Igarashi Motors CMP Target Rating - Spark...

13
Page 1 Igarashi Motors CMP Rs. 677 Target Rs. 750 Rating BUY Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>), Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset Rating: ◄► Target price: ◄► EPS: ◄► How does our one year outlook change? We reaffirm our positive stance on Igarashi Motors (IGM) basis our belief that belief that the penetration of the Torque Actuator Motor applications constituting IGM’s product portfolio (Electronic Throttle Control, Exhaust Gas Recirculation and Turbochargers) will increase manifold over the medium term as PV OEMS increasingly turn towards power electronics as a panacea to achieve adherence to strict CO2 and fuel economy regulations coming into force. Our belief is further reinforced by IGM’s increasing presence in new vehicle platforms deploying the aforesaid technologies, which also enhances the visibility/certainty of revenue. We value the stock at Rs. 750, basis 25x FY18 EPS IGM is now increasingly focused on expanding its presence in the EGR and Turbocharger applications, which currently account for only ~10-15% of its revenue, tail coating on orders from anchor customers as also new orders on the anvil for these applications. IGM registered a YoY revenue growth of 15% in 1QFY17, with volume growth of ~17%, with realizations coming off as guided. Expect revenue to grow at CAGR of ~20% through FY16-FY18, led by increase in volumes. EBITDA margin for the quarter came in at 24.4%, a QoQ growth of ~85bps, constrained by increase in material costs by ~225bps and employee costs by ~50bps. The same was offset by the decline in other expenses by ~190bps QoQ.. Expect EBITDA margin to come in at ~ 23.8% and ~ 22.3% in FY17/FY18, led by commodity price pressures. IGM’s project specific capacity additions are expected to continue at ~6.5% - 7% of the revenue over FY17/FY18. Expect capex of ~Rs. 800mn over FY17 and FY18. Financial summary Year Revenues (Rs. mn) EBITDA (%) Adj .PAT (Rs. mn) Adj EPS (Rs.) P/E(x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY15 4,450 24.1% 636 20.8 32.5 18.6 FY16 5,430 23.8% 798 26.1 26.0 15.1 FY17E 6,443 22.3% 900 29.4 23.0 14.4 FY18E 4,450 24.1% 636 20.8 32.5 18.6 Key estimate revision FY17E FY18E Old New Change Old New Change Revenue 5,423 5,430 0.1% 6,432 6,443 0.2% EBITDA 1,288 1,290 0.2% 1,431 1,434 0.2% Margin (%) 23.8% 23.8% 1 bps 22.3% 22.3% 0 bps PAT 796 798 0.2% 894 900 0.6% PAT Margin 14.7% 14.7% 1 bps 13.9% 14.0% 6 bps EPS 26 26.1 0.2% 29.2 29.4 0.7% All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs. How does our 3 year Outlook change? The company in focussed on increasing its revenue from the EGR and Turbocharger space, backed by new platforms and projects it is working on with clients. Mgmt. expects these applications to contribute ~50% of volumes over the next 3-5 years. We believe that the low cost mfg. set up, backed by technical know-how and increasing penetration of the applications could see the above target being met. Expect margins to be under pressure on the back of intense cost cutting pressures exerted by customers, which would only be partially offset by IGM’s cost cutting and value engineering efforts. 8th August 2016 Bloomberg IGM IN Shares o/s 30.6mn Market Cap Rs. 21bn 52-wk High-Low Rs. 747-372 3m Avg. Daily Vol Rs. 51mn Index BSE Small Cap 1QFY17 Update Promoters 75 % Institutions and Public 25 % 1m 3m 12m IGM -2% 4% -7% Sensex 4% 11% -1% BSE Auto 10% 19% 10% MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041 RAMAKRISHNAN SESHAN [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020

Transcript of Igarashi Motors CMP Target Rating - Spark...

Page 1: Igarashi Motors CMP Target Rating - Spark Capitalmailers.sparkcapital.in/uploads/Mukesh/Igarashi... · 8th August 2016 Bloomberg IGM IN Shares o/s 30.6mn Market Cap Rs. 21bn 52-wk

Page 1

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY

Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),

Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset

Rating: ◄► Target price: ◄► EPS: ◄►

How does our one year outlook change?

We reaffirm our positive stance on Igarashi Motors (IGM) basis our belief that

belief that the penetration of the Torque Actuator Motor applications

constituting IGM’s product portfolio (Electronic Throttle Control, Exhaust Gas

Recirculation and Turbochargers) will increase manifold over the medium

term as PV OEMS increasingly turn towards power electronics as a panacea

to achieve adherence to strict CO2 and fuel economy regulations coming into

force. Our belief is further reinforced by IGM’s increasing presence in new

vehicle platforms deploying the aforesaid technologies, which also enhances

the visibility/certainty of revenue. We value the stock at Rs. 750, basis 25x

FY18 EPS

IGM is now increasingly focused on expanding its presence in the EGR and

Turbocharger applications, which currently account for only ~10-15% of its

revenue, tail coating on orders from anchor customers as also new orders on

the anvil for these applications.

IGM registered a YoY revenue growth of 15% in 1QFY17, with volume

growth of ~17%, with realizations coming off as guided. Expect revenue to

grow at CAGR of ~20% through FY16-FY18, led by increase in volumes.

EBITDA margin for the quarter came in at 24.4%, a QoQ growth of ~85bps,

constrained by increase in material costs by ~225bps and employee costs by

~50bps. The same was offset by the decline in other expenses by ~190bps

QoQ.. Expect EBITDA margin to come in at ~ 23.8% and ~ 22.3% in

FY17/FY18, led by commodity price pressures.

IGM’s project specific capacity additions are expected to continue at ~6.5% -

7% of the revenue over FY17/FY18. Expect capex of ~Rs. 800mn over FY17

and FY18. Financial summary

Year Revenues

(Rs. mn)

EBITDA

(%)

Adj .PAT

(Rs. mn)

Adj EPS

(Rs.) P/E(x)

EV/EBITDA

(x)

FY15 4,450 24.1% 636 20.8 32.5 18.6

FY16 5,430 23.8% 798 26.1 26.0 15.1

FY17E 6,443 22.3% 900 29.4 23.0 14.4

FY18E 4,450 24.1% 636 20.8 32.5 18.6

Key estimate revision

FY17E FY18E

Old New Change Old New Change

Revenue 5,423 5,430 0.1% 6,432 6,443 0.2%

EBITDA 1,288 1,290 0.2% 1,431 1,434 0.2%

Margin (%) 23.8% 23.8% 1 bps 22.3% 22.3% 0 bps

PAT 796 798 0.2% 894 900 0.6%

PAT Margin 14.7% 14.7% 1 bps 13.9% 14.0% 6 bps

EPS 26 26.1 0.2% 29.2 29.4 0.7%

All figures in Rs. mn, except EPS, which is in Rs.

How does our 3 year Outlook change?

The company in focussed on increasing its revenue from the EGR and

Turbocharger space, backed by new platforms and projects it is working on

with clients. Mgmt. expects these applications to contribute ~50% of

volumes over the next 3-5 years. We believe that the low cost mfg. set up,

backed by technical know-how and increasing penetration of the

applications could see the above target being met.

Expect margins to be under pressure on the back of intense cost cutting

pressures exerted by customers, which would only be partially offset by

IGM’s cost cutting and value engineering efforts.

8th August 2016

Bloomberg IGM IN

Shares o/s 30.6mn

Market Cap Rs. 21bn

52-wk High-Low Rs. 747-372

3m Avg. Daily Vol Rs. 51mn

Index BSE Small Cap

1QFY17 Update

Promoters 75 %

Institutions and Public 25 %

1m 3m 12m

IGM -2% 4% -7%

Sensex 4% 11% -1%

BSE Auto 10% 19% 10%

MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041

RAMAKRISHNAN SESHAN [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020

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Page 2

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY Quarterly Financial Results

Quarterly Financial Results

Rs. mn\Period Jun-16 Jun-15 YoY Growth Mar-16 QoQ Growth

Revenues 1,254 1,087 15.4% 1,266 -1.0%

Raw materials 747 676 10.5% 726 2.9%

Employee cost 96 75 27.6% 90 6.1%

Other expenditure 106 83 27.3% 131 -19.2%

Total Operating Cost 948 834 13.7% 947 -10.7%

EBITDA 306 253 20.9% 319 0.4%

EBITDA margins 24.4% 23.3% 111bps 25.2% -86 bps

Depreciation 43 46 -5.7% 52 -1.9%

Other income 39 50 -21.5% 25 5.7%

EBIT 302 257 17.4% 293 1.3%

Interest 13 17 -22.5% 10 36.0%

Extra Ordinary Gain/ Exp - - - - -

PBT 288 240 20.2% 283 -9.9%

Tax 99 84 17.7% 98 6.4%

Effective tax rate 34.2% 34.9% -74 bps 34.5% -36 bps

PAT 190 156 21.6% 186 -16.9%

Adj PAT 190 156 21.6% 186 -6.6%

PAT margin 15.1% 14.4% 77 bps 14.7% 49 bps

EPS (Rs. ) 6.2 5.1 21.6% 6.1 -6.6%

IGM reported ~15% growth in 1QFY17 on a strong base

(revenue growth of ~21% YoY in 1QFY16), led by a 17%

growth in volumes.

Revenue growth was partially impacted impaired by decline

in realisations as guided

Gross margin at ~40.4% contracted ~225bps QoQ, but

registered a ~260bps improvement YoY

However, decline in other expenses QoQ partially offset the

impact of the above, leading to margins contracting by only

~85bps QOQ.

Tax rate for the quarter declined marginally to 34.2%,

compared to 34.5% in 1QFY16

PAT growth was also aided by the 6% YoY growth in other

income for the quarter

Reported PAT for the quarter came in at Rs. 190mn, a YoY

growth of 22%

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Page 3

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY

Exports continue to be concentrated towards EU and USA

Source: Company, Spark Capital Research

The following are the key takeaways from the FY16 annual report of Igarashi Motors’ (IGM)

Sustained positivity in management commentary with respect to new business wins and revenue visibility: The management continues to strike a

positive note on the revenue visibility and growth corroborated by increasing presence in new vehicle platforms and order wins. The management also

remains confident of the increasing penetration of applications for which it manufactures motors ned by increasingly stringent emission and fuel efficiency

norms.

New inductions to the board of directors: During the year, Mr. Akhil Awasthi and Mrs. Mrs. Eva Maria Rosa Schork have been inducted in the board as

Non-Executive Non-Independent directors. Mr. Awasthi who has two decades of experience in Financial Services sector, and also one of the founding

members of Barings India Private Equity and ITI Pioneer AMC (now Franklin Templeton). Mrs. Schork was the Managing Director of Igarashi Motoren

GmbH, Germany for the past two decades. She has been working almost three decades in specific areas of motors business development, application

engineering, customer relationship and organisation building. We believe that these two additions would serve to further strengthen the board considerably.

Continued focus on improving operational efficiencies and value engineering to continue to aid margin: While the bulk of the improvement in

EBITDA margin for FY16 was led by improvement in gross margin, the company continues to focus on improving operational efficiencies. We believe that

even in the event of the commodity cycle turning, the same would continue to lend support to the margins of the company.

Steep improvement cash flow from operations in FY16: While other items of working capital remained largely stable, the reduction in loans and

advances led to a steep improvement in working capital and cash flows in FY16. The same was led by a repayment of ICDs by Agile Electric amounting to

Rs. 580mn during the year.

46% 36%

28% 44%

39%

30% 44% 28%

15%

34% 28% 28%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

US Europe Asia

Break down of revenue

% of

FY16

revenue

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

CAGR

(FY12-

FY16)

Details of finished goods sold

Exports 89.6% 2,462 3,215 3,532 3,989 19.0%

YoY growth (%) 24.0% 30.6% 9.9% 12.9%

Deemed Exports 6.8% 161 142 177 302 -1.5%

YoY growth (%) -50.0% -11.7% 25.1% 70.1%

Domestic Sales (net of excise

duty) 3.6% 285 256 142 160 -19.4%

YoY growth (%) -24.6% -10.3% -44.6% 12.6%

Total 100% 2,908 3,612 3,851 4,450 13.5%

8.3% 24.2% 6.6% 15.6%

Source: Company, Spark Capital Research

Takeaways from the Annual Report for FY16

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Page 4

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY

Non Executive directors remuneration details

Name of Director / KMP and

Designation Designation Brief background

Mr. K.K. Nohria Non Executive

Independent

Mr. Nohria served as Managing Director of Crompton Greaves Ltd. since 1985. He has over 50 years experience in Electrical &

Electronics Industry. He has held senior management positions at multiple organisation including Maini Precision Products,

CoreEL Technologies, and CTR Mfg Industries. He graduated in Electrical Engg from BHU (Benaras Hindu University) in 1954

and studied post graduation and Management studies at Manchester Technical College, UK. Mr. Nohria was awarded an

Honorary D. Litt Degree from Benares Hindu University in 2001.

Mr. P. Mukund Managing Director,

Promoter Executive

Mr. Mukund has over three decades of experience in Project Management and Manufacturing Engineering related to electric

motors. He has been working with the company since inception and has been Managing Director of the Company since February,

1999. He graduated with Mechanical Engineering degree and has a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Management from XLRI,

Mr. Hemant Nerurkar Non-Executive

Independent

Mr. Nerurkar has over 35 years of experience in steel industry in various functions. He is an Executive with multifaceted

experience ranging from project execution, manufacturing, Quality Control, Supply Chain, Marketing. He joined Tata Steel in

1972. He served as the Managing Director, In Charge of India and Southeast Asia Operations of Tata Steel Limited from October

10, 2009 to October 31, 2013 and as its Executive Director of India & South East Asia from April 9, 2009 to October 31, 2013. He

served as the Chief Operating Officer Tata Steel Limited, India from September 1, 2007 to 2010. He is the Chairman and Director

of TRL Krosaki Refractories Ltd.

Mr. S. Radhakrishnan Non-Executive

Independent

Mr. Radhakrishnan has about three decades of diversified experience in multiple fields with specialization in Global Sourcing,

Business Development, Procurement, and Quality Assurance. He is a graduate in Mechanical Engineering from University of

Madras with Specialization in Industrial Engineering & Welding Technology. Mr. Radhakrishnan was previously employed as a

Managing Director by Nelcast Ltd. and Senior Director by Meritor, Inc.

Mr. Keiichi Igarashi

Promoter, Non-

Executive Non-

Independent

Mr. Igarashi has over two decades of experience wherein he worked intensely in the Quality Management in Matsushita, Japan

before moving to Igarashi, China. He is the Managing Director of Igarashi Japan & China and is responsible for Globalising

Igarashi to the next level. He holds a Technical degree from Japan and is the President of Igarashi, Global.

Mr, Akhil Awasthi (from Jan’16) Non-Executive Non-

Independent

Mr. Awasthi has over two decades of experience in Financial Services sector. He was one of the founding members of Barings

India Private Equity and ITI Pioneer AMC (now Franklin Templeton). Prior to entering the investment business, Akhil worked in

corporate banking with ANZ Grindlays Bank. He holds a BE from Jiwaji University and an MBA from University of Delhi. He

completed the prestigious Advanced Management Program at Harvard Business School in 2009.

Mrs. Eva Maria Rosa Schork (from

Jan’16)

Non-Executive Non-

Independent

Ms. Eva Maria Rosa Schork was the Managing Director of Igarashi Motoren GmbH, Germany for the past two decades. She has

been working almost three decades in specific areas of motors business development, application engineering, customer

relationship and organisation building. She has been involved with the global automotive industry and has been part of the new

program development process across wide range of electric motor programs. After completing her graduation with specialisation

in Business Management and Economics, she joined her family business where she gained deep technical experience on

electrical motors for applications in automotive and appliance & office equipment application.

Mr. Amit Dixit (Till Jul’15) Non-Executive Non-

Independent

Profile of the Board - The Board saw two important additions in FY16

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Page 5

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY

FY15 FY16

Between 2014~16 your company launched the engineering and

developmental activities on several projects with key customers and these

projects will start adding to your company’s revenue from calendar year 2016

onwards.

Over the past 3 years, signifi cant engineering investments together with new

customer programs have been initiated and three key projects will be

launched in calendar year 2016.

While noteworthy focus was accorded to new program development, the

Company embarked on strong operational improvement measures which

have substantially contributed to quality, productivity and innovation, which

are refl ected in the improved growth and profi tabilit

Deploying the dual levers of growth by increasing the new products and

strengthening the operational efficiencies continuously, the Company

expects to continue progressing on both the paths of growth and profi tability.

With the clear demonstration of being a Full Service Electric Motor Supplier

to the Power Train Actuator application, our Technology desk is now

reviewing new applications such as Motors for Automated Manual

Transmission(AMT), Active Accelerator Pedal Module (APM), Electric

Parking Brake(EPB) & Motor assemblies for Fuel pump .

Trend in Technology movement of Motors is also being studied carefully and

a visible trend of growth in Brushless DC Motors is observed. We are

launching Pilot programs in this space to be prepared for the future.

In the year 2015-16, the Company saw a better growth in volumes

compared to the previous years due to the new programs /new market

launches.

New customers and new programs with existing customers will

continue to remain active. During the year, two new platforms with

leading Tier-1 players were launched and growth in volumes due to

these expected from calendar Year 2017.

Foot prints have been laid on two more platform programs for

validation in calendar year 2016 which will add to the volumes from

calendar year 2018.

Traction for volumes combined with higher performance and lower cost

are clearly visible from all leading Tier-1s with strong emphasis on

quality.

Increasing offerings of new products with platform concepts in mind

and strengthening the operational effi ciencies will continue to be key

drivers to target higher growth rates in volumes in the forward years

Commentary on new business wins and revenue visibility continues to be bullish

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Page 6

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY

Softening commodity prices and the consequent reduction in RM costs was primarily drive of gross margin improvement in FY16

Source: Company, Spark Capital Research

24.1% 3 bps

- 71 bps

20.5%

420 bps

2015 EBITDA % Delta in raw material costs % Delta in employee costs % Delta in other expenses % 2016 EBITDA %

Favourably impacted by soft

commodity prices and value

engineering efforts of the

company

Increase in other expenses as % of revenue was led by increased in selling and

forwarding expenses, professional expenses and repairs. The same was partially

offset by the reduction in travelling expenses and quality costs.

FY16 margin favorably impacted by improved gross margin

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Page 7

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY Analysis of employee costs and other expenses

The impact of Increase in selling and forwarding expenses, professional expenses and repairs was partially offset by the reduction in travelling

expenses and quality costs

Break down of employee costs and other expenses FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 Variance

Employee costs 277 318 7.19% 7.16% -3 bps

Power costs 48 55 1.2% 1.2% 1 bps

Repairs 87 110 2.3% 2.5% 21 bps

Rent 23 24 0.6% 0.5% -8 bps

Rates, taxes and fees 2 4 0.1% 0.1% 2 bps

Insurance 5 4 0.1% 0.1% -2 bps

Travel and conveyance 48 45 1.2% 1.0% -22 bps

Communication expenses 2 5 0.1% 0.1% 5 bps

Recruitment and training 6 5 0.2% 0.1% -4 bps

Printing and stationery 4 5 0.1% 0.1% 1 bps

Bank charges 13 13 0.3% 0.3% -7 bps

Professional charges 16 28 0.4% 0.6% 19 bps

Selling and forwarding expenses 26 50 0.7% 1.1% 44 bps

Loss on sale of fixed assets (net) 0 1 0.0% 0.0% 0 bps

Exchange loss (net) - 0.0% 0.0% 0 bps

Quality cost 19 18 0.5% 0.4% -10 bps

Miscellaneous expenses 24 40 0.6% 0.9% 29 bps

Total 601 725 15.6% 16.3% 67 bps

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Page 8

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY

Improvement in WC days led by increase in payable days and other liabilities

Source: Company, Spark Capital Research

77 69 73 70 27 25 31 28 34 77 84 34 55 43 64 55 19 36 51 45

64

93

73

31

-

20

40

60

80

100

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Debtor days Inventory days Loans and Advances

Creditor and payables days Provisions days Net working capital

While the major items of

working capital have

remained largely stable in

FY16 (YoY), there has a steep

reduction in the Loans and

advances on the abck of

repayment of ICDs by Agile

Electric.

The same has also

favourably impacted the CFO

for FY16

CFO exhibited a strong improvement led by reduction in NWC days

Source: Company, Spark Capital Research

594 451 591 636 283 141 205 416 310 311 386 220

64

93

73

31

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

CFO (Rs. Mn) Capex (Rs. Mn) FCFF (Rs. Mn) NWC Days

Improvement in WC days contributed to Improvement in CFOs

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Page 9

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY

Related Party Transactions

Purchase of Goods FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Igarashi Electric Works, Japan - - - 29.9

Agile Electric 359.2 516.6 499.1 540.7

Fellow Subsidiaries - - - 0.1

Sale of Goods

Agile Electric 246.0 223.2 217.4 338.6

Fellow Subsidiaries - - - 2,480.9

Services received

Agile Electric 1.4 15.6 6.2 -

Purchase of FA

Agile Electric 111.3 67.1 51.9 19.2

Sale of FA

Agile Electric 31.8 0.1 0.8 -

Receipt of Inter corporate

Agile Electric 23.0 24.0 - 580.0

ICD given

Agile Electric 205.0 422.0 - -

Interest income on Inter

Agile Electric 11.1 46.8 60.9 53.2

Reimbursement of expenses from

Agile Electric 7.6 9.2 2.3 2.4

Reimbursement of expenses to

Agile Electric 5.0 9.7 - -

Cost of services charged to

Agile Electric 22.7 20.1 20.4 14.1

Advance received

Fellow Subs - - - 5.2

Discount recd

Agile Electric - - - 4.0

IGM has always

routed its sales

through its sales

offices abroad

which are entities

of the Igarashi

Group.

The change in

ownership in the

recent past has

affected the

classification of

entities as related

parties.

Hence, optically,

there are no sales

to Fellow

subsidiaries from

FY13-FY15.

Related party transactions : Repayment of ICDs by Agile a key highlight

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Page 10

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY Financial Summary

IGM Key metrics

Rs. mn FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Profit & Loss Growth ratios

Revenues 3,851 4,450 5,430 6,443 Revenues 6.6% 15.6% 22.0% 18.7%

Manufacturing & Other Expenses 3,060 3,380 4,140 5,009 EBITDA 17.7% 35.4% 20.6% 11.1%

EBITDA 790 1,070 1,290 1,434 PAT 6.1% 30.0% 25.3% 12.8%

Depreciation 188 190 205 228 Margins

EBIT 602 881 1,085 1,206 EBITDA 20.5% 24.1% 23.8% 22.3%

Net Interest Exp / (inc) 57 50 24 2 EBIT 15.6% 19.8% 20.0% 18.7%

Profit Before Tax 716 974 1,213 1,367 PAT 12.7% 14.3% 14.7% 14.0%

Tax 227 337 415 468 Leverage & WC ratios

Net Profit 490 636 798 900 Debt to equity (x) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.0

Balance Sheet (Rs. mn) Current ratio (x) 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4

Shareholders Equity 2,510 2,944 3,503 4,132 Debtor days (Sales) 73 70 70 70

Loan funds 576 441 56 -14 Inventory days (Sales) 31 28 28 28

Sources of funds 3,175 3,477 3,650 4,210 Creditor Days (Sales) 64 55 55 55

Net block 1,223 1,378 1,525 1,716 Performance & turnover ratios

Investments 261 337 337 337 RoACE 13.8% 17.3% 20.0% 20.2%

Capital WIP 0 117 0 0 RoAE 20.8% 23.3% 24.7% 23.6%

Current assets, loans & advances 2,922 2,879 3,242 3,831 Total asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2

Current liabilities & provisions 1,230 1,235 1,454 1,674 Fixed asset turnover (x) 1.79 1.86 1.98 2.06

Net Current Assets 1,691 1,645 1,788 2,157 Valuation metrics

Application of funds 3,175 3,477 3,650 4,210 Current price (Rs.)

Cash Flows (Rs. mn) Shares outstanding (mn) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6

Cash flows from operations 591 636 830 948 Market capitalisation (Rs. mn) 20,707 20,707 20,707 20,707

Capex -205 -416 -236 -419 Enterprise value (Rs. mn) 20,372 19,888 19,496 20,707

Free Cash Flow 386 220 594 530 EV/EBIDTA (x) 25.8 18.6 15.1 14.4

Cash flows from investments -142 202 -236 -419 Adj. Per-share earnings (Rs.) 16.0 20.8 26.1 29.4

Cash flows from financing -61 -495 -588 -309 Price-earnings multiple (x) 42.3 32.5 26.0 23.0

Cash & Cash equivalents 755 1,099 1,266 1,487 Dividend yield (%) 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1%

677

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Page 11

Igarashi Motors – Crystal Ball Gazing

Strong growth to

sustain multiples

EBITDA growth to

mirror revenue

growth; to be aided

by improving

product mix

Revenue CAGR of

20% from FY16 to

FY20

Rs. Mn FY11 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E

Revenue 1,972 3,851 4,450 5,430 6,443 7,667 9,124 ▲

FY11 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E

EBITDA

(Rs.mn) 272 790 1,070 1,290 1,434 1,740 2,117 ▲

EBITDA

Margin(%) 13.8% 20.5% 24.1% 23.8% 22.3% 22.7% 23.2% ▲

Entry = Rs. 677 (23x

FY18 EPS)

Cumulative Dividends of

Rs. 33.5

Exit at Rs. 1097

(25.3x FY20

EPS)

TOTAL RETURN OF 67%

IMIL with a significant

global market share in the

TAM market, stellar

clientele, technical know

how and a meaningful cost

arbitrage, is expected to be

a significant beneficiary of

the rapid growth in the

TAM market.

Improving quality of

growth, with increasing

diversification of product

profile in favour of higher

margin products,

combined with continued

benefits of backward

integration is expected to

enable maintenance of

margin even in the face of

relentless cost pressures

from OEMs/Tier 1 suppliers

FY11-16E CAGR %

Revenue EBITDA PAT Price

17.7% 31.5% 53.0% 57.0% IMIL Crystal Ball Gazing

Trading History – % of times stock traded

PE

range

<16x 16x-

18x

18x-

20x

20x-

22x

22x-

24x

24x-

26x >26x

15% 8% 11% 19% 28% 11% 8%

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Page 12

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY Spark Disclaimer

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Absolute Rating Interpretation

BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon

ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% – <15% over a 1-year horizon

REDUCE Stock expected to provide returns of <5% – -10% over a 1-year horizon

SELL Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon

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0

200

400

600

800

Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

Rs.

Price Target

Igarashi Motors India – 3 Year Price and Rating History Report Date Price Target Reco.

21/Jun/16 647 745 Buy

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Page 13

Igarashi Motors CMP

Rs. 677

Target

Rs. 750

Rating

BUY Disclaimer (Cont’d)

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Yes/No

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