IEA Technology Roadmap - OECD

© OECD/IEA 2019

IEA Technology Roadmap The global iron and steel sector

Peter Levi, International Energy AgencyOECD Steel Committee, Paris, 22nd March 2019

IEA

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IntroductionBackground and broader context

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The IEA Global Family

The IEA works around the world to support accelerated clean energy transitions with unparalleled data, rigorous analysis and real-world solutions.

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After remaining flat for 3 years, global CO2 emissions rose again in 2017, to an all-time high.

The global climate challenge: Where are we?

Global energy-related CO2 emissions

CO2 emissionsIncrease in 2017

5

10

15

20

25

30

35GtCO2

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A wide variety of technologies are necessary to meet carbon emission reduction goals, notably energy efficiency, renewables and CCUS.

The global climate challenge: Where do we need to go?

0

10

20

30

40

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtCO

2

Efficiency 40%

Renewables 35%

Fuel switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

Contribution of various levers to global cumulative CO2 reductions

Global CO2 reductions by technology area

2 degrees Scenario – 2DS

Reference Technology Scenario – RTS 0 200 400GtCO2 cumulative reductions in 2060

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The IEA tracks the progress of various technologies critical to a successful clean energy transition.

The global climate challenge: How are we doing?

http://www.iea.org/tcep/




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IEA Technology RoadmapsLow-carbon pathways for key technologies

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IEA Technology Roadmaps

2011 2012 2013 2014 20152009 2010 2016 2017

• Since 2009, 22 Technology Roadmaps and How2Guides (33 publications)

• Re-endorsed at G7 Energy Ministerial Meetings in 2016 (Japan) and 2017 (Italy) “(G7 Ministers) welcomed the progress report on the Second Phase of IEA’s Technology Roadmaps, focused on viable and high impact technologies”

• Close engagement with key industry stakeholders

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How do we get there?

• What is the status of the technology today?• What alternative technology options may be available in the long-run? • What data are available, and what data are needed?

• Assessment of technology performance and innovation challenges• Consideration of barriers to market deployment and enabling factors• Evaluation of cost-competitiveness across technology options and routes

PRIORITISING ACTION

• How policies and regulation can support the clean energy transition?• How to accelerate technology adoption with the private sector?• How collaborative mechanisms can boost technology innovation?

Stakeholder Engagement

Context and Analysis

Implementable Pathway

PrioritisingAction

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Industry-related IEA Technology Roadmaps

Global Iron and

Steel

Global Cement update

2009 2013 2018

Global Cement

Regional Cement(India)

Global Chemicals

2019

Status review Cement (India)

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Why steel?

Steel production accounts for around a fifth of industrial energy consumption and about a quarter of direct industrial CO2 emissions.

Note: Data are estimates for 2017; industrial emissions include process emissions

29%

21%

7%4%

4%

35%

Industrial energy consumption

15%

24%

26%2%2%

31%

Industrial emissions

ChemicalsSteelCementPaperAluminiumOther industry

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Regional contexts for “deep-dive” follow-ups

India’s crude steel production is projected to grow by more than 400% between 2015 and 2050, compared to global growth of 30% over the same period.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Index 2015 = 100Regional production projections

China

India

North America

Central & South America

Europe

Africa

Middle East

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Iron and steel sector Technology Roadmap

Aims, scope and methodological overview

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Enabling strategies for sustainable iron and steel production

Sustainable Iron and Steel

Transition

Energy efficiency

Material efficiency

Innovative technologies

Switching to alternative

fuels

System-level sustainable

benefits

Sustainable transition goals:

• Environmental sustainability

• Energy security• Least-cost

transition pathways

• Synergies between Iron and Steel and other sectors

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Enabling strategies for sustainable iron and steel production

Energy efficiency

Source: Gutowski et al. (2013), “The Energy Required to Produce Materials: Constraints on energy-intensity improvements, parameters of demand”, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 371.

Current average

blast furnace

~20 GJ/t crude steel

Practical minimum

energy needs

10.4 GJ/t crude steel

Current state-of-the-art blast

furnaces

12 GJ/t crude steel

Thermodynamic minimum

requirement

9.8 GJ/t crude steel

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Exploring alternative low-CO2 steel technologies


• Upgraded smelting reduction. Maximises the CO2 content of the off-gases through pure oxygen operation, facilitating CO2 capture. Pilot trials currently underway. Avoids the need for coke or sinter. [Large pilot demonstration TRL 6-7]

• Oxy blast furnace and top gas recycle: The CO2 content of the top gas is raised by replacing the air in the blast furnace with oxygen and recycling the top gas. Lowers coke requirements. [Large pilot demonstration TRL 6]

• Upgraded DRI process (based on natural gas) that reuses off-gases from the shaft as a reducing agent after CO2 capture. [Paper studies]

• Coke oven gas (COG) reforming: Increasing the hydrogen concentration of COG through reforming tar to reduce net energy consumption. Through integration with oxy blast furnaces, CO2capture can be added.

• Hydrogen from renewable-electricity for DRI production [Pre-feasibility]

• Direct use of electricity to reduce iron ore relying on renewable electricity. [Intermediate TRLs]

CO2MANAGEMENT

• Hydrogen from renewable-electricity for DRI production [Pre-feasibility]

• Direct use of electricity to reduce iron ore relying on renewable electricity. [Intermediate TRLs]CO2

AVOIDANCE

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Exploring alternative low-CO2 steel technologies

“CCS”

ΣIDERWIN

COURSE50

HYBRIT

SUSSTEEL

GrInHy

H2FUTURE

H2REDUCTION

H2PRODUCTION

ELECTRICITY NOVELFLASHOXIDE

SMELTING

MOLTENOXIDEELEC.SALCOS

CCU/CCUS

CARBON2

CHEM

STEELANOL

BAO-CCU

EOR ON DRI

EOR on

DRI

COURSE50

I&SCCS

HISARNA

Carbon

BIOMASS

BIOMASS

ElectricityHydrogen

Slide content courtesy of the World Steel Association.


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Understanding current and future supply value chains is critical

Source: Cullen et al. (2012), “Mapping the Global Flow of Steel: From Steelmaking to End-Use Goods”, Environ. Sci. Technol. 46, 24, 13048-13055.

Vehicles Material efficiency

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Exploring further sustainability opportunities

Source: Adapted from Tata Steel presentation from kick-off workshop for the IEA Global Iron & Steel Technology Roadmap, 2017

System-level sustainable

benefits

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ETP modelling: the engines behind the analysis

Bottom-up, technology-rich modelling to yield sector-specific insight

End-use sectors Service demands

TIMES modelsIndustry

Long-term simulationBuildings

Mobility Model (MoMo)Transport

Primary energy Conversion sectors Final energy

Electricity

Gasoline

Diesel

Natural gas

Heat

etc.

Passenger mobilityFreight transport

…

Space heatingWater heating

Lighting…

Material demands…

Renewables

Fossil

Nuclear

Electricity T&D

Fuel conversion

Fuel/heat deliveryETP-TIMES Supply model

Electricity and heat generation

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ETP Industry sub-sector model structure

MACRO ECONOMIC INPUTS- GDP projections- Population projections

MARKET DYNAMICS- Bulk material production- Historic dynamics of

material demand

MATERIAL EFFICIENCY STRATEGIES- Post-consumer scrap recycling and

reuse- Manufacturing yield improvement- Clinker substitution

PRODUCTION MODULE

MATERIAL PRODUCTION PROJECTIONSHIGH and LOW demand variants by

SCENARIO

TIMES TECHNOLOGY

MODEL

- Average plant life times- Installed capacities- Actual technology energy

performance- BAT energy performance- CAPEX and fixed OPEX- Energy prices- Feedstock and raw

materials availability- Material yields- CO2 intensity factors- Water use and air

pollution factors

- Energy use (feedstock and fuel)- CO2 emissions (energy and process)- Technology investments- Generation of industrial by-products- Other environmental implications

Scenario results

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Key milestones for the Iron and Steel RoadmapTimeline• Project kick-off – November 2017, Paris• Materials demand trends in Transportation and Construction – March 2018, Paris

• Asian Steel Experts Dialogue – May 2018, Shanghai• American Steel Experts Dialogue – August 2018, São Paulo• Indian Steel Experts Dialogue – February 2019, New Delhi

• Enabling policies and mechanisms workshop – this Friday 29th March, Paris• Modelling and analysis commences – April 2019• Tentative launch – Q4 2019

IEA Technology Roadmap - OECD

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