Perspective INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST...India Monthly Risk Forecast - January 2017 Cyclone Vardah...

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stw 1 Jan: Arvind Kejriwal's rally in Rohtak Union Government to revoke Jallikattu ban bicentennial celebrations of Presidency University in

st th Kolkataw 1 Jan: Communist Party of India-Marxist plans protests w 5 Jan: Guru Govind Singh Jayantirdthacross West Bengal against demonetization between w 23 Jan: Birth Anniversary of Netaji Subhash Chandra w 6 Jan: Congress to hold countrywide agitation against

st thJanuary 1 - 10 Bosedemonetisationst thth thw 1 Jan: Trinamool Congress to start a week-long, w 26 Jan: Republic Dayw 6 or 7 Jan: Haryana Congress to gherao the district

thstatewide agitation against the Modi government from headquarters in Haryana w 29 Jan: All India Jat Akarshan Sangharshi Samiti to stJanuary 1 th relaunch the next round of Jat agitation in Haryana w 13 Jan: Lohri

nd thw 2 Jan: Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address BJP th w 30 Jan: Death Anniversary of Mahatma Gandhiw 14 Jan: Makar Sankranti, Pongal, Bihubooth workers' rally in Lucknow stth w 31 Jan: Formation day of NSCN

rd w 20 Jan: President and former Prime Minister to attend w 3 Jan: DMK to hold protest in Madurai, to urge the

} Spanish Red Cross worker abducted in northern Afghanistan

Afghanistan

THE MONTH THAT WAS

} Cyclone Vardah causes massive destruction on the northern coast of Tamil Nadu

} Crime against women reported in Delhi and Pune

} Violence erupts in Manipur over the government's announcement to form new districts

} Death of Jayalalithaa causes major disruption to business continuity in Chennai

FORECAST FOR JANUARY 2017

} Increased security for Republic Day celebrations in major cities over threat of terrorist attacks; heightened security in Delhi as the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince to be the guest for the event

} All India Jat Arakshan Sangharsh Samiti to renew statewide agitation from January 29th

} Hardik Patel to return after six months of probation; rallies planned in the state post his return

} Election Commission expected to declare election dates in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur; political campaigning to increase

EVENT CALENDAR

NAXAL TRACKER ISLAMIC STATE IN SOUTH ASIA} Security forces on alert in Kerala and Chhattisgarh following reports of Maoist

movement} Maoists continue to attack companies working in the red belt, mostly in the form of

arson of assets

} Myanmar: IS could exploit } Pakistan: IS operative arrested in Rohingyas Punjab

} Afghanistan: IS weakened, says } India: IS suspects arrested UNSC report } Bangladesh: CT unit raids on JMB

} Rohingyas continue to flee the country over fear of persecution

} Government to introduce the Myanmar Companies Law

Myanmar

7

} Ahmadi mosque attacked in Punjab province

} General Qamar Bajwa takes control as Army Chief

Pakistan

January 2017

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

4

} Dock workers protest at Hambantota port

} Radical Buddhist monks protest in Batticaloa and Colombo

Sri Lanka} Zika virus reported In

Male; nationwide screening undertaken

Maldives} Protests over proposed

changes in the constitution expected to continue; Opposition parties to step up offensive

Spotlight: Nepal

9

15 1716

1

} Two separate attacks on Hindu temples, one in Kaliganj and other in Netrokona district

Bangladesh

} State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – December 2016

6

14

2 3 5

12 13118

18 19

22

29

23 24

30 31

25 26

20

27

21

28

10

PerspectiveJANUARY 2017

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST

India Monthly Risk Forecast - January 2017

yclone Vardah struck Pulicat, situated around slower speed of Internet and broadband as one of C55 km north of the state capital Chennai, on undersea cable of the company was hit by the thDecember 12 . The cyclone wreaked havoc in the cyclone.

city and its surrounding areas. Chennai's airport, railway stations and bus stations had to be closed The lessons that Chennai learnt from last year's for a few days during the rains. As a precaution, the devastating floods seem to have helped the city be power supply was shut down in many parts of the prepared to handle the cyclone. For instance, state. Around 18 people died in storm-related immediately after the first warning came in for the accidents in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The cyclone, key departments activated a software authorities evacuated around 8,000 people from prepared after last year's floods; the list contained a low-lying areas in north Chennai, Pazhaverkadu in checklist of emergency measures. The government Given the improvement in preparedness of the Tiruvallur district and villages off Mamallapuram, actively worked on relief work and activating a state and central machinery during Cyclone Vardah in Kanchipuram district to relief shelters. Several series of pre-set emergency measures, which was as compared to Chennai floods, the state was able houses were destroyed, especially in coastal parts not seen last year. During last year's floods, the to bounce back better from destruction of this like Kottivakkam, Palavakkam, Foreshore Estate, government was blamed for lack of transparency year's disaster.and Royapuram. and preparedness. In addition, this year, personnel

from the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) Extensive damages have been reported and state disaster management personnel were particularly in the power sector. Chennai deployed much in advance. Army and Navy experienced power cuts for up to at least a week as personnel were also put on standby. Significantly, there were not enough transmission lines to before the cyclone hit and during the cyclone, the evacuate power from thermal units. Airtel had to police were issuing multiple advisories, instructing warn its customers that they would experience the public on the safety precautions to follow.

Cyclone Vardah causes massive destruction on the northern coast of Tamil Nadu

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1


here have been cases of crime against women engineer in Bengaluru over suspicion of being Treported this month in the cities of Delhi and involved in the murder of a female IT professional in Pune. At least two cases of sexual assault were Pune. They both were part of the same training in reported in Delhi. In one of the incident, a 20-year- Bengaluru. old woman was allegedly sexually assaulted in a car near south Delhi's Moti Bagh. The driver of the Despite the National Crime Records Bureau data for car, owned by an official of the paramilitary CISF, 2015 indicating a reduction in the crime against has been arrested. The victim was waiting for a taxi women, the numbers remain significantly high. when the accused reportedly offered to drop her. With a decrease of 3.1%, 2015 saw the registration The victim has stated that after driving a short of 3,27,394 cases under the head of Crimes against distance, the driver parked at a deserted area and Women as compared to 3,37,922 cases in 2014. adequate guidance or security measures can be assaulted her. In a second case, a teenager was Cases of rape fell by 5.7% — coming down from implemented. Organisations must provide safety reportedly sexually assaulted by two classmates at 36,735 in 2014 to 34,651 in 2015. However, despite awareness and self-defence training for their a birthday party in west Delhi. It is believed that the government implementing stringent revision of employees because other safety measures the perpetrators spiked the victim's drink. women safety laws, the issue of crime against instituted within their premises do not carry beyond Meanwhile, a 23-year-old woman software women remains a serious safety issue. the office eco-space.engineer, working with a reputed IT firm, was stabbed to death by an unidentified assailant Women and men should be provided awareness on outside her office on the outskirts of Pune. The gender-based violence. The incident in Pune has victim left the office and decided not to travel by highlighted that HR should encourage employees to the office cab. Investigators detained an IT report instances of stalking or harassment so that

Crime against women reported in Delhi and Pune


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3India Monthly Risk Forecast - January 2017

nter-community tensions have erupted since bills and carving out of the new districts, has looked Ithe State Government announced the creation to gain the support of Meities, and Kukis. Manipur is of seven new districts. The United Naga Council slated to go for assembly elections in early 2017. (UNC) has opposed the move, accusing Manipur of The move is to weaken the Naga vote in the taking portions which were traditionally ancestral forthcoming assembly election. Naga land. The UNC has imposed an indefinite

steconomic blockade since November 1 . The The Central Government of BJP has looked to focus tensions of a month and a half boiled over in the not only developing the northeastern region of the mid of December, when violence broke out in the country but also make political inroads there. The Meitei-dominated districts of the state. Meitei government has sanctioned large infrastructure mobs surrounding churches and torching buses development projects for the region, appointed a bound for the Naga-dominated Ukhrul district. MoS for Northeast, and signed a peace agreement Curfew was imposed in Imphal and some other with the NSCN (I-M). Now, the government faces a districts, and Internet services were shutdown. major challenge in resolving or at least bringing The central government had to rush around 4,000 under control the current crisis between Nagas and paramilitary forces to support local law Meiteis. enforcement agencies.

Ethnic conflict between the Meiteis (Manipuri) and Nagas is decades old and revolves around tribal clashes over conflicting territory. The Manipur Chief Minister, through passing of certain

Violence erupts in Manipur over the government's announcement to form new districts


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Jayalalithaa, former chief minister of Tamil remained shut for one day. It was reported that thJNadu, died on 5 December due to cardiac emergency services workload was passed to the

arrest. Even before the announcement of her companies located in the cities of Hyderabad and death, there was an air of uncertainty and concern Bengaluru. On an average, around 30% of additional in Chennai and the rest of Tamil Nadu over the operations were carried out by some firms in security implications her death would have. Hyderabad as compared to their regular work.However, despite the grave concerns over possible eruption of violence after her death, the entire It was imperative for several companies in Chennai state including Chennai remained calm. No major to remain functional as per the Service Level incidents of violence were reported, only sporadic Agreements (SLA) with clients. Companies are liable clashes with the police occurred. to reimburse huge penalties if they are unable to

solve client issues within the prescribed period. The However, as a show of solidarity and due to situation was exacerbated with the uncertainty concerns of any possible violent backlash over her over the supply of fuel and availability of transport. new chief minister. Nonetheless, it was evident that death, most educational institutions and private the operations to the business continuity were organisations remained shut for a day after her Widespread unrest, looting and rioting was impacted. The one day shutdown of companies had death. Educational institutions were closed for reported followed the death of former chief put a spotlight on the on the private organizations three days and a seven-day state mourning period minister and AIADMK leader MG Ramachandran in business continuity and response plans. was announced. Taxi services and rental vehicle December 1987. However, that scale of unrest was Furthermore, such plans in place may perhaps providers suspended operations as a preventive not witnessed this time due to the preparedness of become insignificant if not tested, periodically.measure against potential for any unrest. security personnel across the state and the Following her death, offices of major IT companies immediate swearing-in of O Panneerselvam as the

Death of Jayalalithaa causes major disruption to business continuity in Chennai



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State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – December 2016



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State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – December 2016


thndia celebrates its 67 Republic Day on January worrying implication could be arrests of IS thI A26 , to commemorate the day the Indian sympathizers in India, and more importantly

Constitution came into existence in 1950. Security the arrests of over 11 IS sympathizers in Hyderabad forces as in previous years, will be on high alert for with explosives and ammunition. In addition, the terrorist attacks. The day is treated as a high-risk number of IS supporters in UAE has been on the rise one for terrorist and militant threats; especially since 2014. In Abu Dhabi, there have been instances since high-ranking members of the central and where ISIS operators had attempted to plant state governments participate in public events, explosives inside airport facilities and the foiling of held in open-air locations which are possibly easier an attack at a popular Dubai restaurant. The Islamic locations for anti-national elements to target. State has also publicly declared war on UAE for

th rdWhile there have been, no large-scale attacks taking part in the US led coalition in Syria. place on January 26 and January 23 (rehearsal reported on this day, in the past; security forces day). The Delhi Traffic Police issues traffic advisories will remain on high alert, especially after the Last year, security forces had also foiled an attempt closer to the dates on the diversion routes for recent terror attacks across the globe. by LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) and HuM (Harkat-ul- smooth traffic flow.

Mujahideen) to carry out Republic day attacks The Republic Day celebrations in January 2016 within the country and similar attempts may made during which President Hollande was the Chief from across the border. Guest passed without incident; this year the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Zayed Al Nahyan will be the In Delhi, there will be additionally security put in Chief Guest reviewing the Parade. This is a place for the visit of the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, significant step towards Indo – UAE ties as UAE has who is the chief guest at the Republic Day Parade at historically been a close ally of Pakistan. India Gate. In Delhi, traffic diversions will be put in

Increased security for Republic Day celebrations in the capital over threat of terrorist attacks; heightened security in Delhi as the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince to be the guest for the event


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he All India Jat Akarshan Sangharshi Samiti of Haryana were cut off from the rest of the country, T(AIJSS), an umbrella organization leading the due to the high levels of violence. However, the Jat quota agitation, announced to renew the next second round of protest launched by Jat community

thround of agitation from January 29 2017. A in June 2016 remained peacefully.decision in this regard was taken by the organization in a rally held at village Garhi- Sampla Although the protests are stated to be peaceful, in Rohtak district of Haryana. As per the plan disruptions may occur in states with a high density released for the agitation, Yashpal Malik, of Jats such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar

thPresident of AIJSS, said that from January 29 , Pradesh. The timings of agitation have been 2017 peaceful protests would be launched in all planned keeping in view the elections of Punjab, districts of Haryana till the demands of Jat Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The AIJASS leader community promised by central government on has already declared that the organisation will

ndFebruary 22 , 2016, are not fulfilled. The demands campaign against BJP in the coming assembly include, inclusion of Jat community in OBC list for elections in UP. As the agitation has been stated to the purpose of government jobs and admissions in hurt BJP's electoral chances in the coming state educational institutes, withdrawal of criminal elections, anti-social elements may disrupt the cases registered against youths of Jat community peaceful proceedings. The upcoming state elections during February 2016 violence. combined with the renewed call for Jat agitation

would mean that political tensions would remain The Jat stir for reservation, held in February this high not only Haryana, but also in western Uttar year, had turned vioelnt when around 30 people Pradesh and Punjab. Organisations operating in had lost their lives and hundreds were injured. these regions are advised to monitor the Public as well as private property worth crores of developments and have a business continuity plan rupees was also destroyed. Most parts of the state in place to cater for any eventualities.

All India Jat Arakshan Sangharsh Samiti to renew statewide agitationthfrom January 29

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he Patidar quota agitation leader Hardik Patel blame on the ruling BJP government. Twould enter Gujarat via Shamlaji on January th17 , after six months court ordered exile from The outcome of the PAAS agitation will play an

Gujarat ends. Patel's organisation, PAAS (Patidar important role in the outcome of the Gujarat State Anamat Andolan) are working on mobilizing the Assembly elections. A large-scale mobilization of community members upon return of Hardik Patel. PAAS party members post January 2017 is expected PAAS is looking to renew their agitation post to disrupt the BJP campaign within the state. In Hardik Patel's return. addition, the Patidar community has also received

support from the Aam Admi Party (AAP) post Arvind In August 2015, protests were organized by PAAS Kejrival's visit to Ahmedabad in October this year.

Maratha Kranti Morcha convener Brigadier Sudhir in Ahmedabad, which resulted to large scale This political backdrop will increase the tensions in Samant from Maharashtra and Gujjar leader violence across the state. In October 2015, Hardik Gujarat over the coming months significantly. There Himmat Singh from Rajasthan. The ensuing Patel was charged with sedition by the Gujarat have also been reports within the BJP leadership of

th political momentum and alliances has the potential High Court. On the July 15 , 2016, Hardik Patel was advancing the elections to counter the fall back of to result in a greater agitation base, spreading to granted bail on condition that he stay out of the popularity within the state and the resignation of states like Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Haryana and UP, state for six months and out of Mehsana for nine former Chief Minister Anandiben Patel.where there are already reservation agitations months.ongoing. Meanwhile, Patel is also working on forming

In August 2016, the Gujarat High Court cancelled political alliances with other opposition parties. On ththe 10% reservation for the poor among upper January 28 , a joint rally by Hardik Patel and Bihar

castes. This decision sparked renewed protests by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar are expected to hold a the Patel community and PAAS leaders laid the join rally in Saurashtra. Also in attendance, will be

Hardik Patel to return after six months of probation; rallies planned in the state post his return

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Delhi Haryana Gujarat




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lection Commission of India is expected to SP will challenge each other. In Uttarakhand, there Eannounce the election dates for Uttar are 71 electoral seats. In all the previous elections Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur since 2002, the ruling party has lost the elections. assembly sometime in January. A single day polling So, Congress will be determined to save the is to be held in Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and elections, with BJP in competition. In Punjab, Manipur. UP elections will be conducted in seven Congress and AAP are looking to challenge SAD and phases, from early February to mid-March. At the BJP collaborated government, who have governed end of December, the EC had already put poll- for last 10 years. In Goa, presently BJP is in power. bound states at the ready, stating that the Model AAP and Congress will challenge BJP for 40 electoral Code of Conduct would be implemented soon. seats. Meanwhile, in Manipur, The North-East

Democratic Alliance (NEDA) is challenging the regions must continuously assess the ground In November, the BJP began Parivartan Yatra Congress regime, for a total of 60 seats. situation for any major disruptions, so that business across Uttar Pradesh, to be spread over nearly 50

continuity remains unaffected.days, starting from November 5. The campaign will Given the political importance that Uttar Pradesh

ndend in Lucknow on January 2 with a rally and Punjab hold for all national as well as several addressed by PM Modi. Separately, the Samajwadi regional parties, the political activities in these Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Congress have states are expected to be heightened in the run up also been organizing several rallies across the to the assembly elections, slated for early 2017. state. With the current political instability in Manipur, the

elections there are likely to see political violence. In Uttar Pradesh, a total of 403 constituencies Possibility of political violence cannot be ruled out, would be contested, where BJP, Congress, BSP and in any of these states. Businesses operating in these

Election Commission expected to declare election dates in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur; political campaigning to increase

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stw January 1 :

stw January 1 :

stw January 1 :

ndw January 2 :

rdw January 3 :

thw January 5 :

thw January 6 :

th thw January 6 or 7 :

thw January 13 :

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thw January 20 :

rdw January 23 :

thw January 26 :

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stw January 31 :

Arvind Kejriwal's rally in Rohtak Communist Party of India-Marxist plans protests across

st thWest Bengal against demonetization between January 1 - 10 Trinamool Congress to start a week-long, statewide

st agitation against the Modi government from January 1

Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address BJP booth workers' rally in Lucknow

DMK to hold protest in Madurai, to urge the Union Government to revoke Jallikattu ban

Guru Govind Singh Jayanti Congress to hold countrywide agitation against

demonetisation Haryana Congress to gherao the district

headquarters in Haryana Lohri Makar Sankranti, Pongal, Bihu President and former Prime Minister to attend

bicentennial celebrations of Presidency University in Kolkata Birth Anniversary of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose Republic Day All India Jat Akarshan Sangharshi Samiti to relaunch the

next round of Jat agitation in Haryana Death Anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi Formation day of NSCN

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Delhi Event CalendarNational

Key Dates For January 2016


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1 2 3 4

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Bangladesh Pakistan Sri LankaAfghanistan Myanmar Maldives

The MonthThat Was

epal's new Constitution was adopted on that will be known as Province five. The protesters thNSeptember 20 , 2015. Earlier, at the passage, do not want the Province Number 5, which earlier

anti-constitution protests had already shut down constituted hilly and mountainous districts rich in the southern Tarai plains for nearly five months, natural resources and cultural heritage, to get split.with several deaths of protesters and policemen. Currently, it is the opposition parties such as the Meanwhile, the Madhesi Front has also refused to CPN-UML who are spearheading the anti- back the Constitution amendment bill, on the Constitution protests. The fresh round of agitation grounds that it was not acceptable in its current started when the government of PM Prachanda discriminatory form. In May 2016, 27 parties registered a motion to amend the Constitution to representing Madhesis, Tharus, Janjat is accommodate some of the key demands of the (indigenous tribal), Dalit, women and students

continued to protests on the streets of the country Madhesis and other ethnic groups, which include under a coalition called the Sanghiya Gathbandhan, as well as disturbing the proceedings of the the citizenship issue and delineation of the had presented a 26-point memorandum to the government inside the Parliament. However, with provincial boundary. During one such protest government demanding the redrawing of provincial little progress in dialogues among the ruling parties against the Constitution Amendment Bill, in Kailali boundaries and other crucial amendments to the and plains protesters, the agitation is expected to district, at least 21 activists of CPN-UML were Constitution. continue with the constituents facing an uncertain injured in clashes with police and 70 party workers future.arrested. The demonstrations organised have frequently

been violent. Earlier, the Madhesi agitation had also In the amendment bill, it is proposed to include crippled the landlocked country's economy as parts of Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilvastu, supplies from India were blocked. Political parties Banke, Dang and Bardiya in another Tarai province representing various interest groups have

Protests over proposed changes in the constitution expected to continue; Opposition parties to step up offensive

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Pakistan Sri LankaAfghanistan Myanmar Maldives

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Hindu temple was vandalised and seven idols similar incidents of unrest were reported across Aof goddess Kali were destroyed, in first week Bangladesh; several Hindu areas experienced of December, by some miscreants in two separate attacks of similar religious oppression. incidents in Bangladesh, weeks after over 10 temples of the minority community were attacked The rise of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism in the Muslim-majority nation. The first incident and radical activity in Bangladesh in recent years was reported in Mymensinghorohi village in has taken on the form of bombings, machete Netrokona district, where the temple was attacks and in general generating fear between vandalised and four broken idols of Goddess Kali Muslim and non-Muslim communities. were also found lying close to the temple. In a separate incident, unidentified assailants Attacks on Hindus and other minorities in vandalised three Kali statues in clandestine Bangladesh has surged in the past few years, a rare seen whether any major action is taken to prevent predawn attack on a Hindu temple in phenomenon previously, which has raised security such attacks on the country's largest minority northwestern Pabna district. concerns over the safety of minorities in the community.

country. Since 2013, Bangladesh has experienced a There have been several reports of attacks on series of violent attacks by extremists. The victims Hindu temples since Diwali 2016. In October's last have included atheists, secular bloggers, liberals week, miscreants set on fire at least six houses of and foreigners, as well as members of the country's Hindus in a predawn attack in Brahmanbarhia minority communities which include Buddhists, district's Nasirnagar, the place where at least 15 Christians and Hindus as well as Ahmadis and Shia temples and more than 20 houses were vandalised Muslims. India has already raised the issue of after a Facebook post deemed offensive to Islam attacks against Hindu people in Bangladesh with the sparked outrage in the country. After this incident, Bangladeshi government. However, it remains to be

Two separate attacks on Hindu temples, one in Kaliganj and other in Netrokona district

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thn December 12 , a 1000–individual Sunni he Ahmadiyya Muslim community is no OMuslim mob attacked the Ahmadi Mosque in Tstranger to hate crimes and violence stemming Chakwal district, Punjab province, Pakistan. The from intolerance in Pakistan. The group has been mob open fired, pelted stones and bricks, and set targeted by Islamic extremist and hate groups. An part of the mosque ablaze, injuring several with approximate of 97 Ahmadiyya mosques have been one confirmed death. The Ahmadiyya community subject to arson attacks and protests since 1984. In is a community under one spiritual leader, Khalifa the past, the Lahore Massacre, 2010, is linked to two of Islam Mirza Masroor Ahmad, and is a religious Ahmadi mosques attacked during Friday prayers. minority in Pakistan. The December attack was The massacre resulted in the death of about 100 reportedly in response to the sect celebrating the individuals. Sporadic attacks since 2014 on an birth of Prophet Muhammad. Extremists claim Ahmadi doctor visiting Pakistan and raids of that the Ahmadiyyan belief in Mirza Ahmad as Ahmadiyya Muslim offices have also been carried their Messiah contradicts Islam's principle of out. removing the word Muslim from it. Sunni Muhammad as the last Prophet. extremism is backed by the global intolerance

Globally hate crimes have increased by 31% with towards minority groups and increasing intolerance In 1974, Pakistan constitutionally declared the Pakistan having a sizeable share in the pie. No effort with the spread of radical Islam spearheaded by the Ahmadiyya community as non-Muslims. has been made by Pakistan to change the laws Islamic State.Ahmadiyyas have been taken to court under against the Ahmadi sect. The attack comes in the charges of blasphemy on account of calling wake of the naming of a University Physics Centre themselves Muslims or their religious centres as after Abdus Salam, a Nobel Laureate and member Mosques. In 1984, General Ziaul Haq introduced of the Ahmadi sect. Acknowledging the laws that criminalise Ahmadiyyas on associating contributions of the Ahmadi sect has led to themselves with Islam. extremists defacing Salam's gravestone and

Ahmadi mosque attacked in Punjab province

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thn November 29 , General Qamar Bajwa was Gen. Bajwa with Baluchistan and the needed thOappointed as the 16 Chief of Army Staff in expertise to support the China-Pakistan Economic

Pakistan. The graceful retirement of General Corridor. Baloch insurgents oppose the CPEC Raheel Sharif from the post of army chief marks project, however, Gen. Bajwa on the start of his the one of rare smooth and timely transition for term has asserted that the CPEC will bring in the post of Army Chief. In the last 20 years, this is development for the province.the first time that the change of guard has been passed on to a successor after the completion of a On India–Pakistan relations, the change is not as standard three-years. On the internal front, the eminent as the internal change the new COAS is selection of Gen. Bajwa marks a change in proposed to bring. Coincidentally, both the new civilian–military relations, as the COAS is Chiefs Gen Bajwa of Pakistan and Gen (Designate) considered a pro-democracy and civilian Rawat of India were both brigade commanders with supremacy believer. Since the Pakistani army the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations in towards Kashmir is unlikely, as Army Chief in controls domestic–security issues, there has Congo, although they did not serve together. Gen. Pakistan is known to drum up the anti-India rhetoric always been contention between the civilian Bajwa also served in the X Corp, stationed along the to maintain the support base and appease the government and the military. The change in LoC in PoK. With border tensions escalating and a internal audience. civilian–military relations and the working of the diplomatic stand-off between India and Pakistan institutions in tandem will however be seen in the continuing, the likelihood of General Bajwa's long term. appointment improving relations between the

countries is low. General Bajwa has already made Internally, a short–term gain in the change of statements in Baluchistan hinting at insurgency guard arises with the knowledge and proximity of being incited by India. Moreover, a change in policy

General Qamar Bajwa takes control as Army Chief

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Bangladesh



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Spanish International Red Cross employee video, for the first time in four years, with the Awas abducted in North Afghanistan by an purpose of calling the President elect of America unknown gunman. The man was kidnapped from Donald Trump, to an undisclosed location to free his vehicle on the highway between the northern them. Previously, other insurgent groups have cities of Mazar-e-Sharif and Kunduz on December released videos of other couple, threatening to kill

th20 . He was accompanied by the local staffers in them, unless executions of Taliban prisoners are two cars, who were not taken and were allowed to stopped.leave freely. A fake roadblock was set up for surprise attack on two vehicles travelling without Kidnappings and hostage taking is very common in an escort. Security forces launched an operation to Afghanistan, especially that of the foreigners. Over track the hostage. The motive behind the 150 foreigners have been kidnapped in Afghanistan kidnapping is unknown. since 2001, as Taliban and other insurgent groups

have worsened the security situation in Multiple kidnapping incidents have been reported Afghanistan. this year in Afghanistan. In November, an Australian aid worker was abducted in Kabul by unknown gunman. In August, two professors of Australia and America were kidnapped at the city's American University of Afghanistan.

Taliban, kidnapped American-Canadian couple and their two sons born in captivity also appeared four years ago. Recently, Taliban released their

Spanish Red Cross worker abducted in northern Afghanistan

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Afghanistan



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thn December 6 , dock workers at Hambantota government borrowed heavily from China to fund OPort carried out a strike demanding the Sri the development of the port and now faces a debt Lanka Ports Authority make their temporary trap. The detention of the Japanese car-carrying employment permanent. The dock workers vessel reportedly caused the Sri Lankan detained a Japanese Vessel, carrier Hyperion Government a loss of USD 400,000, some ships had Highway, that had stopped at Hambantota on its to be diverted to Colombo while others just avoided way to Oman. The strike was broken up by the Sri Sri Lanka and went elsewhere.Lanka Navy, by force. The Navy was authorised to open fire to disperse the strike and claims to have The Sri Lankan government plans to privatize the acted within the law to prevent sea piracy. The port in support from China Merchant Port Holdings

faced by the ruling government. In addition, the strikers cut the CCTV connections at the port and Company Limited. The fear of the port being detention of the vessel could erode the confidence disrupted electricity cables. The Port Authority did handed over to the Chinese is seen as another of the international maritime sector in Sri Lanka; the not confirm on the demands made by the dock concern of the protestors. The Sri Lankan country has worked to market itself a location for workers and the port remained under the control government has made a deal to sell 80% of the port strategic ports. of the Navy. to the Chinese company.

Hambantota is a crucial port for Sri Lanka. Given its China prefers to buy stakes in the port as opposed to prime location at the southernmost tip of the the repayment of debt, since Hambantota is a Country, the port lies between the Bay of Bengal crucial port to augment China's String of Pearls and Arabian Sea, a few miles south to one of the strategy. The protest threatens the future of Sri world's major shipping lanes. The Sri Lankan Lanka – China relations given the political pressure

Dock workers protest at Hambantota port



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adical Buddhist Monks, known to have incited and “bloody dog” amongst other things. The cases Rviolence against minority groups in the past, that were being filed at the government even though on the backfoot in recent years are department were against Sinhalese land continuing to enjoy impunity under the current Sri encroachment in minority communities. This Lankan government. On the West coast, in resulted in demonstrations by grama-sevakas and Colombo, the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS), a radical government officials in Batticaloa calling for an Buddhist group, threatened to destroy the Muslim arrest of the monk.majority suburb of Maligawatte. The statement

rdwas made in response to the arrest of Dan On December 3 , the BBS decided to march in Priyashad, who incited Sinhalese youth to bomb support of erecting Buddhist statutes in minority

events highlight the ripples local issues can have at minority communities and rise against Muslims. In areas in Batticaloa. This sparked protest by Muslim the national level, where Sri Lankan Muslims have November, the BBS General Secretary led a protest and Tamil minority groups. The radical monks been accused in the Parliament of having links with in Kandy to highlight the alleged injustices directed challenged the police forces and blocked trains the ISIS. The Government is accused of unofficially towards the Sinhalese Buddhists. No clarification proceeding from Polonnaruva to Batticaloa. The supporting Buddhist radicalism as no action was was made on the injustices, except for a few role of Sinhala youth was high in the movement taken against the BBS secretary or the Batticaloa references made in favour of the proposed reform indicating the growing intolerance in minority monk, in fear of instigating the right-wing forces and to the Muslim Marriage and Divorce Act. regions.disturbing the political balance.

Meanwhile, on the east coast, in Batticaloa, a Events such as these could indicate the following – Buddhist monk threatened to kill a Tamil grama- the resurfacing of the BBS after a few years of sevaka for filing cases against Sinhalese. The monk subdued activity and the incapacity of the used profane language and racial slurs addressing government to check Buddhist radicalism fearing a the Tamil government official as a “bloody tiger” backlash from the Sinhala nationalist forces. These

Radical Buddhist monks protest in Batticaloa and Colombo



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he government of Aung San Suu Kyi has come like camps. They are denied citizenship under Tunder intense international criticism for its Myanmar's 1982 Citizenship Law, which effectively lack of action against the alleged ongoing violence renders them stateless.against the minority Rohingya community in the country. In early October, a coordinated attack was The security forces have been accused of rape, conducted in Maungdaw Township, which left nice arson and killing civilians during operations. Earlier, policemen dead. The government blamed the hundreds of Rohingyas were killed in communal group called Harakah al-Yaqin (Faith Movement, clashes in Rakhine, in 2012, which had then lead to a HaY), a Rohingya militant organization. mass exodus of the community. Recent years have Significantly, this was the first coordinated attack seen more Rohingya fleeing the country. Since of the Rohingyas striking on the security forces of 2012, the UNHCR estimates that more than 110,000 Myanmar. However, this attack has led to large- people, mostly Rohingya, have fled to Bangladesh,

group has stated that violence against the scale action by the security in the Rakhine Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia.Rohingyas is increasing the threat of radicalisation province, where most of the Rohingyas live, to the benefit of jihadist groups. AQIS and Islamic termed as a "collective punishment of the There are reports of Rohingyas also heading to India State have referred to the plight of Rohingyas in Rohingya minority". This has, again, led to the in larger numbers than before. There are an their propaganda, and the combat experience of at mass exodus of Rohingyas from Myanmar, over estimated 36,000 Rohingyas in India currently, least some of the HaY fighters suggests links to fears of persecution. mostly in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Andhra international militants. The spread of radical Pradesh, Kerala, Assam, Jammu and Kashmir and ideology among the surprised Rohingyas possess a Muslim Rohingyas reside in the majority Buddhist Delhi.threat to the security of Myanmar as well as the country and make up around one million. About wider South Asia and Southeast Asia regions. 140,000 Rohingya in Rakhine state live in ghetto- Meanwhile, a recent report by International crisis

Rohingyas continue to flee the country over fear of persecution



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he Directorate of Investment and Companies companies put money to work in Myanmar. Such TAdministration (DICA) of the Ministry of provisions in the new law will help in strengthening National Planning and Economic Development, shareholder's rights and duties of directors it will with the assistance of Asian Development Bank, help raise the level of transparency across firms. has started to draft the Myanmar Company Law ('MCL'). This new law is intended to be consistent Under the most recent draft of the Companies Law, with the international best practice and replace foreign investors can own up to 35% of the shares in the Myanmar Companies Act 1914 (MCA). a locally owned Myanmar company before it is

considered a foreign owned company. Foreigners Unlike the old law for companies. this Companies are also no longer required to obtain prior approval Law intends to bring Myanmar's corporate legal from DICA to purchase shares in a Myanmar framework closer to modern day international Company.standards and accommodates for the realities of modern day business practices. This updated The Companies act will also fill in gaps in the existing Companies Act, is to reduce compliance costs and Myanmar Companies Act, by laying out duties and regulatory burdens for firms, as well as enhance obligations for the directors, stipulates the power of corporate governance. This means that when the registrars to regulate companies and allow for the Companies Act is finally, business functioning use of electronic communication methods – should become easier for local firms. something not covered in the 1914 law. Senior

government officials have said, previously, that the The Companies Act is aimed to building a strong new Companies Act could also pave the way for framework to govern the Investment Law, which is foreign firms to list on the Yangon Stock Exchange. further designed to help foreign and local

Government to introduce the Myanmar Companies Law



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ecently, two European tourists, from Spain Ongoing vector control programs that have Rand Germany, tested positive for Zika virus. controlled the spread of Malaria and Filariasis have The cases have been linked to travel to Maldives been enhanced. Programs for control of Aedes during the months of February and June. Prior, aegypti mosquito, that transmits dengue and Zika, Zika was reported in January 2016, when a Finnish are being focused on. Since Maldives sees periodic national tested positive for Zika upon return from outbreak of Dengue, the risk of Zika spread Maldives. The World Health Organization intensifies. The government has also requested reclassified Maldives to category–2 country, visitors to ensure they are vaccinated as per travel indicating possible endemic transmission or guidelines issued by the WHO.evidence of local mosquito-borne Zika infections.

Maldives is the first country in South Asia to report a Zika-Dengue-Chikungunya toolkit that enables The Maldivian government has intensified case in 2016. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh are countries to eliminate mosquito-breeding sites screening for Zika virus at the Indira Gandhi highly vulnerable to the spread of Zika virus given decrease health risks in South Asia. The risk of Memorial Hospital, Male. This is part of the the lack of effective screening of tourists that travel spread of Zika in South Asia has increased with the ongoing health surveillance by Maldives' Health to Maldives and back to these countries. Moreover, high footfall during tourist season in the months of Protection Agency. The Maldives government has WHO has listed Bangladesh under category–2, December and January.further launched a nation-wide campaign for indicating that Zika cases have been reported in

vector control and surveillance, and increased 2015 and prior. According to Sri Lanka Red Cross laboratory services for Zika testing. Give the Society, there have been over 2,200 cases reported intensified screening two Maldivian locals out of for dengue in 2016 alone. Sri Lanka Red Cross, along 517 locals tested, were found positive for Zika. with national Red Cross societies, aims to roll out a

Zika virus reported in Male; nationwide screening undertaken

Maldives



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Nepal

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1

th 24 January:

st January: Opposition meeting in response to proposed Constitution Amendment Bill

th29 January: Martyr's Memorial Day

th th12 to 26 January: Ananda Pagoda Festival

th6 January: CPN-UML to hold mass demonstrations in Kathmandu

th29 January: Sonam Loser (Tamang New Year)

th8 January: Protest in Bajuar Agency

th14 January: Maghe Sankrankti/Makar Sakranti

th4 January: Independence Day

th15 January: Protest in Khyber Agency

th10 January: Kayin New Year

Kayin New Year is a public holiday in Myanmar. It Constitution, outside the Constituent Assembly is a celebration by the Kayin communities in the hall in Kathmandu. Kayin State of Myanmar.

An alliance of opposition parties, led by CPN- Every year Nepalese observe Martyrs' Day in the UML of Nepal, to organize meeting and rally in

The festival is arranged in Bagan, the most famous memory of four martyrs named Shukra Raj Shastri, response to the Constitution amendment ancient city of Myanmar. Ananda Pagoda Festival Dharma Bhakta Mathema, Ganga Lal Shrestha and proposal. Student Unions affiliated with the is one of the biggest in Bagan. Myanmar uses Dashrath Chand and others who sacrificed their opposition urged PM Dahal to withdraw the bill.traditional lunar calendar and the date shifts life to end the autocratic Rana regime and accordingly year to year. established democracy in Nepal.

Mass demonstrations, organised by opposition Sonam Losar is of major importance. Many people parties, to be held in Kathmandu, against the go to monasteries, temples, and shrines to take registered Constitution Amendment Bill. Protest to be launched by Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam-part in various ceremonies on "Sonam Losar Eve". Fazl (JUI-F) against the proposed merger of tribal

areas of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Makar Sankranti is one of the most auspicious Areas) into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. occasions for the Hindus. Makar Sankranti is perhaps the only Indian festival whose date Independence Day is a national holiday. The always falls on the same day every year. Protest launched by Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl holidays marks the date in 1948 when Myanmar

(JUI-F) against the proposed merger of tribal areas proclaimed its independence from Britain. Amendment of Nepal's Constitution of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas)

People celebrate the adoption of Nepal's new into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

South Asia Event Calendar – January 2017

Event Calendar



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South Asia Event Calendar – January 2017

Event Calendar



th th20 January: Death Anniversary of Khan Abdul 12 January: Duruthu Poya Ghaffar Khan

th7 January: BNP announces plan to hold a rally at Dhaka's Suhrawardy Udyan

th29 January: Protest in Mohmand Agency

th15 January: Thai Pongal National Ceremony

th26 January : Hartal called in Dhaka by anti-Rampal protestors

th6 January: Bandaranayake International Airport to remain closed

th5 January: Awami League to mark the day as “triumph of Democracy Day”

the day when “democracy triumphed” in Every full moon day in a month is a public holiday corroboration of the anniversary of last general

On this day in 2016, Dara Adma Khel faction of to celebrate Poya. Its significance lies in different elections.TTP attacked Bacha Khan University that was Buddhist events and is celebrated by the commemorating the death of Gandhian and dominant Buddhist population. This day marks the Pashtun independence activist. first of the three visits of Lord Buddha to Sri Lanka

after his enlightenment. It is the biggest festival, The BNP has announced a nationwide programme widely celebrated and huge parades around to protest the third year of Awami League rule

thProtest launched by Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl temples, especially at Gengaramaya Temple in since the 10 Parliamentary Elections. The (JUI-F) against the proposed merger of tribal Colombo. programmes include protest marches in all

thareas of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal districts and Upazilas on January 5 and a rally in thAreas) into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Dhaka's Suhrawardy on January 7 .

th thFour Day event from 14 to 17 January, Hindu festival, celebrated by the minority Indian andSrilankan Tamils in Sri Lanka, forming about 13% of the population. It is a Tamil thanksgiving Campaigners have called for a half-day shutdown

thceremony. in the capital on January 26 . demanding that the government scrap Rampal power plant near the For runway renovations, the Bandaranayake Sunderbans.International Airport will remain closed from the

first week of January. Colombo International Airport will also have changed operation timings.

Ruling Awami League will celebrate January 5th as

Sri Lanka

Bangladesh

Maldives

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RegionalSnapshot

December Events & Incidents

st§December 1 :

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Odisha: An exchange of fire took place between SOG jawans and the CPI-Maoist cadres near Lankagarh gram panchayat in Kandhamal district.

Chhattisgarh: Maoists have called for an agitation against the move for disinvestment of NMDC steel plant at Nagarnar in Bastar saying the move was aimed at handing over the region's natural wealth to corporate.

Telangana: Three persons were arrested as Police in Mahabubnagar district, claimed to have thwarted an attempt by the CPI-Maoist to convert old currency to the tune of INR 1.2 million with new notes by unlawful means.

Chhattisgarh: Two CoBRA personnel, including a SI were injured after they stepped over a spike trap laid by the CPI-Maoist cadres in Bijapur district.

Jharkhand: Suspected Naxalites apparently belonging to a newly formed outfit raided a road construction site, thrashed workers and set ablaze four SUVs in Keredari in Hazaribagh district.

Chhattisgarh: A former sarpanch of a village was seriously injured in a pressure bomb blast, allegedly planted by Maoists, at Polampalli village in Sukma district.

Chhattisgarh: A group of CPI-Maoist cadres allegedly killed a 55-year-old man after accusing him of being a member of the erstwhile Salwa Judum in Bijapur district.

Chhattisgarh: Security Forces have discovered a CPI-Maoist dump and unearthed electronic items and medical equipment from a densely forested area in Rajnandgaon district.

Chhattisgarh: A CRPF jawan was killed and another one injured when CPI-Maoist cadres triggered an IED blast followed by firing in Dantewada district.



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th§December 6 :

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Jharkhand: Chatra District Police arrested an 'area commander' of the PLFI, a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist. Andhra Pradesh: The District Police detected two heavily loaded IEDs planted by the CPI-Maoist cadres near Kumada village in Vishakhapatnam

district. Jharkhand: A 'sub-zonal commander' of CPI-Maoist, carrying a bounty of INR 500,000, surrendered before Palamu, DIG of Police Chhattisgarh: Three IEDs, weighing five kilograms each, planted by the CPI-Maoist, were unearthed by a team of CRPF in Sukma district. Telangana: A senior CPI-Maoist cadre carrying a reward of INR 300,000 on his head, involved in six major offences, including the murder of

Greyhounds Reserve Inspector surrendered in Bhadradri Kothagudem District. Chhattisgarh: A powerful pressure IED planted by CPI-Maoist cadres, was was unearthed by a team of CRPF's personnel in Sukma district, while they

were out on road security operation.Chhattisgarh: A Maoist sympathizer, allegedly trying to illegally exchange over INR 100,000 in scrapped INR 1,000 currency notes for the new ones,

was arrested in Dantewada d Chhattisgarh: Four CPI-Maoist leaders, carrying cash rewards of various amounts on their heads, were arrested from Karkeli weekly market in Bijapur

district. Jharkhand: Bermo Police in Bokaro district arrested a hardcore Maoist wanted in dozen cases.

Bihar: Security Forces arrested three CPI-Maoist cadres including the founder of JJMP, a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist, during a raid at a place under NTPC Khaira Police Station in Aurangabad district.

Jharkhand: Police recovered a huge cache of 120 IEDs, two cylinder bombs, weighing five kilograms each, and 200 meters of codex wire, used in landmine blasts, from a Maoist hideout in Barwaiya forests in Latehar district.

Telangana: A CPI-Maoist couple, allegedly involved in several cases including attacks on Police personnel in Telangana and Chhattisgarh and carrying hefty reward on their heads, surrendered in Jaishankar Bhupalpally district.

Chhattisgarh: A villager was killed and another injured when they were reportedly caught in crossfire between Security Forces and CPI-Maoist cadres in Bijapur district.

26


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NaxalTracker




th§December 13 :

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Chhattisgarh: Three Maoists allegedly involved in the murder of an Assistant Constable were arrested from the forest of Cherli Nilavaya in Bijapur District.

Chhattisgarh: A top Maoist carrying a cash reward of INR 800,000 surrendered in Dantewada district. Bihar: Four CPI-Maoist cadres were arrested from a forest under Rajauli Police Station in Nawada district during a combing operation. The ultras had

set several railway equipment and vehicles at the newly-constructed Kharond railway station on fire on October 3 besides furling black flags on Independence Day.Andhra Pradesh: A CPI-Maoist couple belonging to the Sabari Area Committee surrendered to East Godavari district.Chhattisgarh: Two bodies of Maoists were recovered after two separate encounters with the District Police in the Bijapur district. Chhattisgarh: The Security Forces from Narayanpur district recovered two dead bodies allegedly of the Maoists & a large number of arms and

ammunition. Odisha: District Police recovered the body of T Anil Kumar alias Chandu, a former CPI-Maoist cadre of KSSZC of CPI-Maoist, from Kanti Village in

Koraput district. Chhattisgarh: CPI-Maoist cadres hacked to death the husband of a village sarpanch on the suspicion of him being a 'Police informer' in Dantewada

district. Chhattisgarh: Six Maoist cadres, including a 'commander' surrendered in Kanker district. Tamil Nadu: Three of five CPI-Maoist cadres lodged in the Central Jail in Coimbatore district, observed a daylong fast to condemn the 'encounter'

killing of two CPI-Maoist leaders near Nilambur in Kerala.Andhra Pradesh: Three 'landmines' reportedly placed by CPI-Maoist cadres were found in East Godavari district by Security forces. Jharkhand: A hardcore CPI-Maoist Devilal Marandi, involved in the killing of Police personnel, who carried a reward of INR 200,000, was arrested

from his home at Haldipahari in Dumka district. Jharkhand: Security forces arrested two left-wing Maoist rebels belonging to Tritiya Prastuti Committee (TPC) a splinter group of the Communist

Party of India-Maoist in Jharkhand province. Bihar: A woman in northern Bihar was allegedly gang-raped by six men belonging to a Maoist outfit as punishment for refusing to join the outfit as a

cadre.

27


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nd§December 22 :

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th§December 29 :

Bihar: Security Forces arrested man who delivered arms and ammunition to Maoists in Jehanabad district.Maharashtra: 69 trucks and three JCBs at an iron mine were torched, in Gadchiroli district.

Maharashtra: Maoist killed one and torched seven vehicles engaged in road works. Chhattisgarh: A joint team of Chhattisgarh police special task force (STF), district reserve guards (DRG) and local police shot dead a Maoist in an

encounter near Regdagatta.Odisha: Maoists murdered the husband of a naib sarpanch in Odisha's Koraput district and torched at least seven vehicles engaged in road works.Chhattisgarh: A CRPF personnel was injured as Maoist rebels detonated a pipe bomb when the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) 168 Battalion

team was patrolling, attacking one CRPF personnel in Bijapur district Chhattisgarh: Twelve Maoists were arrested in Bijapur district, including those involved in the Rani Bodli camp attack and the murder of sub-

inspector.



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Security forces on alert in Kerala and Chhattisgarh following reports of Maoist movements

Prime Minister's policy of demonetisation of high denomination notes has reportedly hit funding in key areas of Left wing extremism(LWE). The Maoist insurgent groups are considered the worst hit, and stand to lose out on a large amount of cash that they had amassed through extortion of government companies, mining corporate, businesses and private contractors. The sources of funding of these insurgent groups is also through these illegal activities, payments for which is made usually in cash.

Police reports from LWE hit areas of Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Odisha have stated that almost no activity in the forest areas has taken place, since the demonetisation was announced. Cash of 44.25 lakhs in the banned denominations and jewellery was also recovered from Kondagaon. Meanwhile, Maoists have resorted to threatening the elderly to exchange notes from the banks. Police in the region have conducted search operations to ensure Maoist sympathisers do not support such a move. Security around the banks and ATMs was increased in the region as the Maoists may attempt to attack. As per the Home Ministry, Maoists collect over Rs 150 crores annually from illegal activities such as prostitution, extortion, and murder. After demonetisation, Maoists are facing severe shortage of commodities and are prone to take desperate measures to ensure survival. A group of 10 Maoists have surrendered to the police in Chikamangalur, Karnataka and stated that they have no means to survive. There is also speculation that their finances would be hit about only 20 percent to 30 percent because of the demonetisation move.

The demonetisation is stated to have had an exponentially large impact on the whole structure of Maoist funding. This may not be the decline of Maoism but could result in drastic measures taken by the group's members to ensure survival. There is a need for the government to undertake stringent measures so as to cut the sources of funding for the Maoists.

29

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The MonthThat Was


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In a sign of growing presence of Maoists in Southern India, police kill two Maoists in an encounter in Kerala

The year 2016 witnessed a resurgence of Naxal activities, reinforcing the fact that Naxalism is still an integral threat to India's security. 2013-14, on the other hand, saw a dip in the levels of violence; Naxals have been using this time for unarmed propaganda, strategic planning. The tri-junction approach has helped the Maoists survive for over half a century in several regions across the country. Tri-junctions present Naxals several favorable conditions - the forests offer them invisibility; the rough terrain hinders the accessibility of the security forces; and the administrative boundaries offer administrative limitations and create confusion between the government departments in terms of accountability and execution of action. During the 1970's, Naxal activity was focused in Orissa-Andhra Pradesh-Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand-Bihar-Orissa-West Bengal Tri-junctions.

The Chhattisgarh-Telangana-Odisha and the Karnataka-Kerala-Tamil Nadu tri-junction is a current hotspot. Security forces in the respective states have been involved in an offensive to contain Naxals in the region. In Kerala, the Naxal movement has been found in five districts — Palakkad, Malappuram, Wayanad, Thrissur and Kannur. Two CPI-Maoist, Kuppu Deveraj and Ajitha, were killed in an encounter with the Kerala police in the

thNilambur forest division in Malappuram District of Kerala on November 24 . In Chhattisgarh, Dantewada, Bastar, Bijapur and Sukma are the main centres of Naxal activity currently. Several arrests, surrenders have also been reported from Chhattisgarh. Raipur Police confiscated over INR 40

thmillion, on December 25 , that they suspect belongs to the CPI-Maoists.

rdThe major attack by Maoists, was witnessed on December 23 , 69 trucks and three JCBs at an iron mine were torched, in Maharashtra's Gadchiroli

thdistrict. On December 24 , Maoist killed one and torched seven vehicles engaged in road works. The sustained operations by the security forces in the areas where Maoists are the most dominant, and in recent times, the stepping up of security in the southern Indian states of Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, as ensured that Maoist activities, in these regions is on the decline. However, sustained, long-term operations along with socio-economic developments in the Maoist-affected areas is needed to end the Maoist insurgency.

Naxal trends



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NaxalTracker

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MonthlyForecast


India Pakistan

Bangladesh

Afghanistan

th th§December 17 : §December 5 :

rd st§December 23 : §December 21 :

th§December 26 :

th§December 8 :

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Islamic State suspect arrested in Kullu Himachal Pakistani forces kill five Sunni militants, who had Pradesh, who belongs to Bengaluru. linked with the Islamic State group

A 41-year-old man was detained by immigration Police officials and Counter-Terrorism Department officers at Mangalore International Airport (MIA), over suspicion of (CTD) arrested a key IS member from Pakistan Punjab province, planning to join Islamic State. He was later released from NIA along with the terror group's flags and weapons.custody after he furnished a bond.

Indian National Investigation Agency revealed that an arrested an Islamic State sympathizer has confessed that he was Rapid Action Battalion arrested five suspect of Islamic planning to carry out attack on the Mother Housein Kolkata. State, who were planning to break their leader out of prison.

Police arrested two militants of JMB, who planned the attack on Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka in July. They were

The Afghan security forces seized two rockets were arrested with some books, leaflets and weapons.confiscated before the militants managed to fire them on the city. Two suspected militants detonated suicide bombs

National Directorate of Security (NDS) arrested 10 during a police raid in Dhaka. people, including key IS figures involved in recent Kabul attack.

Hundreds of local villagers freed from Islamic State control in eastern Afghan district are reportedly signing up to join a militia to fight IS.

Islamic State South Asia Tracker – 2016December

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31

NaxalTracker

Malaysia's armed forces chief General Tan Sri There have been recent postings on social media trying to instigate violence by posting fake pictures Zulkifeli Mohd Zin has urged the Myanmar such as Twitter and Facebook by the Islamic State and false information about the persecution of the government to resolve the Rohingya crisis before encouraging Rohingyas to look towards the IS in Rohingya.the Islamic State exploit it to extend its influence in their time of need. The Islamic State, has been the region. A military crackdown in Rakhine since paying attention to the plight of the Rohingya well October has pushed tens of thousands of Rohingya before images of hundreds of people fleeing across the border into Bangladesh, with survivors religious discrimination and communal violence in recounting how whole villages were razed to the Myanmar's Rakhine state dominated recent ground and the community suffered rape, torture headlines. In a speech last year, the IS leader Abu and murder at the hands of Myanmar security Bakr al-Baghdadi alluded to the Rohingyas as forces. among the oppressed Muslim populations

worldwide that the IS was looking to lift up. Myanmar has maintained that its military is hunting down militants behind the October Pro-Rohingya demonstrations have also taken place attacks on its border posts. The government has in the capital cities of many South Asian and denied allegations of abuse and banned foreign Southeast Asian countries. Muslim extremists and journalists and independent investigators from radical groups from as far away as the Horn of Africa the area. Much of Buddhist-majority Myanmar have taken advantage of the situation, fueling the views the Rohingya as illegal immigrants from outrage by spreading propaganda about it. Bangladesh, even though many Rohingya have According to a report published in the Dhaka lived there for generations. Tribune, Bangladeshi Islamist groups have been

Myanmar: IS will exploit Rohingya crisis, Malaysia military chief warns Myanmar

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According to the observation by the UN Security Afghanistan-Pakistan border. According to the Council's 1267 monitoring committee, the report, the group runs a fairly effective propaganda presence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan has programme in Afghanistan but the core funding for weakened significantly by the end of 2016. This the group continues to come from Iraq and Syria. UNSC monitoring committee's findings contradict the Pakistan-Russia narrative which is pushing IS as Despite the UNSC report claiming a decline in the the greatest threat in Afghanistan. influence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan, the

external support of terrorist groups in the country According to the UNSC report, during the height of and the support they receive from outside the IS influence in Afghanistan, the group governments continues to remain a concern. The controlled nine districts in Nangarhar Province as convergence of terrorist groups in the Afghan-Pak opposed to three by the end of 2016. The region into more virulent strains is a major security increasing clashes between the Islamic State and threat in the region. Afghanistan has led to the dwindling influence of the group. The number of Islamic State fighters in eastern Afghanistan have dropped to 1,600 and they are mainly located in the districts of Deh Bala, Kot, Achin and Naziyan in Nangarhar Province.

The UNSC panel also observed that a large portion of the IS members in Afghanistan came from the

Afghanistan: Islamic State weakened in the country, claims UNSC report

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Two suspected Islamic State members were foiled planned attacks by the IS on foreign arrested by the Counter-Terrorism Department embassies and Islamabad airport. during a raid in Sargodha district, 200 km from Following the setbacks in West Asia, the Islamic Lahore. The police also found IS flags and weapons State will seek to establish itself in South Asia and it during the raid. In another raid, the police claimed has been struggling for traction in Pakistan in the to have killed five suspected IS terrorists during a face of competition from well-established terrorist shootout at Dera Ghazi Khan district of Punjab. groups. The IS gained its initial influence in the

country in January 2015 when six Pakistani Taliban The Islamic State also claimed responsibility for leaders switched their allegiance over from Al-killing of a counter-terrorism official in Peshawar. Qaeda to the Islamic State. The IS declared in a statement on December 11th that they carried out the shooting but did not give any other details. In October, an intelligence officer was shot dead in Charsadda district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by two gunmen on a motorcycle.

The government has continued to deny the presence of the Islamic State in the country but senior officials in both Karachi and Punjab province have admitted, however, that their forces had carried out raids against ISIS militants. In September 2016, the military claimed to have

Pakistan: Suspected Islamic State operatives arrested during raids in Punjab province

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A 41-year-old man was detained by the arrested nearly 70 supporters IS in various parts of immigration officers at Mangalore International the country. Last month, the anti-terrorist squad

rdAirport (MIA), on December 23 , over suspicion of (ATS) of Rajasthan Police arrested an alleged Islamic planning to join Islamic State. The man was State (IS) operative in Sikar district who was detained based on a lookout circular when he involved in collecting and transferring funds for the boarded a plane bound for Sharjah. He reportedly terror organisation from Dubai. The Sikar arrest and told the officers that as he was asked by one Fajida the new development in the Hyderabad module Vadagere to join IS, and that he had intended to bust come as part of a pan-India, multi-agency meet Fajida in Tokyo. Soon after his detention, the crackdown on Islamic State networks in India. In suspect was handed over to the National July, the NIA had arrested seven persons from the Investigation Agency, (NIA) for interrogation. But Old City area of Hyderabad alleging that they were he was later released from custody, after he conspiring to carry out terrorist attacks in furnished a bond. Hyderabad. This was followed by the busting of the

Parbhani module in Maharashtra. Later, in October, In another instance a 23-year-old man from NIA arrested six IS-inspired operatives from Kerala Bengaluru with alleged IS links was arrested from and Tamil Nadu who were planning attacks in Kerala Banjar area in Kullu district of Himachal Pradesh. and rest of the country.Abeed Khad was arrested from a church where he was staying with a fake identity over the past four to five months. As per reports, the accused was planning to reach Syria via Indonesia.

The NIA and state security agencies have so far

India: Suspected Islamic State supporters arrested in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka

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Two militants were killed in separate suicide blasts Bangladesh, notably the Neo-JMB is fielding a high when Bangladesh Police raided their hideout in number of female jihadists. Neo JMB, an offshoot of

thDhaka's Ashkona area on December 24 . The JMB, is inspired by the ideologies of Islamic State. In police claimed that the militants belonged to the July, terrorists attacked a cafe in Dhaka killing 22 Jamaat-ul Mujahidden Bangladesh (JMB). A people. Officials said the attackers belonged to the woman said to have links with the banned militant JMB group, although so-called Islamic State said it group has blown herself up during the police raid. carried out the attack. Over the last few months, law The case is believed to be the first of its kind in the enforcers have conducted counter-terrorism raids country involving a female suicide bomber. in Kalyanpur, Rupnagar, Azimpur, Savar,

Narayanganj, Gazipur and Tangail, killing 26 During another raid by the Rapid Action Batallion suspected militants including the Neo-JMB

thin Dhaka on December 20 , two militants of the coordinator Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury, thought to banned Jamaat-ul Mujahidden Bangladesh (JMB) be one of the masterminds of the Holey Artisan were arrested. The arrested individuals were bakery attack.reportedly involved in raising funds and arranging accommodation for JMB activists. The law enforcement agency further stated that the militants belonged to the Saroar-Tamim faction of the Islamist outfit.

Fatal detonation of an explosive by a female militant during the police raid gave another example that the new wave of violent extremists in

Bangladesh: Counter terrorism units carries out massive raids against JMB in Dhaka; one female suicide bomber blows up herself

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Critical Infrastructure

Security Breakdown

Aspects of Critical Infrastructure Failure in India

The Indian perspective is unique as there are three manufacturing and social scenario has led to a major challenges to critical infrastructure failure – growth in the list of critical infrastructure to Critical Infrastructures are usually divided into security breakdown, which involves anything from accommodate the chemical sector, transportation, physical and socio-economic infrastructure terror attacks to corporate sabotage; natural the defense industrial base, information and systems. Physical Critical Infrastructure calamities and structural failure as well as geo telecommunications, banking and finance, encompasses all basic services such as electricity political unrest. agriculture, food, water, public heath, government and water supply, waste (water) management,

services, emergency services, and postal and transport or information and telecommunication shipping.technologies. Socio-economic infrastructures

instead include facilities such as hospitals and A security break down would include an array of schools but also public administration. aspects such as vandalism, break ins and extremist

attacks. If these events take place at a Today's base industrial trend is to build “lean” and manufacturing unit, the after effects are localized, The threat of catastrophic terrorism has created a operate “agile” and many functions are however on a critical infrastructure unit – the new relationship between national security and programmed to be 'just in time'; this often entails effects are multiple.routine business decisions in private firms providing increasing the dependency on a single infrastructure services. The never-ending race for infrastructure unit. A simple example would be the Case Study: A band of saboteurs that calls itself the economy of scale and of scope that guarantees shift to building bridges that can accommodate “Niger Delta Avengers” has left the economy in better results also leads to reduced redundancy, both rail and road – Sydney Harbor bridge, Afghan- shreds, thanks to a four-month long string of concentrated assets, and centralized control points. Uzbek friendship bridge and the Godavari Bridge operations targeting oil pipelines. They achieved An increased dependence on a single point of are just a few examples. An infrastructure is this by bombings and diving underwater to disrupt infrastructure also tends to multiply failure after-“critical” when the services it provides are vital to vital valves and pressure circuits. The resultant effects.the nation at large. Today's inter related disruptions which included pipelines owned by

Securing Critical Physical Infrastructure in India – An IoT Perspective

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Royal Dutch Shell and Eni Spa resulted Nigeria's with historic data) and situational intelligence Indian Journal of Science and Technology has also economy contracting by 0.36% and losing it's top (understand real time data and execute SOP's to released a white paper and the results of basic Oil producing and distribution ranking in Africa to prevent chain reactions) platforms can help experiments conducted on the implementation of Angola. mitigate risks in a stream lined manner internally “IoT based Railway Calamity Avoidance System”

and externally. using cloud computing technology and cost In an Indian Scenario Gammon India is building e f f e c t i v e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n d e v i c e s t o pipelines for Indian Oil Corporation, Gujarat State comprehensively track the railway line status over Petronet and GAIL in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar long distances and more importantly “linking track The Indore Patna Train accident in Kanpur that took and Orissa. Many of these pipelines are passing statuses to the signaling network” using Wi-Fi and the lives of 150 passengers is still fresh in the minds through historic high risk areas such as Saharanpur mobile networks to disseminate the information to of Indians and the global community. The official in Uttar Pradesh and Barauni in Bihar where risk all stakeholders.cause for the accident is said to be a rail fracture. mitigation infrastructure is lower than the national However, in the recent past the railway ministry has average and sabotage related incidents are higher. A wide spread implementation of such systems will increased the speed of passenger trains by Similar attacks could see losses of large amounts go a long way in ensuring a higher level of safety and 5km/hour and commissioned heavier 25-tonne axle along with disruption in supplies. goods continuityload wagons on freight routes, this on existing

railway infrastructure.IoT platforms for securing such vital platforms can include a multitude of sensors. However, sensors IoT platforms have already been successfully detecting a breach is not the only solution. implemented in railway projects countries such as Integrating these inputs with Situational Japan and the UK. Japan has seen tremendous

The recent Maoist attacks in Gadchiroli during awareness (quick dissemination of breach success in railway line integrity despite being in one which over 70 vehicles of a mining firm were set information to various departments miles away), of the most active seismic zones of the world and ablaze resulting in a complete shut-down of Predictive analysis (use geo political inputs along trains reaching speeds of over 250 km/hour. The

Structural Failure: A Railway Outlook

Key Prospective Geopolitical locations for implementing IoT applications towards securing Critical Infrastructure


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operations. The lack of physical security in large critical infrastructure in the IoT. Shodan is just like swaths of area could be addressed by IoT sensors Google, only it crawls the Internet looking for and allied communication alerting mechanisms. devices instead of websites. States such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Assam etc. that have critical infrastructure According to a survey taken by several Security projects lined up such as dams, high power heads across India an IoT platform poses more of a transmission grids, power plants etc. in conflict risk due to security threats such as Distributed regions will benefit from IoT security applications Denial of Service attacks (DDoS) and data privacy to a large scale. China has already taken steps to issues. However these risks are more profound in a use IoT in securing their power grid in remote and Cyber Security framework and has profound failure recovery and activation of redundancy geo-political risk zones. implications in financial institutions or commercial procedures

technology oriented industries. ·Adopt sensors that can be integrated to a closed IP connection

Critics may also argue and rightly so – that IoT ·Integrate predictive analysis of infrastructure applications have a flip side and can dramatically breakdown using critical data points from sensorsincrease critical infrastructure vulnerability. India ·Distribution of critical threshold data to all has seen a host of cyber-attacks carried out by organizational stakeholders

The key aspects to implementing IoT in securing China and Pakistan. Broadcast of data from The applications of IoT within the security of critical critical infrastructure are:various access points on to the internet protocol infrastructure are wide ranging. As India is ·Identifying the scenarios that lead to a security has risks that can be exploited in a destructive witnessing a threat on multiple fronts securing breachmanner. One of the scarier aspects of this problem physical critical infrastructure from communal ·Identify the worst-case scenario that can happen is the ease with which hackers, using a search violence, terrorism and insurgency will remain a due to the security breachengine called "Shodan," can find unprotected critical challenge.·Identify departments that play a primary role in

IoT, a double – edged weapon?Guidelines for Implementing security of Physical Critical Infrastructure through IoT


Malcolm is an Analyst at MitKat's Information Services Team.

- Malcolm Cooper,

MitKat Advisory Services

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