hacked and threatening messages posted on it. Daesh continues to provide instruction and support to these cyber cells and similar attempts to target western institutions will continue to take place. Cyber Jihad handbookInstruction and guidance to would-be jihadists is an integral part of Daesh's propaganda. Along the lines of Daesh's official magazine 'Dabiq', another magazine was released in December 2015 by supporters of the group. The magazine, named 'Kybernetiq' is similar to Dabiq in the sense that it looks to instruct lone-wolves, except, in the art of cyber warfare. It is meant to be a handbook for cyber jihadists across the world and while the first edition was published in German, translations to other languages are expected soon. On the cover of the magazine, a USB thumb drive is equated with a bullet, highlighting the ever-changing nature of warfare. The 15-page

Islamic State and Cyber Terrorism

Expert Speak


- Shreekant Road

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document features articles that advise would-be-cyber jihadists on using secure virtual communications and choosing alternative mobile applications to avoid surveillance by intelligence agencies. One of the featured articles in the magazine focuses on methods to evade detection by worldwide security agencies, during online activities. This includes detailed information on how meta-data associated with Internet usage is used by governments to track jihadist activities online. Cyber terrorism is the next greatest challenge facing governments and security agencies, and in many ways it can be more devastating than conventional attacks. Theoretically, attackers can take down entire financial networks, power grids, target airline operations and any other operations that are computer based. There are 15 billion connected devices in the world at the moment, which could increase to 50 billion by 2020. All of these devices remain vulnerable to cyber-attacks. The dynamic sphere of cyber warfare means institutions and organisations must continuously update their network security processes and protocols to ensure the threat of a cyber-attack is never actualised.

Expert Speak


Shreekant Road, Analyst, MitKat Advisory Services : He is part of MitKat's Risk Monitoring and Advisory team, based out of Bengaluru.

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Naxal Tracker - February

2015


January events and incidents

Naxals or Maoists are militant far-left radical Communist groups operating in India. Inspired by the doctrines of Mao Zedong, they work to overthrow the government and upper classes by violence. They are considered as a terrorist organization under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of India (1967).

Naxalites activities have spread to about 82 districts across 10 states, though some are very moderately affected. Maoist incidents have accounted for almost 60 per cent of terrorism-related violence in India over the last decade. These include intimidation, killings of innocent civilians, reprisal killings, abductions and kidnappings, IED blasts and the destruction of government and private property. In many of the areas of their influence, the Maoists have been collecting taxes and dispensing instant and brutal justice through kangaroo courts.

ndw January 2 – Chhattisgarh: Three youths from Pune, were

allegedly abducted by Maoists in Bijapur district.nd

w January 2 – Odisha: The Maoist cadres set ablaze machinery used in road construction work at Sirigidi in Nuapada district.

thw January 5 – Andhra Pradesh: A Girijan (tribal) was

beaten to death by group of Maoists in Visakhapatnam district.

thw January 6 – Andhra Pradesh: The Araku Valley Police

arrested an employee of a construction company, for trying to supply 10 walkie-talkie sets and about one kilogram of gold to Maoists, near Araku junction in Visakhapatnam district.

thw January 8 – Odisha: Maoists called a two-day bandh, in

Nuapada, Kalahandi and Malkangiri districts to protest against 'Operation Green Hunt.'

thw January 8 – Odisha: Two BSF personnel were killed and

another sustained injury in Maoist-triggered landmine blast in an area of Koraput district.

thw January 9 – Jharkhand: A suspected Maoist was arrested

from an abandoned airport at Chakulia in Ghatsila sub-division of East Singhbhum district.

thw January 11 – Bihar: Maoists cadres set ablaze road

construction equipment machines, engaged in the construction of a state highway in Gaya district.

thw January 11 – Jharkhand: State Police seized around INR 15 million cash from four Maoists in Chatra district.

thw January 13 – Chhattisgarh: Two school students were injured in a landmine blast suspected to be planted by Maoist cadres

in Bijapur district.th

w January 17 – Maharashtra: A Maoists 'commander' carrying reward of INR 1.2 million on his head, surrendered before the Gadchiroli Police along with his wife and another woman cadre.

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MitKat Recommendations: Organisations operating in Maoist infested areas must carry out active liaison for intelligence inputs and harden their security adequately to safeguard their people, assets and operations. Professional advice should be sought from security consultants with a successful track record of operating in dangerous and challenging territories.

Naxal Tracker - February

2015


thw January 19 – Kerala: Suspected Maoists attacked the house of a bank manager at Sulthan Patheri of Wayanad district.

thw January 24 – Telangana: Six Maoists arrested in Khamman district by joint squads of the district police and CRPF personnel.

thw January 25 – Odisha: Two Maoist leaders killed in an encounter near Debagarh district.

thw January 26 – Odisha: As a mark of protests to Republic Day, Maoists hoisted black flag in Bolangir district, and torched a

vehicle engaged in road construction work in Rayagada district. th

w January 27 – Jharkhand: Five police man have been killed and six others injured in a Maoist attack at Palamu district. th

w January 27 – Kerala: Maoists kidnapped a resort manager in Wayanad district. th

w January 28 – Chhattisgarh: Three Maoists responsible for killing of ministers gunned down in Dantewada.th

w January 30 – Chhattisgarh: Three Maoists, including two women cadres, were killed in two different encounters in Bastar region.

Naxal trendsRecent attacks and inputs available with security agencies suggests a resurgence in Maoist activities in border regions of Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. This coincides with the expansion of Maoist presence and increased activity at the junction of state borders of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Earlier in the month, a suspected Maoist attack was reported on the house of a bank manager at Sulthan Patheri in Wayanad district of Kerala. The Wayanad district lies in the tri-state border area of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In addition, several arrests and attacks on security patrols suggest increased rebel activity in the border areas that Odisha shares with Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Various state police forces and para-military forces have attempted to increase vigilance along the state borders, and give a collaborated response to Maoist threats in the region. A sustained security campaign against the rebels had earlier sanitised the border districts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and the rebels appear to be focused on reclaiming territories here.

Maoists are highly active along state borders, where they assume an uncoordinated response from security forces in these areas. The past year saw Maoists attempting to re-establish bases and expand to other areas, while the offensive by government forces in the states which are traditional Maoist hotbeds, especially Chhattisgarh, continued. The expansion to newer areas is understood to be aimed at creating an alternate base of operations for the group, away from the intense security operations in the current core operational areas of the Maoists.

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