INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat Advisory · Mujahideen (IM) chief Riyaz Bhatkal, who is still...

w Spotlight - Nepal: Madhesi agitation intensifies as the protesters reject the government's proposed amendments to the Constitution

w Sri Lanka: Concern over Islamic State tapping into the vulnerable Muslim community who face discrimination by the extremist Buddhist groups

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

JANUARY 2016

Car Free Day in Delhi on January 2 2 n d c o u l d c a u s e t r a f f i c disruptions and delays for commuters

Trial period of odd-even traffic decongestion formula in Delhi – implementation issues may lead to confusion and traffic stress

Nationwide: Increased security for Republic Day celebrations in major cities due to fear of terrorist attacks; heightened security in Delhi as the French President is visiting for R-day

w Arrest of three Al Qaeda operatives in India and reports of Indians joining Islamic State and its recruiters active in the country raises security concerns

The Month That Was

Forecast For January

w Pakistan: Even though the overall security situation improved in 2015; attacks by sectarian groups continued

India’s Neighbourhood

Naxal Trends: The PLGA week and protest week call in Vishakapatnam agency fail to generate the desired support for the Maoists

Expert Speak: Chennai floods November-December 2015: A Case Study for Crisis Response and Business Continuity

w Pollution levels in Delhi reach dangerous levels in the winter, increasing health concerns for city residents

w Record-breaking rains in Chennai leaves the city at a standstill and exposes the infrastructure failure in the city

w Afghanistan: Taliban controls or contests nearly all of southern Afghan province

w Bangladesh: Attacks on Hindus, Ahmadis and Sunni mosques leads to concerns about the security situation in the country

w Maldives: European Parliament calls for sanctions against Maldives for human rights violations

January 2016

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Event Calendar

w Uttar Pradesh: Chances of communal tensions in the region rises as right-wing groups brought in consignment of construction material for the controversial Ram Temple in Ayodhya

w Myanmar: Before forming the government in January 2016, Aung San Suu Kyi and her party work on quietly shaping the transition; likely to avoid abrupt changes to maintain continuity

Winter fog in North India could result in changes in flights and trains schedules; increased risk of road accidents

w January 14th: Lohri, Pongal and Makar

Sankranti

thw January 16 : Guru Gobind Singh's birth

anniversary

rdw January 23 : Birth anniversary of Netaji

Subhash Chandra Bose

thw January 26 : Republic Day

thw January 31 : Death anniversary of

Mahatma Gandhi

thw January - 15 : st1 Trial period of the odd-

even car traffic formula in Delhi

ndw January 22 : Car free day in entire Delhi

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The Month That Was

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According to the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), there has been a seven-fold increase in Delhi's air pollution level since October. The city's ambient air quality (outdoor air quality over a 24-hour period as opposed to real time) continues to be very poor, a situation that is extremely harmful for vulnerable groups such as elderly and children. Real-time exposure readings of nearly all monitoring stations put PM 2.5 and PM 10 figures above the 'severe' threshold. The Air Quality Index in Delhi remained well above 300 (very poor level) since start of December, prompting the government to take drastic measures including a proposal to shut down three thermal power plants. The city recorded its most polluted day of the year with air quality across the city worsening to “severe” levels on December 23rd, 2015. According to System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR), on this day, the city recorded highest levels of particulate matter with an average of 295 and 470 micrograms per cubic metre for PM 2.5 and PM 10 respectively. As per the World Health Organisation (WHO) standard, the safe limit for PM 2.5 and PM 10 is 60 and 100 micrograms per cubic metre, respectively.

To control vehicular pollution, the Supreme Court banned the registration of diesel vehicles (SUVs and cars) above 2000cc engine capacity for three months till March 31st, 2016. The court also ordered small diesel cars to pay a one-time pollution tax starting January 2016. In addition, the green cess being levied on commercial vehicles entering Delhi has been doubled and only CNG-powered taxis will be allowed to run in the city starting March 1st, 2016. In addition to these measures the Delhi government has announced restrictions on cars running the Delhi streets, to be in place from January 1st, 2016. It remains to be seen as to whether these restrictions will improve the air quality in the city.

Pollution levels in Delhi reach dangerous levels in the winter, increasing health concerns for city residents

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The communal situation in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, in December, has the potential of turning communally tense in the future, given that large stocks of stones have been transported to the disputed construction site of the Ram temple. The Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh ordered increase in security deployment in the city, as a precautionary measure. According to Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), the Hindu group involved in this process of rebuilding the temple, the supply of stones would increase in the coming months and construction for the temple would commence soon. The city administration, however, stated that as the matter is still sub judice, no construction activities will be allowed on the land. Muslim leaders in the region have called for peace and harmony, and urged the community to not give in to the alleged provocation by VHP.

The Babri Masjid was a mosque in Ayodhya, in Faizabad district of Uttar Pradesh that was attacked and demolished during a politically motivated violent incident led by militant Hindu nationalist groups, on December 6th, 1992. Following the demolition of the mosque, communal riots broke out across India in which more than 2,000 people were killed. The debate still rages on about the history on the land on which the mosque was built. The site has been traditionally regarded by Hindus to be the birthplace of the Hindu deity Rama; and that there existed a temple at the location which was modified or destroyed to build the mosque. A verdict by the Allahabad High Court divided the land into three, among the stakeholders. An appeal is currently under review in the Supreme Court, over the future of the site. This has been challenged in the Supreme Court by the Hindu Mahasabha and the Sunni Waqf Board. The Supreme Court has stayed the Allahabad High Court judgment and is considering the matter.

Uttar Pradesh: Chances of communal tensions in the region rise as Hindu religious groups bring in

consignment of construction material for the controversial Ram Temple in Ayodhya

The Month That Was


Record-breaking rains in Chennai leaves the city at a standstill and exposes the infrastructure failure

in the city

The northeast monsoon in Chennai this year, the worst in over a hundred years, wreaked unprecedented havoc in the city and its surrounding areas. Chennai's airport, railway stations and bus stations had to be closed down for a few days during the rains. The city's two main rivers, Adyar and Cooum, were flooded and reservoirs and tanks on the outskirts were overflowing well above the usual danger levels. Many parts of the city were inundated and large parts of the city were without electricity for many days. In terms of rescue and relief operations Indian Army, Navy and Air Force worked with local authorities in rescue and relief operations. The disaster management organisations, NDRF and NDMA, pooled in all their resources to help those stranded. The Chennai rains were the biggest operation undertaken by the NDRF till date.

Besides government authorities, NGOs and local residents of the city came out in large numbers, providing shelter, basic necessities as well as offering manpower in rescue operations. A crowd-funded website worked as a resource centre in assisting those in need of help, providing with real-time information on rescue shelters, emergency numbers, available doctors and any other relevant information that was needed for those affected by the rains. Telecom companies came to the rescue, waiving rates and offering free services to their customers. Several IT Parks, located in areas like Taramani, operated as shelters to those rendered homeless.

SMEs, automobile, IT, ITeS, textile, tourism, engineering and other sectors were all affected by the massive rainfall. Chennai is one of the largest auto manufacturing hubs and second largest base for IT companies in the country, after Bengaluru. IT firms had to invoke Business Continuity Plans, so that the company's other centres across the country could continue with the projects handled from Chennai. Indian IT and tech companies had to work overtime to ensure that their clients face minimal business disruptions, including by moving personnel and critical workloads to other sites. The heavy rain exposed the fragile public infrastructure in Chennai. There is need for increased focus on various aspects of proper urban planning, including building and maintaining water, drainage and sewage systems, and mass transport facilities.

www.chennairains.org

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The Month That Was


Arrests of suspected operatives reveals activities of al-Qaeda in Indian SubcontinentThree suspected operatives of the al-Qaeda were detained by police earlier in the month. The terrorists were apprehended from Delhi, Cuttack (Odisha) and Sambhal (Uttar Pradesh). All three operatives are believed to be one-time residents of Sambhal district in Uttar Pradesh. Sambhal is located about 150 km from the national capital. The suspects are believed to be part of a sleeper cell of al-Qaeda's Indian Subcontinent branch. According to the police, two of the operatives were planning for attack during the Christmas and New Year holidays. Of particular significance is the fact that, this is the first time that al-Qaeda operatives have been arrested on Indian soil. The suspects believed to have links with Indian Mujahideen (IM) chief Riyaz Bhatkal, who is still at large; and other senior IM commanders like Baba Sajid, who is believed to be recently reported to have been killed at Syria. One of those arrested, Mohammed Asif, is believed to be one of the founding members and the Indian head (amir) of al-Qaeda in the Indian sub-continent's (AQIS) motivation, recruitment and training wing.

Many Indian nationals are believed to be currently undergoing training in militant camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Earlier this year, the United States announced it had destroyed what it said was the largest al-Qaeda camp detected in Afghanistan, where upwards of 150 AQIS personnel were thought to have been training. Pamphlets and videos recovered from the site threw up evidence that many of the recruits spoke Urdu and Bengali, and were believed to be Indians. The arrests show that the AQIS is not operating merely in name but is an active, growing organisation in the Indian subcontinent. No significant presence of AQIS had been detected in India until now. However, the group has been active in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

In Maharashtra, multiple cases being reported of youths being radicalised and attempting to join Islamic StateIn Maharashtra, On December 26th, three students from Hyderabad were detained by the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) at Nagpur's International Airport on suspicion of planning to travel to the Syrian battlegrounds, through Afghanistan, to join the Islamic State (IS). This plan was uncovered by the police through these individuals' social media accounts. Earlier in the month, one person was arrested by the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) of Pune police, as part of their investigation in the case of three missing youths of Malvani area in the western suburbs of Mumbai. The three youths are suspected to have been radicalised to join the Islamic State (IS) (according to statements of family members) and the arrested person is suspected to be one of them. In the case of the youths from Malvani area of Mumbai, the police are trying to ascertain whether the missing men were brain-washed into joining the IS by someone personally or through the Internet.

In Jaipur, a recruiter for the Islamic State (IS) was identified was arrested in December. The recruiter was an employee with an oil marketing company and as using his position to influence workers and supply technical inputs to the terror group.

Arrest of three Al Qaeda operatives in India, and reports of Indians joining Islamic State and its recruiters

active in the country raises security concerns

Home

Forecast for January


The Delhi government has announced restrictions on movement of vehicles in Delhi from January 1st, 2016, to control pollution in the city. The current phase of restrictions will be on till January 15th, 2016. According to the new rule, cars with even number plates will run on even number dates (2nd, 4th, 6th, etc.) while odd number cars will run on

The rule will apply from 08:00 am – 08:00 pm. Only emergency vehicles such as fire tenders, PCR vans and ambulances will be allowed to ply on all days. The Transport Ministry announced that to ease the commuter traffic, 3,000 new buses will be introduced and frequency of metro trains increased, starting January.

The Delhi traffic police will set up 200 check points across the city to ensure that the rule is being followed. The rule is estimated to bring approximately half the vehicles in Delhi off roads, which currently has 19 lakh vehicles registered. The Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) would also deploy additional 500 personnel at metro stations across the city to ease additional passengers during this period.

With the additional check points in place across the city, the traffic flow might be slow. The new rule has received mixed reactions from the residents of Delhi with majority of them still confused about the rule. There are also exemptions to these rules, such as single women drivers, emergency vehicles, VIPs etc. The complete list is given below:w All CNG-driven vehicles; electric vehicles; hybrid vehicles; and two-wheelersw Vehicles driven by women, with only women passengersw Vehicles driven by women, with children below the age of 12w Those on the way to hospital for medical emergency (should carry proof)w Vehicles of physically challengedw Emergency vehicles - Ambulance, fire, hospital, prison, hearse, law enforcement, etc.w Senior government officials including President and Prime Minister, and Supreme Court judges

To deal with the possible difficulties their employees might face during this period, companies have worked out some alternatives to ensure business continuity. Some of these measures are: w Creating internal databases to help employees form their own carpool groups (MakeMyTrip, Paytm, Woodland, Panasonic, Maruti

Suzuki, and E&Y)w Encouraging employees to avail of the company's cab services, which will cater to the odd-even daysw Encouraging employees to sign up third-party carpooling apps like BlaBla cars, sRide, Orahi (TechMahindra, Aditya Birla, Capgemini,

Deloitte, Cognizant, iGate, MakeMyTrip, and IBM) w Providing free metro passes, and drops to metro stationsw Letting employees work more from home (KPMG, and Panasonic)

odd number dates (1st, 3rd, 5th, etc.).

Trial period of odd-even traffic decongestion formula in Delhi – implementation issues may lead to

confusion and traffic stress

Home



Car Free Day in Delhi on January 22nd could cause traffic disruptions and delays for commuters

To create awareness about and deal with the alarming levels of Delhi's pollution, Delhi Government announced that Car-Free Day will be organized across the national capital on January 22nd, 2016. The earlier three versions of the car-free day were organized only in specific areas of Delhi, and on a certain stretch of road. The entire logistics of a car-free day have not yet been clarified by the government. This measure comes as part of a broader effort to bring down the city’s pollution level.

A sprawling capital city which is home to 25 million people, is frequently enveloped in a dense fog that severely reduces visibility and has been linked to chronic respiratory disease. Last year the city added 1,400 cars to its roads every day, while public transport and infrastructure struggled to keep pace with the city's growth. A World Health Organisation report found that Delhi's air quality was three times worse than Beijing, with 13 Indian cities among the 20 most polluted in the world. The Delhi government has stepped up efforts needed to institutionalise measures, including imposing a congestion charge and car-pooling, to dissuade owners of private cars from taking their vehicle out, in addition to adding more buses to the Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC).

Nationwide: Increased security for Republic Day celebrations in major cities due to fear of terrorist attacks;

heightened security in Delhi as the French President is visiting for R-day

India celebrates its 66th Republic Day on January 26th, to commemorate the day that the Constitution of India came into existence in 1950. Security forces, across the country, as in previous years, will be on high alert for terrorist attacks. Traditionally, the day is treated as a high-risk one for terrorist and militant threats; especially in view of the fact that high-ranking members of the central and state governments participate in public events, held in open-air locations which are possibly easier locations for anti-national elements to target. While there have been no large-scale attacks reported on this day, in the past; security forces will remain on high alert, especially after the recent series of terror attacks across the globe. In Delhi, there will be additionally security put in place for the visit of French President Francois Hollande who is the chief guest at the Republic Day Parade at India Gate.

In Delhi, traffic diversions will be put in place on January 26th and January 23rd (rehearsal day for Republic Day). The Delhi Traffic Police issues traffic advisories closer to the dates on the diversion routes for smooth traffic flow.

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According to weather forecasts, Delhi will witness a subdued winter fog in January. The Indian Meteorological Department predicts some built-up of fog in the first week of January, although as weather conditions presently are forecast, it will not cause major disruptions to transport operations. In previous years, dense fog in the National Capital Region (NCR) has resulted in delays and cancellations of flights and trains, and accidents on roads. However, for this winter, equipment has been upgraded at the Delhi airport to improve landing and taking off capability in low visibility conditions.

The month of January may witness infrequent days of dense fog. Basic safety measures must be adhered to, to prevent mishaps during this period. Passengers are thus advised to check the status of their bookings as trains and flights, particularly those between 5 am and 10 am, are likely to be delayed. It is recommended to drive with extreme caution and at low speed during heavy fog. Use your low-beam headlights. Always keep your tail-lights and blinkers on, so that other drivers can spot your car and maintain a safe distance. If your car has fog lights, use them.

Winter fog in North India could result in changes in flights and trains schedules; increased risk of road

accidents

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Afghanistan

Taliban controls or contests nearly all of southern Afghan provinceThe Afghan Taliban overran the strategic district of Sangin in Helmand province, the same day (December 20th) the deputy governor of the province warned the country's President that the southern Afghan province was in danger of collapsing to the Taliban. The Taliban action came despite the involvement of US and British special operations forces as well as US air support in the province. Following the Taliban offensive, the police personnel refused to return the streets of the district, claiming lack of support from government to handle the security situation in the province. Meanwhile, as Taliban lost control of another district in Helmand province, Khanashin, to the Afghan security forces, the group gained control of Marawara district in the northeastern province of Kunar. Taliban's reach and control is believed to be spread to most areas of the southern provinces of Afghanistan including Helmand and Kandahar, and also in many northeastern provinces of the country, which border Pakistan.

Sangin is a major poppy-growing district in Helmand (the heartland of the Taliban) that produces most of the world's opium production. The Taliban depends highly on the cash crop to fund its insurgency. In the past three months, the fighting in four districts of Helmand had killed about 700 policemen and wounded 500 more. 2015 witnessed a jump of nearly 28 per cent as compared to the previous year in terms of fatalities of security personnel. The Taliban now controls 40 districts in Afghanistan and contests another 39, according to a report.

Pakistan

Even though the overall security situation improved in 2015; attacks by sectarian groups continue

Sectarian group claims bomb attack on a Shia-majority area in Kurram One of the prominent sectarian outfits in Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi's international arm (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al-Aalmi) claimed a bombing in a Shia-dominated area of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The blast took place at clothes' market in Parachinar city of Kurram, on December 12th and 24 people were killed while dozens were injured. The attack was claimed to be a response to perceived crimes against Syrian Muslims (Sunnis) by Iran and Bashar al-Assad (both Shias). Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, the anti-Shia militant group, has suffered a series of setbacks this year, at the hands of the security forces. The bombing took place a day after five militants of the group were killed in a police “encounter” in Punjab province. The group's leader and his two sons were shot dead in a similar police encounter this July. Last month, another top LeJ commander was shot by police in a similar manner. The Parachinar attack is a proof that despite the setbacks, the group is capable of mounting devastating attacks.

Security operations against militant groups witnessed success in 2015The massive offensive operations undertaken by the Pakistan military against various terrorist groups operating from the country continue. As per official data, the country saw a 34.22 per cent reduction in the incidents of terrorism and fatalities in 2015 as compared to 2014. The implementation of Operation Zarb-e-Azb and National Action Plan are believed to be the major reduction in terror-related violence in the country. Security operations to sanitise the restive province of Balochistan are also seeing some form of success. According to the government, more than 9,000 suspected militants and criminals have been apprehended by various security agencies in Balochistan as a part of the National Action Plan (NAP) in the year 2015. A total of 1,973 intelligence based operations were conducted in Balochistan against elements involved in targeted killings, bomb explosions and kidnappings. Law and order situation in the province is said to have improved by 70 per cent in the last two years.



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Before forming the government in January 2016, Aung San Suu Kyi and her party work on quietly shaping the transition; likely to avoid abrupt changes to maintain continuity Myanmar’s democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi held talks with President Thein Sein and other members of the current government, in December, to discuss a smooth and peaceful transfer of power to the country's first democratically-elected government after nearly five decades of military-rule. The new government is set to take office in January 2016. Myanmar started moving from a half-century of dictatorship toward democracy in 2011, when military rulers agreed to hand over power to a nominally civilian government headed by President Thein Sein, a general turned reformist.

When it forms Myanmar's government next month, the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi plans to largely continue the economic policies of the outgoing military-backed administration and will not attempt to shutter businesses linked to the former ruling generals. Despite sharing decades of common struggle against the military junta that ruled Myanmar until 2011, the relationship between the NLD and many ethnic leaders has always been marked by mistrust. Under the military-drafted constitution, the army chief will appoint three key ministers for defence, border affairs and the interior; with control of security forces as well as 25 per cent of MPs.

Concern over Islamic State tapping into the vulnerable Muslim community who face discrimination by the extremist Buddhist groups Concerns have emerged in Sri Lanka of radicalised Muslim groups becoming supporters of the Islamic State (IS). A government report lists 45 Sri Lankans who entered Syria since the "call to arms" to all Muslims, by IS was issued in 2014 to join the terrorist group. Some of these Sri Lankan nationals have travelled through the usual route of Turkey, while some have taken the Pakistan route. These fighters were said to engaged in both combat and logistical tasks. Previously, alerts have also been sounded about possible recruiters for IS being active in the country. The Indian police had identified a Sri Lankan national as a possible IS recruiting agent in Sri Lanka, in the case of recruitment of a 16-year old girl from Pune (city in western India) for IS. In recent months, there has been growing evidence of actual and attempted outreach by the IS into Sri Lanka. In July this year, a Sri Lankan national managed to travel to Syria, via Turkey to join IS. He was later killed while fighting for Islamic State in Raqqa, Syria. Social media groups have also emerged which are urging Muslims in Sri Lanka to join the jihadist cause. There is also an increase in communal tensions due to statements and activities of extremist Buddhist groups in the country. The Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) a Buddhist group, accused the Muslim community in the country of harbouring extremists and planning a major military attack on Sri Lanka with the support of international terrorists. There are concerns that the BBS is attempting to restart the hate campaign against non-Buddhists it carried out during the previous government. Since 2012, there have been over 540 incidents of violence, intimidation and hate carried out by extremist groups like the BBS against Muslims and over 511 incidents against the evangelical Christian community in the country. The Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) and Sinhala Ravaya (SR) are viewed as the main ethno-religious forces that have displayed intolerance towards the Muslims and Christians in Sri Lanka. In the majority Buddhist nation, anti-Buddhist sentiments have been high among the Muslim population of the country, due to these activities. Such anti-Buddhist sentiments and marginalisation of the minority population provides for a fertile ground of recruitment and radicalisation for terrorist groups.

Sri Lanka



Myanmar

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Maldives

European Parliament calls for sanctions against Maldives for human rights violationsThe European Parliament has called upon the European Union (EU) and its member states to launch targeted sanctions against certain members of the Maldives government and their leading supporters in the business community of the country. The Parliament wants the EU to freeze the overseas assets of these persons, apart from imposing travel bans on them. This course of action has been recommended in the face of continuing lack of democratic system and human rights violations in the Maldives. The European Parliament adopted a resolution with 563 votes in favour. The House also wanted from the Maldivian government an immediate and unconditional release former President Mohamed Nasheed held under terrorism-related charge, former Vice-President Ahmed Adeeb held under sedition and attempted murder charges, and other political prisoners.

The Maldives, known for luxury island resorts and beaches, has had a difficult transition to democracy since holding its first multiparty election in 2008, which ended 30 years of autocratic rule. The Maldives' judiciary, police and bureaucracy are deemed highly politicized and are accused of being used to crack down on the opposition. Last month, the government had imposed a state of emergency on November 4th, which was subsequently revoked in less than a week, following widespread international condemnation and concerns about its impact on the country's crucial tourism industry. However, even after lifting of the emergency, President Yameen has continued with his dictatorial political moves.



Bangladesh

Attacks on Hindus, Ahmadis and Sunni mosques leads to concerns about the security situation in the countrySecurity tensions are high in Bangladesh for the past couple of months after a series of recent attacks, blamed on militants, including the murders of two foreign nationals (Italian and Japanese) and the hacking to death of four atheist bloggers and a publisher; along with attacks on minorities in the country. Of particular significance, is the attack on a Sunni mosque in the country; for the first time in Sunni-majority Bangladesh.

Earlier in the month, nine people were injured in a bomb and gun attack on December 10th at a Hindu temple in Dinajpur, some 415 km north of capital Dhaka. About one hundred people were gathered in the temple, at the time of the attack. The attack was similar in nature to a bomb attack on December 5th at a Hindu religious gathering in Dinajpur, in which at least six people were injured. No one has claimed responsibility for this attack, but police suspected that the banned militant group Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) may be behind the attacks.

Later in the month, on Christmas day, Islamic State claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on a mosque of the minority Ahmadi community in Bagmara town of Rajshahi district, stating it to be an attack on a “polytheist Qadiani sect”. The Ahmadi community is a minority Muslim community with about 100,000 followers in Bangladesh – which is 90 per cent Sunni Muslim. The previous attack on the community was a bomb attack in 1999, in southwestern Khulna district, where seven people were killed. In a new trend in Bangladesh, two Sunni mosques on a naval base in Chittagong came under attack. As per the police, three hand grenades were exploded while 11 unexploded grenades were recovered from the scene, and two people were detained for interrogation. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. The incident was the first such attack on Sunni mosques. There have been growing concerns about the spread of Islamic State in Bangladesh. The group has consistently claimed responsibility for attacks on minorities and foreigners in the country; raising serious concerns about the security situation there.

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Spotlight - Nepal


The Madhesi agitations showed no signs of ending in December even after four months of agitation. This is despite the Nepalese government putting forth a three-step roadmap to end the current political crisis. The Madhesi Morcha rejected the government proposal sighting the roadmap as abstract, unclear and incomplete. Morcha leaders are determined to not call off their agitation unless the dispute over the federal boundaries, as proposed in the current Constitution, is resolved.

The Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM), an alliance of four Madhes-based parties which has been agitating against Nepal's new constitution over the past four months, announced (December 25th) its readiness to support the Constitution Amendment Bill if the major parties were ready to accept to revise it, to address their concerns over constituency delineation and proportional and inclusive representation. It has also called for defining proportional and inclusive representation to make clear “who all would benefit from the provision and how”. The SLMM demands are: w Population should be the sole criteria for fixing electoral constituencies w Representation in the national assembly based on population ratio w Defining proportional and inclusive representation w Retaining Interim Constitution provision on citizenship

Fresh violence occurred in the latter half of December in the Terai region as the SLMM announced more intense round of protests due to “lack of seriousness shown by the government” to address their concerns. The group had announced organised sit-ins, general strikes, peaceful demonstrations and civil obedience, in the Terai region. The town of Janakpur remained tense for most of December due to frequent clashes between security personnel and cadres of Madhesi Morcha in the district. It was also in Janakpur that the President of Nepal's motorcade came under attack by Madhesi cadres, in December. All the major Nepal-India entry points have been tense for the past three months, after the promulgation of the new Constitution triggered protests in areas close to the Indian border.

Madhesi agitation intensifies as the protesters reject the government's proposed amendments

to the Constitution

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Chennai and parts of Tamil Nadu received heavy rainfall in months of November and December. The state witnessed close to 280 deaths in rain related incidents across the state, with the majority of them from Cuddalore district south of Chennai. The region received approximately 400mm of rainfall between November 28th and December 4th, the maximum in the last 100 years. Enterprises operating in Chennai were impacted severely as heavy rainfall resulted in flooding across the city and in their facilities. Operations were disrupted, as several employees were unable to report to work. Supply chains suffered as a result of flooding.

Damage and disruptionw Incessant rainfall led to flooding in the streets across the city. Waterlogging was reported from all parts of the city.w Power was shut down across the city for three days to prevent any incidents of electrocution.w Telephone, mobile communication and internet services were disrupted for almost a week.w Water levels in Adyar and Cooum rivers reached dangerous levels as water was released from lakes such as Chembarambakkam,

Puzhal and Poondi. This resulted in flooding in the areas near riverbanks.w Chennai Airport was shutdown till December 6th, and most trains also cancelled from Chennai Egmore and Central terminals.

Causes atributed to the floodsw Unplanned and unregulated infrastructure, disconnect between hydrology and urban planning in the city.w Water bodies have been encroached upon, ponds and lakebeds have been converted to residential townships. Out of 150 water

bodies, Chennai is left with only 27.w The storm water drainage is planned a sstand-alone system rather than a network. Only 855 km of stormwater drains against 2,847

km of urban roads in the city.

Relief and Rescue Effortsw The Indian Army, Navy, Air Force, National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), Tamil Nadu Fire and Rescue Services, and Tamil Nadu

police were deployed for rescue effort in addition to the Indian Coast Guard and Coastal Security Group.w Over 11,53,059 people were evacuated and 3,50,000 rescued from flood hit areas in and around Chennai.w Over 5,900 relief centres were in operation in Chennai and neighbouring districts.w Indian Navy Ships (INS) Airavat, Shakti and Sahyadri brought relief material to Chennai.w Medical camps were setup in affected areas to attend to any health issues.

Impact on Organisationsw Over 165 BSE-listed organisations operate in Chennai with an aggregate market capitalisation of over Rs 285,000 crore.w The automobile industry suffered an estimated loss of over Rs 15,000 crores over the period due to employee shortage and flooding

inside the facilities. w IT, BPO and ITES industry operations were also impacted due to Internet service, shortage of staff and power disrpution in the city.

Chennai floods November 2015: A Case Study for Crisis Response and Business Continuity

Expert Speak


-Suseendran Pandian

Home

Preparedness and Crisis Responsew Some organisations had to invoke their Business Continuity Plan (BCP) due to flooding in their facility. Employees were instructed to

work from home to avoid any travel risks.w Most had to undertake crisis response measures to ensure clients face minimal business disruptions, including by moving personnel

and critical workloads to other sites.w Enterprises that were prepared with their BCP, shifted operational load to other cities.w Some IT firms moved critical applications to the cloud so that they were accessible seamlessly over the internet across any part of the

globe.w Some companies that were well prepared for the long haul invoked 'invacuation.' Employees were encouraged to stay back in the

offices – this was to ensure their safety as well as to attend to critical projects; and necessary arrangements of food, water, and other necessities were made for them.

w At some places, employees took refuge in the office as there was no food or power at their homes. w The response by crisis management teams varied greatly from company to company, depending on their level of preparedness.

Lessons Learntw The disaster highlighted the need for a robust BCP for companies.w Organistaions need to identify critical operations that would have an immediate impact on business; and thus create a backup site

(for critical processes) to avoid any disruptions to operations.w A dedicated crisis management team has to be created, with periodic crisis simulations to ensure better preparedness when facing an

actual situation.

What to watch out forWhile the heavy rains are almost over, and the flood situation has improved in Chennai, organisations are likely to be impacted by the following in the immediate future:w The public transport services will take some while to resume normal operations, and this will affect employee attendance.w Repairs and maintenance to electricity supply infrastructure may lead to frequent and unplanned power cuts.w People who may have lost/damaged their passports and other essential personal documents may take time to get them reissued;

and such may not be able to undertake foreign travel immediately.w Employees may request extended leave to attend to their domestic responsibilities, especially those whose families or homes have

been more affected.w Accumulation of garbage and and waste may lead to health and hygeine problems in office and residential areas.w Contact with unclean water may lead to various water-borne and vector-borne diseases. Water Borne: Cholera, Typhoid, Hepatitis A, Diarrhoea Vector-borne: Malaria, dengue, haemorrhagic fever Due to exposure to water/rain: Hypothermia, Respiratory tract infections, Leptospirosis

Expert Speak


Suseendran Pandian , MitKat Advisory Services : Suseendran is an Analyst with MitKat's Risk Monitoring & Advisory Services. Based out of Mumbai, he holds a Masters' degree in Homeland Security from Gujarat Forensic Science University, Gujarat.

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Naxal Tracker - January

2015


December events and incidents

Naxals or Maoists are militant far-left radical Communist groups operating in India. Inspired by the doctrines of Mao Zedong, they work to overthrow the government and upper classes by violence. They are considered as a terrorist organization under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of India (1967).

Naxalites activities have spread to about 82 districts across 10 states, though some are very moderately affected. Maoist incidents have accounted for almost 60 per cent of terrorism-related violence in India over the last decade. These include intimidation, killings of innocent civilians, reprisal killings, abductions and kidnappings, IED blasts and the destruction of government and private property. In many of the areas of their influence, the Maoists have been collecting taxes and dispensing instant and brutal justice through kangaroo courts.

w December 2nd – Maoist rebels observe People's Liberation Guerrilla Army week from December 2nd to 9th.

w December 3rd – Chhattisgarh: Two police personnel injured in landmine blast during PLGA week in Kanker district.

w December 3rd – Jharkhand: Rebels set bus ablaze after asking passengers to disembark, in Palamau district.

w December 9th – Jharkhand: One site manager of a construction firm killed by rebels in East Singhbum district.

w December 10th – Chhattisgarh: One security personnel injured when armed Maoists attacked a security patrol in Narayanpur district.

w December 10th – Chhattisgarh: Five security personnel injured in Maoist ambush in Sukma district.

w December 10th – Chhattisgarh: One police personnel injured in pressure bomb explosion in Bijapur district.

w December 13th – Chhattisgarh: Prior to local body elections, one Maoist rebel identified and killed while setting an IED in Lohardaga district.

w December 13th – Odisha: Maoist camp destroyed by security personnel following encounter with the rebels in Angul district.

w December 13th – Jharkhand: Stone-crusher plant owner abducted by rebels in Seraikela-Kharsawan district. w December 16th – Chhattisgarh: Two youths killed by Maoist rebels in Rajnandgaon district on the pretext of being police

informers. w December 18th – Kerala: Forest outposts attacked, and three forest officials kidnapped by Maoists in Malapuram district. w December 19th – Odisha: Cell phone tower damaged by Maoists at Kalia Atali village under Baipariguda area of Koraput

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MitKat Recommendations: Organisations operating in Maoist infested areas must carry out active liaison for intelligence inputs and harden their security adequately to safeguard their people, assets and operations. Professional advice should be sought from security consultants with a successful track record of operating in dangerous and challenging territories.

Naxal Tracker - January

2015


district.w December 20th – Odisha: Cell phone tower set on fire by rebels at Chipakur village under Boipariguda block in Koraput

district.w December 24th – Chhattisgarh: One Maoist rebel killed in encounter with security personnel in Bastar district. w December 25th – Odisha: A former head of village abducted killed by rebels in Malkangiri district.

Naxal Trends: The PLGA week and protest week call in Vishakapatnam agency fail to generate the desired support for the Maoists The rural areas of Visakhapatnam district in Andhra Pradesh have become a hotspot for Maoist activities in recent months. In November, the rebels called for a bandh in the agency areas of the district that was implemented widely with transportation disrupted. Maoist rebels also pulled off an abduction of six leaders of Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) - a political party - from Bhadrachalam division in Khammam district in Telangana. The leaders were later released without any harm. Last month, three local leaders of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) were allegedly held captive by Maoists in Visakhapatnam. They were released after a few days.

All these activities were directed at making their displeasure felt at the government awarding contracts to commence bauxite mining activities in the region; which the local tribals oppose. The Maoist rebels claim to be championing the cause of the local tribal population, who say that the ecological balance in the region would get affected if mining begins. Bauxite mining deposits in the state have been identified to be around 700 million tons, out of which 570 million tons are in Visakhapatnam and East Godavari districts, in 25 pockets covering an area of about 4,775 hectares.

In spite of their attempts, Maoist influence appears to be waning in the region. People's Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) Week observed by the Maoists in the first week of December (2nd – 8th) and a protest week called by the Maoists from December 21st – 27th which included a bandh on 26th, failed to generate response from the locals. Life proceeded as normal in the district as state transport buses and private vehicles plied on the roads without hindrance, and businesses remained open.

By providing support to the anti-bauxite mining stand of the local population, Maoists want to renew its support among locals in the region, which has waned considerably in the past few years. This lack of support can be seen from the lack of response generated during December. Late last month, there were reports of around 250 Maoists cadres moving into this area from Chhattisgarh so as to replenish the low cadre strength in the region.

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