MM Forgings CMP - Spark Capitalmailers.sparkcapital.in/uploads/Mukesh/MM Forgings.pdf · MUKESH...

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

Stock Performance (%)

1m 3m 12m

MMFG -8% -6% 223%

Sensex -1% 1% 10%

BSE Auto -2% -1% 22%

Financial Summary

Year Revenues (Rs. mn) EBITDA (Rs. mn) EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT (Rs. mn) Adj. EPS (Rs.) P/E(x) EV/EBITDA(x)

FY15 5,025 1,108 22.0% 505 41.9 14.3 7.5

FY16E 5,685 1,165 20.5% 517 42.8 14.0 7.2

FY17E 6,770 1,388 20.5% 637 52.8 11.4 6.1

Date July 1, 2015

Market Data

SENSEX 27645

Nifty 8318

Bloomberg MMFG IN

Shares o/s 12mn

Market Cap Rs. 7bn

52-wk High-Low Rs. 751-215

3m Avg. Daily Vol Rs. 13mn

Latest shareholding (%)

Promoters 56.4

Institutions 10.5

Public 33.1

Company Update MM Forgings (MMFL) is one of the key players in Indian forging industry with ~66% of revenues coming from

exports. The company generates ~75% of revenues from CVs and PVs and has a equal split between India, North

America and Europe. Exports have been the key growth driver with a CAGR of 17% in the last 7 years vs.

domestic CAGR of 10%. In each of the years where MMFL has expanded production capacity (by adding a higher

tonne press), the average realization per ton (MT) has seen a significant jump (slide 6). In FY17, MMFL plans to

introduce an 8,000 MT press, we expect this to further provide a jump in realization and revenue.

Capacity expansion with higher MT press: MMFL has increased its capacity from 15,000 MT in FY00 to 45,000 MT in

FY15 and is further expected to improve to 65,000 MT in FY17. Currently the company has forging press in the range of

1,600 MT to 4,000 MT and in FY17 they will add an 8,000 MT press. The product range currently varies between 0.2kg to

60kg, the new press could enable MMFL to improve upped end of the range to ~90kg. However, given that there is a ~30%

jump in capacity by way of the 8,000 MT press, we expect a substantial increase in average weight of production. This can

substantially improve realisation and margins. In the last 15 years, we have seen a steep increase in capacity in FY01,

FY05 and FY09. In each of these years, there was a steep jump in average realisation per MT of sales resulting in an

realisation CAGR of ~7% in the last 10 years.

Domestic and North American CVs to be key drivers: We expect domestic CVs (~20% of revenue) to see a steep

recovery given the low base and the expected improvement in infra and manufacturing. Similarly, domestic PVs (~4% of

revenues) are expected to see an improvement, recording double digit growth, driven by new launches and urban recovery.

North American CV segment (~20% of revenue) has seen ~20% production growth in the last 12m and the average net

orders (leading indicator for next two quarters) in the last 6 months has been higher than current production levels.

European CVs remain subdued as HCV registrations on an average have remained flat in the last six months.

Steep improvement witnessed in EBITDA margins: EBITDA margins have seen a steady improvement in line with

revenue and realizations. We do not expect an improvement in the next two years, however expect a 150bps drop in

FY16/17 on the back of Euro depreciation and start-up costs associated with the new press. Power cost as a % of sales

was ~11% in FY14, however, adjusted for income from sale of solar and wind power generated to the grid, the cost comes

down to ~8.5% (22mn units generated from solar and wind as against total requirement of 43mn).

Financials & Valuation: We expect a 16% revenue CAGR from FY15-FY17, driven primarily by domestic and North

American CV volumes. EBITDA margin is expected to drop to 20.5% resulting in PAT CAGR of 12%. Currently the stock

trades at 11.4x FY17 EPS, we believe that the risk-reward is favorable given our conservative estimates.

MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041

ROHIT KRISHNA [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020 Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),

Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset

Stepping into the big league

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

Corporate Factsheet

Promoter Background

MM Forgings, started initially in 1946 as ‘Madras Motors Limited’ which was a Royal Enfield dealership. Later, in 1974,

promoter, Mr. E.S. Krishnan forayed into the forging business with an initial capacity of 780MT per annum. As the forging

business grew, the dealership was closed in 1990.

Business

The company primarily caters to the heavy commercial vehicle and passenger car segment. Company manufactures steel

forgings in raw, semi-machined and fully machined stages in various grades of Carbon, Alloy, Micro-Alloy and Stainless Steels

in the weight range of 0.20 Kg to 60 Kg.

Management

Mr. Vidyashankar Krishnan – Vice Chairman and Managing Director – He is a post graduate from IIT, Madras and has

over twenty years of experience in the forging industry. He became the managing director of the company in 1999 and was

made the vice chairman in 2012.

Mr. K. Venkataraman – Joint Managing Director – He is a engineering graduate with more than two decades of experience

in the forging industry. He was appointed as the joint managing director in 1999. He serves on various committees in the

Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Commerce.

Presence The company has four manufacturing facilities in Tamil Nadu.

Corporate Structure The promoters’ stake in MM Forgings is 56.4%.

Revenue Model The company derived 63% of its revenue in FY15 from the heavy commercial vehicle segment, 13% from Passenger car

segment and 12% each from off-highway and oil field segments.

Key Success Factors Timely expansion of facilities, long standing relationship with OEMs and control over power costs (through solar and wind)

Corporate Bankers State Bank of Travancore, State Bank of India, DBS, Citibank

Auditors G. Ramesh Kumar & Co, Tamil Nadu

Credit Rating Care A1

Corporate Office Guindy, Chennai

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

Raw, semi-machined and fully machined products with weight

ranging from 0.2 Kg to 60 Kg

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Factories located in Tamil Nadu

Manufacturing facilities, solar and wind power plants located in TN


Singampunari

Viralimalai

Chennai

Sriperumbudur

Karanaithangal

Kancheepuram

Panakudi, Tirunelveli District

Meenakshipuram, Theni District

Kulasekharamangalam,

Sankaran Koil taluk

Bommakkotai/ Kalayar Karisalkulam

Village, Aruppukottai

Factory

Wind-farm

Solar-farm

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

Share of exports has seen a 10ppt growth in the last ten years


~65% from CV and India, Europe and US contribute equally (FY15)


Domestic revenue moves in tandem with CV and PV markets


Primarily caters to CV and Tractor markets

CV 64%

PV 12%

Off-highway

14%

Oil fields/ valve 10% India

34%

US 33%

Europe 33%

US CV market remains strong; Europe yet to recover

Source: Bloomberg, Spark Capital

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

FY

00

FY

01

FY

02

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

MHCV yoy % PC yoy % Domestic Revenue yoy %

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

FY

01

FY

02

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

Exports % of Revenue

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Euro CV yoy % US CV yoy % Exports growth yoy %

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

EU CV: Volumes yet to show sustained signs of recovery


US CV: Strong production growth in the US CV market for last 12

months


India CV: MHCV volumes have picked up on a low base in FY15,

expected to record double digit growth in FY16

Source: SIAM, Spark Capital

0 5000

10000 15000 20000

25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 US HCV truck industry demand determined by a

monthly survey of truck OEMs; usually lags sales by one to two quarters

Net Orders

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

May-1

2

Jul-12

Sep-1

2

Nov-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar-

13

May-1

3

Jul-13

Sep-1

3

Nov-1

3

Jan-1

4

Mar-

14

May-1

4

Jul-14

Sep-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar-

15

Th

ousands

Production Production yoy%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10

20

30

Jul-10

Oct-

10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-12

Oct-

12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-13

Oct-

13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct-

14

Jan-1

5

Apr-

15

Th

ousands

EU HCV Volumes YoY Growth

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-13

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan-1

4

Fe

b-1

4

Mar-

14

Apr-

14

May-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-14

Aug-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Fe

b-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

MHCV Growth yoy %

Outlook for Commercial Vehicle Industry

US CV: Average net orders has remained high indicating strong

demand, therefore growth expected to continue


MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

MM Forgings Vs. Bharat Forge

Source: SIAM, Spark Capital

When utilization reaches 60%, capacity is expanded


Average realization has increased ~6% per annum in the last 20 years


Realization to increase as new press shop becomes operational

0%

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0

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FY

12E

FY

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FY

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FY

15E

Installed Capacity MT Capacity Utilization %

38%

higher

-20%

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1,00,000

1,20,000

1,40,000

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FY

95

FY

96

FY

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FY

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FY

99

FY

00

FY

01

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FY

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FY

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07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12E

FY

13E

FY

14E

FY

15E

Average realization per MT Growth in Realization %

Growth in Capacity %

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

MM Forging Bharat Forge

Realization per MT

Realization increased sharply

whenever capacity has been

expanded (FY01, FY03 and

FY09)

When capacity is expanded

usually bigger forging

machines are installed and

therefore the weight per

product increases, thereby

leading to better realization

Capacity has been expanded

as utilization reaches 60%;

maximum possible utilization is

80%, usage beyond can

reduce the life of the machine

Current capacity is 45,000 MT

and it shall be increased to

65,000 MT in the next two

years

8000 tonne press shop would

be installed with ability to forge

products in the range of 20 to

90 Kgs

Average Realization of Bharat

Forge ~38% higher than MM

Forgings driven by

1) Bigger press shops – 16,000

tonne vs. 4,000 for MM Forgings

2) Higher share of machining –

50% vs. 15%

3) Higher share of revenue from

non-auto segments

4) Participation in developing the

product, more spend on R&D

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

13% 13% 15%

40% 40% 37%

12% 15% 13% 8% 8% 8%

27% 25% 27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY12 FY13 FY14 Consumption of stores Power and fuel

Repairs Freight

Other

Income from sale of wind and solar reduces power cost


EBITDA margin has moved more or less in

line with revenue growth

Source: Company, SIAM, Spark Capital

Power and fuel cost contribute the most in

‘other expenditure’


Pass-through of steel prices; control over power costs

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

FY

00

FY

01

FY

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FY

03

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FY

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FY

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FY

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FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

Revenue yoy % EBITDA %

Steel price has been predominantly passed

through to the customer

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Spark Capital

Company has three wind farms and one

solar power plant in Tamil Nadu. About

~50% of the overall power requirement

is met from these sources.

Company has increased capacity of

renewable power in line with the

increase in total requirement; expect it to

go up in the next two years as well.

Company saves about 250bps on net

sales, from generating power through

solar and wind.

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

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FY

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11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

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FY

15

Steel price yoy (%) Gross Margin (RHS)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Income from Wind and Solar (Sale of power to Grid) Total Power cost Power cost % to Net Sales Power cost % to Net Sales (adj. for sale of power)

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

Bharat Forge leads the pack ,possibly driven by higher share of

machining and non-auto


MM Forgings did not witness de-growth while others did in FY13


Fixed asset turnover is lower for MM forgings on the back of solar

and wind capacities, excluding this it can be 1.5 times


Financial metrics compares well with that of peers

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

FY12 FY13 FY14

Fixed Asset Turnover (x)

BHFC Standalone MM Forging Ramkrishna

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Revenue Growth (%)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

EBITDA Margin (%)


Share of exports is highest for MM forgings


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

FY12 FY13 FY14

Share of exports in Revenue (%)


MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600 Valuation Summary

RoNW comparable to that of Bharat Forge


RoCE comparable to that of Bharat Forge


MM Forgings Fwd PE


Bharat Forge Fwd PE (Consolidated)


8x

13x

18x

23x

28x

33x

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Jun-0

9

Sep-0

9

Dec-0

9

Mar-

10

Jun-1

0

Sep-1

0

Dec-1

0

Mar-

11

Jun-1

1

Sep-1

1

Dec-1

1

Mar-

12

Jun-1

2

Sep-1

2

Dec-1

2

Mar-

13

Jun-1

3

Sep-1

3

Dec-1

3

Mar-

14

Jun-1

4

Sep-1

4

Dec-1

4

Mar-

15

Jun-1

5

CM

P (

Rs.)

5x

7x

9x

11x

13x

15x

0

100

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900

Apr-

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Jul-09

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09

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0

Apr-

10

Jul-10

Oct-

10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct-

11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-12

Oct-

12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-13

Oct-

13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct-

14

Jan-1

5

Apr-

15

CM

P (

Rs.)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

RoCE (%)

BHFC Standalone MM Forging

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

RoNW (%)

BHFC Standalone MM Forging

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600

Financial Summary

Abridged Financial Statements Key metrics

Rs. mn FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Profit & Loss Growth ratios

Revenues 4,114 5,025 5,685 6,770 Revenues 13.9% 22.1% 13.1% 19.1%

Manufacturing & Other Expenses 3,325 3,918 4,519 5,382 EBITDA 36.6% 40.3% 5.2% 19.1%

EBITDA 789 1,108 1,165 1,388 PAT 20.0% 72.3% 2.3% 23.2%

Depreciation 360 354 366 429 Margins

EBIT 429 754 800 959 EBITDA 19.2% 22.0% 20.5% 20.5%

Net Interest Exp / (inc) 77 91 88 78 EBIT 10.4% 15.0% 14.1% 14.2%

Profit Before Tax 384 686 739 910 PAT 7.1% 10.1% 9.1% 9.4%

Tax 91 181 222 273 Leverage & WC ratios

Net Profit 293 505 517 637 Debt to equity (x) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5

Balance Sheet (Rs. mn) Current ratio (x) 8.9 4.5 4.7 4.9

Shareholders Equity 1,958 2,379 2,791 3,298 Debtor days (Sales) 26 22 25 25

Loan funds 1,512 1,902 1,602 1,502 Inventory days (Sales) 69 59 60 65

Sources of funds 3,584 4,404 4,516 4,923 Creditor Days (Sales) 14 21 20 20

Net block 1,997 2,365 2,700 3,070 Performance & turnover ratios

Investments 1 1 1 1 RoACE 9.5% 13.9% 12.6% 14.2%

Capital WIP 67 0 0 0 RoAE 15.9% 23.3% 20.0% 20.9%

Current assets, loans & advances 1,711 2,366 2,171 2,266 Total asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3

Current liabilities & provisions 192 328 356 415 Fixed asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1

Net Current Assets 1,519 2,038 1,815 1,851 Valuation metrics

Application of funds 3,584 4,404 4,516 4,923 Current price (Rs.)

Cash Flows (Rs. mn) Shares outstanding (mn) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1

Cash flows from operations 344 1,209 698 785 Market capitalisation (Rs. mn) 7,242 7,242 7,242 7,242

Capex -560 -722 -700 -800 Enterprise value (Rs. mn) 8,740 8,254 8,361 8,506

Free Cash Flow -216 487 -2 -15 EV/EBIDTA (x) 11.1 7.5 7.2 6.1

Cash flows from investments -398 -722 -700 -800 Adj. Per-share earnings (Rs.) 24.3 41.9 42.8 52.8

Cash flows from financing 59 335 -405 -230 Price-earnings multiple (x) 24.7 14.3 14.0 11.4

Cash & Cash equivalents 8 830 483 238 Dividend yield (%) 0.7% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5%

600

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600 Disclaimer

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have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange/SEBI or any other authorities, nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of

time.

Spark Capital has a subsidiary Spark Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered

with SEBI as Investment Advisor. Spark Capital has also an associate company Spark Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in providing infrastructure

advisory services.

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Absolute

Rating

Interpretation

BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCE Stock expected to provide returns of <5% – -10% over a 1-year

horizon

ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% – <15% over a 1-year

horizon SELL Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon

MM Forgings CMP

Rs. 600 Disclaimer (Cont’d)

Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency,

Spark Capital has incorporated a disclosure of interest statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report:

Disclosure of interest statement Yes/No

Analyst financial interest in the company No

Group/directors ownership of the subject company covered No

Investment banking relationship with the company covered No

Spark Capital’s ownership/any other financial interest in the company covered No

Associates of Spark Capital’s ownership more than 1% in the company covered No

Any other material conflict of interest at the time of publishing the research report No

Receipt of compensation by Spark Capital or its Associate Companies from the subject company covered for in the last twelve months:

Managing/co-managing public offering of securities

Investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services

products or services other than those above

in connection with research report

No

Whether Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company covered No

Whether the Research Analyst or Research Entity has been engaged in market making activity of the Subject Company; No

Analyst Certification of Independence

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research

analyst’s compensations was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in the report.

Additional Disclaimer for US Institutional Investors

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